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College Basketball Betting Trends: Kentucky is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under Calipari

02.12.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
Kentucky at Florida -10 O/U 133.5

Kentucky finds itself a double-digit underdog for tonight's game at Florida – the most points the Wildcats have ever been catching while under John Calipari's watch. Calipari is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS as an underdog dating back to the 2009-10 season.

Kentucky as an underdog under John Calipari
Year
Opponent
Score
Kentucky SU
Kentucky ATS
2013
at Ole Miss
87-74
Win
Win +2.5
2013
at Louisville
77-80
Loss
Win +7
2013
at Notre Dame
50-64
Loss
Loss +1.5
2013
vs. Duke
68-75
Loss
Loss +4.5
2011
vs. Ohio State
62-60
Win
Win +5.5
2011
vs. Florida
70-54
Win
Win +1.5
2011
at Louisville
78-63
Win
Win +3
2011
vs. Washington
74-67
Win
Win +3.5
2010
vs. UConn
64-61
Win
Win +1
Results
 
 
6-3 SU
7-2 ATS





Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Florida Gators




College Basketball Handicapping: Is it smart to foul up three?

02.12.2013     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As a basketball bettor, rarely a week goes by where the issue of whether or not to foul up three comes into question. We've all been there – and certainly remember the times when the team that you wagered on did the opposite of what was needed to cover. Ken Pomeroy ran his numbers and ultimately felt that fouling up three was the WRONG decision.


The fact is, chances of losing are close to remote in either case, but execution errors, an inflated offensive rebounding percentage, poor three-point shooting, and the chance of an extra possession are enough to counteract what might otherwise be the advantage of forcing a team to shoot free throws. In cases where the opponent has multiple good three-point shooters and you have confidence in rebounding a missed free throw, fouling may be the better option. But it appears the default decision should be to not foul.






Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Betting Update: Minnesota's wheels come off again

02.11.2013     02:35 PM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

A little over two weeks ago the Minnesota Golden Gophers they were in the midst of a three-game losing streak with rumblings that the program was in disarray. The following game they had a decent effort at Wisconsin (lost by one, covered +3.5) and then manhandled Nebraska at home by 19. Up next, Minny barely slipped past Iowa, 62-59, as 10-point home favorites – a win that was a bit troubling considering the Golden Gophers shot better from the field, attempted and made more free throws, were +6 on the glass, and somehow didn't sniff a pointspread cover. Three days later in East Lansing, Minnesota had a 20-18 halftime lead but lost by 11 catching +3.5. But out of all of those performances, it was Sunday's showing vs. Illinois that was the worst. In an absolutely prime spot – off a loss, at home, facing a mediocre Illini squad that just beat the No. 1 team in the country in miracle fashion – Minnesota was simply awful. This is an offense that through its first five Big Ten games averaged 79 ppg and against the 11th-ranked Read more


Tags: College Basketball Minnesota Golden Gophers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's worst against the spread

02.11.2013     07:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a look at the best pointspread teams in all of college basketball, with the goal of assessing which teams were most likely to continue their ATS success down the stretch. This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be overvalued as February rolls into March? Let’s find out!

The single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball this year has been IUPUI (Indiana-Purdue, Indianapolis); the type of team that only wiseguys bet on or against on a regular basis. At 5-17 ATS, no team in all of college basketball has suffered more pointspread defeats than the Jaguars this year. The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps.

IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, covering just a single pointspread at home all year. They’ve been besieged with injuries and attrition; Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




College Basketball Betting: Kansas' offense has been horrific

02.11.2013     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas State at Kansas -8 O/U 131.5

Pretty amazing that West Virginia of all teams is averaging more points per possession (100.4) than Kansas (100.1) in Big XII play. The difference in miniscule but we're talking about a team that was 9-11, 2-5 in Big XII play heading into February vs. a team that at one point was undefeated in league play and ranked among the top 5 teams in the nation. During Kansas' three-game losing streak they shot 16-of-41 from 2 against Oklahoma State, tried its best to duplicate that in the loss to TCU (15-of-39), and went 5-of-15 from 3 and 11-of-20 from the free throw line in Saturday's loss at Oklahoma.


“I don’t know where we are,” Self said, “but it seems like to me, we’re missing a lot of shots that other teams aren’t missing.”





Tags: College Basketball Kansas Jayhawks Kansas State Wildcats




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northern Iowa Panthers at Bradley Braves

02.10.2013     07:53 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northern Iowa -3 at Bradley
Recommendation: Northern Iowa


This looks to be a solid spot where fundamental and situational angles favor visiting UNI. The Panthers have recently taken their methodical offense and vice grip defense philosophies to new heights which figure to frustrate inconsistent Bradley. Over their last six games, Northern Iowa has limited MVC opponents to 50.3 ppg and they’ve totally suffocated foes from beyond the arc allowing an average of 26% (26-100) and no better than 33% during the span. Bradley’s emphasis on three-point shooting (five players with 56 attempts or more) and quicker tempo (70 possessions per game in league play) is simply not a good fit against the Panthers. Another factor in UNI’s favor is the fact that they’re overdue to snap out of their three-game shooting funk. UNI boasts a solid 52.5 effective FG% for the season but in their last three games they’ve produced three of their four lowest Read more


Tags: College Basketball Northern Iowa Panthers Bradley Braves Rob Veno




College Basketball Gambling: Recapping Notre Dame's miracle win vs. Louisville and others

02.10.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It was possibly the worst quintuple overtime thriller I’ve ever watched! Well, a truly ugly first 35 minutes…followed by a sluggish but entertainingly dramatic 30 additional minutes. Many of you watched too, so you know what I’m talking about. The last 35 minutes of on-the-clock action was very compelling basketball even if the game was far from a piece of artwork. If you missed it:

*We had your typical 50-something to 40-something type grinder brewing most of the night. Louisville led 49-45 with 2:30 left in regulation.

*Louisville pulled out to what seemed like a safe lead with 90 seconds left…setting up the standard sequence of them shooting free throws while Notre Dame tried to make desperation treys. Louisville led 53-45 with 1:27 to go.

*Notre Dame made ONE…then TWO…then THREE very long range very forced desperation treys to force a late tie. Those bombs fell with 44-36-28 seconds left respectively.

*Louisville didn’t have Read more


Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Louisville Cardinals Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores

02.09.2013     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arkansas at Vanderbilt +2
Recommendation: Vanderbilt


From a situational standpoint, it doesn't get much better than a fade of Arkansas this afternoon. For starters, the Razorback are winless on the road – and with the exception of a three-point loss at Alabama, their SEC games away from Fayetteville haven't been very competitive with losses by 18, 14, and 21. Then there is the issue of coming off a win over Florida back on Tuesday. This is still a very young ball club and with a history of not being able to sustain success. And don't forget that when these two teams met back in mid-January, Arkansas won 56-33 – one of the worst losses in Vanderbilt's history. No question the Commodores remember that outing. As for Vandy, it's been ugly, no doubt. But this team continues to fight with three straight losses by 1, 4, and 1. They also lost to Kentucky on this floor by two and took Ole Miss to overtime. So the record says 2-7, but they could very easily Read more


Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Andrew Lange




College Basketball Gambling: Top ranked Indiana melts down at Illinois

02.08.2013     12:17 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Number one Indiana trailed for a fraction of a second in the second half Thursday night in its Big Ten road game against Illinois in Champaign-Urbana. It was the fraction of a second that mattered most…as Illinois hit a shot just before the buzzer to make it FIVE STRAIGHT WEEKS where the top team in the AP poll was knocked off its perch.

Illinois 74, #1 Indiana 72

2-Point Percentage: Indiana 48%, Illinois 50%

3-Point Shooting: Indiana 9/17, Illinois 9/24

Free Throws: Indiana 13/14, Illinois 13/15

1’s and 2’s: Indiana 45, Illinois 47

Rebounds: Indiana 28, Illinois 21

Turnovers: Indiana 14, Illinois 9

(Indiana 2-1 in Kenpom/Sagarin respectively, Illinois 56-51)

We talked about Indiana’s penchant for sloppiness in our coverage of the Michigan game last weekend. That was an issue here…as the team was -5 in the turnover category against an opponent that was second best Read more


Tags: College Basketball Illinois Fighting Illini Indiana Hoosiers Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans

02.08.2013     12:10 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Utah State -7 at San Jose State
Recommendation: Utah State


San Jose State has now gone a month without a victory: 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and they have been burning money for their supporters on their home court going 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. The Spartans struggles coincided with the suspension of their best player guard James Kinney who averaged 20.6 ppg along with over 5 rebounds per contest and a team high 34 steals. Kinney was well over 80% of San Jose State’s offense. Without Kinney on the court, only one player averages double digits in scoring on this team and that is Chris Cunningham at 10.6 ppg. Clearly, San Jose State hasn’t shown any sort of ability to adjust to Kinney’s absence.

Utah State has also had to deal with injuries. Preston Medlin is out 6 to 8 weeks with a broken wrist. Kyisean Reed is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL back in January.  After the injuries Read more


Tags: College Basketball Utah State Aggies San Jose State Spartans Ian Cameron



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