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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers breaks down the Sweet Sixteen

03.25.2013     11:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament.   The two best conferences in the regular season – the Big Ten and the Big East – proved to be the two best conferences in the Big Dance, sending seven teams to the Sweet Sixteen.  The ACC and the PAC-12 were the only two other conferences to send multiple teams onto the second weekend of the Big Dance. 

This week, I’ll be taking a look at the sixteen remaining teams in the field; assessing their chances for tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend.  Teams are listed in rotation order.

Syracuse is drawing comparisons to the UConn team that won it all two years ago.  The Orange, like the Huskies, slumped down the stretch of the regular season.  Like the Huskies, they came on strong in the Big East tournament, rebuilding their confidence in the process.  Also like UConn, Syracuse has all kinds of NBA ready talent. Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche are all expected to be drafted this spring.  Don’t Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

NCAA Tournament Betting News: Markets give Florida Gulf Coast 13% chance vs. Florida

03.25.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Ken Pomeroy's updated Sweet Sixteen log5 projections. Pomeroy gives Florida Gulf Coast a 5.1% chance to get past Florida whereas the betting markets have the Eagles around 13% (+650 moneyline). In terms of the title, Florida has the slight edge (29.2%) over Louisville (25.3%).

Tags: College Basketball

College Basketball Handicapping: Robert Morris on the road following win over Kentucky

03.25.2013     07:23 AM     Printer Friendly
Robert Morris at Providence -8.5 O/U 137.5

Be interesting to see if Robert Morris can come close to matching the energy and emotion it had in last week's win over Kentucky.

“We've had some good workouts the past few days,” Toole said. “I was worried that we wouldn't be as focused as we were for Kentucky, but the players were locked in. They didn't forget about the preparation we had for Kentucky. We needed the same type of preparation for Providence.”


Tags: College Basketball Robert Morris Colonials Providence Friars Kentucky Wildcats

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Santa Clara Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers

03.25.2013     07:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Santa Clara at Purdue -6.5 O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Purdue

With the exception on an early season win at Saint Louis, Santa Clara has had a real difficult time stepping up in class. Against the WCC's Big Three (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU), the Broncos went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS. Of those six games, only one was decided by double-digits; a seven-point home loss to Gonzaga. And don't be fooled by SC's opening round win and cover vs. Vermont. It was an absolutely horrific travel spot/situation for the Catamounts and yet they played dead even with Santa Clara for 39 minutes before fouls and free throws created a misleading margin of victory. Purdue is using the CBI as a means of extending the careers of its seniors while getting some of its young kids extended looks. They got past Western Illinois in the first round, 81-67. I'm not sure we get a "balls out" effort from the Boilermakers but I trust Matt Painter to have his kids at least somewhat prepared. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Santa Clara Broncos Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange

NCAA Tournament Betting Free Play: No. 13 La Salle Explorers vs. No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels

03.24.2013     07:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
La Salle at Mississippi
Recommendation: La Salle +2.5 1st half

Throughout Ole Miss's postseason run the common theme has been big second halves. In the SEC Tournament, they trailed against Missouri and Florida and were tied with Vanderbilt at half an obviously won all three games. In the first round against Wisconsin, the Rebels trailed by three and rolled to an 11-point win. I personally think this method of routinely coming off the pace is going to eventually backfire at some point (perhaps tonight) but it is impressive that in the second half of those four games Ole Miss outscored the opposition 153-103. La Salle is playing its third game in five days. We saw last time out against K-State that the Explorers were perhaps a little fatigued as they nearly blew an 18-point halftime lead. Ole Miss has been getting the job done with defense but the offense has really struggled (less than a point per possession in four straight games). Unlike Wisconsin, La Read more

Tags: College Basketball Ole Miss Rebels La Salle Explorers Andrew Lange

NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Points of Reference for Sunday

03.24.2013     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Estimated Power Ratings going by seed line for remaining 24 teams.

1…Louisville 89, Indiana 87, Kansas 84

2…Duke 86, Ohio State 84, Miami 84

3…Florida 87, Michigan State 84, Marquette 80

4…Michigan 84, Syracuse 83

6…Arizona 82

7…Creighton 81, San Diego State 80, Illinois 78

8…North Carolina 79

9…Wichita State 78, Temple 76

10…Iowa State 77

11…Minnesota 79

12… Mississippi 79, Oregon 78

13…LaSalle 76

15…Florida Gulf Coast 72

A maximum of 11 teams seeded for the Sweet 16 can make it now. At least two teams seeded #12 or worse will be there. Are any more upsets on the way?

Statlines for Saturday and Sunday. The stats are from “conference only” regular season games. The pace numbers are from Kenpom from the beginning of the week. The Conference advantages are from Read more

Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence

NCAA Tournament Betting Free Play: No. 12 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens

03.23.2013     01:24 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Oregon at Saint Louis -4 O/U 125
Recommendation: Saint Louis

Saint Louis is real deal; the best mid-major team in the country right now (sorry, Gonzaga).  And the Billikens are as hot as any team in the country right now; 16-1 SU in their last 17 games, the lone loss coming on the road in overtime at Xavier.

SLU hasn’t just been winning – it has been killing teams!  Twelve of their 16 wins during this span have come by double-digit margins and none have come by less than four points; enough to cover Saturday’s spread.  We’re not just talking about beating patsies either – three wins over Butler, two over VCU, along with blowouts over LaSalle, Dayton and St Joe’s. 

And look at how well the Atlantic-10 conference has done here in the postseason! In the Big Dance alone, we’ve seen Temple’s win over NC State, VCU’s blowout over Akron, Saint Louis’s smackdown over Read more

Tags: College Basketball Oregon Ducks Saint Louis Billikens Teddy Covers

NCAA Tournament Gambling: Betting markets react to Thursday's results

03.22.2013     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at some of the early line moves for Saturday's NCAA Tournament Round of 32. There were a few instances that on the surface look pretty reactionary to what took place on Thursday.

- Michigan State dominated Valparaiso and Memphis nearly coughed it up against St. Mary's. The Spartans opened -4.5 and were bet up to as high as -6 before settling in at -5.5.

- Wichita State crushed Pittsburgh while Gonzaga didn't exactly have an easy go of it against Southern. The Zags opened -7 vs. the Shockers but it was bet down to -6.

- Louisville scored 79 vs. NC A&T and Colorado State hung 84 on Missouri. No surprise to see the UL-CSU total bet up from 133 to 134/134.5.

- Butler looked sluggish at times but played a strong second half in its win over Bucknell. Marquette was lucky to get past No. 14 seed Davidson. Early money has come in on the Bulldogs with the Golden Eagles bet down from -2.5 to -2.

Tags: College Basketball

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Temple Owls vs. NC State Wolfpack

03.22.2013     07:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Temple vs. NC State O/U 149.5
Recommendation: NC State

Temple has been bounced out of the first round in four of the last five years, and head coach Fran Dunphy is just 2-12 SU in 14 previous NCAA appearances.  That’s a trend that should continue in 2013 in what should be a very difficult matchup for the underdog Owls.

Temple still has a reputation as a giant killer in March dating back to the John Chaney era.  And the Owls found ways to pull off some major upsets this year, including SU wins over the likes of Syracuse, Kent, LaSalle, Saint Louis, VCU and Villanova, along with a near upset on the road at Kansas. 

But the Owls were only a .500 level ATS team as underdogs of +4.5 points or more.  They repeatedly struggled from a lack of offensive production, in large part due to poor shot selection from their two leading scorers Khalif Wyatt and Scootie Randall.  To make matters even worse, the Owls struggled Read more

Tags: College Basketball Temple Owls NC State Wolfpack Teddy Covers

NCAA Tournament Betting: Live Posting Forum Chat 3-22-2012

03.22.2013     06:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Join the Sportsmemo Handicappers today starting at 9:30 am PT for live NCAA Tournament betting discussion including free halftime recommendations. If you aren't a posting forum user, you can sign up for free right here. Here is a link to today's thread. Enjoy.

Tags: College Basketball


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