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November

21

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College Basketball Update: Missing from the Math in Kenpom's Foul or Defend Study

02.14.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Those of you who are statheads may have already spent the day discussing Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball tabulations on what happens when a defense does or doesn’t foul when leading by three late in the game. I think a fairly important factor has been left out of the discussions I’ve read and heard (maybe it’s come up often in ones I haven’t).

First, the nuts and bolts. Pomeroy wanted to compare late game success rates from recent years that would shed light on the “foul or defend” debate. Some people are always screaming at coaches to foul when up three in the final seconds. Most coaches are ignoring this and continuing to defend, figuring the worst that can happen is that the other team hits a trey and the game goes to overtime.

Kenpom’s Parameters

In games from 2009-10 to Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Gambling: Louisville looks to bounce back vs. St. John's

02.14.2013     06:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Johns at Louisville -17 O/U 132.5

Last night, Notre Dame had a difficult time disposing of Big East bottom feeder DePaul, eventually winning in overtime, 82-78. Heading into that game there were obvious questions about whether or not the Irish would have enough in the tank physically and emotionally after the five overtime affair against Louisville. Tonight it is the Cardinals' turn as they play host to St. John's.


“In three of our five losses, we have beat ourselves, and for a veteran team that’s very disturbing,” Pitino said on Wednesday. “I think we’re playing with great heart, with very little head. You’ve got to play smart as well as playing hard to be a successful team, and they know that.”

“Russ has got to learn Read more



Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals St. John's Red Storm




College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success?

02.13.2013     03:10 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 – three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary – one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern.

According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games Read more


Tags: College Basketball Northeastern Huskies Delaware Blue Hens Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: Miami's Jim Larranaga uses stats, covers numbers

02.13.2013     11:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting article on Miami head coach Jim Larranaga and is fondness of Ken Pomeroy's statistics. Note that dating back to his last year at George Mason, Larranaga's teams are an amazing 53-26 against the spread.


"Honestly, I never think about it," Larranaga answered. "The only rankings that are important to me are the rankings of the KenPom.com stats in all of the categories that determine success or failure."

"The first thing I needed them to know is where they needed to improve, and those numbers showed them because they are totally objective numbers," Larranaga said. "You can't argue with them. They show you what you need to work on. And, as a coach, if you don't know what you need to work on, then you're just practicing ... stuff. Yes, I want to practice what we're good at. But what I really want to practice is what we have to improve on to be really good, and I want my players to understand why we're doing it."

Read more


Tags: College Basketball Miami Hurricanes




College Basketball Gambling: Duke a double-digit favorite over North Carolina

02.13.2013     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly
North Carolina at Duke -10.5 O/U 152

Duke and North Carolina hook up for the first time this season in Durham. It's been a balanced series of late with the Blue Devils holding a slight edge both SU (6-5) and ATS (6-5). Home court hasn't meant much with the road side winning six of 10 outright (one game was on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament). Seven of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total.

Duke-North Carolina Betting History 2008-12
Year
Venue
Score
SU
ATS
Total
2012
Durham
UNC 88, DUKE 70
UNC
UNC -2
Over 155
2012
Chapel Hill
DUKE 84, UNC 84
Duke
Duke +6
Over 155
2011
Neutral
DUKE 75, UNC 58
Duke
Duke -4.5
Under 147
2011
Chapel Hill
UNC 81, DUKE 67
UNC
UNC -1.5
Under 150.5
2011
Durham
DUKE 79, UNC 73
Duke
UNC +10.5
Under 156.5
2010
Durham
DUKE 82, UNC 50
Duke
Duke -15
Under 145.5
2010
Chapel Hill
DUKE 64, UNC 54
Duke
Duke -5.5
Under 155.5
2009
Chapel Hill
UNC 79, DUKE 71
UNC
Duke +8.5
Under 165.5
2009
Durham
UNC 101, DUKE 87
UNC
UNC -2
Over 154.5
2008
Durham
UNC 76, DUKE 68
UNC
UNC +1.5
Under 169.5
2008
Chapel Hill
DUKE 89, UNC 78
Duke
Duke +4.5
Over 164





Tags: College Basketball Duke Blue Devils North Carolina Tar Heels




College Basketball Handicapping: Can Notre Dame get up for DePaul?

02.13.2013     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Depaul at Notre Dame -11.5

Bus trips, fatigue, hangovers, letdowns...they are all tricky aspects of a lot of handicaps this time of year. For every one that plays out as expected – Team A off a big win over rival but falls flat next time out as road chalk – there is another that doesn't – Team B off three road games in five nights, the last of which in two overtimes, rolls to an easy win and cover. For tonight, a lot of folks are going to question whether or not Notre Dame can bounce back from Saturday's five overtime circus win over Louisville. DePaul isn't a very good team (1-9 vs. Big East) but the Blue Demons have at times been competitive (three Big East losses by 1/OT). The Irish meanwhile don't have a big track record of winning by margin against conference foes. Way back on January Read more


Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish DePaul Blue Demons




College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Indiana State Sycamores at Missouri State Bears

02.12.2013     11:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Indiana State -4.5 at Missouri State
Recommendation: Indiana State


When these two teams met in Terre Haute last month, Indiana State’s defense positively stifled Missouri State’s limited offense after halftime, outscoring the Bears by a dozen in the second half of a comfortable eight point win.  There’s no reason to expect anything significantly different tonight. 

The Bears can’t find the bottom of the basket.  They shot just 16-51 from the floor in a 29 point loss at Wichita State over the weekend  after being held to 37 points at Northern Iowa in their previous game, another double digit defeat thanks to their 15-55 shooting effort. 

Don’t expect home cookin’ to change Missouri State’s offensive acumen in any dramatic way – they’ve shot under 40% at home for the entire season.  Leading scorer and assist man Anthony Downing hits less than 40% of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Indiana State Sycamores Missouri State Bears Teddy Covers




College Basketball Gambling: Long trips and a short turnaround for Valpo

02.12.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Valparaiso at Wright State pk

Big matchup in the Horizon League tonight as Valparaiso (9-2) heads to Wright State (8-4). Valpo didn't get home from its trip to Cleveland State until late Saturday night and left via bus for Dayton on Monday morning.


“We got guys with some injuries that were on the bus for 10 hours two days ago and then almost four and a half hours today,” Drew said. “That’s almost 15 hours. I think travel catches up with you at some point. When that point is, you never know."






Tags: College Basketball Valparaiso Crusaders Wright State Raiders




College Basketball Betting Trends: Kentucky is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under Calipari

02.12.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
Kentucky at Florida -10 O/U 133.5

Kentucky finds itself a double-digit underdog for tonight's game at Florida – the most points the Wildcats have ever been catching while under John Calipari's watch. Calipari is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS as an underdog dating back to the 2009-10 season.

Kentucky as an underdog under John Calipari
Year
Opponent
Score
Kentucky SU
Kentucky ATS
2013
at Ole Miss
87-74
Win
Win +2.5
2013
at Louisville
77-80
Loss
Win +7
2013
at Notre Dame
50-64
Loss
Loss +1.5
2013
vs. Duke
68-75
Loss
Loss +4.5
2011
vs. Ohio State
62-60
Win
Win +5.5
2011
vs. Florida
70-54
Win
Win +1.5
2011
at Louisville
78-63
Win
Win +3
2011
vs. Washington
74-67
Win
Win +3.5
2010
vs. UConn
64-61
Win
Win +1
Results
 
 
6-3 SU
7-2 ATS





Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Florida Gators




College Basketball Handicapping: Is it smart to foul up three?

02.12.2013     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As a basketball bettor, rarely a week goes by where the issue of whether or not to foul up three comes into question. We've all been there – and certainly remember the times when the team that you wagered on did the opposite of what was needed to cover. Ken Pomeroy ran his numbers and ultimately felt that fouling up three was the WRONG decision.


The fact is, chances of losing are close to remote in either case, but execution errors, an inflated offensive rebounding percentage, poor three-point shooting, and the chance of an extra possession are enough to counteract what might otherwise be the advantage of forcing a team to shoot free throws. In cases where the opponent has multiple good three-point shooters and you have confidence in rebounding a missed free throw, fouling may be the better option. But it appears the default decision should be to not foul.






Tags: College Basketball



45

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November

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