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February

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NCAA Tournament Betting: Stat Notes for Final Four

04.03.2013     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are the statlines that we’ve been using through the Dance in matchup order for Saturday. If you’re new to the blog, we tried to paint a picture of each team’s skill sets and approaches by focusing on these stats:

Two-Point Defense

Rebounding Margin

Turnover Margin

Made Treys per game

Adjusted Pace Rankings as tabulated by Ken Pomeroy

In those first four, we used CONFERENCE ONLY data because that represents a good combination of sample size, schedule quality, and relative recency (ignoring stuff that happened in November and December). I grabbed those from the various conference websites across the nation just before the conference tourneys began. Pace factor was based on the full season because that’s how Kenpom posts it on his home page.

I haven’t done any tweaking to the first four categoreis since the postseason began. We’re using these to get an image of the teams, not to do any fancy calculations. Read more



Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Wichita State Shockers Michigan Wolverines Syracuse Orange




College Basketball Gambling: Referees go after Arizona's Sean Miller

04.02.2013     07:38 AM     Printer Friendly
Remember Ed Rush? Back in the day he was the NBA's head of officiating. Dallas owner Mark Cuban famously said that he wouldn't hire Ed Rush to run a Dairy Queen. Well news has come out that Rush, who is currently the head of officiating for the PAC-12, told his minions to give Arizona head coach Sean Miller the business during the PAC-12 Tournament. Miller, who doesn't come off a very demonstrative, was issued a very questionable technical foul in what ended up being a semifinal loss to UCLA. And according to reports, the ref who slapped Miller with the "T" didn't have "that type of mentality." And for those of you scoring at home, Arizona outshot UCLA from the floor and from three and was +7 on the glass. The difference in the game was fouls and free throws. UCLA attempted 21 free throws and was Read more



Tags: College Basketball Arizona Wildcats UCLA Bruins




College Basketball Betting Trends: MSG has history of producing NIT semifinal UNDERS

04.02.2013     07:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Taking a look at a totals trend for tonight's NIT. I went back to 2006 and spotted that 10 of the last 14 semifinal matchups (see chart below) went under the total, including six straight. And that shouldn't come as a big surprise. For the past few weeks these teams have been playing loose, carefree basketball, in comfortable environments. Now they get to Madison Square Garden and all of a sudden it's a more serious atmosphere in a completely different type of venue. And don't forget the inflation in the betting markets. Secondary tournaments are notorious for going over the total and bettors – myself included – are constantly pounding away at them despite some significant line moves. And why not? In the six games leading up to the semifinals, Baylor and BYU posted an average game score of 161.5 ppg. That makes tonight’s 152.5 seem cheap, no? But there have been plenty of on-paper, over-esque matchups in the past and based on the historical results of these NIT semifinals they simply don’t have a strong track record. I think this trend has some merit and made plays on both games UNDER the total. 

Follow me on Twitter Read more



Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars Baylor Bears Andrew Lange




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers breaks down the Final Four

04.01.2013     12:04 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about college basketball consistently since the Super Bowl, and there’s room for one last college hoops column this week.  No, I’m not going to break down the NIT Final Four, the CBI best-of-three series between Santa Clara and George Mason, or the CIT Championship Game between East Carolina and Weber State.  This column is about the big boys!

Four teams have stood out above the rest on the biggest of stages over the past two weekends: Michigan, Syracuse, Wichita State and Louisville.  Bracketologists might be surprised that only one of the top twelve seeds made it this far, with a pair of #4 seeds and a #9 seed joining the top overall seed Louisville in the Final Four. 

But bettors know that seeding is essentially meaningless, especially when we’re talking about the bevy of quality teams in the Big Dance.  That’s why we’ve seen lower seeded teams favored on more than a handful of occasions here in the tourney, like when Syracuse was the chalk against #3 seed Marquette, in one prominent example this past weekend.

Only one team can cut down the nets in Atlanta next Read more



Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Michigan Wolverines Syracuse Orange Wichita State Shockers Teddy Covers




Louisville Cardinals enter Final Four as betting favorite to cut down nets

04.01.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
Saturday's Final Four is set with Louisville (-10.5) taking on Wichita State and Michigan (-2.5) facing Syracuse. The Cardinals' four wins were by margins of 31, 26, 8, and 22. According to Pinnacle, they are the betting favorites to win the tournament at -141.

Louisville
Yes -141
No +128

Michigan
Yes +318
No -366

Syracuse
Yes +541
No -660

Wichita State
Yes +1300
No -2200




Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Wichita State Shockers Michigan Wolverines Syracuse Orange




NCAA Tournament Gambling: Consensus bets for Sunday's Ellite Eight

03.31.2013     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for today's Elite Eight according to Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Louisville -3.5 - 68.5%
Michigan +2.5 - 54.4%

Moneyline
Michigan +130 - 67.1%
Duke +165 - 58.0%

Totals
Michigan-Florida OVER 132.5 - 83.3%
Duke-Louisville OVER 137 - 67.7%

 




Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Duke Blue Devils Michigan Wolverines Florida Gators




NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Wichita State headed to Final Four

03.31.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intellience

There was a lot of chatter this year that parity in college basketball had set up a great possibility that another mid major was going to make it to the Final Four. Then it happened, the 11th most likely mid major team did it!

Mid-Major Seeds

1…Gonzaga

3…New Mexico

4…Saint Louis

5…VCU, UNLV (how did UNLV get a #5 seed again??!!)

6…Memphis, Butler

7…Creighton, San Diego State

8…Colorado State

9…Wichita State, Temple

And, you can’t say it came cheap. Wichita State beat Pittsburgh as a dog…beat Gonzaga as a dog…and beat Ohio State as a dog…teams the computers had loved all season.

Current Computer Composite of “Shocked” Favorites

Gonzaga 5 in Kenpom, 7 in Sagarin, 5 in BPI

Ohio State 6 in Kenpom, 5 in Sagarin, 7 in BPI

Pittsburgh 11 in Kenpom, 14 in Sagarin, 15 in BPI

Going from Read more



Tags: College Basketball Wichita State Shockers Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Syracuse shuts down Marquette, advances to Final Four

03.31.2013     06:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The first game of the Elite Eight round of the 2013 NCAA Championships was so dismal that you’re afraid writing about it is going to rub off on you, making it impossible to type all weekend.

Marquette was 9 of 28 on two-pointers

Marquette was 3 of 25 on treys

Marquette was 12 of 53 overall, and it felt worse.

Davante Gardner of Marquette was awesome. He showed a complete understanding of how to break a zone…how to shoot from the open spots internally…how to pass to an open man if the defense converges on you. Gardner was 6 of 9 from the floor, including 1 of 1 from three-point land even though he’s 6’8”, 290 pounds.

Marquetters not named Gardner were 4 of 20 on two-pointers

Marquetters not named Gardner were 2 of 24 on treys

Marquetters not named Gardner were 6 of 44 overall, and it felt worse

Fairness dictates that you credit the tangled web of Syracuse’s zone for a lot of Read more



Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange Marquette Golden Eagles Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Gambling: Consensus bets for Saturday's Ellite Eight

03.30.2013     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for today's Elite Eight according to Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Ohio State -4.5 - 63.1%
Syracuse -5 - 51.4%

Moneyline
Ohio State -205 - 62.0%
Marquette +190 - 54.2%

Totals
Wichita State-Ohio State OVER 131 - 75.2%
Syracuse-Marquette OVER 127.5 - 57.4%




Tags: College Basketball




NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Duke dispatches Sparty, Florida sends Cinderella packing

03.30.2013     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The first half of Duke/Michigan State went pretty much the way you would expect. Duke had to hit treys to compete. Seth Curry was 6 of 7 all by himself in the first 20 minutes. Michigan State dominated the inside. Duke led thanks to their big edge in treys.

In the second half, Duke played very good inside defense while Michigan State kept forcing up bad shots. That led to a 13 minute dry spell that saw the Spartans only make one field goal from about 17 minutes left to about 4 minutes left. Academic after that. I usually blast Duke’s inside defense. They really did a good job here of blocking shots and denying good looks when it mattered down the stretch.

Duke 71, Michigan State 61

2-Point Percentage: Michigan State 45%, Duke 42%

3-Point Shooting: Michigan State 3/12, Duke 7/18

Free Throws: Michigan State 18/24, Duke 24/26

1’s and 2’s: Michigan State 52, Duke 50

Rebounds: Michigan State 33, Duke Read more



Tags: College Basketball Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans Florida Gators Florida Gulf Coast Eagles Stat Intelligence



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