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College Basketball Handicapping: Notre Dame falters, Iowa State impresses

02.05.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The struggling Notre Dame Fighting Irish flailed again Monday night in a 63-47 loss at Syracuse as 8-point underdogs. That’s now seven of the last eight games that the Irish have failed to meet market expectations in regulation.

Notre Dame’s Recent Struggles (going back in time from tonight)

Notre Dame (+8.5) lost at Syracuse 63-47 (missed by 7.5 points)

Notre Dame (-6) went overtime at DePaul (missed by 6 points in regulation)

Notre Dame (-8.5) beat Villanova 65-60 (missed by 3.5 points)

Notre Dame (-3.5) won at South Florida 73-65 (only regulation cover in last eight)

Notre Dame (-5.5) lost to Georgetown 63-47 (missed by 10.5 points)

Notre Dame (-11.5) beat Rutgers 69-66 (missed by 8.5 points)

Notre Dame (-7) lost at St. John’s 67-63 (missed by 11 points)

Notre Dame (-8.5) lost to Connecticut 65-58 (missed by 15.5 points)

The market has corrected some…as that early quartet of big Read more


Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Iowa State Cyclones




College Basketball Gambling: ESPN Bracket Buster matchups announced

02.05.2013     06:35 AM     Printer Friendly
Here are this year's ESPN Bracket Buster matchups. The games take place on February 22-23. *Indicates TV game.

2013 ESPN Bracket Buster Schedule
Road Team
Conference
Home Team
Conference
North Dakota State
Summit
Akron*
Mid-American
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
Long Beach State*
Big West
Iona
Metro Atlantic
Indiana State*
Missouri Valley
Eastern Kentucky
Ohio Valley
Valparaiso*
Horizon
Canisius
Metro Atlantic
Vermont*
America East
Pacific
Big West
Western Michigan*
Mid-American
Montana
Big Sky
Davidson*
Southern
Northwestern State
Southland
Niagara*
Metro Atlantic
Creighton
Missouri Valley
St. Mary's*
West Coast
South Dakkota State
Summit
Murray State*
Ohio Valley
Denver
WAC
Northern Iowa*
Missouri Valley
Ohio
Mid-American
Belmont*
Ohio Valley
Illinois State
Missouri Valley
Utah State
WAC
Loyola-Maryland
Metro Atlantic
Tennessee State
Ohio Valley
Weber State
Big Sky
Oral Roberts
Southland
Bradley
Missouri Valley
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Horizon
Drake
Missouri Valley
Central Michigan
Mid-American
Youngstown State
Horizon
Albany
America East
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic
Evansville
Missouri Valley
Wright State
Horizon
Gardner-Webb
Big South
College of Charleston
Southern
Morehead State
Ohio Valley
Oakland
Summit
UC Irvine
Big West
Texas-Arlington
Western Athletic
Kent State
Mid-American
Loyola-Chicago
Horizon
Jacksonville State
Ohio Valley
UNC Asheville
Big South
Charleston Southern
Big South
Rider
Metro Atlantic
McNeese State
Southland
Toledo
Mid-American
Loyola Marymount
West Coast
Cal Poly
Big West
Sacramento State
Big Sky
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
Missouri State
Missouri Valley
Eastern Michigan
Mid-American
Miami (Ohio)
Mid-American
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
Manhattan
Metro Atlantic
Buffalo
Mid-American
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
Hawaii
Big West
Ball State
Mid-American
Southeast Missouri State
Ohio Valley
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
UC Davis
Big West
Southeastern Louisiana
Southland
Winthrop
Big South
Savannah State
Mid-Eastern
Campbell
Big South
UMKC
Summit
Tennessee Tech
Ohio Valley
Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
Morgan State
Mid-Eastern
High Point
Big South
Nicholls State
Southland
Texas-San Antonio
Western Athletic
VMI
Big South
Marist
Metro Atlantic
SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
Central Arkansas
Southland
Coastal Carolina
Big South
Western Carolina
Southern
Radford
Big South
Siena
Metro Atlantic
North Dakota
Big Sky
Nebraska-Omaha
Summit
South Dakota
Summit
Montana State
Big Sky
Bowling Green
Mid-American
IPFW
Summit
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
IUPUI
Summit
Longwood
Big South
Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
Cal State Northridge
Big West
Southern Utah
Big Sky
Texas State
Western Athletic
Lamar
Southland
Cal State Fullerton
Big West
Texas A&M- CC
Southland
St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic
Hampton
Mid-Eastern
Idaho
Western Athletic
Idaho State
Big Sky
Sam Houston State
Southland
Eastern Washington
Big Sky
UC Riverside
Big West
Portland State
Big Sky
Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
Liberty
Big South
The Citadel
Southern
Presbyterian
Big South




Tags: College Basketball




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's best against the spread

02.04.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s wild Baltimore victory, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks.  I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider for the last month, but I’ve yet to write a true ‘college basketball overview’ column for any publication so far this season.  That streak ends here.

I’m going take a look at the very best pointspread ‘regular board’ teams in the country in this week’s column.  The list of ATS juggernauts is likely to surprise many people due to its diversity.  Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs.  Look no further than the single best ATS team in the nation so far this season. 

I’ll wager that less than a dozen people in the country knew that Fordham is the #1 ATS team in all of DI basketball this year; 14-5 against the number.  The Rams are 6-16 SU, just 2-5 in Atlantic-10 play.  Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




College Basketball Betting: Florida continues to dominate the SEC

02.04.2013     08:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida is off to an 8-0 start in SEC play and finally failed to cover a pointspread in Saturday's 78-64 win over Ole Miss (+18). Make no mistake, the Gators were in complete control of that game and allowed the Rebels to slip through the backdoor with less than two minutes to go. Statistically, what Florida is doing right now is sick with an average scoring margin of +26.5 vs. conference foes. They are allowing 0.77 points per possession which means in a normal 65 possession game, UF's opponents average about 50 points.

When the Gators won the National Championship in 2006-07, they started conference play 11-0 and had wins by 16, 34, 25, and 16. They eventually cooled off and finished the regular season 4-3 SU and 1-7 ATS. That was a really good team but statistically, this year’s version is at this point far superior. Ken Pom points out that what Florida is doing this season is (somehow) not unprecedented. Pomeroy feels that the Gators will lose at least one and maybe even two league games. They play at Missouri in two weeks and close out the regular season in Read more


Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

02.03.2013     08:41 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Virginia -2.5 at Georgia Tech O/U 112.5
Recommendation: Over


Although they’re not winning games straight up, the young Yellow Jackets have developed a couple of definitive traits. Since ACC play began, GT has pushed their tempo up to 73 possessions per game. The high number of chances has allowed Tech to average nearly 64 ppg in league play despite their poor 38.9 FG%. Even turtle paced Clemson was sped up to 70 possessions by Georgia Tech last Tuesday night in their contest which totaled 123 points. Quicker pace is one thing, but the subpar defense being played by the Jackets is not something associated with HC Brian Gregory. Lapses and non-cohesiveness on the stop end are also bi-products of excessive youth which is trying to learn on the fly in a very tough league.  No doubt that Virginia head coach Tony Bennett’s team always brings their methodical game plan on the road but it’s hard to resist offensive the openings when that will Read more


Tags: College Basketball Virginia Cavaliers Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Rob Veno




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Idaho State at North Dakota

02.02.2013     09:14 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Idaho State at North Dakota -7
Recommendation: North Dakota


Since 2009, when asked to play back-to-back road games in Big Sky play with only one day of rest, Idaho State is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS. Seven of those 10 losses came by more than seven points, tonight’s line against North Dakota. This shouldn’t come as a shock seeing as the Bengals have been Big Sky bottom feeders for quite some time and travel within the league can be brutal. Here they go from Greeley, Colorado (lost to Northern Colorado by 15 on Thursday) to Grand Forks, North Dakota – I can’t confirm but I seriously doubt they chartered a flight but instead like most mid-major schools, took commercial flights sprinkled in with a few hours on a bus. North Dakota isn’t a great team but we’ve seen signs its home court is going to be tough on opposing teams. In mid-January, the (they no longer have a team nickname for PC reasons) rolled off three straight home Read more


Tags: College Basketball Idaho State Bengals North Dakota Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Butler Bulldogs at Saint Louis Billikens

01.31.2013     12:42 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Butler +2.5 at Saint Louis O/U 124
Recommendation: Butler


I’m just not buying into the concept of Butler as an underdog.  Brad Stevens’ squad was an underdog at the Maui Invitational against Marquette.  They won straight up.  The Bulldogs were underdogs against North Carolina the next day.  They won straight up by double digits.  Butler was an underdog against Indiana, ranked #1 at the time.  They won straight up.

The Bulldogs were underdogs at St. Joe’s and Dayton to open up Atlantic-10 conference play.  They won those games in SU fashion too.  They were underdogs to Gonzaga and found a way to steal one from the Zags.  Yes, Butler did lose as an underdog at La Salle last week, but they still covered the spread in a two-point defeat.  Clearly, this team is exceeding marketplace expectations by a fairly wide margin.

Saint Louis is no joke – there’s a reason that Read more


Tags: College Basketball Butler Bulldogs Saint Louis Billikens Teddy Covers




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Loyola Marymount Lions

01.31.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount +16 O/U 142
Recommendation: Loyola Marymount


As bad as Loyola Marymount's record looks, with the exception of a 92-51 loss at BYU (Cougars were in a huge revenge spot), they've been competitive more often than not in West Coast Conference play. They went to St. Mary's and lost by 13 and their other four WCC losses were by single digits. Note that they also managed to slip in a home win over a quality Santa Clara squad. And go back even further and we saw the Lions at home catching +10 against Ole Miss only to lose by three. Over the last six meetings in the series, the highest pointspread was Gonzaga -16.5...in Spokane. In their last three trips to Los Angeles, the Zags were laying -10.5 (won by 4), -9 (won by 10), and -11.5 (lost outright). Another key factor is the prep time. LMU head coach Max Good admitted that star Anthony Ireland has been worn down of late. The Lions had a full week of rest and prepare for the league's Read more


Tags: College Basketball Gonzaga Bulldogs Loyola Marymount Lions Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: Close games in the Big East, blowouts in the SEC

01.30.2013     01:28 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are a few conference-only statistics from Ken Pom that break down home courts (SU), close games (4 points or less and/or OT), and blowouts (19 points or more). There are 33 conferences if you include independent. Below are the top 10 conferences and rank. In terms of home court, the ACC has been the strongest at 30-11 SU. The Missouri Valley Conference is also north of 70%. The Big East has had the highest percentage of close game at 30.9% with the A-10 not far behind at 27.3%. Interesting that despite its slow pace (63.4 possessions per game) and low scoring affairs, only six of 46 Big Ten conference games have been decided by four points or less or went to overtime. When it comes to blowouts, the SEC is top dog with 25% of its games decided by 19 points or more – in large part because of Florida who has five of the 11.
 
Big Ten
Home Court: 26-20, 56.5% (23)
Close Game: 6 of 46, 13.0% (28)
Blowout: 9 of 46, 19.6% (7)

Big East
Home Court: 30-25, 54.5% (26)
Close Game: 17 of 55, 30.9% (2)
Blowout: 5 of 55, 9.1% Read more


Tags: College Basketball




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal

01.30.2013     12:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon at Stanford -2 O/U 139
Recommendation: Over


Last time out, without starting point guard Dominic Artis, Oregon scored 81 points in an up-tempo, 76 possession game against Washington. I don't think we'll see those types of numbers tonight but it's clear that from a tempo standpoint, even without Artis, the Ducks are going to continue to run.


"We need to keep running," Altman said. "That suits us and helps us with our depth. If we're going to play nine or 10 guys, we've got to make sure we're pressing the other team."



Stanford has been up and down all season but we've seen the Cardinal push tempo with a willing partner. Games against USC, UCLA and Colorado featured an average of 70 possessions. The problem for Stanford has been an inconsistent offense. I expect them to pressure Read more


Tags: College Basketball Oregon Ducks Stanford Cardinal Andrew Lange



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