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College Basketball Handicapping: What to do with UCLA moving forward

01.05.2015     02:09 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
So if you haven't already noticed, UCLA is really bad. Or at least that's how they've been playing the last three weeks. They can't win, can't cover, and have been an under bettor's dream because they can't score despite playing at a fast clip. Look, as of now, unless I come across a great piece of information, playing a conference game over the total just isn't in the cards. However, knowing the natural ebb and flow of a season, I can tell you that the Bruins are at some point going to cash in on some overs.

For starters, four of their last five games were on the road and all but one opponent (Alabama) was what I would consider to be defensively elite. Some of the blame can no question be placed on the offense which has little to no room for growth if Bryce Alford remains the team's top scoring option. Adding to it is that they don't have a true point guard nor any pop off the bench. Pretty bleak, right? But when you step back and look at the bigger picture I see potential -- and by potential I mean "overs."

Of UCLA's seven losses, all but one was on the road and the lone home game, sure enough, went flying over the total with 160 points. And the one Read more

Tags: College Basketball UCLA Bruins Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs

01.03.2015     07:49 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
West Virginia -2.5 at TCU O/U 131
Recommendation: Under

West Virginia has had a pretty easy go of it thus far playing home/neutral games against mostly lesser competition. And you can't go anywhere without hearing about the ridiculous amount of turnovers the Mountaineers are forcing (32.5%). Those turnovers have managed to offset what is once again a below average shooting team. My question is what happens to WVU's vaunted offense if the opposition can hold on to the basketball and not get baited into an up-and-down, chaotic affair? TCU may be that team as the Horned Frogs prefer to play a methodical, half court game under the leadership of veteran point guard Kyan Anderson. Admittedly, TCU has played practically no one so we can't get too excited about the 13-0 start. But what I look at is the scores of games vs. Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Both failed to top 120 points and 125 possessions. That is the type of game TCU wants to play and for the first time in Trent Johnson's tenure, they actually have the players to execute it on a consistent basis as oppose to last season when many of their games got out of hand because of the large margins. Read more

Tags: College Basketball West Virginia Mountaineers TCU Horned Frogs Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Tennessee State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers

12.27.2014     06:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Tennessee State at Tennessee -21.5 O/U 127
Recommendation: Under

Despite the coaching change from Cuonzo Martin to Donnie Tyndall, the Vols really haven't changed much with a vast majority of their games of the slow paced, low scoring variety. With the exception of their contest at NC State that went wild the last 10 minutes (58 points), UT's recent game scores have been 126, 129, 122, 119, and 118. Tennessee should have no trouble keeping Tennessee State under wraps offensively. The Tigers are in complete rebuilding mode and feature a roster with little to do DI experience. Against DI foes, they've notched north of 60 points only twice. And when asked to step up in class they scored a combined 82 points vs. Vanderbilt and Virginia with both games going under today's posted total. The concern here is if the home side goes wild and the second half turns into a pick-up game. The Vols however have yet to show the ability to score at will with their biggest win of the season coming by 12 points. On Monday we saw them grind out a 64-54 win vs. Mercer. I look for a similar output this evening.

Tags: College Basketball Tennessee State Tigers Tennessee Volunteers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting News and Notes 12-19-2014

12.19.2014     12:34 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Ohio State vs. North Carolina (Chicago)
Tar Heels have plenty of issues but the huge advantage in this one is that they've played five quality top 25 caliber teams. Ohio State meanwhile caught Marquette early and battled back but was for the most part manhandled by Louisville. They've been stationed in Columbus playing nothing but glorified practices. Good for confidence, bad for asking them to flip the switch away from home against comparable competition.

Northern Iowa vs. Iowa (Des Moines)
Prior to allowing 90 to rival Iowa State, I've been impressed with Iowa's defense. The offense though has struggled vs. quality foes and Northern Iowa guards about as good as anyone in the country outside of top-tier bullies like Kentucky and Louisville. Would expect Iowa's best effort with over a week to prep after aforementioned blowout loss to Cyclones. Expect to see Hawkeyes in the -2/-2.5 range.

Oklahoma vs. Washington (Las Vegas)
Huskies are undefeated and while the schedule comes up light, this looks to be one of Romar's most complete teams. He's had more talent but they've bought in to guarding which Read more

Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Podcast 12-19-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Brent Crow

12.19.2014     11:05 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Brent Crow. Brent and host Andrew Lange talked about Saturday's marquee matchups.

Today's segments
Brent Crow - College Basketball Saturday

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Arizona State Sun Devils at Marquette Golden Eagles

12.16.2014     01:10 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona State at Marquette
Recommendation: Under 61.5 1st half

I’ve had Marquette pegged as an "under" squad. With only eight available players, the Golden Eagles have been forced to slow down the tempo as well as play zone. Their last game vs. Wisconsin featured only 108 possessions and 87 points. Probably won't see that type of extreme tonight but first-year head coach Steve Wojechowski knows that muddying up the game gives his short-handed squad their best chance to win. Also note that guard Deonte Burton left the team and they added 6-11 center Luke Fisher who originally played at Indiana. The Golden Eagles are in desperate need of size in the paint so the recent “transaction” is really addition by subtraction defensively. Arizona State has been playing at a relatively moderate pace but they've been ultra-efficient thus far hitting nearly 41% of their 3's and 53% of their 2's. Not sure however how long they'll be able to keep that up, especially on the road vs. a capable defense. In their last road game at Texas A&M there were only 120 possessions but 143 points. That is an outlier-type performance and if the Sun Read more

Tags: College Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils Marquette Golden Eagles Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Michigan Wolverines at Arizona Wildcats

12.13.2014     08:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Michigan at Arizona -11.5 O/U 129
Recommendation: Under

The Michigan Wolverines have really fallen on hard times with back-to-back losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan. As a bettor, you can accept a stinker or two but concerns that it took place in back-to-back games after "lack of effort" was the original prognosis following the first loss. There are a lot of demands continuity-wise on both ends of the floor under John Beilein's system and there simply isn't the A-level talent and experience right now to offset the transition. Arizona continues to win by playing ugly basketball but that style isn't conducive for lots of pointspread success. The Wildcats are notorious for allowing foes to stick around as well as milking the clock with a lead. That said, they should be able to bully a Michigan squad short of size and experience. The betting markets were all over the Wolverines in what appeared to be an obvious bounceback vs. EMU. Here we see a line that would have been -8 to -10 two weeks ago at -11.5. We saw the Wolverines net 55 in a low possession slugfest against Villanova. Expecting a similar type of outcome today as we play under the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Arizona Wildcats Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: IUPUI Jaguars at Xavier Musketeers

12.09.2014     10:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
IUPUI at Xavier -25.5 O/U 145.5
Recommendation: Over

To say that Xavier has fallen in love with offense would be an understatement. The Musketeers are averaging over 85 ppg despite playing only one (Northern Arizona) truly lower level squad. They play their weakest opponent to date this evening with IUPUI coming to town. The Jaguars have at times played respectable with an overtime loss to Indiana State and three-point loss to Georgia State. They were also blown out however against Purdue and Evansville. It is the Purdue game that caught my attention. In the first half, there was a lot of pace and a lot of points with the Boilermakers leading 48-38. Matt Painter probably wasn't all too excited about allowing nearly 40 in a half on their home court as IUPUI could manage only 19 points in the second half. Xavier hasn't shown the ability to completely stifle a team. Quotes from players and coaches recognize that the offense-first mentality won't cut it in Big East play but eight games into the season, it is clear that Xavier doesn't have much of a defensive identity. An unlike Purdue, Xavier hasn't shown any signs of backing off late. In blowout home Read more

Tags: College Basketball IUPUI Jaguars Xavier Musketerers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting News and Notes 12-6-2014

12.05.2014     09:56 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Quick hitter thoughts on Saturday's marquee college basketball games.

Virginia at VCU - Rematch of last year's game in which VCU waltzed into Charlottesville and escaped with a 59-56 win after trailing by 6 with two minutes to go. UVA committed 19 turnovers in the loss; something that is likely to be shored up even with this game taking place in Richmond. If VCU isn’t forcing turnovers and/or running/knocking down threes in transition, they become very beatable.

Gonzaga at Arizona - Interesting to see how the Zags matchup against Arizona's size and athleticism. They were completely overwhelmed in last year's 84-61 NCAA Tournament loss. I give them a shot however with Arizona simply not having the offense to pull away from top level competition: see close wins over Kansas State and San Diego State. Cats have a tendency to build leads, sit on the ball, and let the defense take over. Bound to backfire at some point.

Wisconsin at Marquette - Sloppy game by the Badgers in Wednesday's home loss to Duke. The Blue Devils are really good but once again, Wisky had issues against an athletic team. Give Read more

Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Florida Gators at Kansas Jayhawks

12.05.2014     09:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Florida at Kansas
Recommendation: Kansas -4 1st half

Following Florida's early season home loss to Miami, Billy Donovan was very candid in saying there was no way his team was "top 10" caliber. At least not yet. Since that defeat, things have not improved with an overtime win over UL-Monroe, overtime loss vs. Georgetown, 9-point win over UAB, and 11-point loss vs. a very flawed North Carolina squad. And while the defensive numbers are solid, it's the offensive production that is a major concern. And rightfully so considering the loss of Prather, Wilbekin, and Young. In its last four games, Florida's "best" offensive performance was a 0.95 ppp effort vs. UAB. They spent the last week of practice trying to iron out the kinks but a true road game against a top-tier defense doesn't suggest an immediate turnaround. Kansas meanwhile has looked sharp since losing to Kentucky a few weeks back. They posted dominant wins over Rider, Rhode Island, and Tennessee, and last time out put the clamps down on Michigan State in the second half of a 61-56 win. Look for the the Jayhawks to come out strong and take advantage of Florida's early season Read more

Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators Kansas Jayhawks Andrew Lange


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