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College Basketball Handicapping: How important is the first meeting to a rematch?
12.17.2012 07:39 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Interesting theory in play tonight with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas-Little Rock hooking up for a second time this season. In the first meeting, Tech rolled to a 70-52 home win. For tonight's rematch, they are currently priced as 2-point road chalk. I unearthed my College Basketball Prospectus from a few years back and remember an article written by Ken Pomeroy on second meets. The records are a little dated but over a five-year span, Pomeroy found that teams that won the first meeting at home by 20-29 points were a relatively modest 283-202 (.583) in the road rematch. Teams that won by 10-19 points (like Louisiana Tech) were 781-759 (.507). Now if it is the road team doing to initial butt-kicking, they win the rematch around 80 percent of the time at home.
The point here is that while Louisiana Tech may be the better overall team, the end result from the first meeting shouldn’t have much of an impact if any into your handicap. Perhaps more important: Will Little Rock turn the ball over 19 times like it did in Ruston? How concerned should I be over Tech's recent road losses to Northwestern State and McNeese? Is Little Rock's 7-0 record at home for real? Bottom line
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: UW-Milwaukee Panthers at Fairfield Staggs
12.12.2012 08:37 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Wisc-Milwaukee
at
Fairfield
-11.5
Recommendation: Fairfield
My strike price for this being a full play was -10 and unfortunately, the betting markets are well aware of UW-Milwaukee's shortcoming of late. I still think the right side for tonight's contest at Fairfield is the chalk – even with some of the value gone – and will personally play the Staggs in some capacity. Over the last three games, Milwaukee has been simply awful and after watching them lose to Buffalo by 20 and needing overtime to dispose of woeful Northern Illinois, I stepped in and faded the Panthers in what ended up being a 34-point loss to DePaul. Head coach Rob Jeter is at a loss for words when trying to describe his squad’s play. I am too. Even with a more spirited effort tonight, the Panthers just don't have the personnel to compete on the road against a quality opponent. Fairfield isn't the ideal team to be laying double-digits but I like the quotes I read
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College Basketball ATS Analysis: Buy low on Northern Colorado
12.11.2012 07:14 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.
Northern Colorado:
I really liked Northern Colorado heading into the season but thus far they've really disappointed. They have yet to win a game against a DI opponent and more importantly are 0-6 ATS. The program won 21 games in 2010, lost a host of key seniors in 2011 and dropped to 9-19, but returned practically everyone for 2012. As mentioned, it hasn't worked out but I'm not going to give up on this squad just yet.
Will it continue? I don't think so and here is why. For starters, UNC has always had a strong home/road dichotomy. Greeley is at elevation and a difficult place to get to. Remember that 21-win campaign? They didn't lose a single game at Butler Hancock Pavillon. So far this season, they've played one lined game at home and it came against a very strong Wyoming club. UNC actually had a lead in that contest before Wyoming pulled off yet another incredible second half
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College Basketball ATS Analysis: Can Illinois-Chicago hold its betting value?
12.11.2012 06:27 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.
Illinois-Chicago:
At the end of last season, UIC had eight wins and ranked 290th nationally according to Ken Pomeroy. There were flashes of competence and a few nice spread covers but the Flames looked as if they were still going to be outmanned on most nights despite heading into the 2012-12 season with a third-year head coach and four returning starters. But here we are, a month into the season, and UIC is 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS. And their schedule wasn't easy. They lost by seven at New Mexico as 16.5-point underdogs. Beat Iona by five as a 7.5-point underdog on a neutral court. Strolled into Northwestern as double-digit underdogs as won by six. And last time out took down Colorado State as a short home dog. And if you're looking for reason why all of that took place, defense would be a good place to start.
Will it continue? With the departure of Butler and a few others
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College Basketball ATS Analysis: Drexel hopes to turn corner after win over Princeton
12.10.2012 11:31 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.
Drexel
- Since Chris Fouch went down, the Dragons are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Even with Fouch the first three games of the season, Drexel was 0-3 ATS. It wasn’t until Saturday's win at Princeton as 6-point underdogs that this squad got its first spread cover of the season. The loss of Fouch is huge but oddsmakers and the market have adjusted. The adjustment however obviously hasn't been enough. One of the biggest disappointments for the Dragons has been their defense. Last year, they allowed over a point per possession in nine of their 36 games. This season, they've already done it five times.
Will it continue? Surprisingly, there were rumblings early on that this team simply wasn't playing hard – difficult to fathom under Bruiser Flint. The team is hoping the win over Princeton can be a springboard to better things. Drexel's betting value comes from defense and simply
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College Basketball ATS Analysis: UMass falls short of bettors' expectations
12.10.2012 11:09 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.
UMass
– The Minutemen finally got on the board against the spread with a 72-66 win at Northeastern last time out – albeit by a single bucket. Prior to that, UMass was 0-6 ATS; a real disappointment for a team that had moderate expectations heading into the season. The first issue is this squad isn't smart and teams that lack smarts have a difficult time winning by margin. In games they were laying -11, -8 and -7.5 they won by margins of 1, 2 and 3. The next problem is UMass isn't strong enough defensively to step up in class. In games against NC State, Tennessee and Miami, the Minutemen lost by margins of 18, 14 and 7 – never sniffing a pointspread cover in any of the three.
Will it continue? This team has talent; enough to match last year's 25 wins. The problem is they are off 25-win season as oppose to the 15-15 mark they posted in 2011. With an
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College Basketball ATS Analysis: Creighton Blue Jays continue to cover spreads
12.10.2012 07:47 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.
Creighton Blue Jays:
What makes Creighton’s 7-1 ATS record unique is that preseason expectations were very high. This is a team that won 29 games last season and returned practically everyone including their star, Doug McDermott. So how have they been able to make their backers money? Amazingly, it’s been defense. We mentioned last season’s 29 wins yet the Blue Jays were a .500 team against the spread – in large part because they couldn’t defend. Creighton allowed over a point per possessions, didn’t force turnovers, and simply outscored the competition – something they were very good at – in order to win. This season, despite more than a few inflated pointspreads, the Blue Jays are actually defending. After returning home from a Thanksgiving tournament, Creighton was blitzed at home by Boise State, 83-70. But what they’ve done since
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College Basketball ATS Analysis: Charlotte 49ers are making noise
12.10.2012 07:40 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.
Charlotte 49ers:
Head coach Alan Major's third season is off to a great start at 9-0 SU, 6-1 ATS. Expectations were modest heading into the campaign with a handful of newcomers and second-year players expected to contribute. The key for the 49ers has been depth with 8-10 guys seeing consistent minutes. That has allowed Major to play more pressure defense and the results have showed with no opponent topping 69 points despite all but one contest featuring 65 possessions or more.
Will it continue? The level of competition hasn't been great but the 49ers did win outright at Davidson as 9-point underdogs. Of course they beat the Wildcats by 13 last year, started A-10 play off 2-0 with wins against Richmond and St. Joe's, but crashed hard the second half of the season (4-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS). This year's edition is clearly more talented so we don't project that big of a slide. The benefit
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Butler Bulldogs at Northwestern Wildcats
12.08.2012 08:39 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Butler
at
Northwestern
-1.5 O/U 128.5
Recommendation: Under
I view Northwestern's 74-point, 68-possession performance at Baylor last time out as an outlier of what we can expect from the Wildcats for much of the season. Prior to that, in games against TCU, Illinois State, Maryland and UIC, Northwestern failed to top a point per possession or shoot over 45% eFG%. I made a play on Northwestern/Maryland UNDER the other day and was done in by a wild flurry of points from the Terps to start the second half. For 35 minutes, that contest played in the low 120's. And that is what I expect to see tonight against Butler. Of those four previously mentioned teams, the Bulldogs play arguably the best team defense of the bunch. Meaning, they aren't going to get carved up by Northwestern's backdoor cuts or consistently allow them open looks from three. This contest may not even top 60 possessions. If that's the case, then both teams are going to need to have above average
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Vanderbilt Commodores at Xavier Musketeers
12.06.2012 07:53 AM
Andrew Lange
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Vanderbilt
at
Xavier
-11 O/U 129
Recommendation: Under
Vanderbilt is in an obvious rebuilding year and as a result we've seen a dramatic change in style. The Commodores have really struggled to score and have no choice but to try and slow down the pace of their games. Their last four contests have featured 62, 60, 62, and 62 possessions. Bottom line is Vanderbilt is not going to win any games by outscoring the competition. Xavier too went through a lot of offseason transformation and as a result isn't comfortable playing at the pace of previous editions. The Musketeers played a few moderate scoring affairs on neutral courts but I looked to home games against Butler and Robert Morris as a better indication of how this team will play tonight. Against the Bulldogs, Xavier grinded out a 62-47 win with only 57 possessions. Against Robert Morris, a similar result with a 61-59 win and only 59 possessions. Last time out against Purdue, it was another ugly affair with
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