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College Basketball Betting Update: Texas Longhorns continue their OVER the total run

03.05.2013     06:14 AM     Printer Friendly

Another game another OVER for Texas as last night's game against Baylor hit 149 points. It got dicey for a while with the score 125 with a little over two minutes remaining. But fouls and free throws the rest of the way helped bettors cash yet another ticket with the opening (137) and closing (139) numbers.

Defensively, it marked the seventh game in a row (all with Myck Kabongo) that Texas allowed over a point per possession (1.10). The Longhorns offset that with one of their better offensive games of the season with 79 points, 1.24 ppp, and 58.3% eFG. It doesn't look like UT's regular season finale vs. Texas Tech will be nationally televised which means the totals market will be made up of just a few shops with small limits. Most bettors will have to wait until the first round of next week's Big XII Tournament to continue riding the Texas Over Train.

College Basketball Handicapping: Texas a completely different Read more

Tags: College Basketball Texas Longhorns

College Basketball Handicapping: Texas a completely different team with Kabongo

03.04.2013     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
During non-conference play, Texas allowed more than a point per possession just once – it somehow came in the Longhorns' infamous loss to Chaminade. And there went more than a handful of quality opponents during that stretch including Georgetown, UCLA, North Carolina, and Michigan State. Heading into Big XII play, Texas had one of the better defenses in the country. When conference play began, Texas remained above average, holding six of its first 10 league opponents to under a point per possession. But then in mid-February, guard Myck Kabongo became eligible and Texas' identity started to change. For starters, Texas started playing at a slightly faster pace and put the ball in the bucket with more frequency. But while scoring was up with Kabongo on the floor, the defense was way down. In Texas' first 23 games, without Kabongo, they allowed over a point per possession only five times. With Kabongo (6 games) they've allowed the following: 1.06, 1.08, 1.06, 1.25, 1.14, and 1.05. The betting markets have clearly picked up on this little trend. Check out the opening and close numbers for Texas' three lined games with Kabongo in the lineup.

vs. Oklahoma Read more

Tags: College Basketball Texas Longhorns

Teddy Covers' Who Has What It Takes to Win the NCAA Tournament in 2013 Part I

03.04.2013     07:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion.  I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA National Champion among my elite level teams.  Last year was no exception.  I pegged Kansas as my title team, and they made it all the way to the national championship game against Kentucky before falling short.

Past predictions do not necessarily indicate future success, but I’ll stand by my track record in this article.  Remember, as always, this gets written before the regular season is over, before the conference tournaments, before the seedings are announced and before a single tournament game has been played.

I’ve nailed the winner of the NCAA tournament three times in the last six years, correctly predicting Florida in ’07, Kansas in ’08 and North Carolina in ’09.  I did NOT predict Duke in 2010, and didn’t even have UConn in the discussion in 2011.  

Here is a list of the last 15 NCAA champions and the teams they beat in the title game: Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99, Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting: Baylor tries to bounce back after losing heartbreaker to K-State

03.04.2013     07:28 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baylor -1.5 at Texas O/U 138

We don't spend a lot of time sweating Bubble Talk or Last Four In/Out discussion but it's pretty apparent Baylor recent slide (3-7 SU) has them on the outside looking in when it comes to an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Heading into tonight's game against Texas, the Bears sport an RPI ranking of 60th and need to beat Texas and Kansas in order to secure a winning record in Big XII play. Head coach Scott Drew is of course saying all the right things and trying to stay positive, but the way Saturday's game against Kansas State went down (see video below) there has to be some concerns about whether or not this squad can bounce back.

“I think we’ve got a group of guys that have bounced back all year long, and I expect

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Baylor Bears Texas Longhorns

College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies

03.03.2013     08:12 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Washington State at Washington -7 O/U 130.5
Recommendation: Over

It’s certainly been a different type of season for the Washington Huskies who have now uncharacteristically rattled off six consecutive unders. Decreased tempo and miserable shooting (42.5 FG%, 29.5 3pt%) in PAC-12 play have been the root causes of UW’s scoring troubles. Today’s opponent Washington State has seen their defensive efforts gradually descend to the point where they’ve now allowed an average of 73.6 ppg over its last seven games and 67 or more in all of those. Despite fewer possessions in the games during this span, five of the contests have climbed over today’s posted total. Expect Washington, which recorded a conference season high 53% from the field in the first meeting, to be able to post a similar number here. The game scenario figures to be one where the late game margin is one that will breed extra trips to the free throw line and quick possessions which should tack points on. Washington should be ready to go here as they kick off a regular season ending three-game homestand and like WSU, their defense has been weak lately allowing between 47%-49% shooting in three of their last four games. The lower mid-range total of 130.5 is in an area that presents enough leeway to cash a ticket on the over.  

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Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Washington State Cougars Rob Veno

College Basketball Betting Recap: Overrated Arizona Loses Again, Gets Swept by UCLA

03.03.2013     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I guess this has become a mini-series. Arizona is now 5-12 ATS in Pac 12 play…2-0 vs. Washington State and 3-12 vs. everybody else. They were already set to sink from their lofty (and inexplicable) #11 ranking in the AP poll because of a loss earlier this week at USC. Will this kick them out of the top 20? Will Joe Lunardi finally drop them below a #4 seed in his Bracketology?

Before tonight’s loss, Kenpom had them at #19, Jeff Sagarin at #24. And, those were heavily influenced by the strong start Arizona had to its season. Since Pac 12 play began, they’ve been a continual disappointment. They now have SIX losses in league play. And, it’s not a great league. It’s a competitive league…but because of depth of #10-seed type teams not because of greatness.

Here are the numbers.

UCLA 74, Arizona 69

2-Point Percentage: Arizona 44%, UCLA 49%

3-Point Shooting: Arizona 10/22, UCLA 7/17

Free Read more

Tags: College Basketball Arizona Wildcats UCLA Bruins Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: SMU Mustangs at UAB Blazers

03.02.2013     08:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
SMU at UAB -5.5
Recommendation: UAB

UAB got off to a sluggish start to C-USA play in part because six of its first seven games were against the top five teams in the conference. During that span they were overwhelmed at times but towards the end of that stretch we saw some potential as the Blazers beat UTEP and lost to a quality Southern Miss squad by four. Once the schedule got softer, UAB was able to parlay those experiences and pointspread value into a current 5-1 SU/ATS run. Some of that value has worn off but the fact remains, this is a much improved team, playing its best of the season, at home, against a weak opponent.

"If you plan it, I was planning a few more wins earlier in the year," Haase said. "This is the time to be playing the best basketball and that certainly is the case for us. We've been continuing to get better every year."

SMU has been competitive in Larry Brown's first season but they don't have much Read more

Tags: College Basketball UAB Blazers SMU Mustangs Andrew Lange

Former San Diego hoops player will do time for point shaving

03.02.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
Former San Diego guard Brandon Johnson was sentenced to six months in prison for his role in a point shaving scheme. He did however provide us with one of the greatest quotes of all time...

"Coach was like, how you ain't get a shot up," Johnson is quoted in the transcription of a call. "I'm in the locker room, like, 'You can say what you want, but that's a G ($1,000) right there.' "

Tags: College Basketball San Diego Toreros

College Basketball Handicapping: Four teams vying for two spots in OVC Tournament

03.01.2013     02:21 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
The OVC regular season ends Saturday and while five of the eight conference tournament seeds are locked up, there are four teams fighting for the two remaining spots. Only eight of the league’s 12 teams participate in its postseason event so four will be staying home (Jacksonville State is banned from this year’s tournament due to their low APR score (academic progress rating) and Austin Peay has been eliminated. Here are the top five seeds for next week’s OVC Tournament:

#1 – Belmont
#2 – Murray State
#3 – Eastern Kentucky
#4 – Tennessee State
#5 – Morehead State
#6 – SEMO

With the stage set for what could be a drama filled Saturday, let’s take a look at the games of importance:

SIU-Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois – The winner of this game is in. If SIU-Edwardsville loses, they can still get in if Tennessee-Martin loses at Austin Peay. Should Eastern Illinois lose, they would need Tennessee Tech and Tennessee-Martin to both lose. EIU has designated this a “Blue Out” game encouraging all fans to come dressed in blue and help the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds at Iona Gaels

03.01.2013     12:29 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Loyola Maryland +4.5 at Iona
Recommendation: Loyola-Maryland

Iona has fallen on hard times in recent weeks. The Gaels were picked to contend for the MAAC regular season title but they’ve struggled to 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games which has them in the middle of the pack at 9-7. Iona is on a money burning 0-3 ATS mark as favorites in their last three games. The Gaels are very potent offensively averaging over 80 points per game on 45.1% shooting but defensive deficiencies continue to hurt – 76.2 ppg allowed on 43.4% shooting and a woeful 37.1% from the perimeter in their last five games. Asking a team that is having a tough time getting stops on the defensive end of the court to win by margin against a revenge-minded, quality foe like Loyola-Maryland is not something I’m willing to do!

Loyola Maryland is 11-5 in conference play and still has a chance win the MAAC regular season title as they enter the weekend just a half Read more

Tags: College Basketball Loyola Maryland Greyhounds Iona Gaels Ian Cameron


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