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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview

03.26.2012     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen 64 NCAA Tournament teams get eliminated from the field, leaving only the Final Four remaining with a chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans next Monday.

College hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy breaks down the four teams chances to win the title as follows: Kentucky 42%, Ohio State 34%, Kansas 17% and Louisville 7%. From my perspective, if John Calipari’s Wildcats play as well next weekend as they did this past weekend, that 42% chance of a title looks pretty darn low.

That being said, it’s going to be very hard for Kentucky to match their near flawless offensive performances in wins over Baylor and Indiana. The Wildcats have scored a ridiculous 220 points in their last 163 possessions; a 1.35 points per possession ratio. Those are not sustainable numbers, even for a team that closed out the weekend ranked #2 in the country (behind only Missouri) with 1.17 points per possession average.

Both Final Four games are rematches of non-conference affairs from earlier in the season. The talking heads on TV are sure to bring up this angle ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that neither affair had a Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Odds: Kentucky a -128 favorite to win championship

03.26.2012     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
Saturday's Final Four in New Orleans is set and not surprising, Kentucky is the betting favorite to win it all.

Current Lines
Louisville vs. Kentucky -8.5 O/U 138.5
Ohio State -2.5 vs. Kansas O/U 136.5

Pinnacle Championship Futures
Kentucky -128
Ohio State +281
Kansas +499
Louisville +1150




Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Louisville Cardinals




CIT Semifinal Betting Preview: Oakland Grizzlies at Utah State Aggies

03.25.2012     10:37 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland at Utah State -5 O/U 150

We’re off a 3-0 college basketball sweep Saturday and we’ll fire at the CollegeInsider.com tournament on Sunday. Utah State (20-15) hosts high-scoring Oakland (20-15) in semifinal action. The Aggies have won all three of their home games in CIT action and head coach Stew Morrill is one of the best; especially at the Spectrum in Logan, Utah. The Aggies are 16-4 on their home court this season and 67-5 the past four regular seasons. And in the favorite role up to -13, Utah State has covered over 60% of its last 110 games at home.

Big contrast in styles and the Aggies will face a tough challenge slowing down the nation’s leading scorer, Oakland guard Reggie Hamilton (26 ppg). The high-scoring Grizzlies push the pace and launch the three-balls while scoring over 79 ppg. Hamilton is the key as his dribble-drives create plenty of scoring for himself and teammates and he also hits 42% from the arch and 88% from Read more


Tags: College Basketball Oakland Grizzlies Utah State Aggies __




Elite Eight Gambling Notes: UNC's Marshall still questionable vs. Kansas

03.25.2012     07:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas -2 vs. North Carolina O/U 143

Transcribed interview with North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall discussing the status of his surgically repaired wrist. According to Sports Options, he is currently questionable for this afternoon's Elite Eight matchup vs. Kansas. With Marshall, the Tar Heels committed 24 turnovers in their 73-65 overtime win over Ohio on Friday.


On believing he could make enough progress in 24 hours to play ...

KM: "I do. I've gotten better every single day, which is a positive. Not just for the game, but for my health in general. If I were to make a huge jump and be healthy enough to contribute to my team, then there's a chance I could play tomorrow."





Tags: College Basketball North Carolina Tar Heels Kansas Jayhawks




NCAA Tournament Betting Notes: Kentucky playing up-tempo in postseason

03.25.2012     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baylor vs. Kentucky -8 O/U 147.5

Article discussing how both Baylor and Kentucky prefer to play at a fast pace. After averaging only 62 possessions per game in SEC play, the Wildcats have played to 70, 67and 73 possessions in the NCAA Tournament.


"Do you want to play slow or fast?'' he asked them on the podium during Saturday's news conference.

"Fast,'' Kentucky senior guard Darius Miller said.

"Huh. If they play the way they enjoy playing, they're going to play better,'' Calipari said. "They just are. They're going to be more comfortable. I trust these players. We had six turnovers and we scored 102 points. I know they're going to make good decisions. The only time they don't is when I leave them on the court too long.''

Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Baylor Bears




Friday's NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Betting Breakdown

03.23.2012     08:30 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly


Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno




NCAA Tournament Betting Alert: UNC's Marshall unlikely to play vs. Ohio

03.23.2012     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Ohio vs. North Carolina -10.5 O/U 142.5

It looks very unlikely that North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall will play in tonight's Sweet Sixteen matchup against Ohio.


"I really don't know. I have a strong, strong inclination that he's not going to play….If he comes into my room tomorrow and says 'Hey, my wrist feels great' and drops down on the floor and does ten one-handed push ups on his right hand, then I'd say I'd probably play his rear-end. But I don't expect that to happen, I mean the guy can't brush his teeth right now."





Tags: College Basketball North Carolina Tar Heels Ohio Bobcats




NCAA Tournament Tips: How accurate have the betting markets been?

03.23.2012     06:22 AM     Printer Friendly
Taking a look at how accurate the betting markets have been the last two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Based on the opening and closing lines at CRIS, the market went 11-6 against the spread in the third round and last night's Sweet Sixteen. In three instances, games opened and closed at the same number. Of the 20 games, the straight up winner covered 15 times. Underdogs went 10-9 ATS (Wisconsin beat Vanderbilt as a pick 'em). Money went with the favorites 12 times, of which the market went 7-5 ATS. Money went with the underdog five times, of which the market went 4-1 ATS.

NCAA Tournament Betting Market Moves as of 3/23/2012
3rd Round Matchup
CRIS Opener
CRIS Closer
ATS Winner
Market Correct?
Kentucky vs. Iowa State
Kentucky -10.5
Kentucky -12
Kentucky
Yes
Indiana vs. VCU
Indiana -5
Indiana -5.5
VCU
No
Colorado vs. Baylor
Baylor -7
Baylor -8
Baylor
Yes
Xavier vs. Lehigh
Xavier -2.5
Xavier -4
Xavier
Yes
Michigan State vs. Saint Louis
Michigan State -6
Michigan State -7
Saint Louis
No
New Mexico vs. Louisville
Louisville -1
Louisville -2
Louisville
Yes
Murray State vs. Marquette
Marquette -4.5
Marquette -5
Marquette
Yes
Florida vs. Norfolk State
Florida -15
Florida -14
Florida
No
Syracuse vs. Kansas State
Syracyse -5.5
Syracuse -6
Syracuse
Yes
Vanderbilt vs. Wisconsin
Vanderbilt -1
Vanderbilt pk
Wisconsin
Yes
Cincinnati vs. Florida State
Florida State -1.5
Florida State -2
Cincinnati
No
Gonzaga vs. Ohio State
Ohio State -7
Ohio State -7.5
Gonzaga
No
North Carolina vs. Creighton
North Carolina -9
North Carolina -9.5
North Carolina
Yes
South Florida vs. Ohio
South Florida -4
South Florida -2.5
Ohio
Yes
NC State vs. Georgetown
Georgetown -4
Georgetown -4
NC State
N/A
Purdue vs. Kansas
Kansas -8
Kansas -8
Purdue
N/A
Sweet 16 Matchup
CRIS Opener
CRIS Closer
ATS Winner
Market Correct?
Syracuse vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse -4
Syracuse -3
Wisconsin
Yes
Ohio State vs. Cincinnati
Ohio State -7.5
Ohio State -7.5
Ohio State
N/A
Marquette vs. Florida
Marquette -2
Marquette -1.5
Florida
Yes
Michigan State vs. Louisville
Michigan State -4.5
Michigan State -5.5
Louisville
No
Indiana vs. Kentucky
Kentucky -8
 
 
 
Xavier vs. Baylor
Baylor -6
 
 
 
Ohio vs. North Carolina
North Carolina -10.5
 
 
 
NC State vs. Kansas
Kansas -8
 
 
 




Tags: College Basketball




Sweet Sixteen Betting Notes: Syracuse wants to avoid slow paced game vs. Wisconsin

03.22.2012     10:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisconsin vs. Syracuse -3 O/U 120

Syracuse claims it will look to push the pace in tonight's Sweet Sixteen matchup against Wisconsin.  Note that against up-tempo BYU, North Carolina, Marquette, UNLV and Indiana, the Badgers played to 60, 61, 63, 62, 54 and 61 possessions.


“In the Big East we were able to play both (styles),” SU guard Brandon Triche said. “We had a few games playing in the 50s. A lot of teams tried to slow us down. I think the biggest thing for us is being able to rebound, try to speed them up a little bit as much as we can.”

“We just have to get the ball and push it and try to beat them down the court,” Fair said. “Then we have to convert on a lot of our offensive trips and not make silly turnovers.”

Read more


Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange Wisconsin Badgers




College Basketball Gambling: NIT, CBI and CIT Power Ratings

03.22.2012     10:13 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NIT
The conference may have been rightfully ridiculed and rightfully left out of the NCAA Tournament this season but they dominated the NIT. Washington and Stanford make up half of the semifinal field at MSG next week. They perhaps could have had a third team had Oregon not faced the Huskies in the quarterfinals. Note that Washington and Stanford have never had to leave their home floors but NIT Committee head C.M. Newton – a good ol’ SEC boy – tried his best to push his own through as well by giving Tennessee (#1 seed), Ole Miss (#2 seed) and Mississippi State home floor – none of which prospered despite the advantage. After all the deserved PAC-12 bashing this season they deserve some credit with their NIT performances, now let's see if they can continue to earn more by winning away from home against a pair of red-hot teams.

Here are my power ratings lines for the Semifinals:

Minnesota -1 vs. Washington
Stanford -1 vs. Massachusetts

CBI
Despite losing their leading scorer Brock Motum just two minutes into last night's game, Washington State won at Oregon State and will now host Read more


Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno



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