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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Valparaiso Crusaders at Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

02.19.2013     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Valparaiso -6 at Loyola Chicago
Recommendation: Valparaiso

Loyola has been an overvalued commodity for much of the season at home. Prior to Saturday's win over rival UIC, the Ramblers failed to cover six straight at the Gentile Center. Tonight they play host to an opponent in Valparaiso that is eager for a big win. To start, the Crusaders are looking for payback after losing on their home court to the Ramblers back in early January. Second, after blowing Saturday's game against Detroit, Valpo's lead in the conference standings is only a half game. But the real key to this game is the health of Loyola’s Cully Payne and Ben Averkamp. Loyola managed a "hump up effort" without the duo against weaker UIC. Tonight against a far better opponent, their absence could be magnified. In the first meeting, Payne and Averkamp combined for 30 points and 12 assists. As of this morning, Payne (thumb) is doubtful and Averkamp (concussion) is questionable. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Valparaiso Crusaders Loyola-Chicago Ramblers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: Updated Power Conference Power Ratings 2/19

02.19.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Using posted pointspreads from the past few days (including the openers for Tuesday night), I’ve updated our estimates of how “the market” currently has teams from all six major conferences rated. I’m using a standard 4 points for home court advantage. In cases where it seems the market is making clear distinctions for a home/road split (like with Missouri), I’ve posted a road entry and a home entry for that handful of teams.

These aren’t my personal ratings (I’d have Duke and Arizona probably about 3 points lower apiece for example...but I'm stubborn that way). This is how the market as a composite looks to be rating everyone.

Estimated Power Ratings Based on Market Prices (Six Major Conferences)

88: Indiana (home)

87: Indiana (road), Florida

86: Louisville

85: Syracuse, Michigan

84: Duke, Pittsburgh, Michigan State

83: Kansas

82: Miami, Minnesota (home), Arizona, Ohio Read more

Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Handicapping: Virginia looks to bounce back defensively vs. Miami

02.19.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Virginia at Miami-FL -7.5 O/U 116.5

Through the first 20 games of the season, Virginia allowed a point per possession or more in only four games. The Cavaliers have allowed that in three of their last five including a dismal 1.34 ppp in Saturday's 93-81 loss to North Carolina. According to this article, the Cavaliers are eager to get back to their grind-it-out, defensive-minded ways tonight at Miami.

“Our system is gonna stay the same. We don’t need to adjust anything. It’s what got us in this position with winning as many games as we have,” forward Akil Mitchell added. “But our mind-set has to be different. We have to come out a lot more focused, a lot more poised than we

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Virginia Cavaliers Miami (FL) Hurricanes

College Basketbal Betting: Missouri Tigers seek revenge over Florida Gators

02.19.2013     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Florida -5 at Missouri O/U 138

Missouri with revenge on its mind after getting waxed by Florida back in January, 83-52. The Gators shot 68% from 2-point range and forced 21 turnovers in the win. Note that in the first meeting, the Tigers were without Laurence Bowers (14 ppg, 6 rpg) while the Gators had Will Yeguete who finished with 13 points on 6-of-7 shooting. Bowers is now back while Yeguete is out with a knee injury.

“They kicked our butts,” Oriakhi admitted with a laugh on Monday. “I’m not going to lie to you, we want revenge. We obviously want to show we’re one of the best teams in America.”

Tags: College Basketball Missouri Tigers Florida Gators

College Basketball Gambling: Wyoming's Washington doubtful vs. San Diego State

02.18.2013     12:53 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
According to Twitter, it looks like Wyoming's Leonard Washington (ankle) is doubtful for Tuesday's game against San Diego State. It's yet another key injury for the Cowboys who lost leading scorer Luke Martinez (suspended) back in late December. With Martinez, Wyoming started the season 8-1 ATS. But without him and since the start of Mountain West play, the Cowboys are only 4-8 ATS. Also note that forward Larry Nance Jr., who has gone five straight league games without scoring double-digits, has been nursing a bum wrist.

@Ben_Fred - Shyatt said Leonard Washington still has swelling and pain in left ankle. Won't play unless there's a "miraculous recovery."

Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys San Diego State Aztecs

College Basketball Handicapping: Ohio State and Minnesota embarrassed on the road

02.18.2013     08:29 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

After getting caught flatfooted last Sunday in an early start against Indiana in Columbus, the Ohio State Buckeyes showed they learned NOTHING from the experience by coming out even more flat today at Wisconsin.

Early Wisconsin leads:

15:33 Wisconsin 12, Ohio State 6

14:08: Wisconsin 18, Ohio State 6

11:59: Wisconsin 20, Ohio State 6

9:22: Wisconsin 22, Ohio State 6

8:35 Wisconsin 27, Ohio State 8

3:46: Wisconsin 34, Ohio State 14

The Badgers had a couple of dry spells in there that were just begging Ohio State to get back in the game. Wasn’t going to happen. Ohio State wasn’t getting many good looks…and they were impatiently racing through bad looks because they could feel the game getting away from them.

Something to remember if Ohio State gets early tips in the Big 10 tournament or in the Big Dance. You might think two games is a small sample size. Well, okay…it’s obviously a Read more

Tags: College Basketball Ohio State Buckeyes Minnesota Golden Gophers Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Betting: Rutgers adjusts to life without leading scorer Carter

02.18.2013     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Rutgers at Villanova -10 O/U 130.5

Rutgers' leading scorer Eli Carter will miss the remainder of the season after breaking his leg in Saturday's loss to DePaul. Head coach Mike Rice said that the team may go with a bigger lineup moving forward. For the last two seasons, Carter was the focal point of the offense – albeit an inefficient one. Carter shot just 38% from the floor and 32% from three. He also led the team in turnovers at nearly three per game. Part of that was out of necessity but his departure could open the door for more looks from Myles Mack (13.2 ppg, 50% FGs) and Wally Judge (7.1 ppg, 52% FGs) and others.

“We’ll tweak some things,” Rice said. “If you give Myles and Jerome those

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Rutgers Scarlet Knights Villanova Wildcats

College Basketball Gambling: Notre Dame has owned Pittsburgh of late

02.18.2013     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh -10 O/U 122.5

Notre Dame's "burn offense" has been a thorn in Pittsburgh's side over the last three years. The Irish have won four straight in the series – all as an underdog – entering tonight's meeting at the Petersen Events Center.

2011: Notre Dame (+3) 72, Pitt 59 - UNDER 131.5
2011: Notre Dame (+10.5) 56, Pitt 51 - UNDER 136
2010: Notre Dame (+2) 50, Pitt 45 - UNDER 126
2010: Notre Dame (+1) 68, Pitt 53 - UNDER 139

“They kind of wore us down, got shots at the end of the shot clock and got some pretty good looks,” Woodall said. “It's hard to stop a team who runs the clock all the way down from 35 to three and hits either a 3 or gets a shot off and, once they get the rebound, run the clock down some more. We've just got to try

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pittsburgh Panthers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet college basketball in February

02.18.2013     07:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance. In between? This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!

The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about morphing teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative. There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.

Who are some of these teams? Why are they morphing now? Read on to find out!

I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great. Georgetown certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests. The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in Read more

Tags: College Basketball Georgetown Hoyas Saint Louis Billikens Air Force Falcons UNLV Running Rebels Wyoming Cowboys Creighton Blue Jays Michigan Wolverines Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats

02.17.2013     08:37 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Illinois -3.5 at Northwestern O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Under

Have to respect the job Northwestern head coach Bill Carmody has done with his injury plagued squad this season. Despite losing top scorer Drew Crawford early on and then key starting forward Jared Swopshire last week, the Wildcats were able to hang in until the closing minute and get an easy pointspread cover at Ohio State Wednesday night. Today the task becomes even more difficult as starting center Alex Olah will not play (head injury) and starting guard Reggie Hearn (ankle) will likely play at less than 100%. Olah is crucial to NU’s Princeton style attack since he’s used as a high screener and primary passer away from the basket. His abilities in those areas will again force the Wildcats to adjust offensively. Always patient and deliberate on the attack end, expect Northwestern to be even more methodical in this contest by milking every possession. Also figure the ‘Cats to Read more

Tags: College Basketball Illinois Fighting Illini Northwestern Wildcats Rob Veno


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