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College Basketball Gambling: DePaul's struggles to cover short lined games continue

02.06.2013     07:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
During last night’s game against Villanova, I was skimming through DePaul's stats from this year and last. Sportsmemo Posting Forum member Collect on Tuesday noted that the Blue Demons should feature more Cleveland Melvin and less Brandon Young on offense – a concept I can’t argue with. But as a whole, over the last two years, it looks like Young and Melvin – while certainly not ultra-efficient – are putting up comparable numbers in terms of possessions/shots used and success rate. So why has DePaul’s offense vs. the Big East declined so much? DePaul averaged nearly a point per possession in Big East play in 2012 which for a 3-15 team isn't bad. This year, they are well below that (0.93) and some of it is nothing more than an inability to knock down threes -- especially from their secondary players.

Check out how this trio of players was from three last year
Moses Morgan 2012: 54-139 .388
Jeremiah Kelly 2012: 50-149 .336
Jamee Crockett 2012: 41-109 .376
86 games: 145-397 .365

Now check them Read more


Tags: College Basketball DePaul Blue Demons Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin's crazy season from the charity stripe

02.06.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Through nine Big Ten games, Wisconsin totals are 2-7 O/U. Last season in Big Ten play – with the help of two overtime games – the Badgers actually trended OVER the total at 11-7 O/U. The reason? There were a few but the key was free throws. Everyone is well aware UW’s horrific season from the free throw line (61.5% overall, 56.2% vs. Big Ten). But it’s also their inability to get to the line that is helping their games go under the total. That is until this occurred. Prior to the Illinois game, UW put extra emphasis in practice on trying to draw fouls. Amazingly, they went from not shooting a single free throw vs. Ohio State to 42 vs. Illinois.

Wisconsin rarely if ever strays away from a slow tempo and hard-nosed defense. But with totals routinely in the 115-125 range, free throws, or lack thereof can make a big difference. Take a look these numbers...

2012 (11-7 O/U)
16.7 FT attempts per game vs. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting: Florida continues to dominate the SEC

02.04.2013     08:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida is off to an 8-0 start in SEC play and finally failed to cover a pointspread in Saturday's 78-64 win over Ole Miss (+18). Make no mistake, the Gators were in complete control of that game and allowed the Rebels to slip through the backdoor with less than two minutes to go. Statistically, what Florida is doing right now is sick with an average scoring margin of +26.5 vs. conference foes. They are allowing 0.77 points per possession which means in a normal 65 possession game, UF's opponents average about 50 points.

When the Gators won the National Championship in 2006-07, they started conference play 11-0 and had wins by 16, 34, 25, and 16. They eventually cooled off and finished the regular season 4-3 SU and 1-7 ATS. That was a really good team but statistically, this year’s version is at this point far superior. Ken Pom points out that what Florida is doing this season is (somehow) not unprecedented. Pomeroy feels that the Gators will lose at least one and maybe even two league games. They play at Missouri in two weeks and close out the regular season in Read more


Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Idaho State at North Dakota

02.02.2013     09:14 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Idaho State at North Dakota -7
Recommendation: North Dakota


Since 2009, when asked to play back-to-back road games in Big Sky play with only one day of rest, Idaho State is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS. Seven of those 10 losses came by more than seven points, tonight’s line against North Dakota. This shouldn’t come as a shock seeing as the Bengals have been Big Sky bottom feeders for quite some time and travel within the league can be brutal. Here they go from Greeley, Colorado (lost to Northern Colorado by 15 on Thursday) to Grand Forks, North Dakota – I can’t confirm but I seriously doubt they chartered a flight but instead like most mid-major schools, took commercial flights sprinkled in with a few hours on a bus. North Dakota isn’t a great team but we’ve seen signs its home court is going to be tough on opposing teams. In mid-January, the (they no longer have a team nickname for PC reasons) rolled off three straight home Read more


Tags: College Basketball Idaho State Bengals North Dakota Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Loyola Marymount Lions

01.31.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount +16 O/U 142
Recommendation: Loyola Marymount


As bad as Loyola Marymount's record looks, with the exception of a 92-51 loss at BYU (Cougars were in a huge revenge spot), they've been competitive more often than not in West Coast Conference play. They went to St. Mary's and lost by 13 and their other four WCC losses were by single digits. Note that they also managed to slip in a home win over a quality Santa Clara squad. And go back even further and we saw the Lions at home catching +10 against Ole Miss only to lose by three. Over the last six meetings in the series, the highest pointspread was Gonzaga -16.5...in Spokane. In their last three trips to Los Angeles, the Zags were laying -10.5 (won by 4), -9 (won by 10), and -11.5 (lost outright). Another key factor is the prep time. LMU head coach Max Good admitted that star Anthony Ireland has been worn down of late. The Lions had a full week of rest and prepare for the league's Read more


Tags: College Basketball Gonzaga Bulldogs Loyola Marymount Lions Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal

01.30.2013     12:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon at Stanford -2 O/U 139
Recommendation: Over


Last time out, without starting point guard Dominic Artis, Oregon scored 81 points in an up-tempo, 76 possession game against Washington. I don't think we'll see those types of numbers tonight but it's clear that from a tempo standpoint, even without Artis, the Ducks are going to continue to run.


"We need to keep running," Altman said. "That suits us and helps us with our depth. If we're going to play nine or 10 guys, we've got to make sure we're pressing the other team."



Stanford has been up and down all season but we've seen the Cardinal push tempo with a willing partner. Games against USC, UCLA and Colorado featured an average of 70 possessions. The problem for Stanford has been an inconsistent offense. I expect them to pressure Read more


Tags: College Basketball Oregon Ducks Stanford Cardinal Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Oregon State Beavers at USC Trojans

01.19.2013     07:03 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon State +5.5 at USC
Recommendation: Oregon State


Not sure that USC is ready to lay -5.5 in a conference game. The Trojans performed well and expended a lot of energy in Thursday's loss to Oregon. They played at a faster tempo and showed a variety of different defenses under interim head coach Bob Cantu. My issue is while practice may be more enjoyable to go to with Kevin O’Neill gone; this is still an average PAC-12 team void of a significant home court advantage or ability to pull away from teams of comparable ability. After beating UC Riverside 70-26, USC lost at home to UC Irvine, Cal, and Oregon. Their wins in LA were by two against Stanford and by two, in overtime, against Dayton. Oregon State is winless in PAC-12 play in part because they've played the best three teams in the league (Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA) and also because of suspensions. Tonight they’re expected to be at full strength with Eric Moreland (10.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg) Read more


Tags: College Basketball Oregon State Beavers USC Trojans Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Betting Free Play: South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Western Illinois Leathernecks

01.17.2013     08:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
South Dakota State at Western Illinois -2.5
Recommendation: Western Illinois


You think Western Illinois has had tonight's game against South Dakota State circled? Last year, the Jackrabbits not only beat the Leathernecks three times but one of those games was by single point and the other was in overtime in the Summit League Championship game. WIU is an experienced team with a decent home court. You go back to last year and three of their conference losses in Macomb were by 1 (vs. SDSU), 1 (double OT) and 4 (double OT). This season, they are a perfect 8-0 at rinky-dink Western Hall and tonight marks arguably the biggest game the program has had under Jim Molinari. South Dakota State is a good team as seen by road wins at Montana and New Mexico. But there were also some bad losses, most notably at Hofstra and at South Dakota. Defensively is where these two teams differ. SDSU has had difficulty at times whereas WIU puts much more emphasis on Read more


Tags: College Basketball Western Illinois Leathernecks South Dakota State Jackrabbits Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting: BYU's struggles against strong competition continue

01.17.2013     07:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last night, BYU lost on a buzzer beater to St. Mary's, 70-69. It marked yet another failed attempt for the Cougars to pick up a marquee victory. Over the last two seasons, BYU has had an incredibly difficult time stepping up in class. Check out the results against St. Mary's and Gonzaga...

BYU -5 vs. St. Mary's - 70-69 Loss
BYU +2.5 vs. Gonzaga - 77-58 Loss
BYU +6.5 at Gonzaga - 74-63 Loss
BYU -3.5 vs. Gonzaga - 83-73 Win
BYU -2.5 vs. St. Mary's - 80-66 Loss
BYU +4 at St. Mary's - 98-82 Loss

That's 1-5 SU/ATS. And if we include better than average power conference teams, there are even more failures.

2012-13
BYU -2 vs. Florida State - 88-70 Loss
BYU +3 vs. Notre Dame - 78-68 Loss
BYU +4 at Iowa State - 83-62 Loss
BYU +7 at Baylor - 79-64 Loss

2011-12
BYU +5 vs. Marquette - 88-68 Loss
BYU -4 vs. Baylor - 86-83 Loss
BYU +7.5 vs. Wisconsin - 73-56 Loss

If we stretch the parameters a little, there were SU/ATS wins against Oregon (infant stages of Dana Altman's first season) and at Virginia Tech (Hokies finished 16-17). Still, BYU's track record against strong competition is Read more


Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: NC State Wolfpack at Maryland Terrapins

01.16.2013     02:43 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NC State at Maryland -1.5 O/U 149
Recommendation: Over


Maryland has not been shy about its desire to play up-tempo with both home games in ACC play hitting the 70 possessions mark. And tonight, the Terps have talked about making a change at the point guard position, putting Nick Faust in place of the offensively inept Pe'Shon Howard.


The Terps are searching for a spark, and Faust may just oblige, allowing Maryland to work a little faster offensively. Since Faust doesn’t know all the set plays at point guard, teammate Logan Aronhalt said, the Terps might adjust with more quick-hitters, searching for easy, fast buckets.



NC State is in no way an elite level defense. In half of the Wolfpack's games, they've allowed 1.03 points per possession or more. Check out Read more


Tags: College Basketball NC State Wolfpack Maryland Terrapins Andrew Lange



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