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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Initial thoughts on the East Region

03.17.2014     07:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NCAA Tournament field is set and like most bettors, Sunday night is spent skimming through the first round matchups and forming initial thoughts and opinions. Keep in mind that a lot can change leading up to the start of the tournament – most notably where oddsmakers set the lines and where the betting markets drives said lines. For Monday's blog, I'll share my initial thoughts and opinions with our readers on all four regions.

East
Gotta be able to score at an efficient rate to compete with Virginia and first round opponent Coastal Carolina is one of the few teams in the tournament to average less than a point per possession (0.97). Pretty good blueprint of what to expect with Coastal losing to Clemson, 69-40... If you bet the Memphis-George Washington game, expect more than few missed free throws with both teams at 65% on the season... Harvard isn't your typical Ivy League team in that the Crimson has some decent athletes. They were only -2 in rebounding vs. UConn but shot 11-of-34, 32% from 2-point in the 61-56 loss... Delaware competed well against Villanova (84-80 loss), Notre Dame (80-75 loss) and Ohio State (76-64 loss). The Blue Read more



Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Initial thoughts on the South Region

03.17.2014     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NCAA Tournament field is set and like most bettors, Sunday night is spent skimming through the first round matchups and forming initial thoughts and opinions. Keep in mind that a lot can change leading up to the start of the tournament – most notably where oddsmakers set the lines and where the betting markets drives said lines. For Monday's blog, I'll share my initial thoughts and opinions with our readers on all four regions.

South
No surprise to see Florida earn the no. 1 seed and get to play just down the road in Orlando... Always funny to see the difference power ratings bettors use vs. the criteria of the selection committee with Colorado, a no. 8 seed and ranked 55th (Sagarin) and 64th (Ken Pom) vs. Pitt, a no. 9 seed (20th (Sagarin) and 18th (Ken Pom)... Obviously going to look at turnovers with games involving VCU. The Rams' first round foe, Stephen F. Austin, not only has a respectable turnover rate (16.8) but the Lumberjacks actually forced turnovers at a higher rate (24.1) in conference play than VCU (23.1) – albeit against the rather weak competition of the Southland... Pointless to look at Tulsa’s entire body of Read more



Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: UConn Huskies vs. Louisville Cardinals

03.15.2014     08:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UConn vs. Louisville -8 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Over


Louisville has been an offensive juggernaut over the back half of the season, netting 80+ points in nine of their last 12 games. That acumen has been on full display during the AAC Tournament with 92- and 94-point efforts in the opening two rounds. And while the Cardinals still play stellar defense, their offense and pace of games puts tonight's total of 135 well within reach. UConn meanwhile has not played many high scoring games of late, using defense to wear teams down. They held both Memphis and Cincinnati to under 57 points in their first two tournament games. I think tonight's game won't be such a grinder – the margin vs. Memphis was too big to create flow and Cincinnati plays super-slow. Louisville is pushing the tempo at an incredible rate with 70+ possessions in five of their last six. The only one that fell below that was their 81-48 home win over UConn that gave the Cards a share of the AAC regular season title. So while both teams play outstanding defense I think there is an equal amount of offensive talent and as mentioned, the pace of this game should be fairly quick. And with Read more



Tags: College Basketball UConn Huskies Louisville Cardinals Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers

03.09.2014     07:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northwestern at Purdue -9 O/U 123
Recommendation: Purdue


Purdue has played a brutal slate down the stretch facing what could very well be five NCAA Tournament bound squads – three of those five contests on the road. The Boilers haven't quit either, losing to Michigan in overtime, Iowa by single digits in Iowa City, and by six up in Madison on Wednesday. No question Matt Painter and the team are frustrated but today marks a great opportunity to feel good for a change. Not much of any motivation for the Northwestern side as it limps into this contest short on bodies and scoring ability. We saw the fatigue of the season and the loss of JerShon Cobb really play out in Thursday's embarrassing 59-32 loss to Penn State. Today is a situation that if the Wildcats get down there is simply no reason to put up much of a fight with the Big Ten Tournament just around the corner. Also note that in the first meeting between these teams, Purdue had the game won not once, but twice, but managed to lose in double OT. It's been that kind of season for the Boilermakers but I feel that they are sitting on a solid showing today. As with all Northwestern games, the Read more



Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

03.03.2014     10:42 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Recommendation: 1st half under


Notre Dame has been playing ultra-slow of late with seven of their last eight games in regulation featuring less than 60 possessions. The only game that wasn't was against North Carolina but that game still had a modest 67 possessions and 135 points (50 points 1st half). Some of that had to do with the slow nature of the ACC but Mike Brey knows how bad his defense is and the only way to offset it is to shorten the game and milk clock when they have the ball on offense. That is the blueprint of how to beat (or compete with) North Carolina. Early in the season the Tar Heels lost low possession grinders to Miami, Syracuse, and Virginia. During their run of 11 straight wins, they've managed to control tempo on most nights. However, we saw last time out that you can play the slow-down game as Virginia Tech lost 60-56 and kept the game at 60 possessions. Off an overtime loss against Pitt two days ago, I have my concerns that Notre Dame may wear down. But I look for them to come out early, value possessions, and keep UNC from easy buckets in transition.

Read more



Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish North Carolina Tar Heels Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs

02.25.2014     09:32 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Missouri at Georgia
Recommendation: 1st half UNDER


Despite all the crap basketball in the SEC, Missouri finds itself with the worst defensive efficiency mark in the league (1.10 points per possession allowed). Following Saturday's loss to Alabama in which the Tigers coughed up 80 points, Frank Haith called out his team for a lack of effort. According to reports, they appear committed to turning things around: “They played harder than us down there, so I think that was the main thing,” Brown said. “There’s always going to be X’s and O’s, but I think effort is the main part of defense.” I'm not expecting a massive turnaround but a little effort coupled with Georgia's slow pace and offensive struggles gives us a nice betting opportunity. Out of the Bulldogs' last five games, the highest point total was 130. And in the first meeting in Columbia, the score was 56-56 at the end of regulation. I'll call for Missouri to come out with a lot of defensive intensity early on and will make a play on the first half under.

Lange 10* CBB Total of the Read more



Tags: College Basketball Missouri Tigers Georgia Bulldogs Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers

02.18.2014     07:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NC State at Clemson -4 O/U 120
Recommendation: Under


Like Northwestern, Clemson has played a ridiculous amount of slow paced, low scoring games. In 12 ACC contests, the Tigers have topped 120 points only four times in regulation – two came against up-tempo Duke and North Carolina and another against Boston College (122) who sports one of the worst defenses in college basketball. Last time out, despite only 53 possessions, Clemson and Virginia hit 121. That final is some deceiving as both teams had 90 points with five minutes to go. NC State is a young squad that has a tendency to let its opponent dictate tempo. In games against Duke and North Carolina, there were possessions and points galore. But we've seen the Wolfpack play grinders as well: 56-55 vs. Miami, 56-55 vs. Syracuse, 76-45 vs. Virginia. Overall, both squads average less than a point per possession in conference play and with the pace Read more



Tags: College Basketball Clemson Tigers NC State Wolfpack Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans

02.13.2014     12:11 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northwestern at Michigan State -14 O/U 119.5
Recommendation: Under


Thanks to a big push towards the over I see no reason not to play Northwestern under the total...again. In listening to Chris Collins, it is clear the Wildcats have zero depth and as a result must slow down the pace of the game and focus nearly all of their attention on playing defense and keeping the game close. Offensively, Northwestern has topped a point per possession once in Big Ten play whereas they've failed to top 0.90 in 8 out of 11 games. On the road against arguably the best defense in the league, it'll be a struggle to top 50 points. Michigan State meanwhile has had its issues offensively due to injuries. Tom Izzo noted that the team's desire to push the pace has been hampered because of not being able to play with the ideal personnel. The first meeting featured 94 points and 54 possessions. Even with drastic improvement on a number of fronts, topping 120 will be Read more



Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Michigan State Spartans Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers

02.12.2014     10:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Syracuse at Pittsburgh -2.5 O/U 125
Recommendation: Under


I don't think there is any debate that tonight's Syracuse-Pitt game is going to be slow. In ACC play, the Orange are averaging an incredibly low 55 possessions per game while Pitt isn't exactly pushing the tempo either at just over 61. In the first meeting, even with both squads scoring a point per possession and attempting 41 free throws, the game produced only 113 points. Typically when you get one "extreme" in the first meeting (slow pace, low scoring) teams make adjustments and the opposite takes place in the rematch. I'm not sure we see that tonight as both teams indicated it was likely to be another bloodbath. Obviously with a total this low crazy things can happen late to bust a play on the under. But I don't project more than 60 possessions and in this type of atmosphere, buckets will be at an absolute premium.

Read more



Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange Pittsburgh Panthers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats

02.08.2014     07:55 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Nebraska at Northwestern -2.5 O/U 119.5
Recommendation: Under


It’s Saturday and that means another opportunity to bet Northwestern under the total. And the bonus is it got played up off of the opener of 117 to 119.5 which to me is crazy. Yes, we aren't getting the value of two weeks ago but based on the projected pace of this game, it'll take quit an effort by both squads – and some help from the refs and perhaps an overtime or two – to top 120 points. We know the Wildcats are super-slow and have played pretty good defense. And let's not forget; Northwestern is an amazing 5-5 in conference play so I doubt they would make dramatic changes mid-season. As for Nebraska, head coach Tim Miles seems to fully understand what is going to take place, "It’s going to be a slow game on Saturday,” Miles said. Well said, Tim. The Cornhuskers don't really have much of an identity – sometimes they play fast, other times they look to Read more



Tags: College Basketball Nebraska Cornhuskers Northwestern Wildcats Andrew Lange



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