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College Basketball Handicapping: Tracking close ATS results

02.29.2012     07:25 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Back in early February some Fairway Followers requested updated information on college basketball ATS results, and I provided them in the Sportsmemo posting forum. With the regular season coming to a close this week, I thought it was a good time to update the results and see how this season compares to historical college basketball results. I reviewed box scores, stats and documented and tracked these results every night and the following mornings during the season.

Using historical data since the advent of the 3-point shot 25 years ago, approximately 40% of college basketball games and final scores will land within five points of the betting line. Approximately 10% of games and final scores will land within one point of the line (11% this season). This is slightly subjective with opening/closing line moves, but a good guide and indicator.

Using the closing lines as your guide for this college basketball season, here are the results month by month.  Again, nearly 40% of the college basketball games and final scores landed within five points of the betting line (39.3%) with nearly 3,200 games and results.

College Basketball results within 5 points of the line as of 2/29/2012
Month
# Games
Within 5 points of line - %
November
586
203 - 34.6%
December
665
275 - 41.4%
January
952
382 - 40.1%
February
995
398 - 40.0%
Total
3,198
1,258 - 39.3%


While the Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




NCAA Basketball Betting Notes: Ohio State limps into matchup vs. Northwestern

02.29.2012     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Ohio State -7 at Northwestern O/U 132.5

Ohio State has lost three of five entering tonight's game at Northwestern. Most surprising is the home losses to Michigan State and most recently Wisconsin – on senior night. Jared Sullinger came out and admitted he has been distracted of late.


“I had to throw them out of practice yesterday,” he said. “They weren’t ready to practice. And this team has shown we play like we practice.”

“It is just the little stuff,” Sullinger said. “It is just me letting the refs get to me, or letting everything on the outside get to me and letting it creep in. I was Read more



Tags: College Basketball Ohio State Buckeyes Northwestern Wildcats




College Basketball Gambling: Rumors circulating of a scandal at UCLA

02.29.2012     06:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sports Illustrated is reportedly going to print with a scandal-like story on the UCLA basketball program and its relationship with drugs. Last night ESPNU said that the UCLA athletics department plans to call a press conference to repspond to the matter.


#UCLA HC Ben Howland on upcoming SI expose: "Specifically, I can't talk about any former player or student relative to anything having to do with that. We have a comprehensive drug policy here at UCLA where any time someone fails a drug test, I'm alerted, school's alerted and player is alerted, and I think we have a good program in place for all teams to receive education and counseling and receive discipline."

 



Tags: College Basketball UCLA Bruins




Atlantic Sun Tournament Gambling Preview

02.29.2012     05:50 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
University Center, Macon, GA (Host: Mercer)


Favorite - #1 Belmont
Veteran head coach Rick Byrd (26th season) has by far the deepest and most talented team in the league. Belmont currently ranks second in the nation in points per game at 82.1 and their unselfish style has resulted in six players scoring between 9 and 14 points per game. The offense is extremely diverse executing up-tempo and half court styles with interior, perimeter and off the dribble scoring options. The Bruins depth was on full display this past Saturday as they sat starting junior PG Kerron Johnson (14 ppg) and sophomore SF Blake Jenkins due to minor injuries and still pulled out a 62-61 win right here against tournament #2 seed Mercer. At 22-7 with a 59 RPI and only one Top 50 RPI win (at Middle Tennessee State), it’s imperative for Belmont to win this tournament to gain a return trip to the NCAA Tournament. With their experience (seven upperclassmen in the nine man rotation), diversity (can effectively play two PG’s at the same time) and motivation, they should be the clear cut Read more


Tags: College Basketball Belmont Bruins Rob Veno




College Basketball ATS Free Play: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies

02.28.2012     01:28 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas State at Texas A&M +4.5 O/U 121.5
Recommendation: Texas A&M


Last home game for the Aggies and two senior starters. Texas A&M is trying to get to .500 and become eligible for postseason play. However, they have struggled down the stretch going 1-7 SU including their recent 0-3 slide. As noted in my Last Home Game blog and other supporting situations, Texas A&M (13-15) should come with plenty of energy and effort playing with revenge against Kansas State following a 64-53 loss in Manhattan earlier this month. Note that two of the Aggies top players missed that contest and both forward Khris Middleton and guard Dash Harris will play tonight in the rematch. That low possession loss to K-State is common for the Aggies, but their defense remains solid through their struggles allowing just 63 Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kansas State Wildcats Texas A&M Aggies __




Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Odds: Murray State -800 favorite

02.28.2012     12:53 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Odds on the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament courtesy of 5Dimes. Opening round action starts tomorrow in Nashville.

Odds to win OVC Tournament
Murray State -800
Tennessee State +600
Tennessee Tech +1600
Morehead State +3000
Austin Peay +3500
Southeast Missouri State +10000
Eastern Kentucky +10000
Jacksonville State +20000

Matchups
Wednesday
#5 Southeast Missouri vs. #8 Eastern Kentucky
#6 Austin Peay vs. #7 Jacksonville State

Thursday
#5/8 Winner vs. #4 Tennessee Tech
#6/7 Winner vs. #3 Morehead State

Friday
#8/5/4 Winner vs. #1 Murray State
#7/6/3 Winner vs. #2 Tennessee State




Tags: College Basketball Murray State Racers




Horizon League Tournament: Three teams priced as double-digit underdogs

02.28.2012     12:33 PM     Printer Friendly
Interesting to see three double-digit underdogs in the opening round of the Horizon League Tournament. Over the last four years, those teams have covered five of eight games.

Home Teams: 8-8 ATS
Favorites 9-7 ATS
Double-Digit Underdogs: 5-3 ATS


Horizon League Tournament First Round Betting History 2008-11
Year
Away
Home
ATS Winner
2011
Illinois-Chicago
Cleveland State
Illinois-Chicago +14.5
2011
Green Bay
Wright State
Wright State -6
2011
Loyola
Detroit
Detroit -4.5
2011
Youngstown
Valparaiso
Youngstown +13
2010
Loyola
Cleveland State
Cleveland State -10
2010
Detroit
Valparaiso
Detroit +1
2010
Illinois-Chicago
Milwaukee
Illinois-Chicago +12.5
2010
Youngstown
Green Bay
Green Bay -9.5
2009
Detroit
Cleveland State
Detroit +16
2009
Valparaiso
Wright State
Wright State -10
2009
Illinois-Chicago
Youngstown
Illinois-Chicago -2
2009
Loyola
Milwaukee
Milwaukee -7.5
2008
Detroit
Wright State
Wright State -11.5
2008
Green Bay
Valparaiso
Valparaiso -6.5
2008
Loyola
Milwaukee
Loyola +4.5
2008
Youngstown
Illinois-Chicago
Youngstown +12.5




Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Gambling: Situation continues to worsen for Mississippi State

02.28.2012     12:19 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It is getting tougher and tougher to get to the window with Mississippi State these days. And with players calling out other players the situation has now reached toxic levels. Following Saturday 67-50 loss at Alabama, forward Arnett Moultrie came out and said that different players had different agendas. Head coach Rick Stansbury summed it up by saying "it kinda is what it is." The Bulldogs attempt to snap a five-game losing streak tomorrow at South Carolina.

 

"These last five games we haven't been playing like a team," Moultrie said. "Everybody got their own agendas. I see how they come up here (to the podium) and say how bad they want to win and how bad they want to go to the Final Four, but everybody doesn't work as hard as they say they want (in order) to win."

"I know it's easy for (Arnett) to get frustrated because things haven't gone our way, but there's some things I wish we did better but, at this point, it kinda is what it is," Stansbury said. "We aren't going to let one game make comments like that. After the Read more



Tags: College Basketball Mississippi State Bulldogs




College Basketball Free Play: Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores

02.28.2012     07:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida at Vanderbilt -3.5 O/U 140.5
Recommendation: Vanderbilt


Obviously I'd like to see Florida off of a win rather than an embarrassing 76-62 loss at Georgia but I still feel like this is a prime spot for Vanderbilt. It is senior night for the Commodores as a group of six players (86 career wins) will play their final home game at Memorial Gym. The key to this game though is not senior night or the revenge factor but in fact an injury. The Gators will be without forward Will Yeguete who is out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Yeguete doesn't get much attention because he is one of the team's last options on offense (4.4 ppg). But his impact on the defensive end of the floor cannot be understated. In Florida's win over Vandy earlier this season, the Gators unleashed a full court press and forced 17 turnovers in large part because of Yeguete. Without him, and on the road, I don't think Billy Donovan will be able to apply the amount of pressure Read more


Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Florida Gators Andrew Lange




College Basketball Gambling: Montana and Weber State duke it out for Big Sky title

02.28.2012     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Weber State at Montana -4.5 O/U 140

Big showdown in the Big Sky as Montana (14-1) plays host to Weber State (14-1) with the winner not only earning the outright crown but also the right to host the semifinals and finals of the conference tournament. Weber State (-5) won the first meeting 80-64.

“You know what it is? I think it’s really cool, it’s just really cool,” Weber State’s personable coach Randy Rahe said. “I’m sure the Griz feel this way: If you go 14-1 you’d probably have the league wrapped up by about two or three games by this time of year. Same on our part. It’s one of those, not strange, but good years where you have two good teams. They’ve done a phenomenal job and our guys have done fine and here we are.

“I think our veteran guys will keep things in perspective,” Read more


Tags: College Basketball Montana Grizzlies Weber State Wildcats



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 20, 2014 04:12 AM.