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January

27

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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls vs. California Golden Bears

03.13.2012     12:51 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional
No. 12 South Florida vs. No. 12 California -3 O/U 115
Wednesday, 6 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: California -1.5


Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner taking on Temple. No question South Florida played a favorable Big East schedule but the Bulls still won 12 league games in one of the best conferences in the country while California didn't even win the PAC-12 regular season or the PAC-12 Tournament. The Golden Bears have the advantage on offense with multiple players who can score from all over the court. But South Florida has one of the best defenses in the tournament – even when accounting for the slow pace of its games. The Bulls ranked first in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense (42.1%) and 2-point field goal percentage (42.2%). In comparison, Cal ranked 4th in both categories in the much weaker PAC-12. The total is certainly reflective of USF’s ability to control tempo. In Big East play, only once (a blowout vs. Georgetown) did a game involving the Bulls top 64 possessions.

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Tags: College Basketball South Florida Bulls California Golden Bears




NCAA Tournament Betting Alert: Syracuse's leading rebounder Melo ineligible

03.13.2012     12:33 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
More drama for Syracuse as center Fab Melo has been ruled ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. While not a prolific scorer, Melo was the team's leading rebounder (5.8 per game) and shot blocker (2.9 per game). The Orange rank 129th nationally in team rebounding. Syracuse dropped from -17 to as low as -15.5 for its first round matchup against UNC-Asheville. The total was bet up slightly to 146. Melo missed three games mid-season and the Orange went 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS. They were outrebounded a combined 108-80 in those three games. Pinnacle has Syracuse's odds to win the East Regional now at "Yes" +319 and "No" -400.



Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange UNC Asheville




College Basketball NIT Betting Trend

03.13.2012     12:16 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Often times we assume power conference teams that get "snubbed" from the NCAA Tournament and sent to the NIT don't really want to be there. But often times these "snubbed" teams are rewarded with home games and the turnaround from conference tournament to NIT is so short, there isn't much time to sit around and sulk. I went back the last five years and took the top 2 seeds from each NIT "pod" which ends up being eight teams total. Sort of arbitrary, but you figure past those eight are teams that didn't expect to be in the NCAA Tournament anyway or are mid-majors. For example, last year's no. 3 seeds were Dayton, Colorado State, Missouri State and Oklahoma State.

With those eight teams, I took a look at their first round games (almost all of which were at home with the exception of Boston College who was shipped to McNeese State last year) and then the overall results. Keep in mind, the overall numbers are skewed some as a lot of these teams eventually played one another. What I came up with was pretty surprising. From a straight up perspective, our top eight teams went 37-3 SU and a respectable 24-16 (60%) ATS in the first round and Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




Your options for watching and betting the NCAA Tournament in Las Vegas

03.13.2012     09:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Las Vegas Sun provided details on your options for viewing this year's NCAA Tournament. Of note, the $2 shots of Jameson at Stations Casino – a must after UNLV blows a 15-point lead against Colorado.



Tags: College Basketball Las Vegas




NCAA Tournament Gambling: Turnovers and rebounding keys to upsets

03.13.2012     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
Article from The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective on predicting upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Two important factors in determining upsets are turnovers and rebounding.


VCU will be a very trendy upset pick this year because of their run last season, but this model adores the Rams because of their ability to force turnovers (best in the nation) and take care of the ball (27th best in the nation). A note of caution, however: VCU is a big outlier. Since this model is looking for average effects, it may not do as well out of sample predicting teams far away from the average, like VCU.



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Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Betting Notes: Northwestern not pleased with NIT seed

03.13.2012     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Akron at Northwestern -6.5 O/U

When life gives you lemons, make lemonade. So what if you were 1-10 vs. the RPI top 50. So what if you haven't made an NCAA Tournament since...well ever. You got a home game in the NIT baby! Wait. You're disappointed with your NIT seed too? Umm, did we mention you were 1-10 VS. THE RPI TOP 50!?!? Just be glad you didn't get shipped to Quinnipiac for the CBI.


“I was surprised,” Carmody said. “I thought we were a higher seed than that. I thought we were at worst a two seed.

“There was disappointment yesterday, but the real disappointment was Thursday [losing to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament.] You have five days. I think that was the disappointment. As it turns out, the way it looks to be, even if we had beaten those guys, we weren’t getting in. Read more



Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Akron Zips




Top 10 tips for gambling on the 2012 NCAA Tournament

03.13.2012     06:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When March Madness rolls around, no one is immune to the itch to get in on the action, whether it’s laying down a bet or simply competing in an office pool. I’ll share my Top 10 NCAA Tournament gambling strategies in this article. There are no surprises here – veteran bettors know this stuff already, but it never hurts to think about these concepts again before the Big Dance begins.

1) Fade the teams that looked great last weekend
There’s no such thing as carrying over momentum from conference tournament weekend to the Big Dance. Of the Top 16 teams in the Big Dance – the top four teams from each region – only four of them (Michigan State, Louisville, Missouri and Florida State) won their conference tournaments.

Many of the top contenders for the national title dropped out early; focusing on this coming weekend as opposed to last weekend. The teams that went all out to secure a bid or win their conference title but came up short, like Cincinnati, Baylor and San Diego State , tend to be particularly strong on the fade list.

2) Winning your office pool requires luck
When Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Gambling Preview: Lamar Cardinals vs. Vermont Catamounts

03.12.2012     02:12 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional
Lamar -3 vs. Vermont O/U 130
Wednesday, 3:30 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: Lamar -2


Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner getting top seed North Carolina. Lamar made headlines a few weeks ago after head coach Pat Knight bashed his team for not knowing how to win. The Cardinals responded by winning six straight – all by double-digits – including the Southland Tournament. According to Ken Pom, Lamar is the most experienced team in the country with virtually the entire roster comprised of juniors and seniors. They faced a very tough non-conference slate: at Louisville, at Ohio State and at Kentucky. Vermont has now reached the postseason four straight years. They acquitted themselves well when asked to step up in class with close losses to tournament teams South Florida, Harvard and Iona. Should be a fairly competitive contest with Lamar ranked no. 102 and Vermont no. 120 based on Ken Pom's ratings.

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Tags: College Basketball Lamar Cardinals Vermont Catamounts




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Iona Gaels at BYU Cougars

03.12.2012     12:45 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament West Regional
Iona vs. BYU -2 O/U 161.5
Tuesday, 6 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: BYU -1.5


Betting Take: Two teams that just slipped into the postseason square off in the 14th seed play-in game. The winner takes on no. 3 seed Marquette. Against St. Mary's, Loyola Marymount and Gonzaga, BYU went just 2-5 SU with two of those losses coming at the once vaunted Marriott Center. Defensively, the Cougs' numbers look decent but they had a lot difficulty defending pretty much any team with an above average offense. They'll certainly see that against Iona who during the preseason hung 90 and 89 on Purdue and Maryland respectively. Like BYU, the Gaels often win by outscoring the opposition. Note that against the top two defenses in the MAAC, Fairfield and Manhattan, Iona went 1-3 ATS. Also of note, Iona was 1-3 O/U in games lines 160 or above. BYU didn't play a game lined over 160 and was 4-6 O/U in games line 150 or above. A lot of things outside of just pace need to go right in order to top 161 points in a college basketball game.

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Tags: College Basketball Iona Gaels BYU Cougars




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky

03.12.2012     12:21 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament South Regional
Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky -4.5 O/U 139
Tuesday, 3:30 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: Western Kentucky -6


Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner taking on top seed Kentucky. The SWAC will be represented by the class of the league, Mississippi Valley State, who finished 17-1. Like most SWAC schools, the Delta Devils played a lot of "pay check road games" against power conference schools during the non-conference. They took their lumps but were competitive in losses to Iowa State, DePaul, and South Carolina. Western Kentucky fired its coach mid-season and at one point was 5-14 overall and 1-5 in Sun Belt play. The Hilltoppers managed to finish 7-9 in conference play and won four games in four days (by a total of 17 points) to claim the Sun Belt crown. Never know what to expect from these play-in games though they have been relatively low scoring the last few years with scores of 61-44, 58-43 and 69-60. Note however that Mississippi Valley averaged more than 70 possessions per game in conference action. The SWAC has one play-in game victory in five Read more


Tags: College Basketball Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils



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