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NCAA Championship Gambling Preview: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats

04.02.2012     07:03 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Kansas vs. Kentucky -6 O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Kentucky

Last game of what has been an absolutely remarkable season. From a service perspective, I produced my third straight winning season with 59% winners and +33.65 units of profit on 185 documented plays. I thank all of the clients that got on board and look forward to continued winning success in the NBA, MLB, and beyond.

As for tonight's National Championship, I don't have a super-strong opinion but have made a personal wager on Kentucky. Most of you know that I prefer underdogs and when I do back a favorite, I don't lay more than a bucket it or two – my clients haven't received a recommendation on a favorite over -4 since way back in November. But this is a tricky price range and one that you have to ask yourself: Do you think Kentucky is going to win the game? I believe they will based on what I've seen the last two or three weeks. Obviously, Kansas is more than capable of covering the +6 as Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Andrew Lange

Final Four Gambling: Las Vegas oddsmaker expects more Kentucky and Ohio State money

03.31.2012     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
A Tweet from LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay on where he projects the money to come in on for tonight’s Final Four. LVH is currently right in line with the market; Kentucky -8.5 O/U 136.5 and Ohio State -2.5 O/U 135.5.



Tags: College Basketball

Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers offer last minute opinions on betting the Final Four

03.31.2012     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers was featured in Chad Millman's ESPN Final Four preview. Below is what Teddy had to say about both matchups.

Covers says: "I actually thought Louisville-Kentucky would be a little shorter at about seven. Betonline opened at 9.5, 5Dimes opened at 8. I honestly think that number is a little bit high. With Kentucky you are talking about four or five guys that could start in the NBA next year. The problem with that side is I don't think they can play any better than they did recently -- they were just lights out. And yet against Indiana and Baylor, there we were at the end and sweating it out. As good as they were and as well as they played, there is not a lot of value on the Kentucky side. Louisville is a great dog, 8-3 catching points this year. Look at the first game these two played: The fact that Louisville held Kentucky under 30 percent shooting in that game tells us that team has the potential to keep the game in check. I haven't bet it yet because I think we might see 9.5 in Vegas before we tip off."

Covers says: "In February, before the brackets, I wrote that I thought these two teams would play for the

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Ohio State Buckeyes Kansas Jayhawks Teddy Covers

Final Four Betting Stats: Kentucky struggles ATS vs. better defenses

03.30.2012     08:49 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Taking a look at Kentucky's results against the top five defenses on its schedule. I used Ken Pom's defensive efficiency ratings. Louisville is currently the no. 1 team in the country at 0.84 points per possession allowed. Of the six games, the Wildcats went 6-0 SU but 2-4 ATS. Four of the six games went UNDER the total.

No. 1 Louisville (0.84 ppp allowed)
Result: Kentucky 69, Louisville (+10) 62; Under 136

No. 4 Kansas (0.86)
Result: Kentucky (-6.5) 75, Kansas 65; Under 147.5

No. 8 Alabama (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 77, Alabama (+10) 71; Over 130

No. 10 North Carolina (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 73, North Carolina (+6.5) 72; Under 156.5

No. 30 Vanderbilt (0.93)
Result: Kentucky (-4.5) 69, Vanderbilt 63; Under 135.5
Result: Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt (+11.5) 74; Over 138.5

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Andrew Lange

Final Four Gambling: John Calipari tells everyone to bet the OVER Saturday

03.29.2012     12:25 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Louisville vs. Kentucky -8.5 O/U 137.5

This is either the greatest bit of sports betting information EVER or just another basketball coach telling the media what it wants to hear.

John Calipari: “I think our game Saturday is going to be in the 90s. We don't want to be in a hurry to score, but we want to play fast. I think the games are going to be a little more jumbled up (in the Final Four) and the teams are going to go up and down. It should be exciting.”

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals

NIT Betting Notes: Madison Square Garden has a way of holding offenses in check

03.27.2012     12:21 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Some notes regarding tonight’s two semifinal matchups in the NIT. Bettors who have been following these secondary tournaments have either been making money playing OVERS or living under a rock. But based on some of the historical results, I refrained from pulling the trigger on tonight’s two games. In fact, I made half-unit plays on the UNDER after some research. You’ll notice that like clockwork, both games were bet OVER the total just like every other NIT, CBI and CIT game. Here are some of the numbers I found…

The last 14 semifinal matchups at Madison Square Garden produced the following game scores: 123, 119, 131, 135 (OT), 138, 126, 150, 144, 125, 135, 141, 109, 142, and 128. That comes out to about 132 points per game. Only two of those contests went over 143 (Minnesota-Washington total) and one over 149 (UMass-Stanford total).

In terms of O/U numbers, I went back the last 10 semifinal matchups and got 3-7 O/U. But perhaps even more impressive than 70% UNDERS is the manner in which they cashed. The seven UNDERS were by margins of 22, 10.5, 15, 12, 18, 20.5 and 27! That is crazy and certainly not random. And the situations were Read more

Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Minnesota Golden Gophers Stanford Cardinal UMass Minutemen Andrew Lange

NCAA Tournmanet Betting: Final Four Against the Spread Notes

03.27.2012     06:37 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
The Final Four in New Orleans is set as no. 1 seed Kentucky, no. 2 Ohio State, no. 2 Kansas and no. 4 Louisville light up the Superdome. The Elite Eight had some super finishes and tight contests with three of the four games landing within five points of the poinspread.  The Kansas–North Carolina game had a one-point margin with 3+ minutes to go before the Jayhawks finished the game on a 12-0 run to pull away for the win.

The Sweet Sixteen also had many close contests with all four games last Friday landing within five points of the pointspread. Of the 12 games last week, eight landed within five points of the line. During the course of the college basketball season, 40% of all games landed within five points of the betting line, so you can see how tight the numbers are as the tournament progresses.

With that said, here are some Final Four Against-the-Spread (ATS) notes. Since 1998, the better seeded team is 21-8 SU and 22-7 ATS. Teams seeded no. 4 or worse are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS if they are playing a better seeded team. Top-seeded no. 1 teams taking on a worse seed are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS the past 14 years including 11-3 ATS if favored by -8 or Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Louisville Cardinals __

Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview

03.26.2012     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen 64 NCAA Tournament teams get eliminated from the field, leaving only the Final Four remaining with a chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans next Monday.

College hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy breaks down the four teams chances to win the title as follows: Kentucky 42%, Ohio State 34%, Kansas 17% and Louisville 7%. From my perspective, if John Calipari’s Wildcats play as well next weekend as they did this past weekend, that 42% chance of a title looks pretty darn low.

That being said, it’s going to be very hard for Kentucky to match their near flawless offensive performances in wins over Baylor and Indiana. The Wildcats have scored a ridiculous 220 points in their last 163 possessions; a 1.35 points per possession ratio. Those are not sustainable numbers, even for a team that closed out the weekend ranked #2 in the country (behind only Missouri) with 1.17 points per possession average.

Both Final Four games are rematches of non-conference affairs from earlier in the season. The talking heads on TV are sure to bring up this angle ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that neither affair had a Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Teddy Covers

NCAA Tournament Odds: Kentucky a -128 favorite to win championship

03.26.2012     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
Saturday's Final Four in New Orleans is set and not surprising, Kentucky is the betting favorite to win it all.

Current Lines
Louisville vs. Kentucky -8.5 O/U 138.5
Ohio State -2.5 vs. Kansas O/U 136.5

Pinnacle Championship Futures
Kentucky -128
Ohio State +281
Kansas +499
Louisville +1150

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Louisville Cardinals

CIT Semifinal Betting Preview: Oakland Grizzlies at Utah State Aggies

03.25.2012     10:37 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Oakland at Utah State -5 O/U 150

We’re off a 3-0 college basketball sweep Saturday and we’ll fire at the tournament on Sunday. Utah State (20-15) hosts high-scoring Oakland (20-15) in semifinal action. The Aggies have won all three of their home games in CIT action and head coach Stew Morrill is one of the best; especially at the Spectrum in Logan, Utah. The Aggies are 16-4 on their home court this season and 67-5 the past four regular seasons. And in the favorite role up to -13, Utah State has covered over 60% of its last 110 games at home.

Big contrast in styles and the Aggies will face a tough challenge slowing down the nation’s leading scorer, Oakland guard Reggie Hamilton (26 ppg). The high-scoring Grizzlies push the pace and launch the three-balls while scoring over 79 ppg. Hamilton is the key as his dribble-drives create plenty of scoring for himself and teammates and he also hits 42% from the arch and 88% from Read more

Tags: College Basketball Oakland Grizzlies Utah State Aggies __


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