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NCAA Basketball Gambling: Middle Tennessee riding high after 3-0 start, UCLA win
11.19.2011 06:50 AM
Printer Friendly
NC Greensboro
at
Middle Tennessee State
-18 O/U 144.5
Middle Tennessee is
flying high
after a 3-0 start including a 20-point win over UCLA. According to some of the players, the performance thus far was expected and confidence is at an all-time high. So much so that they had these fine words to say…
“Did we just beat UCLA by 20?,” Dendy said. “We’re a confident team, and we thought we’d come in there and beat them by 8 or 9 and still be undefeated. We really believed that.
“But did we just beat UCLA by 20 points?”
“We kind of figured we’d be coming home 3-0,”
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Tags:
College Basketball
UNC Greensboro Spartans
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
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NCAAB Betting Notes: Five on injured list for Louisville including PG Silva
11.19.2011 06:37 AM
Printer Friendly
Louisville
-4.5 at
Butler
O/U 132.5
Louisville looks to be
shorthanded
for this afternoon's game at Butler with Stephen Van Treese (knee, questionable), Peyton Silva (ankle, doubtful), Mike Marra (ACL, out), Rakeem Buckles (ACL, out) and Wayne Blackshear (shoulder, out) all on the injured list.
“I’m not sure how we’re going to go this game and how many different defenses we’re going to play,” Pitino said. “I think this is the type of game where we’ll throw a lot of things against the wall and hope the right things stick — player-wise as well as strategy.”
He did not totally rule out Siva seeing “spot duty,” probably in “an isolated situation” at the end of the game, but he said: “I don’t think he can be ready for this game. I doubt
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Tags:
College Basketball
Louisville Cardinals
Butler Bulldogs
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College Basketball Handicapping Notes for 11/18/2011
11.18.2011 12:49 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
A quick breakdown of tonight's college basketball card.
Ball State has beaten Indiana State two straight times. Billy Taylor's squad showed well at Arizona and has steadily improved on offense the last two years. I grade out the Sycamores as the better team though and lean that way at the current number of -6.
Youngstown State is a team I have check marked though not in this price range. We saw the line dip down to -3.5 but was immediately bet back the Penguins' way. Riverside has some experience and beat YSU by 2 last season.
Expect a fast pace in tonight's Arkansas-Houston game. With the total nearing 150 though, it becomes not only an issue of pace but also shooting. Neither team is particularly efficient which kept me off of the over at this price.
Arizona State is not a good team and points are once again going to be tough to come by. They are also struggling with being asked to play at a faster pace. Asking kids to take quicker shots after playing stall-ball is a tough transition – especially when no one can shoot. New Mexico's preseason expectations and past domination over New Mexico State may have gone to their heads as the
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College Basketball Betting Preview: Stanford Cardinal at UC Davis Aggies
11.18.2011 10:04 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Stanford
at
UC Davis
Recommendation: Under
I watched most of the Stanford-Colorado State game the other night. While the Rams looked to get out in transition, the Cardinal was having none of it. In the second half especially, every Stanford possession featured 5-6 passes and a look towards the post. Stanford's point guard was constantly putting up his arms as to say; let's make sure we run a play. UC Davis has a new head coach, Jim Les. He comes over from Bradley where his teams were typically moderate pace-wise and played solid defense. Four games in, and it is clear to Les that running up and down the court and not playing defense is no way to be successful. In reading some quotes on Tuesday's effort against UC Santa Cruz, it looks as if there are going to be some personnel changes.
"We have to change some habits," Les said. "We've got a lot of guys who are concerned about their offense. To me, to have success at this level,
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College Basketball Handicapping: UNLV enjoying Dave Rice's up-tempo offense
11.18.2011 06:16 AM
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UNLV first-year head coach Davie Rice's
up-tempo offense
was on full display in last night’s 95-70 win over Canisius. The Rebels scored 54 in the first half and didn't net a single point the final 3:30 on the game with the end of the bench playing. The betting markets have clearly caught on to this new found love for speed as yesterday's total opened 137.5 and closed 146.5 at Pinnacle. UNLV gets one more fast-paced opponent in Morgan State and then the style/tempo of the opposition changes dramatically: Cal Poly (slow), USC (slower), UC Santa Barbara (moderate), Wichita State (moderate) and Wisconsin (like a snail).
“The 28 assists and 33 baskets is indicative of a team that played well tonight and shared the ball,” Rice said.
“We have five guys who start the game, but we have a number of other guys who are really like starters and are playing with confidence,” Rice said.
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College Basketball Handicapping: Link to daily power ratings
11.17.2011 10:42 AM
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Found
this link
while reading one of Ken Pom's blogs. Worth a bookmark as it provides numerous college basketball "power ratings" for the entire betting card. Also, Pomeroy has some
interesting insight
on the concept of his "numbers" not being able to account for injuries, emotions, travel, etc.
It’s also why a point spread will be more accurate than a ratings system over time. (You can track that phenomena for college hoops on this page.) The power of my computer is overwhelmed by the knowledge of thousands of people incorporating their own information collectively. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still proud of my computer. It provides a great estimate of team strength in most cases. But it’s a cold, unfeeling machine, incapable of incorporating emotional factors, injuries, and other unexpected circumstances that occur on a daily basis. (Although, when injuries do occur, you can get some excellent insight on how much that injury affects a team by comparing
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NCAAB Handicapper Free Play: UT-Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Indians
11.17.2011 08:00 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tennessee Martin
at
Arkansas State
Recommendation: Arkansas State -5 1st half
It was an embarrassing performance by Arkansas State last time out as it snapped a 13-game home winning streak in a 77-46 loss to Missouri State. Head coach John Brady was to but it lightly, not a happy camper in the
postgame press conference
. The Indians are a capable team that won the Sun Belt West Division last year. But after a 0-2 start, there is an obvious sense of urgency for this group. That is where UT-Martin comes into play. The Skyhawks are one of the worst teams in DI. They won just seven games last year and all of them came against non-DI or lower-tier OVC teams. They were pounded by Louisville in their opener and trailed Ohio by 19 at half before the Bobcats quit and limped to a nine-point victory. I expect to see
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College Basketball Gambling: Maryland adjusting to life under Turgeon
11.17.2011 07:45 AM
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Maryland
vs.
Alabama
-8 O/U 128.5
Maryland head coach Mark Turgeon is a no-nonsense type of guy. He's already made his presence felt by benching point guard Terrell Stoglin at the start of Sunday's game against UNC-Wilmington. Stoglin came in and ended up scoring a team-high 22 points but the Terps struggled at times on offense (0-for-9 from three). Turgeon looks to be
toying with the lineup
some in hopes of finding six or seven guys that will defend and play hard on a nightly basis. He also hinted that some of his guards took "ill-advised" shots, meaning working the ball down low is going to be a
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NCAA Basketball Betting: Mississippi State learning to play with and without Sidney
11.17.2011 06:56 AM
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Mississippi State
vs.
Texas A&M
-4.5 O/U 133.5
Mississippi State is still trying to figure out its identity with Renardo Sidney behaving but not healthy and fellow frontliner Arnett Moultrie (6-11) emerging as a threat in Sidney's absence. There are rumblings the Bulldogs want to play both players at the same time – good luck with that Rick Stansbury! Note that without Sidney last game,
MSU went more up-tempo
in its 80-65 win over South Alabama. Moultrie netted a team-high 28 points. Sidney, who is probable tonight, is not in the type of shape to run up and down the floor whereas Moultrie is clearly built for that type of game. Another thing to consider is the emergence of Moultrie is likely not good for the delicate psyche of Sidney whose play tends to suffer when not the “center” of attention. That being
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NCAAB Betting Recap: Long Beach pounds Pittsburgh as double-digit underdog
11.17.2011 05:54 AM
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We cashed another top play Big Drive winner Wednesday when Long Beach State (+13.5) beat No. 9 Pittsburgh, 86-76. The Beach Boys traveled cross country and beat the Big East bullies in convincing fashion. This was no fluke. Read the
recap and box score
and you’ll see the 49ers outplayed Pitt the entire way while shooting 59% from the floor.
With that pointspread prognosis winner, we won our sixth-straight college basketball game and we’re off to a sizzling 6-1 start to the season. I posted some notes with an
article
yesterday noting that Long Beach State was playing the toughest schedule in the country this season, but that the 49ers were a very experienced and together team that was going to make some noise on their way to the NCAA Tournament this season. Coach Dan Monson is challenging this team to turn a tough schedule into competitive contests and more wins this season, and the Big West preseason favorite delivered big in their opening act, ending Pittsburgh’s 58-game
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