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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Murray State Racers at Belmont Bruins

02.06.2014     07:46 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Murray State at Belmont -6.5 O/U 147.5
Recommendation: Over

I've watched Murray State play on a couple of occasions this season and came away impressed with how aggressive they are offensively. Not only do they push the pace but they put five players on the court that can score a number of ways. The Racers have four guards who shoot between 34 and 41 percent from three and forwards Jarvis Williams and Jonathan Fairell combine to hit over 60% from the floor. Nine games in the OVC season, and Murray is averaging an incredibly efficient 1.16 points per possession. Tonight's opponent, Belmont, scores at an identical clip, and like Murray, the Bruins will look to push the pace as well. Defensively, Belmont and Murray both allowed less than a point per possession last season but have taken a step back. The Bruins allow 1.07 ppp and while Murray ranks at the top of the OVC at 0.99, I don't expect they'll match that number on the road against arguably the best Read more

Tags: College Basketball Belmont Bruins Murray Racers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers

02.01.2014     08:11 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Northwestern at Minnesota -10.5 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Under

There are three very strong aspects of Northwestern basketball right now that have them trending under the total. For starters, they've succeeded in playing at a slow pace and shortening the game – a logical choice for a squad that is outmanned talent-wise nearly each and every night. Second is the Wildcats can't shoot. Last time out vs. Wisconsin, NW shot 50% from 2, 44% from 3, and 75% from the FT line – a near perfect performance by their standards that netted them a modest 65 points. Even with that showing, NW checks in at 0.84 ppp – a historical bad rate. Lastly, the Wildcats play sound team defense holding five of their last six foes to 40% or less effective FG%. Minnesota wants to push the pace but finding it difficult in the Big Ten (8th, 65.2 possessions per game). And Andre Hollins, the team’s top offensive option, it out with an ankle injury. I keep waiting Read more

Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Minnesota Golden Gophers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes

01.18.2014     07:48 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
UCLA at Utah +2
Recommendation: Utah

It's always a tough spot for PAC-12 teams to play at Colorado and Utah on a Thursday-Saturday swing. Not only are you forced to face two quality teams but the home courts are fairly strong and the elevation can wear on you late in games. We saw both Oregon schools lose and fail to cover earlier this season; Oregon at Colorado and Oregon State at Utah in the second of back-to-backs. I expect that to be the case with UCLA as they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Utes.

UCLA played very well on Thursday, controlling Colorado throughout for a 69-56 win. It was the Buffs' first game without Spencer Dinwiddie and while his absence hurt, the Bruins earned that victory. But this is a very young squad and unlike Colorado, Utah's confidence, particularly on offense, is brimming following Thursday's 84-66 win over USC.

The home court at the Huntsman Center is real and so are the Utes whose three PAC-12 losses were by three points or less. Unlike Colorado, Utah will be able to keep pace with UCLA's offense and at home they have the capabilities of coming up with stops down the stretch. Quintessential Read more

Tags: College Basketball UCLA Bruins Utah Utes Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Bradley Braves at Northern Iowa Panthers

01.01.2014     06:16 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Bradley at Northern Iowa -12
Recommendation: Northern Iowa

I don't like laying double-digits in a conference game any more than the next bettor but until Bradley can turn things around, the fade train rolls on. The Braves went 0-for-December both straight up and against the spread. And the competition was comprised of nothing but fellow mid-majors. Offensively, the Braves struggle to score (0.96 ppp), can't shoot from the outside (28.1% 3-pt.), and are turnover prone (20.2%). Last season, Bradley won one conference road game against bottom feeder Southern Illinois. Their losses were by margins of 15, 31 (Northern Iowa), 10, 34, 17, 20, 11, 8, and 13 (Northern Iowa). Northern Iowa has played a very tough schedule against the likes of Maryland, Iowa State, VCU, and Virginia. The Panthers took their lumps but it was great prep for Missouri Valley play. Of late, we've seen NIU score wins-by-margin at home against VCU and Iona. I'm not going to overthink this one: Bradley has been outmanned and outplayed for much of the season and this is one of their toughest opponents/venues. Chalk time.

Tags: College Basketball Bradley Braves Northern Iowa Panthers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Cal State Fullerton Titans at UNLV Rebels

12.28.2013     07:58 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cal State Fullerton at UNLV -13
Recommendation: UNLV

The schedule has been favorable but I've really been impressed with UNLV's play of late. Defensively, the Rebels are extremely talented with the ability to apply pressure and contest shots from all over the court. Their style essentially limits the opposition to one means of scoring and that's the two-point shot as UNLV defends the three extremely well (25.3%) and doesn't foul (15% of opp. points from FTs). Against lower-tier competition, the Rebels have posted wins of 19, 22, 19, 32, 21, and 16. And tonight's opponent Cal State Fullerton isn't far removed from that group of foes. The Titans don't have much of a resume with losses to Seattle (twice), San Jose State (by 22), and College of Charleston (by 13). When asked to step up in class, CSF was handled by USC (76-62) and Marquette (86-66). Fullerton did fall to Miami by two at home but the Hurricanes are a shell of their former selves. On the court, CSF is going to have a difficult time with UNLV's front court as the Titans don't have much of any size. Defensively, the Rebels have a massive edge and if they can continue to knock down outside Read more

Tags: College Football Cal State Fullerton Titans UNLV Rebels Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Southern Utah Thunderbirds at San Diego Toreros

12.21.2013     07:16 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Southern Utah at San Diego -21.5
Recommendation: San Diego

Southern Utah is arguably the worst DI team in the country. Their losses this year have come by margins of 33, 28, 15 (vs. Riverside at home), 29, 22, and 37. There was some decent competition is that bunch but there was also Northridge and Portland – two teams not that far removed from tonight's opponent San Diego. The Toreros have had a tough schedule of late with competitive losses to New Mexico, San Diego State, and UC Santa Barbara. A quick glance at USD’s resume suggests it isn't capable of laying this type of price with non-blowout wins over Grand Canyon, Morgan State, Greensboro and Southern Illinois. They did however wax Northern Kentucky on the road and trust me when I say all of those aforementioned teams are significantly stronger than Southern Utah. There aren't many of them but the Thunderbirds are a squad that you simply bet against every opportunity in non-conference play. Once Big Sky play starts, you'll see them compete in a handful of contests but tonight there's a class difference and the home squad can name the score.

Follow me on Twitter Read more

Tags: College Basketball Southern Utah Thunderbirds San Diego Toreros Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks at Minnesota Golden Gophers

12.20.2013     08:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Nebraska-Omaha at Minnesota -15.5 O/U 156
Recommendation: See write-up

I'm expecting an up-tempo affair tonight with Nebraska-Omaha heading to Minnesota. Omaha is one of the country's fastest teams at nearly 75 possessions per game. And not only do they play fast, but they are also efficient (1.06 ppp, 51.3 effective FG%, 76.5 FT%). On the flip side, they don't play much in the way of defense as Iowa, Drake, Bakersfield and Nevada all topped the 80-point mark. Minnesota first-year head coach Richard Pitino wants to play up-tempo basketball but due to their opponents (a handful of moderately paced teams) and the Gophers' personnel, it had yet to really play out. But there have been signs. Coastal Carolina, who can’t score like UNO, prefers to run and played to 71 possessions (154 points) vs. Minnesota. UM's game against Arkansas produced 160 points and 72 possessions. This game marks a perfect storm of sorts for Minny's offense to unload: at home, vs. a team that likes to run and doesn't play much defense. One thing I've noticed with playing games over that are projected to be up-tempo is that the first half tends to have a nice flow whereas the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks Minnesota Golden Gophers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

12.17.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh (at MSG)
Recommendation: Cincinnati +3 1st half

It is common knowledge that when Cincinnati plays a comparable foe, the Bearcats are going to struggle to put the ball in the basket. But over the last two games, things have gone from not-so-good to historically bad. Against New Mexico and Xavier, the Bearcats shot 23-of-73...from 2-point range! And going up against Pittsburgh is far from an ideal situation for a dramatic turnaround. But while I'm well aware that points will likely be at a premium, what I do expect to improve is Cinci's effort. Every quote you read following last Saturday's loss to rival Xavier wasn’t so much on the score but the lack of fight – which under Mick Cronin is rarely an issue.

“It’s inexcusable,” said Cronin, who’s now 3-5 vs. Xavier. “We’re not tough enough on the defensive end. We’re not tough enough to get the ball to the open man when teams are doing whatever they’re doing defensively to us. Really, anything that involves toughness right now is a real big problem for our team.”

Pittsburgh comes into Read more

Tags: College Basketball Cincinnati Bearcats Pittsburgh Panthers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Dartmouth Big Green at Fort Wayne Mastodons

12.07.2013     08:46 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Dartmouth at Fort Wayne -6.5
Recommendation: Fort Wayne

Following Illinois' 57-55 win over Fort Wayne, head coach John Groce had nothing but praise for the Mastodons.

“I saw that over the past two days (of watching film),” Groce explained. “I thought ‘Oh boy, these guys are a team.’ They really gel well together at both ends of the floor.”

“They were really physical,” Groce said. “They beat us to loose balls. They played really, really well.”

IPFW should have won the game had it not been for a 2-of-13 effort from the free throw line.

This showing however wasn't an isolated incident as IPFW lost on a buzzer-beater three at Dayton to start the year – and we know the Flyers are a quality basketball team.

But as with a lot of mid-major teams, getting up for the big boys isn't hard, it's staying focused against comparable competition – hence why IPFW has losses at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Miami-Ohio. The loss to Miami last time out was a home run spot for the RedHawks though IPFW had a 16 point second half lead Read more

Tags: College Basketball Dartmouth Big Green Fort Wayne Mastodons Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Boston College Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers

12.04.2013     12:25 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Boston College +4 at Purdue O/U 151.5
Recommendation: Boston College

Purdue hasn't done much of anything this year to be deserving of this price range for tonight's game against Boston College. The Boilermakers struggled against the likes of Northern Kentucky, Rider, Siena (twice), and also lost outright by 15 points to a bottom-tier Washington State squad. Head coach Matt Painter on his team's struggles: “I’ve never, as an assistant or a head coach, been with a team that can show such promise in one half and the other half lose their focus or not make winning basketball plays, not tough it out on a certain possession,” to this extent, Painter said. “It’s a hard thing, and it’s a positive that you show that you can be successful, but it’s also a negative in terms of when things don’t go your way, you’re not able to right the ship. You have to show more consistency.”

The reason for the inconsistency as well as last year's sub .500 finish is easy to pinpoint – Painter just doesn't have the talent he's accustoming to working with in West Lafayette.

Boston Read more

Tags: College Basketball Boston College Eagles Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange


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