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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears

02.16.2012     09:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon +11 at California 139.5
Recommendation: Oregon


I think we can take advantage of all of the damage Cal handed out to opponents on its home court during the non-conference and step in and play a surging Oregon squad as a double-digit underdog. A closer look at Cal's home results show that when the competition is halfway decent, the wins haven’t come by big margins. The Golden Bears beat Colorado by 7, Stanford by 10 and lost to Arizona by 4. Their most impressive win was more spot-oriented as they took down UCLA 85-69 with the Bruins off a one-point loss two nights prior. Oregon has actually passed Cal for the league's best offense (109.5 points per possession) and the Ducks have for the most part played solid defense this season. This is an important game for both sides, especially Oregon who theoretically is still in the PAC-12 title hunt or perhaps an at-large berth. I expect a big effort from the road side which gives us value with Read more


Tags: College Basketball Oregon Ducks California Golden Bears Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: Another late season slide for Stanford

02.16.2012     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon State at Stanford -4 O/U 143

Article on Stanford's notorious late season slides under head coach Johnny Dawkins. The Cardinal enter tonight's contest against Oregon State having lost five of their last seven (2-5 ATS). Their only wins and covers came against bottom feeders USC and Arizona State. Stanford opened a 5-point favorite but was bet down to -4.


Stanford's recent slump continues a disquieting trend of late-season tail-offs or outright collapses during Dawkins' four years on the Farm. In his first season, the team won its first 10 games and was 13-3 before losing 11 of its last 18. The 2009-10 team was 10-9 before losing nine of its last 13. Last year the Cardinal were 10-5, then lost 11 of 16.






Tags: College Basketball Stanford Cardinals Oregon State Beavers




College Basketball Betting Tips: Making money on losing teams

02.16.2012     06:19 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

After cashing our 20* Big Drive ACC Game of the Year winner on Boston College Sunday, I decided to do some additional research on losing teams and a follow up from our blog on February 13. I searched through the top college basketball money earners and ATS winners and here are the losing teams that are producing the most profit. Just another example of how losing teams can actually make money for bettors willing to leave their comfort zone and bet on “bad” teams; especially as underdog. Note that of the top-60 college basketball teams that have produced the most profit, only seven have losing records. I’ve also included those seven teams ATS record at home and their ATS record as underdog.

College Basketball Losing Teams That Have Earned Profits
Team
SU Record
ATS Record
Home ATS
Underdog ATS
Arkansas-Little Rock
12-14
16-6
6-3
14-4
Pacific
10-15
14-7
6-4
12-3
Dartmouth
4-20
10-4-1
2-2
10-4-1
Fresno State
11-16
15-9
5-4
10-4
Boston College
8-17
12-7
4-6
12-5
Jacksonville State
11-17
13-9
2-4
10-4
UTEP
12-13
12-8-1
5-3
8-4


These losing teams have also produced profit as an underdog and rank in the top-80 of college basketball profit producing teams: Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Siena, Samford, Illinois-Chicago, and Florida International.

Plenty of losing teams that are also losing Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin travels to Michigan State

02.16.2012     06:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisconsin at Michigan State -6 O/U 114.5

Looking to keep pace with first place Ohio State, Wisconsin travels to East Lansing to face Michigan State. The Spartans won in overtime in Madison, 63-60, back on January 3. Wisconsin though appears to be a different team, having won seven of eight since starting the Big Ten season 1-3. Meanwhile the Spartans are 9-3 with two of their three league losses by a single point. At home vs. the Big Ten, MSU is 6-0 with wins by 15, 34, 25, 16, 10 and 20. And according to Tom Izzo, this year's group may be the best defense he's ever coached.


"They're playing a lot better and a huge part of that is Taylor playing a lot better," Spartans forward Draymond Green said. "He's a lot more like what everyone expected him to be. Read more



Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Michigan State Spartans




College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal-Northridge Matadors

02.15.2012     12:29 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cal Poly -6.5 at Cal-Northridge O/U 130.5
Recommendation: Over


Despite playing at a super slow pace, seven of Cal Poly's 12 Big West games have topped 130 points. One of the reasons behind that is the lack of quality defenses. Only two teams (Long Beach and Riverside) allow less than a point per possession in conference play. And despite its label of being defensive minded, Cal Poly has really been nothing more than average at stopping Big West opponents (102.1 ppp allowed, 5th out of 9 teams). The Big West is split into teams that play fast (Long Beach, Fullerton, Irvine, Northridge and Davis) and teams that prefer a slower tempo (Santa Barbara, Poly, Pacific and Riverside). Against the "faster" teams, Cal Poly's games produced scores of 105, 140, 116, 147, 154, 132, 144 and 151. It was contests against the "slower" teams that have kept CP’s pace number low and their defense appearing respectable (game scores: 115, 113, 112 and 106). Northridge plays up-tempo and sports the worst defense in the league. And with the exception of the 100-54 loss to Cal Poly back in late January, the Matadors somehow, someway always find a way Read more


Tags: College Basketball Cal Poly Mustangs Cal-Northridge Matadors Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Murray State was destine to eventually lose

02.15.2012     12:01 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good blog post from ken Pomeroy on the variance in college basketball, in particular Murray State. According to Pomeroy's numbers, the Racers were never better than a 50% shot to go undefeated – a far cry from what ESPN was spewing out of its mouth. Essentially, they are a good team – the best in the OVC – but they were eventually going to lose and will inevitably lose another game or two before the end of the season.


The thing is, Murray never reached a point during the season where they were better than a 50% proposition to go unbeaten in conference. You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.

There’s lots of unexplained variance in a college basketball game. The Vegas line has long been proven to be the best predictor of outcomes, and while it has the reputation among some Read more



Tags: College Basketball Murray State Racers




NCAA Basketball Gambling: New Mexico favored at San Diego State

02.15.2012     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New Mexico -1 at San Diego State O/U 129.5

First place on the line in the Mountain West tonight as New Mexico (20-4, 6-2 MWC) travels to San Diego State (20-4, 6-2). The Aztecs won in Albuquerque, 75-70, on January 18.


It’s a big revenge game,” Hardeman said. “But just to be playing against San Diego State is going to be big for us because they’re ranked in the top 25 and I feel this is a game we need.”

“The league changes,” Lobo head coach Steve Alford said. “Three weeks ago, this wasn’t what the league looked like. Three weeks ago we were next to last.”





Tags: College Basketball New Mexico Lobos San Diego State Aztecs




College Basketball Handicapping: Strong late season situationals

02.15.2012     06:49 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is the time of the college basketball season when many of our long term positive profiles and strong situations develop. Second meets, qualified revenge situations, last home games and additional profiles and parameters produce profit year after year. Tonight we have another top-rated Big Drive play that fits one of our proven profiles and situations with additional subsets and parameters that guide us to our selection. When we combine some of these late season situations with positive statistical parameters in our match-up evaluation, we have a play worth full support.

As you look over a college card and dig deeper into the surrounding situations and match-up, here’s something to guide you for future winners. Keep in mind some of the information I discuss is proprietary, so I don’t give out all the details in regards to exact ATS results or perhaps a specific subset or situation in addition to our base premise and profile. After all, I do get paid for providing positive pointspread prognosis and winning information. 

But here we go. At this time of the season, teams are playing second meets or opponents for the second time. Winning teams Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




College Basketball Betting Trends: Tennessee State's 2nd half domination

02.14.2012     01:35 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

I happen to stumble upon this tidbit with Tennessee State who has won seven straight and is currently in second place of the Ohio Valley Conference at 10-4. The Tigers have shown a strong trend of failing to show up early and playing out of their minds after the break. They've held a halftime lead in only seven of their 14 league games which has resulted in a dismal 3-11 ATS first half mark. But for whatever reason, TSU has played like gods in the second halves of these games, outscoring all but one of their 14 opponents by a combined tally of 610-484 – good for an amazing 12-2 ATS. That is an average second half score of 43.6-34.6. In the first half, they were outscored by a combined 46 points. Tonight, Tennessee State plays host to Jacksonville State. Play accordingly.

Tennessee State 1st Half/2nd Half Betting Trends as of 2/14/2012
Opponent
Halftime Score
TSU 1st Half ATS
Final Score
TSU 2nd Half ATS
Tennessee Tech
TSU 28, TTU 27
Loss
TSU 68, TTU 53
Win
Murray State
MSU 40, TSU 33
Loss
TSU 72, MSU 29
Win
Southeast Missouri
SEMO 35, TSU 30
Loss
TSU 75, SEMO 72
Win
Austin Peay
TSU 29, APSU 20
Win
TSU 77, ASPU 57
Win
Eastern Kentucky
EKU 38, TSU 32
Loss
TSU 91, EKU 85 OT
Win
Tennessee-Martin
TSU 26, UTM 25
Loss
TSU 72, UTM 59
Win
Eastern Illinois
TSU 29, EIU 23
Win
TSU 55, EIU 46
Win
Austin Peay
TSU 29, APSU 28
Win
APSU 69, TSU 63
Loss
SIU-Edwardsville
SIUE 24, TSU 17
Loss
TSU 52, SIUE 49
Loss
Morehead State
TSU 34, MOR 32
Loss
TSU 77, MOR 72
Win
Jacksonville State
JSU 39, TSU 22
Loss
JSU 72, TSU 65
Win
Tennessee Tech
TTU 42, TSU 36
Loss
TTU 92, TSU 86
Win
Eastern Kentucky
EKU 41, TSU 17
Loss
EKU 73, TSU 68
Win
Tennessee-Martin
TSU 41, UTM 35
Loss
TSU 83, UTM 67
Win




Tags: College Basketball Tennessee State Tigers Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Betting: Lack of defense the source of Mississippi State's struggles

02.14.2012     12:10 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Mississippi State -1 at LSU O/U 134

Mississippi State is back to playing wildly inconsistent basketball with a 4-3 record (2-5 ATS) over the last month. Keeping the Bulldogs from becoming the class of the SEC West is their poor defensive performances. In SEC play, MSU is allowing 71.8 ppg. During last year's SEC regular season, MSU allowed over a point per possession in half of their games. This season, six of their last seven opponents have topped that mark and the Bulldogs ranks 11th or 12th (out of 12 SEC teams) in defensive efficiency, effective FG%, and 3-point% defense. An even worse stat is the paltry 79 turnovers forced in 10 games. These deficiencies are someone mystifying considering that from a personnel standpoint – both on the perimeter and in the paint Read more


Tags: College Basketball Mississippi State Bulldogs LSU Tigers



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