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NCAA Basketball Betting Update: Efficiency margins in league play

02.21.2012     11:48 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Basketball Prospectus' updated breakdown of conference-by-conference points per possession scored and allowed in league play. Below are this week's leaders. Full listing here.

Top efficiency margins (PPP-Opponent PPP)
ACC - North Carolina +0.15
Big XII - Kansas +0.19
Big East - Syracuse +0.17
Big Ten - Ohio State/Michigan State +0.19
PAC-12 - California +0.16
SEC - Kentucky +0.26
Atlantic-10 - Temple/Saint Louis +0.14
Colonial - Drexel +0.16
C-USA - Memphis +0.19
Horizon - Cleveland State +0.13
Missouri Valley - Wichita State +0.20
Mountain West - New Mexico +0.20
West Coast - Gonzaga +0.17
WAC - Nevada +0.13






College Basketball Handicapping: Efficiency margins in league play

02.07.2012     11:15 AM Read more


Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Kansas State Wildcats at Missouri Tigers

02.21.2012     10:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas State +9 at Missouri O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Kansas State


When Kansas State and Missouri met last month in Manhattan, the Wildcats were able to take away one of the Tigers’ biggest strengths by avoiding turnovers that would have inevitably lead to fast break buckets the other way.  K-State was also able to dominate the glass, with a 36-22 rebounding edge.  The result was a 75-59 KSU win as a one-point underdog; an easy “right side” cash for anyone who supported Frank Martin’s squad.

In the rematch tonight, the Wildcats are nine-point underdogs.  Yes, Missouri is in revenge from that earlier defeat.  And yes, Missouri is a perfect 16-0 in Columbia this year, cashing pointspread at a 70% clip on their home floor.   That still doesn’t mean that the Tigers are likely to win this game by a double-digit margin.  Let’s not forget that if the Tigers don’t force Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kansas State Wildcats Missouri Tigers Teddy Covers




College Basketball Free Play: New Mexico Lobos at Colorado State Rams

02.21.2012     07:49 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New Mexico at Colorado State +6 O/U 135
Recommendation: Colorado State


Following a pair of convincing redemption wins over San Diego State and UNLV, the New Mexico Lobos (22-4) have taken control of the Mountain West Conference at 8-2. They hold a two-game lead over SDSU and UNLV, and tonight’s contest is their toughest remaining conference game. Tough to step in front of the red hot Lobos when they are playing so well: 7-0 SU and ATS run with every win by at least 10 points. 

Consider that the Lobos are winning with a dominating defense that has held six opponents to 54 or fewer points the last seven games. They also lead the league in rebounding margin which gives them a sound formula for success. The league’s top two FG shooters are on the Lobos with their inside/outside combination of Drew Gordon (52%) and Kendal Williams (53%). Gordon also leads the league in rebounding at over 11 per game. Add in the top field goal and Read more


Tags: College Basketball Colorado State Rams New Mexico Lobos __




College Basketball Handicapping: Last home games and motivational situations

02.21.2012     07:16 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Some of the strongest situations involving revenging home teams playing their last home game are on the schedule the next two weeks. While many of these focused favorites will deliver wins on senior day in emotional environments, the most powerful profiles often involve those home teams with winning records that have the talent and ability to get redemption over an opponent which beat them earlier in the year. Clearly we have to evaluate the betting line along with stats, injuries, recent results, opponents and the situations surrounding these last home games.

I’ve done the research for you and provided the teams that will be playing their last home game with single season revenge over the next week. These are all winning home teams.  Last year on the last Saturday in February, the winning and revenging home teams playing their final home game went 8-1 ATS. So some strong situations to support over the next two weeks over and above the ones I review in this article.

If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to determine how to use strong or weak home courts, last home games (LHG), emotional components or other stats and situations to your Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




SEC Betting Notes: Mississippi State tries to take down Kentucky

02.21.2012     06:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kentucky -8.5 at Mississippi State O/U 139.5

If you can't beat Georgia, LSU and Auburn, then how do you expect to take down the best team in the nation? That is what currently slumping Mississippi State must deal with tonight in Starkville as Kentucky comes strolling to town. We know the Bulldogs are capable and the Wildcats are due for a loss – aren't they?. But if both teams bring their "B" game, the road side wins by double-digits.


"I've seen a lot of Kentucky teams and this may be as good as I've Read more



Tags: College Basketball Mississippi State Bulldogs Kentucky Wildcats




College Basketball Gambling: Spot says Seton Hall, stats say Georgetown

02.21.2012     06:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Georgetown -2 at Seton Hall O/U 122.5

Seton Hall is saying all of the right things heading into tonight's game against Georgetown.


“It’s life and death. It means everything for our season,” said senior point guard and team leader Jordan Theodore. “We have a chance to make the (NCAA) tournament. We can solidify our spot in the tournament if we get this win.”



But before you support the Pirates in this "must win" situation, consider the following...

Seton Hall Wins (Big East defensive rank)
West Virginia - 11th
UConn - 9th
Providence - 15th
DePaul - 16th
Rutgers - 10th
Pittsburgh - 12th
St. John's - 14th

Seton Hall Losses (Big East defensive rank)
Syracuse - 3rd
UConn - Read more


Tags: College Basketball Seton Hall Pirates Georgetown Hoyas




College Basketball Handicapping: Cashing in on a Three Dog Night

02.20.2012     01:22 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This past weekend was a Three Dog Night as we cashed three underdog winners on Sunday as part of a 3-0 day in CBB/NBA. Saturday we cashed four college basketball underdog winners and back on February 9, we also cashed three underdog CBB winners. Some of these plays are part of our late season situationals including revenge plays such as Oregon’s whipping of Washington 82-57 as a home underdog. As mentioned in this blog, we also have many last home game (LHG) situations upcoming the final two weeks, and we’ll try to continue our solid run through February and top play success; now 46-23 on our top-rated Big Drive plays in college basketball the past 80 days.

The opportunities ahead are tremendous in college basketball. We conclude the regular season over the next two weeks, and college conference tournaments (CCT’s) begin this month for smaller conferences followed by the postseason tournaments and the big dance, NCAA Tournament. This Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




NCAA Basketball Gambling: Bettors support suspect UConn squad at Villanova

02.20.2012     07:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Connecticut -3.5 at Villanova O/U 138

Since mid-January UConn has won two games: at home vs. Seton Hall and DePaul. Yet despite the weak resume, bettors are gung-ho in their support of the Huskies tonight at Villanova. Notre Dame, which is without question a better team than UConn, closed -3 at Villanova on Saturday and needed a 16-point second half rally and overtime to beat the Wildcats. Perhaps that disappointing result will be too much for 'Nova to overcome. Regardless, backing UConn at its current price has absolutely no value. Line history courtesy of CRIS.

copy_Uconn_villanova.JPG




Tags: College Basketball UConn Huskies Villanova Wildcats




College Basketball Handicapping: Last Home Game situations

02.20.2012     07:01 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As we near the conclusion of another winning and profitable college basketball season, I often isolate some solid Last Home Game situations that have proven profitable for many seasons.  These are not just plays on home teams, but also against lesser or “towel tosser” teams playing on weaker home courts.

Many of these LHG’s bring a level of emotion and effort from both the players and fans as the seniors make their final appearance for the home faithful.  Three seasons ago, Indiana lost its last nine regular season games and had just one senior, five freshman and six walk-ons. One of those freshmen was Verdell Jones lll who will play his final game at Assembly Hall as a senior on March 4. Indiana was a 14-point home underdog to top-10 Michigan State, but battled hard to the end to cash the ticket in a five-point loss.

Those kind of efforts and situations are prevalent throughout the final weeks of the season, and it gives you an idea of the emotion and meaning of these late season contests in front of their home fans.  While some teams are pushing for conference titles, others are just trying to finish above .500 or prepare Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




NCAA Gambling Notes: Oregon admits it is out of PAC-12 race

02.19.2012     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon at Stanford -6 O/U 136

Heading into Thursday's game at Cal, Oregon was right in the thick of the PAC-12 title race. After a tough three-point loss to the Golden Bears, the Ducks dropped to fifth and are all but out of contention. Telling quote from head coach Dana Altman following the loss to Cal…


"We're in bad shape for the (title) race. ... We had to have that one, we knew that," Oregon coach Dana Altman said of the loss to the co-leading Bears. "We can't worry about the race now."





Tags: College Basketball Oregon Ducks Stanford Cardinal



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