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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Butler Bulldogs at Northwestern Wildcats

12.08.2012     08:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Butler at Northwestern -1.5 O/U 128.5
Recommendation: Under

I view Northwestern's 74-point, 68-possession performance at Baylor last time out as an outlier of what we can expect from the Wildcats for much of the season. Prior to that, in games against TCU, Illinois State, Maryland and UIC, Northwestern failed to top a point per possession or shoot over 45% eFG%. I made a play on Northwestern/Maryland UNDER the other day and was done in by a wild flurry of points from the Terps to start the second half. For 35 minutes, that contest played in the low 120's. And that is what I expect to see tonight against Butler. Of those four previously mentioned teams, the Bulldogs play arguably the best team defense of the bunch. Meaning, they aren't going to get carved up by Northwestern's backdoor cuts or consistently allow them open looks from three. This contest may not even top 60 possessions. If that's the case, then both teams are going to need to have above average Read more

Tags: College Basketball Butler Bulldogs Northwestern Wildcats Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: UCLA unable to commit to man-to-man defense

12.07.2012     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
UCLA has been forced to play a lot more zone defense in order to mask the teams' deficiencies. Head coach Ben Howland has always been a supporter of man-to-man defense but for a second straight year he’s reluctant to commit to it on a full time basis. In UCLA's three losses it allowed 1.09 points per possession or more and well above 50% effective FG%. The Bruins face Texas in Houston on Saturday.

"I think we can (be a good man defense), but I think we've got a lot of work to do," Howland said after the 83-60 victory. "I think we've got to be able to mix it up and keep people off balance by changing defenses with this group. But we've got to continue to evolve defensively in our man. ... We've got to be able to switch up and play man on teams that shoot the ball well."

"We've got a little ways to go," senior forward David Wear said. "We need to stop the lapses on defense. ... Especially in games coming up like Texas or Missouri. And once we start getting into conference play too, we know we're not going to be able

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Tags: College Basketball UCLA Bruins

College Basketball Gambling: Plenty of points expected in Iowa-Iowa State matchup

12.07.2012     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Iowa State at Iowa -2 O/U 151.5

The annual Cy-Hawk rivalry goes tonight with Iowa State traveling to Iowa City. The Cyclones have won three straight in the series. The betting markets are expecting another up-tempo affair with the total now 151.5 after opening 147.5. ISU won last year's meeting in Ames, 86-76 (71 possessions).

"Every day," Lucious said, "Football, basketball — no matter what the sport is — everyone talks about Iowa State wanting to beat Iowa or Iowa wanting to beat Iowa State, so it’s going to be intense."

“We’ve got to cut that down, especially if we want to compete on Friday,” Hoiberg said of his team giving the ball away. “If we want to have a chance, we can’t turn the ball over 20 times. We’ll get blown out if we do that. We have to

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Iowa State Cyclones Iowa Hawkeyes

College Basketball Handicapping: Defending the three-point shot

12.06.2012     02:23 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good read from Ken Pomeroy on how teams' three-point percentage defense is essentially a random stat. Pomeroy feels that not allowing opponents to shoot three-pointers is a far better indication of defensive prowess on the perimeter. 

Tags: College Basketball

College Basketball Gambling Free Pick: Santa Barbara Gauchos at San Diego State Aztecs

12.06.2012     11:51 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Cal-Santa Barbara at San Diego State -15
Recommendation: San Diego State

I have enjoyed a few winners betting against UC Santa Barbara this season and I was also able to cash a ticket betting on San Diego State in their win in Anaheim against UCLA on Saturday. I think tonight’s road game at San Diego offers another great opportunity to fade the Gauchos.

Don’t be fooled by UCSB’s last and only road win of the season against Santa Clara, 83-80 in OT. The Broncos were terrible in that game. Santa Clara shot only 36% from the floor and were plagued by turnovers and foul trouble. UCSB had a rare hot shooting night pouring in the basketball at a 45.3% clip from the floor but that’s been the exception, not the rule for the Gauchos this season. In their other games, they failed to score more than 72 points against Division I competition. UCSB has been annihilated in every other road game besides the Santa Clara game Read more

Tags: College Basketball UC Santa Barbara Gauchos San Diego State Aztecs Ian Cameron

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Vanderbilt Commodores at Xavier Musketeers

12.06.2012     07:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Vanderbilt at Xavier -11 O/U 129
Recommendation: Under

Vanderbilt is in an obvious rebuilding year and as a result we've seen a dramatic change in style. The Commodores have really struggled to score and have no choice but to try and slow down the pace of their games. Their last four contests have featured 62, 60, 62, and 62 possessions. Bottom line is Vanderbilt is not going to win any games by outscoring the competition. Xavier too went through a lot of offseason transformation and as a result isn't comfortable playing at the pace of previous editions. The Musketeers played a few moderate scoring affairs on neutral courts but I looked to home games against Butler and Robert Morris as a better indication of how this team will play tonight. Against the Bulldogs, Xavier grinded out a 62-47 win with only 57 possessions. Against Robert Morris, a similar result with a 61-59 win and only 59 possessions. Last time out against Purdue, it was another ugly affair with Read more

Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Xavier Musketeers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Boise State Broncos at Utah Utes

12.05.2012     11:27 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Boise State -6 at Utah
Recommendation: Boise State

Boise State has been an ATS machine in recent games. The Broncos are 6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS and all those old problems of not being able to win games and cover pointspreads on the highway may just be a thing of the past. Boise State took Michigan State down to the wire in East Lansing in a 74-70 loss, easily covering as 15-point road underdogs. In an early season shocker, Boise State took down Creighton in Omaha by 13 points as 13-point road dogs. And in their last game, there was no letdown for the Broncos who demolished Seattle on the road 87-64 as 9-point road chalk.

Boise State is led by the backcourt duo of Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks who have combined for 34.6 ppg this season on a Broncos team that can flat out score at will. Boise State has scored no less than 70 points in all but one of those games including topping the 80-point mark four times including in that whopping upset at Creighton. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Boise State Broncos Utah Utes Ian Cameron

College Basketball Gambling Free Play: San Jose State Spartans at UC Davis Aggies

12.05.2012     07:56 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
San Jose State at UC Davis -3.5
Recommendation: UC Davis

We alerted the listening audience to the improvement of UC Davis during last Wednesday’s Sportsmemo podcast. Later that night, they went into the Lawlor Events Center as +11.5 point underdogs and easily covered in their 84-83 near upset of Nevada. Three days later they opened as 9.5-point underdogs at Idaho and were pounded by the betting market down to +6.5 and finally closed at +8.5. The result was a ticket cashing for almost all of their backers as the Aggies came within seven, 73-66. The 1-4 SU record and 4-1 ATS mark are a clear indication that UC Davis has been undervalued in the early going.  The team’s -1.6 point differential after five games also signals value.

The reasons for the swift change from last season’s debacle to the eye opening start of this campaign are multiple. For starters, the team has a much better grasp of second year head coach Jim Read more

Tags: College Basketball San Jose State Spartans UC Davis Aggies Rob Veno

College Basketball Gambling: Florida State tries to bounce back against rival Florida

12.05.2012     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Florida -5.5 at Florida State

Florida State limps into tonight rivalry tilt against Florida off a home loss to Mercer. The Seminoles have wins over BYU and St. Joe's but also lost at home to South Alabama to start the year. FSU is a young team and as head coach Leonard Hamilton pointed out, still trying to find consistency. Florida comes in a perfect 6-0. This will mark the Gators' first true road game of the season.

“That energy, that intensity, that junkyard dog mentality that’s been characteristic of our teams over the last several years seems to be missing from this team,” FSU coach Leonard Hamilton said following his team’s 61-56 loss to Mercer on Sunday. “It’s easy to hide behind the fact that we have so many inexperienced young

Read more

Tags: College Basketball Florida State Seminoles Florida Gators

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes

12.05.2012     07:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Colorado State at Colorado -5
Recommendation: Colorado

I don’t see a lot of difference between these two teams but I do feel that the situation favors the home side. Last time out, Colorado had a two-point halftime lead at Wyoming before falling apart in the second half. The Cowboys are a solid team (see: last night’s win at Illinois State) but everything went their way including some favorable calls and a few bailout threes. Head coach Tad Boyle on his team’s effort against Wyoming: "And we've got five Colorado Buffaloes bending over, standing at the waist trying to get it. He just out scrapped us," Boyle lamented. "That was the epitome of why the Wyoming Cowboys won, and why the Colorado Buffaloes lost." I’ve watched enough of Colorado to know that Boulder is a special venue and I expect their best effort of the season. CSU has done no wrong this season including a road win at Washington. Like Wyoming, this is Read more

Tags: College Basketball Colorado Buffaloes Colorado State Rams Andrew Lange


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