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August

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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

08.20.2015     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Duffey) +150 at Baltimore (Gonzalez) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


Minnesota swept their three-game set with Baltimore last month.  At this attractive underdog price, it’s worth taking a shot with the Twins to continue their mastery of the Orioles this evening. Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez hasn’t won a game since July and he’s only notched two quality starts in his last eleven trips to the hill.  He’s coming off a season high 110 pitch effort against Oakland in his last outing, the second straight contest where Gonzalez gave up two home runs.  I’m not anticipating an ‘A’ level effort tonight either, leaving the door open for the slumping Twins to get back on track.

There’s plenty of ‘bet-on’ Tyler Duffey in this equation as well. Duffey got lit up by the Blue Jays in his bid league debut earlier this month.  But he bounced back strong in his second outing, dominating the Indians to the tune of one hit in six scoreless innings.  The Orioles mediocrity this year has been, in large part, due to an underachieving lineup.  That Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Baltimore Orioles Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays

08.04.2015     10:17 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Hughes) at Toronto (Estrada) -160 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Toronto


Few pitchers are as hittable as Minnesota's Phil Hughes as he allowed 158 hits and 25 home runs in 135.2 innings. Adding to that is the fact that he's only fanned 80 batters. Hughes as we know is an extreme fly ball pitcher which suggests that his 4.11 ERA has nowhere to go but up moving forward. He walks into a tough spot tonight with having to navigate Toronto's lineup in the Rogers Centre. Note also that despite coming from the right side, Hughes' split are far worse against right-handed batters (.308 BA/.540 SLG) which we know the Jay have plenty of. Like Hughes, Marco Estrada is a big time fly baller but has somehow managed to keep the home runs in check (7.2% FB/HR rate).  Estrada continues to keep batters off balance with an array of offspeed pitches which has led to a very respectable 3.53 ERA. It's a number that I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain but I give him the edge over Hughes who as mentioned, is walking into arguably his toughest start of the season. Seeing a few shops with sub -160 price tags which is the way I'll go with the home side.




Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Bettors look to fade Minnesota Twins

06.29.2015     08:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Check out the heavy anti-Minnesota money in the betting markets over the past week courtesy of Pinnacle.

6/29 at Cincinnati
Minnesota Opener: +126
Minnesota Current: +146
Minnesota Result: Pending

6/28 at Milwaukee
Minnesota Opener: +125
Minnesota Close: +146
Minnesota Result: Lost 5-3

6/27 at Milwaukee
Minnesota Opener: Minnesota +112
Minnesota Close: Minnesota +124
Minnesota Result: Won 5-2

6/26 at Milwaukee
Minnesota Opener: Minnesota +106
Minnesota Close: Minnesota +123
Minnesota Result: Lost 10-4




Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins

06.21.2015     08:00 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago (Arrieta) -115 at Minnesota (Gibson) O/U 8
Recommendation: Under


Minnesota's Kyle Gibson remains somewhat under-the-radar in the betting markets. Long considered just another soft-tossing, no-upside righty the Twins seems to have a fondness for, Gibson has shown flashes of being an above average American League starter. Through 13 starts, he's posted a solid 3.33 ERA and while his K and FIP numbers aren't eye-popping I tend to give guys who have groundball rates above 50% more room for error. This isn’t a bad matchup as through this point in the season the Cubs' offense shows to be a bit weaker against right-handers. Chicago's Jake Arrieta heads into today off one of his worst starts of the season as the left-hand heavy Indians got to him for four runs. Following the game, Arrieta had said it was nothing more than missing a few spots. I look for him to bounce back today against a Twins lineup that ranks 23rd in MLB with a .677 OPS vs. righties. Some of Arrieta's success no doubt stems from a move from the AL East to the NL but he's really learned how to pitch over the last few seasons and has the numbers to back it up (82 IP, 74 hits, Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

06.13.2015     05:50 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Pelfrey) +110 at Texas (Lewis) O/U 9
Recommendation: Minnesota


Last week we got Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey as a short home underdog and he rewarded us with yet another solid outing. Pelfrey tossed 8 innings of shutout ball with a season-high seven strikeouts in a 2-0 win over Milwaukee. While we're not getting as juicy a price, Pelfrey continues to be discounted in the betting markets because of his inability to miss bats (34 Ks in 67 IP). The key though is that he's been able to offset it with a stellar 55% groundball rate which will come in handy pitching in the heat of Texas. Given the current betting marketplace, it's the guys who aren't sexy (low K-rate, so-so FIP, but know how to pitch) that provide some of the best value. Also note that Texas' lineup is better suited to face righties but Pelfrey has a very strong reverse split (.196 BA vs. lefties, .291 vs. righties). Unlike Pelfrey, I don't see much upside with Colby Lewis, especially pitching at home moving forward. Lewis sports a 4.42 ERA and 4.50 FIP despite being an extreme flyballer with an extremely fortunate 6.3% HR/FB rate. Meaning his home run rate (7 in 73.1 IP) is about to Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Texas Rangers OTTO Sports




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins

06.07.2015     06:53 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Fiers) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) +100 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


I've slowly started to accept some of Mike Fiers' success this season but don't feel as if it is sustainable and certainly don't think he warrants being a favorite in an American League park. Fiers has a lot to like: high K rate (10.7 per 9), solid FIP (3.45), and lots of deception which can make first looks difficult. But he'll take a step up in class today with the Twins a fairly capable offense. Keep an eye on the long ball today as well with warm temps and the wind blowing out to left. Fiers, of course, is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey meanwhile shows a dismal K rate (4.12), a so-so FIP (4.14), and a long track record of being a below average starter. But Pelfrey has figured some things out and really embraced the ground ball mantra which can be the elixir for pitchers who don't miss bats. He ranks 7th out of qualified starters (55.8% GB rate) and as a result has down an excellent job at keep the ball in the park with three home runs allowed including not one at Target Field. The Twins have without question overachieved to this point and were Read more



Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins OTTO Sports




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox

05.22.2015     11:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Hughes) +110 at Chicago (Samardzija) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


My clients and I cashed an underdog winner earlier this week with the Minnesota Twins and I’m more than willing to come right back and endorse them tonight. There is something to be said about momentum in baseball and the Minnesota Twins have it right now after winning 14 of their last 19 games. As for tonight’s two starters, I don’t see a whole lot of difference between Phil Hughes and Jeff Samardzija. Both have had ups and downs and battled inconsistency however Hughes is at least feeling some positive momentum having gone 7 innings while yielding only 2 runs on 5 hits against Tampa Bay his last time out. Hughes allowed just 3 runs in 6 innings in his prior start against the White Sox and his overall numbers when facing the current White Sox roster are solid as he’s allowed a collective .250 batting average. Hughes once again shows a sparkling 35-5 K-to-BB ratio. His biggest knock is the 10 home runs allowed in 51 IP but he should be aided by what expects to be cooler temps and a slight wind in front left field. On the flip side, the Chicago Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapping: Can the Twins sustain their success?

05.15.2015     09:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from FanGraphs on Minnesota's surprising start to the season. The Twins are 19-16 and on the surface, it's not that flukey of a record with their Pythagorean W-L record sitting at 18-17. One of the keys to their success -- an arguably unsustainable one -- is the ability to perform in high leverage situations. Basically, their "timing" -- or "clutch", whatever you want to call it -- has been really, really good.


If the Twins carried their current BaseRuns performance through the whole year, they’d finish with 72 expected wins, and a run differential of -87. The Twins’ full-season projection? It’s 73 expected wins, and a run differential of -75.



 

 




Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Gambling Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

04.30.2015     10:08 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago WS (Sale) -160 at Minnesota (May) O/U 7
Recommendation: Chicago


The Twins bullpen got rocked again yesterday, as Minnesota blew a four run lead at home against the Tigers.  This isn’t new or different for a bullpen that came into the season loaded with question marks; currently ranked in the bottom quartile of MLB in bullpen ERA.  And that’s bad news with Trevor May on the hill this evening.

May was knocked out of the game after getting hit by a line drive on his elbow in his last start.  While he’s been given the OK to get back on the mound today, May is not a pitcher who can afford to be at less than 100%.  We’re talking about a young hurler with a career ERA approaching 8.00 in six previous starts at Target Field.  And May is no innings eater; yet to record a single out past the sixth inning in his big league career, leaving plenty of room for another Twins bullpen implosion should we need it.

Chris Sale, on the other hand, is a legitimate ace.  He’s allowed a grand total of five runs in his three previous starts this season, including a dominating one run, five Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

04.28.2015     07:36 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit (Sanchez) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) +140 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has enjoyed some early season success with a 2.65 ERA, 61% groundball rate, and uptick in velocity through three starts. The only thing missing is the strikeouts (8 in 17 IP) but I can live with that so long as Pelfrey continues to pound the lower half of the strike zone. Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez will be making his fifth start as he owns a 5.96 ERA. His fastball velocity is a tad lower than last year and his HR per 9 is at a career high of just short of two thanks to an extremely high fly ball rate. The Twins should benefit from seeing him for the second time this year. If the Tigers can get to Sanchez, the Detroit bullpen has a combined ERA of 4.47, which ranks 26th in MLB. Also note that their top relief arm, Joakim Soria, has tossed in three straight days and is unlikely to be available this evening. Price is right for a play on the home underdog.




Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Drew Martin



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