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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

04.22.2015     10:21 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Minnesota (Pelfrey) at Kansas City (Guthrie) -150 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

It’s not really that difficult to look at a game involving Minnesota’s Mike Pelfrey as the listed starter and immediately wanting to play the other side or “over” the total. Tonight is no exception as Pelfrey will take the hill opposing Kansas City which currently ranks as MLB’s #1 offense in batting average (.310) and on-base percentage (.373). The matchup doesn’t figure to be suited for Pelfrey who is now a pitch to contact starter (only 4 Ks in his 44 batters faced) while the Royals are the toughest team in the majors to strikeout (64; next closest are Mets and Cardinals at 82). Add in his three miserable performances against Kansas City in 2013 (the only three in his career) which saw a pair of four inning or less stints, a 9.49 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, plus a  whopping 20.4 pitches per inning and the indicators are there for strong Royals run production tonight. With KC righty starter Jeremy Guthrie off to a slow start this season (5.54 ERA, 4 HRs allowed in 13 innings) the potential for Minnesota to score runs in this contest is strong Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals Rob Veno

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Minnesota Twins

03.16.2015     01:11 PM     Printer Friendly

After years of quality and consistent pitching, Minnesota's inability to produce on the mound has the organization in free-fall. There's talent on the way but the impact is still a ways off.

Minnesota Twins
2014 W-L:
2014 O/U: 87-69-6
2014 Profits: -6.5
2015 O/U Wins: 70.5
2015 AL Central Odds: +2575
Projected Starting Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone
Key Departures: None
Key Additions: Ervin Santana

Handicapper’s Take: “The Twins have fallen from the ranks of competitive MLB franchises in recent years.  They improved to 70 wins last year after winning just 66 in 2013, 66 in 2012 and 63 in 2011.  This team hasn’t shown a profit for their supporters since the 2010 campaign; the last time they were competitive.  It’s very hard to make money betting on the very worst teams in baseball, and Paul Molitor’s squad certainly has Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

09.09.2014     01:24 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Minnesota (May) at Cleveland (Bauer) -170 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

The betting markets stop concentrating on baseball as football season begins, offering savvy bettors a prime opportunity to ride some strong Under-the-Radar team trends like this one.  Minnesota has cashed eight straight Overs, 14-3 to the Over in their last 17, exactly the type of trend that nobody is paying attention to in September.   They’ve averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense during this span but their suspect pitching staff has been torched routinely, both the starters and the bullpen.

My clients and I cashed an Over bet the last time Trevor May was on the hill, a game that produced 15 combined runs against the White Sox.  May is an easy hurler to bet against. He has allowed 23 runs in 21.2 innings in five starts since his call-up from Triple-A.  He has recorded a grand total of one out past the fifth inning in those five starts and his advanced metric numbers show Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

08.11.2014     10:29 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Minnesota (Milone) -110 at Houston (Peacock) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota

Inclined to step in against Houston starter Brad Peacock who is in the midst of one of the worst stretches of pitching MLB has seen this year.  Over his last five starts, Peacock has not made it into the sixth inning once resulting in a 9.90 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and 1-4 W-L record. Causing plenty of trouble for him these past 20 innings are his 12 BB and 52 TB allowed which includes six HR. Houston even sent the righty down to Triple-A between his most recent starts but his last time out he was tagged for eight runs in five innings. With Joe Mauer scheduled to return tonight off of a successful 6-for-15 rehab stint, Minnesota’s lineup becomes more dangerous. Minnesota also welcomes former A’s starter Tommy Milone into their rotation tonight and the familiar battery of Milone-Suzuki figures to be a positive. Blind to the HP umpire at this time but should tonight’s balls and strikes caller Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Houston Astros Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

08.02.2014     08:10 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Minnesota (Twins) at Chicago WS (Carroll) -120 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Throughout his eight-year Minor League career and brief time with the Twins, Yohan Pino has flashed some seriously strong fly ball tendencies. In seven starts for the Twins his groundball rate is 29.8% and yet he's allowed only three home runs. Part of that has been the schedule with five outings in spacious Target Field and the other two in Seattle and Anaheim. Tonight he won't be able to hide as much pitching in Cellular Field. Add in the fact that the White Sox are getting a third look at Pino -- second in less than a week -- and we can expect him to give up his fair share of runs. Like Pino, Chicago's Scott Carroll has been in the minors for much of his career. He's a very fringe arm relying heavily on groundballs to survive. In 79.2 innings this season he's fanned only 41 batters. And the Cell hasn't been kind to Carroll with a 5.82 ERA and .350 BAA in 34 IP. He's also be facing the Twins for a second time Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies

07.12.2014     08:33 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Minnesota (Correia) at Colorado (Matzek) -145 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Over

It is scary to think that Colorado rookie Tyler Matzek has a 5.89 ERA in Coors Field and yet has allowed only one home run. Yes, it's only three starts but Matzek is already showing signs of not being an ideal fit for Denver. In 35 innings of work, Matzek flashes a 22-11 K-to-BB ratio as well as a 44% groundball rate. He's a first round draft pick and only 23 years old so I'll leave the door open for success down the road. But right now, expect the struggles to continue. Like Matzek, Minnesota's Kevin Correia has been fortunate with the long ball. The fly balling Correia has tossed 103.1 innings, struck out only 49, and allowed only 11 home runs. Putting a guy like that in Coors Field is a recipe for disaster – or in our case, celebration. Bottom line is we have two mediocre, pitch-to-contact, fly ball pitchers with a total of less than 11. Hope we can avoid the rain and get this one OVER the Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Mariners to start reliever Wilhelmsen vs. Twins

07.10.2014     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Minnesota (Pino) at Seattle (Wilhelmsen) -160 O/U 8

Bettors should be prepared to see a multitude of arms for the Seattle Mariners tonight as reliever/spot starter Tom Wilhelmsen is projected to go only 3-4 innings. Despite Roenis Elias lasting on 3.1 innings last night, Seattle's bullpen is in pretty good shape thanks to a handful of extended outings over the last week.

And a week removed from boasting about Seattle's impressive +70 run differential (as of 7/3) the offense has taken a complete nosedive. Over the last six games the Mariners have been outscored 20-7.

“He’s a power arm,” Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon said. “He’s got four

Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Minnesota Twins

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

06.08.2014     07:42 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Houston (McHugh) at Minnesota (Deduno)
Recommendation: Houston 5-inning

The up-start Astros continue to fly under the radar winning 10 of their last 14 games. Of course, the Astros have been easily the worst team in the Major League Baseball over the last few years as finding value with this team hasn’t been a problem nor should it be moving forward. Sunday starter Collin McHugh fits the bill for flying under the radar as well. He’s toiled in the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies organizations with 10.04 and 7.59 ERAs in each of the last two years. Obviously there is only one direction to go for the 26-year-old. The Astros have done a great job of developing his stuff coupled with up-tick in velocity. His numbers show the improvement of his repertoire as he boasts a sweet 2.52 ERA and a 54-14 K-to-BB ratio. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Samuel Deduno will toe the rubber for the Twins. Deduno has limited upside like many of the Twins starting pitchers. The right-hander Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Minnesota Twins Erin Rynning

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

06.06.2014     08:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Houston (Keuchel) at Minnesota (Hughes) -120 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under

At the start of the season, if you were to someone that Phil Hughes and Dallas Keuchel would be ranked 8th and 12th respectively in WAR among starting pitchers you would have been laughed at an accused of being drunk. But littered among all of the league's big names and arms are two unassuming guys that have figured out how to succeed at a high level. Hughes' story centers on throwing strikes and avoiding the home run ball. Clearly with Hughes pitching in Target Field as oppose to Yankee Stadium helps. It's led to a sparkling 3.12 ERA and 2.59 FIP. Keuchel goes about it in similar fashion ? miss a fair amount of bats (64 Ks in 76.2 IP) and keep the walks (15 BBs) and home runs (4) to a minimum. As a result, he currently flashes a 2.70 ERA and nearly identical 2.74 FIP. While the Twins and Astros have shown an ability to plate runs we're still dealing with two below average AL offenses in a pitcher friend park Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Alert: Darvish out, Texas gives emergency start to Scott Baker

05.27.2014     01:23 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It was just announced that Texas' Yu Darvish will have an MRI on his neck and miss tonight's start vs. Minnesota. The Rangers will reportedly go with Scott Baker who got hammered for six runs in six innings at Detroit on Friday. He threw 87 pitches.

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins


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