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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

05.06.2014     11:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Deduno) +125 at Cleveland (Tomlin) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


There’s not much respect for Twins starter Samuel Deduno in the betting markets.  Deduno pitched a handful of gems as a part time starter in both 2012 and 2013, but he really tailed off after the All Star break last year. Following shoulder surgery in the offseason,  he opened the 2014 campaign in the bullpen, and got hit hard in his first start of the season against the powerful LA Dodgers lineup just last week.

But for as inconsistent as Deduno has been, he’s got a solid track record against the Indians (.192 batting average against and 31 strikeouts in 36 innings).  And with the extended slump this Cleveland lineup is in right now, even mediocre pitching is shutting this team down.  
The Indians scored 12 runs last Friday against the White Sox, but have combined for a grand total of 18 runs while losing eight of their other nine games over the past ten Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Update: Minnesota Twins go UNDER the total in four straight

05.05.2014     11:55 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Last week we discussed the Minnesota Twins trending heavily OVER the total thanks to an improved offensive approach and woeful pitching. Since that time we've seen a regression toward the mean with the offense cooling off and a slight uptick with the starting staff. As a result, the Twins have now gone UNDER the total in four straight heading into tonight's game at Cleveland. Also note that Mike Pelfrey (7.99 ERA, 15-day DL) has been replaced by Sam Deduno in the starting rotation – a significant upgrade considering Pelfrey’s struggles.





MLB Gambling Trends: Minnesota's games continue to go OVER the total

04.28.2014     07:30 AM     Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins

05.02.2014     07:45 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore (Jimenez) at Minnesota (Nolasco) -110 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


Ubaldo Jimenez remains an easy fade due to his reduced velocity and lack of command. In 27.1 innings, Jimenez has walked 17 batters and he's averaged only six swinging strikes per game (a 6% rate vs. 8% in 2013). And if walks are going to be an issue, Minnesota isn't a good matchup as the Twins lead the American League with 133 walks and rank second in on-base percentage. Meanwhile Ricky Nolasco toes the rubber for the Twins. Nolasco's overall numbers would make most bettors squirm but his groundball rate is actually a career best 50.5% – he's suffered some due to a sky-high .355 BABIP. Also note that of Nolasco's five starts only one has been in the pitcher friendly confines of Target Field and it was without question his best start of the year (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Kansas City). Also in our favor is the potential fatigue factor with Baltimore playing a double-header at home yesterday – the last Read more


Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling Trends: Minnesota's games continue to go OVER the total

04.28.2014     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In case you haven't noticed, one of the strongest trends in MLB has been the Minnesota Twins OVER the total (18-4-1 Over/Under). When something like this occurs, it is our job as bettors to decipher why it is occuring and whether or not it will continue. One reason, as pointed out by FanGraphs, is the Twins' new love affair with taking pitches and drawing walks. Last season they finished 11th in the American League in on-base percentage (.312) and fifth in walks (533). Through the first month of 2014, Minnesota is first in OBP (.353) and walks (121). Couple that with one of the worst starting staffs in the league (6.04) and the end result is nearly every game going OVER the total. Looking ahead, it is unlikely we'll see a team OBP north of .350 much longer as opposing teams will adjust and force Minnesota to put the bat on the ball. And the pitching staff has nowhere to go but up – we think. Oddsmakers however haven't really made much of an adjustment with Minny's games totaled 7.5-8.5. Despite all of the OVERS there has yet to be a game that closed with a total of 9. Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Gambling: For a third straight year the Minnesota Twins starting pitching is awful

04.10.2014     12:39 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With so many seemingly "fringe" starters not only surviving but thriving in MLB, it is very apparent Minnesota is doing something wrong. It could be just bad luck (or poor decisions) in terms of draft picks and acquisitions but it also could be some sort of organizational philosophy. Heading into today, Minnesota's starters had the worse ERA in the American League at 6.43. And a few hours ago, Mike Pelfrey allowed six earned runs in five innings meaning that 6.43 is headed way north. Newly acquired Ricky Nolasco has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings. Phil Hughes remains a complete mess – a guy who for whatever reason decided to scrap his slider which many metrics pointed to as being his best pitch. Kevin Correria was torched in his first start (5.2 IP, 6 ERs). And Kyle Gibson has upside but still a ways from being a consistent performer. Because starting pitching accounts for a vast majority of game prices, the Twins are going to be big underdogs for much of the campaign. But as a bettor, do you trust any of those guys to go out and give you 6 innings and allowed 3 runs or Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Handicapping: Minnesota Twins hope new arms result in more wins

03.27.2014     11:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last season, the Minnesota Twins had arguably the worst starting staff in the league and it resulted in nearly 100 losses. They made a handful of moves during the offseason in the hopes of improving – which shouldn't be difficult. Newly acquired Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco have a fair amount of upside, particularly throwing in Target Field. Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey are serviceable when healthy. And Kyle Gibson, who just earned the fifth spot, is well-regarded and should benefit from the lumps (6.53 ERA) he took during last year's 10 starts. It pretty simple: Over the last three years Minnesota's team ERA was 4.55, 4.77, and 4.58 and they never won more than 66 games. In 2010, they churned out a 3.95 ERA and won the American League Central with 94 wins.


"I'm not saying we hit rock bottom last year because you can always lose more, but it felt Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

09.16.2013     11:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Hendriks) +100 at Chicago WS (Johnson) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


It’s been an ugly season for the Chicago White Sox, but it’s gotten even worse here in September. Chicago is 2-15 in their last 17 games and they’ve been outscored 84-36 so far this month, including 42-7 during their current six game skid after getting swept at home by the Indians over the weekend.

And yet somehow, this team is favored tonight.  That gives us a prime opportunity to step in and bet against this sorry squad without laying any juice! The Twins certainly aren’t juggernauts, but at least they’re competitive, a modest 7-9 in their last 16 games, with six of those seven wins coming at an underdog price.  The Twins enjoyed a late game rally to come back and beat Tampa yesterday, a solid boost of positive momentum; something that matters when we’re talking about two sub .500 teams just playing out the string.

Twins starter Liam Read more


Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Free Play: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

07.30.2013     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas City (Santana) -125 at Minnesota (Pelfrey) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Kansas City


My clients and I cashed a pair of winners with KC over the weekend in Chicago, riding KC’s current six game winning streak.  And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the surging Royals won’t be able to notch another victory against the slumping Twins this evening. 

Kansas City has a boatload of positive momentum. The Royals are winners of six straight, back to .500 for the season while trailing in the Wild Card race by only five games.  Starter Erwin Santana has been as steady and consistent as it gets all year; throwing 15 quality starts in his last 19 trips to the hill.  Santana has shut down the Twins twice already this year – 14 innings of work, four earned runs allowed in a pair of KC victories.  Coming off an eight inning, one earned run performance against the hot hitting Orioles, look for Santana to take care of business Read more


Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays

07.10.2013     09:55 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Correia) at Tampa Bay (Hellickson) O/U 8
Recommendation: Tampa Bay R/L -1.5 +110


Tampa Bay is currently MLB’s speeding locomotive and its play continues to encourage bettors to jump on. Now winners in 10 of their last 11, it’s important to note the dominance in which they’re winning games. The last nine Rays victories have all been by two or more runs and they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 48-11. Everything is clicking together right now for Tampa Bay and that especially includes the pitching of Jeremy Hellickson who is 6-1 in his last seven starts. The often inconsistent Hellickson has been on a tear defeating the power offenses of Cleveland, Baltimore, Boston, Toronto and Detroit during this stretch. In those five games, his WHIP was 1.17 and his ERA was 1.80. Add in his dominant victory over the Chicago White Sox last Friday night, and his total line the six wins during this hot streak is: 37 IP, 44 TB allowed, 1 HR, 32K-7BB, Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Tampa Bay Rays Rob Veno




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

06.18.2013     07:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago WS (Axlerod) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Now that teams are starting to get a second crack at Chicago's Dylan Axelrod, I expect his days as a full-time starter to be numbered. In his last two starts, he saw Seattle and Toronto for a second time and the results weren't pretty. Axelrod threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the Mariners back in early April and somehow did the same two weeks ago, however, he allowed a whopping 11 base runners in 5.1 innings. Against the Blue Jays last time out, he was pounded for 8 hits and 6 runs in 4 innings. Even more alarming were the nine walks in those two outings – a clear indication teams are being patient and forcing the soft-tossing righty to come in the zone. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has nowhere to go but up and even though I've read some positives and he's coming off one of his best starts of the season (7 IP, 3 ERs, 7 Ks) were still talking about a very fringe American League arm. After throwing 5.1 Read more


Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange



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