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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins

06.21.2015     08:00 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago (Arrieta) -115 at Minnesota (Gibson) O/U 8
Recommendation: Under


Minnesota's Kyle Gibson remains somewhat under-the-radar in the betting markets. Long considered just another soft-tossing, no-upside righty the Twins seems to have a fondness for, Gibson has shown flashes of being an above average American League starter. Through 13 starts, he's posted a solid 3.33 ERA and while his K and FIP numbers aren't eye-popping I tend to give guys who have groundball rates above 50% more room for error. This isn’t a bad matchup as through this point in the season the Cubs' offense shows to be a bit weaker against right-handers. Chicago's Jake Arrieta heads into today off one of his worst starts of the season as the left-hand heavy Indians got to him for four runs. Following the game, Arrieta had said it was nothing more than missing a few spots. I look for him to bounce back today against a Twins lineup that ranks 23rd in MLB with a .677 OPS vs. righties. Some of Arrieta's success no doubt stems from a move from the AL East to the NL but he's really learned how to pitch over the last few seasons and has the numbers to back it up (82 IP, 74 hits, Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

06.13.2015     05:50 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Pelfrey) +110 at Texas (Lewis) O/U 9
Recommendation: Minnesota


Last week we got Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey as a short home underdog and he rewarded us with yet another solid outing. Pelfrey tossed 8 innings of shutout ball with a season-high seven strikeouts in a 2-0 win over Milwaukee. While we're not getting as juicy a price, Pelfrey continues to be discounted in the betting markets because of his inability to miss bats (34 Ks in 67 IP). The key though is that he's been able to offset it with a stellar 55% groundball rate which will come in handy pitching in the heat of Texas. Given the current betting marketplace, it's the guys who aren't sexy (low K-rate, so-so FIP, but know how to pitch) that provide some of the best value. Also note that Texas' lineup is better suited to face righties but Pelfrey has a very strong reverse split (.196 BA vs. lefties, .291 vs. righties). Unlike Pelfrey, I don't see much upside with Colby Lewis, especially pitching at home moving forward. Lewis sports a 4.42 ERA and 4.50 FIP despite being an extreme flyballer with an extremely fortunate 6.3% HR/FB rate. Meaning his home run rate (7 in 73.1 IP) is about to Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Texas Rangers OTTO Sports




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins

06.07.2015     06:53 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Fiers) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) +100 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


I've slowly started to accept some of Mike Fiers' success this season but don't feel as if it is sustainable and certainly don't think he warrants being a favorite in an American League park. Fiers has a lot to like: high K rate (10.7 per 9), solid FIP (3.45), and lots of deception which can make first looks difficult. But he'll take a step up in class today with the Twins a fairly capable offense. Keep an eye on the long ball today as well with warm temps and the wind blowing out to left. Fiers, of course, is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey meanwhile shows a dismal K rate (4.12), a so-so FIP (4.14), and a long track record of being a below average starter. But Pelfrey has figured some things out and really embraced the ground ball mantra which can be the elixir for pitchers who don't miss bats. He ranks 7th out of qualified starters (55.8% GB rate) and as a result has down an excellent job at keep the ball in the park with three home runs allowed including not one at Target Field. The Twins have without question overachieved to this point and were Read more



Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins OTTO Sports




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox

05.22.2015     11:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Hughes) +110 at Chicago (Samardzija) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


My clients and I cashed an underdog winner earlier this week with the Minnesota Twins and I’m more than willing to come right back and endorse them tonight. There is something to be said about momentum in baseball and the Minnesota Twins have it right now after winning 14 of their last 19 games. As for tonight’s two starters, I don’t see a whole lot of difference between Phil Hughes and Jeff Samardzija. Both have had ups and downs and battled inconsistency however Hughes is at least feeling some positive momentum having gone 7 innings while yielding only 2 runs on 5 hits against Tampa Bay his last time out. Hughes allowed just 3 runs in 6 innings in his prior start against the White Sox and his overall numbers when facing the current White Sox roster are solid as he’s allowed a collective .250 batting average. Hughes once again shows a sparkling 35-5 K-to-BB ratio. His biggest knock is the 10 home runs allowed in 51 IP but he should be aided by what expects to be cooler temps and a slight wind in front left field. On the flip side, the Chicago Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapping: Can the Twins sustain their success?

05.15.2015     09:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from FanGraphs on Minnesota's surprising start to the season. The Twins are 19-16 and on the surface, it's not that flukey of a record with their Pythagorean W-L record sitting at 18-17. One of the keys to their success -- an arguably unsustainable one -- is the ability to perform in high leverage situations. Basically, their "timing" -- or "clutch", whatever you want to call it -- has been really, really good.


If the Twins carried their current BaseRuns performance through the whole year, they’d finish with 72 expected wins, and a run differential of -87. The Twins’ full-season projection? It’s 73 expected wins, and a run differential of -75.



 

 




Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




MLB Gambling Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

04.30.2015     10:08 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago WS (Sale) -160 at Minnesota (May) O/U 7
Recommendation: Chicago


The Twins bullpen got rocked again yesterday, as Minnesota blew a four run lead at home against the Tigers.  This isn’t new or different for a bullpen that came into the season loaded with question marks; currently ranked in the bottom quartile of MLB in bullpen ERA.  And that’s bad news with Trevor May on the hill this evening.

May was knocked out of the game after getting hit by a line drive on his elbow in his last start.  While he’s been given the OK to get back on the mound today, May is not a pitcher who can afford to be at less than 100%.  We’re talking about a young hurler with a career ERA approaching 8.00 in six previous starts at Target Field.  And May is no innings eater; yet to record a single out past the sixth inning in his big league career, leaving plenty of room for another Twins bullpen implosion should we need it.

Chris Sale, on the other hand, is a legitimate ace.  He’s allowed a grand total of five runs in his three previous starts this season, including a dominating one run, five Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

04.28.2015     07:36 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit (Sanchez) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) +140 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has enjoyed some early season success with a 2.65 ERA, 61% groundball rate, and uptick in velocity through three starts. The only thing missing is the strikeouts (8 in 17 IP) but I can live with that so long as Pelfrey continues to pound the lower half of the strike zone. Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez will be making his fifth start as he owns a 5.96 ERA. His fastball velocity is a tad lower than last year and his HR per 9 is at a career high of just short of two thanks to an extremely high fly ball rate. The Twins should benefit from seeing him for the second time this year. If the Tigers can get to Sanchez, the Detroit bullpen has a combined ERA of 4.47, which ranks 26th in MLB. Also note that their top relief arm, Joakim Soria, has tossed in three straight days and is unlikely to be available this evening. Price is right for a play on the home underdog.




Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Drew Martin




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

04.22.2015     10:21 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Pelfrey) at Kansas City (Guthrie) -150 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


It’s not really that difficult to look at a game involving Minnesota’s Mike Pelfrey as the listed starter and immediately wanting to play the other side or “over” the total. Tonight is no exception as Pelfrey will take the hill opposing Kansas City which currently ranks as MLB’s #1 offense in batting average (.310) and on-base percentage (.373). The matchup doesn’t figure to be suited for Pelfrey who is now a pitch to contact starter (only 4 Ks in his 44 batters faced) while the Royals are the toughest team in the majors to strikeout (64; next closest are Mets and Cardinals at 82). Add in his three miserable performances against Kansas City in 2013 (the only three in his career) which saw a pair of four inning or less stints, a 9.49 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, plus a  whopping 20.4 pitches per inning and the indicators are there for strong Royals run production tonight. With KC righty starter Jeremy Guthrie off to a slow start this season (5.54 ERA, 4 HRs allowed in 13 innings) the potential for Minnesota to score runs in this contest is strong Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals Rob Veno




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Minnesota Twins

03.16.2015     01:11 PM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

After years of quality and consistent pitching, Minnesota's inability to produce on the mound has the organization in free-fall. There's talent on the way but the impact is still a ways off.

Minnesota Twins
2014 W-L:
70-92  
2014 O/U: 87-69-6
2014 Profits: -6.5
2015 O/U Wins: 70.5
2015 AL Central Odds: +2575
Projected Starting Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone
Key Departures: None
Key Additions: Ervin Santana

Handicapper’s Take: “The Twins have fallen from the ranks of competitive MLB franchises in recent years.  They improved to 70 wins last year after winning just 66 in 2013, 66 in 2012 and 63 in 2011.  This team hasn’t shown a profit for their supporters since the 2010 campaign; the last time they were competitive.  It’s very hard to make money betting on the very worst teams in baseball, and Paul Molitor’s squad certainly has Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

09.09.2014     01:24 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (May) at Cleveland (Bauer) -170 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


The betting markets stop concentrating on baseball as football season begins, offering savvy bettors a prime opportunity to ride some strong Under-the-Radar team trends like this one.  Minnesota has cashed eight straight Overs, 14-3 to the Over in their last 17, exactly the type of trend that nobody is paying attention to in September.   They’ve averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense during this span but their suspect pitching staff has been torched routinely, both the starters and the bullpen.

My clients and I cashed an Over bet the last time Trevor May was on the hill, a game that produced 15 combined runs against the White Sox.  May is an easy hurler to bet against. He has allowed 23 runs in 21.2 innings in five starts since his call-up from Triple-A.  He has recorded a grand total of one out past the fifth inning in those five starts and his advanced metric numbers show Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jun 25, 2016 05:10 AM.