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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

05.16.2014     08:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Volquez) at NY Yankees (Phelps) -130 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Yankees


It looked as if a new surrounding was going to be the elixir for Edison Volquez after a disastrous 2013. In his first four starts, Volquez posted a sharp 2.02 ERA but some of his success was no doubt fortunate. He wasn't missed many bats (14 Ks in 26 innings) and his BABIP was well below .250. Since then we've witnessed more of the old Volquez with a 9-8 K-to-BB ratio and 8.80 ERA over his last three starts – one of which came against the Toronto Blue Jays. He faces another American League team tonight in a ballpark that isn't an ideal fit for right-handed pitchers. The Yankees are far from potent offensively but I expect them to stack their lineup with left-handed bats tonight. Over the last two years Volquez has had a very difficult time keeping lefties in check. New York's David Phelps is starting out of necessity and I typically wouldn't be looking to support him unless the situation was Read more


Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates New York Yankees Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Yankees and Mets send two rookies to the bump

05.15.2014     12:03 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Yankees (Whitley) -110 at NY Mets (deGrom) O/U 7.5

Bettors will need to familiarize themselves with New York's two rookie starters for tonight's game at Citi Field. For the Yankees, right-hander Chase Whitley will make his MLB debut after serving primarily as a reliever in the minor leagues. He has however started six games at the Triple-A level this season with a 2.39 ERA and 32-7 K-to-BB ratio. Whitley was originally a 15th round draft pick in 2010. For the Mets, righty Jacob deGrom will also be making his MLB debut. The former 9th round pick has posted a 3.87 ERA and 92-34 K-to-BB ratio in 114 innings of work at Triple-A the last two seasons. According to Baseball America he was the Mets' no. 10 prospect heading into the season. Oddsmakers and the betting markets seems indecisive about the side with the game currently lined close to a pick 'em. The total Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees New York Mets




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers

05.10.2014     07:16 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Yankees (Sabathia) +125 at Milwaukee (Lohse) O/U 8
Recommendation: New York


We appear to be getting a fair amount of value with CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees tonight in Milwaukee. It's well documented that CC's velocity is down and he isn't the pitcher he was three years ago however his decline has been well accounted for in the betting markets. This year's raw numbers don't look good but Sabathia has pitched significantly better than his 5.75 ERA. His strikeout rate is 9.74 per 9 innings and his xFIP is among the league leaders at 2.89. He'll definitely benefit from facing a National League lineup that is without a power bat in Ryan Braun. Hard to say much bad about Kyle Lohse who continues to thrive in the National League. Some of his numbers lean towards fortunate and unsustainable – and he's typically weaker against left-handed bats which the Yankees have plenty of. Off a poor outing and returning to his old stomping grounds I think Sabathia is sitting on a Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Sabathia not a bad bet so long as price is right

05.06.2014     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent article on CC Sabathia courtesy of FanGraphs. Sabathia's decline in velocity has been well documented, particularly in the betting markets. But he appears to be somewhat reinventing his repertoire. Sabathia is throwing more sinkers and thus getting more groundballs. Unfortunately, due in large part to Derek Jeter's lack of range, his BABIP is .361. Outside of Sabathia's 5.75 ERA the numbers suggest he hasn't pitched that bad this season. His strikeout rate is a career-best 9.74 (probably unsustainable) and his xFIP is 2.93 (16th in MLB among qualified starters). He's also been very tough against lefties (.130 BA against, .273 SLG). The bottom line when betting Sabathia is value. He should be priced as nothing more than a slightly above average lefty. Note that of Sabathia's seven starts, he's 0-3 -4.50 units as a favorite. As an underdog a significantly better return: 3-1 +2.75 units.



Tags: MLB New York Yankees




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

04.23.2014     10:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Yankees (Pineda) at Boston (Lackey) -120 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


The Red Sox bullpen is completely spent.  Boston hasn’t had a day off since last Monday.  They’ve gotten very short stints from each of their last two starters, needing eleven innings of bullpen work over the last two games alone. Manager John Farrell: “This turn through the rotation (our starting pitching has) been less than we've shown in the past. It's been less than expected. For us to play with consistency, we need our starting rotation to lead us through that. Right now we're not getting that.” Boston’s bullpen issues are likely to be on full display tonight with John Lackey taking the hill for the Red Sox.  The Yankees have owned Lackey – he’s got a 6.26 ERA against them in six starts since 2011.  Lackey certainly isn’t in good form, battered for 20 hits and 12 earned runs in just eleven innings of work over his last two outings.  And the Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees Boston Red Sox Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Alert: Money flowing in on Baltimore Orioles

04.08.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
Baltimore (Chen) at NY Yankees (Nova) -120 O/U 8.5

Huge market move on this afternoon's Baltimore-New York game. The Yankees opened around -145 but have since been bet down to as low at -115. In seven career starts WY Chen has an ERA of 5.58 vs. New York. In three starts at Yankee Stadium his ERA is 4.86. Opposing starter Ivan Nova is 5-2 with a 4.46 ERA all-time vs. the Orioles.

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Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees




MLB Handicapping: New York's Tanaka impresses in first start

04.07.2014     12:57 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you missed his first start, here's a good breakdown of New York's Mashairo Tanaka courtesy of FanGraphs. Tanaka went seven innings, allowed two earned runs and fanned eight en route to a 7-3 win at Toronto.



Tags: MLB New York Yankees




MLB Handicapping: New York's Sabathia to rely on craftiness

04.01.2014     06:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Article from last week that tries to downplay CC Sabathia's continued lack of velocity. He pitched well during spring training but one opposing scout had him throwing 86-88 mph. And rumor has it he's trying to incorporate a cutter – the ultimate sign that the fastball is no longer there. Sabathia finished 2013 with a career-worst 4.78 ERA. He gets the nod tonight at Houston.


"The quality of his games doesn't necessarily correlate with how hard he's throwing that day,'' Martin said. "He's been a pitcher with power, he's always been a pitcher. He's never relied solely on overpowering people. He's always pitched, and that's why he's been one of the best of the best.''

"I don't think there's any doubt he's going to get back to where he needs to be, regardless of the velocity,'' said Chris Stewart, who caught Sabathia a combined 33 times in 2012 and 2013. "He's smart enough, he works hard enough to get the job done.''





Tags: MLB New York Yankees Houston Astros




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Oakland A's

06.12.2013     10:10 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Yankees (Hughes) +112 at Oakland (Straily) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: New York


Everyone who’s involved in the daily MLB handicapping grind knows how wildly inconsistent Phil Hughes’ starts can be. His stuff has always been very good and in my opinion when he has a bad outing it’s because of poor location inside the strike zone. Tonight there are overwhelming situational numbers that suggest he’ll be successful so I’ll go to the well and back him for a second straight start. In his most recent performance, Hughes came through with seven innings of three hit ball and a win at Seattle. The road has been kind to the RH lately as his last three away appearances have resulted in quality starts. In those games, Hughes threw 19 innings allowing 12 hits and three earned runs for a 1.35 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .169 BAA. He’s had tremendous success in this park as evidenced by his 1.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP and in 84 plate appearances against him, this A’s roster Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees Oakland A's Rob Veno




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

06.06.2013     10:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Yankees (Hughes) -120 at Seattle (Harang) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


The Yankees lineup has come back to life since Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis have found their offensive rhythm after extended stints on the DL.  Youkilis notched his first extra base hit since April yesterday, while Teixeira hammered a pair of homers drove in seven runs in New York’s just concluded three-game set against Cleveland.

That’s bad news for Mariners starter Aaron Harang; struggling with the gopher ball again this year.  Harang is 7-1 to the Over in his eight previous starts, and he’s failed to record a single out past the fifth inning in half of those games.  The Mariners bullpen behind him is certainly not in great shape today following yesterday’s brutal 16 inning loss to Chicago.  Don’t be shocked if the Yankees approach this total all by themselves.

Seattle will never be confused with a great offensive team, but Phil Hughes Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees Seattle Mariners Teddy Covers



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