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MLB Betting Notes: Cashner and Bauer square off at Chase Field
07.03.2012 08:34 AM
Printer Friendly
San Diego
(Cashner) at
Arizona
(Bauer) -145 O/U 9
Preview from
FanGraphs
on tonight's San Diego-Arizona matchup featuring the touted arms of Andrew Cashner and Trevor Bauer. In his first start since being recalled, Casher allowed two hits, two runs and fanned nine in 6.1 innings at Houston. Bauer had a little tougher time, lasting only four innings and allowing two runs at Atlanta.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
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MLB Handicapping: Understanding the cutter
07.03.2012 07:34 AM
Printer Friendly
The cutter has become the new "it" pitch in baseball over the last few years. But while it has the ability to revitalize a career, it also seems to cause an eventual drop in velocity. Here's an
interview
with pitching coaches Roger McDowell and Randy St. Claire about the popular offering.
St. Claire: “For me, a cutter is a fastball that’s moving. It runs in on that left-handed hitter’s hands. There is velocity to it, and there is no spin to the ball that you can pick up. A slider has spin and usually a tight dot to it. It’s usually when you throw a poor slider that it gets hit. On a cutter, the hitter does not pick up the spin on the ball. At the last, just before contact, the ball is sliding. For a left-hander it’s sliding to the right, and for a right-hander it’s sliding to the left. It’s very short break, too. A cutter is a contact pitch that makes them mis-hit the ball.”
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MLB Betting Notes: Verlander starting to find groove with change-up
07.02.2012 01:34 PM
Printer Friendly
We're nitpicking a little but over the last month, Detroit's Justin Verlander – by his standards – has been uncharacteristically hittable. Now being able to maintain a 2.15 ERA in the American League is extremely tough and every pitcher goes through a stale period or two during the course of a full season. That appears to be the case with Verlander who over his last seven starts has a 3.54 ERA. His last outing against Tampa was the worst of the bunch in which he allowed four earned runs in six innings. He did however take away something positive from the outing; the
rediscovery of his change-up
.
"My changeup has been absent for a couple months now," he said. "It was nice to get a good feel for that again with good depth. I've been able to throw it for strikes, but it hasn't had much action on it. Tonight was better, so that's a positive that I'm looking forward to working with down the road."
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MLB Free Prop Bet: Home Runs vs. Away Runs
07.02.2012 01:10 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Home Runs -180 vs. Away Runs
Recommendation: Home Runs
I don't normally play the Home Runs vs. Away Runs prop play in part because every time I do, I'll be well on my way to victory and there will inevitably be a rain out. That being said, I did take a shot tonight supporting the home side laying the moderate price (-177 @ Pinnacle). I see a lot of games with home teams having a distinct starting pitching advantage. In the National League, Pittsburgh (McDonald), Atlanta (Hanson), Milwaukee (Greinke), and St. Louis (Lohse) are all -160 favorites or more. I especially like that grouping because I see two pitchers on the road who are on my "play against" list in Chicago's Jeff Samardzija and Miami's Carlos Zambrano. In the AL, Ricky Romero has struggled but the Jays face a weak arm in KC’s Everett Teaford. Doug Fister is a big favorite over gas can Liam Hendriks for Minnesota. Add two untrustable veterans in Freddy Garcia and Dice-K and the home sides have plenty of opportunity to put up runs in bunches. I don't see one "mismatch" away favorite on the card. Jered Weaver is as close as you are going to get but
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Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling News: Toronto's Romero struggles to find strike zone
07.02.2012 08:20 AM
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Kansas City
(Teaford) at
Toronto
(Romero) -155 O/U 9.5
Toronto has a lot of pitching issues these days; one of which from an unlikely source if you go by last year's numbers. Ricky Romero has been a train wreck this season (4.94 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) and as
FanGraphs
points out, his biggest problem has been walks. Romero has issued 52 free passes in 98.1 innings whereas last season he walked only 80 batters in 225 innings.
The obvious difference comes in his walk rate, and even in today’s big inning, the walks were a problem. Romero walked 10.3% in his rookie season, then he walked 9.3% in his decent followup, and 8.7% in his breakout season last year. Now his walk rate is at a career-worst 11.3%.
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MLB
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
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MLB Betting Update: Clearly not right, Cubs give Samardzija another start
07.02.2012 08:03 AM
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UPDATE
Chicago Cubs
(Samardzija) at
Atlanta
(Hanson) -190 O/U 8
For whatever reason, the Chicago Cubs will continue to roll the dice with Jeff Samardzija who is clearly wearing down in his first season as a full-time MLB starter. Samardzija has already matched last year's inning total and is just over 50 away from hitting his professional career high (141.2 in 2007). In the span of just over a month, Samardzija's ERA has jumped from 3.00 to 5.05. His stat line from his last four starts: 18.1 IP, 25 ER, 14 Ks, 10 BBs, 4 HRs, 12.27 ERA, 1.033 OPS. And if that weren't bad enough,
manager Dale Sveum
was quoted as saying,
“I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned a little bit with the numbers and execution
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Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
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Sunday MLB Betting Free Play: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
07.01.2012 07:31 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Boston
(Doubront) -130 at
Seattle
(Vargas) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
The lack of offense in Safeco Field has been a topic of discussion inside the sabermetric community this week as pitchers have had more than the normal success here this season. Seattle has now gone under the total in eight consecutive games and Manager Eric Wedge had a 20+ minute meeting with his club prior to batting practice yesterday to see if he could get the offense jump started. Their three runs, .231 game batting average and .590 game OPS aren’t exactly what the skipper had in mind but today looks like a real opportunity for Mariners run production to break through. Boston starter Felix Doubront has not been very good over his last four games allowing a whopping 57 total bases in the 23 inning span. The lefty has a 1.52 WHIP and 6.65 ERA in those contests with location being an admitted problem in his last start. Safeco as mentioned above has been a park that among other things eats up fly balls but
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Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
Rob Veno
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MLB Betting News: Kansas City's Sanchez struggling with all facets of the game
06.30.2012 08:21 AM
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Kansas City
(Sanchez) at
Minnesota
(Diamond) -140 O/U 9.5
If you want to get inside the head of Kansas City's Jonathan Sanchez,
here is your chance
. He opens up about his recent struggles and unfortunately, makes it tough for bettors to buy in to some sort of turnaround in the near future.
“It's just not working for me right now,” he said. “It's a slump. That's what it is. A slump. Everyone goes through it.
“I'm pitching the same. It's just not working.”
“I don't look at the speed,” Sanchez said, shaking his head. “Speed doesn't get guys out.
“It's about luck. There's been some bad luck. I don't think speed is the problem right now.”
“I never think about that,” he said. “Going to
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Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
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MLB Gambling Notes: Boston's Josh Beckett back after shoulder issues
06.30.2012 08:12 AM
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Boston
(Beckett) -140 at
Seattle
(Ramirez) O/U 7.5
Hey look!
Josh Beckett is back
and, what? He's a -140 road favorite? That doesn't seem right, especially for a guy who had two starts skipped due to a weakened right shoulder. Bobby V. seems to think he’ll be alright. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
“If he’s healthy, I expect a good performance, and it seems like he’s very healthy,” Sox manager Bobby Valentine said. “Has good spirits. Josh is a great pitcher. I expect him to go out there and give us a good outing.”
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Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
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MLB Betting Notes: Safeco Field playing even more pitcher-friendly in 2012
06.29.2012 02:05 PM
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An informative (yet very exhausting) breakdown of the lack of offensive production at Seattle's Safeco Field this season courtesy of
FanGraphs
. Bettors were already aware of its pitcher-friendly tendencies but check out these numbers:
Mariners batters at home: 5.3% doubles, 0.4% triples, 2.2% home runs
Mariners batters on road: 6.5% doubles, 0.6% triples, 4.1% home runs
Mariners opponents at home: 4.0% doubles, 0.4% triples, 2.9% home runs
Mariners opponents on road: 7.0% doubles, 0.6% triples, 5.5% home runs
Totals at Safeco heading into today were 15-20 O/U.
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Seattle Mariners
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