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Free MLB Betting Pick: Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
05.13.2012 05:16 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Washington
(Jackson) +115 at
Cincinnati
(Arroyo) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Washington
Since taking two out of three against the Marlins in their first series of the season, the Reds have played only four series against opponents with winning records. They’ve lost all four series. In fact, after last night’s home loss to the Nats, Dusty Baker’s squad is on a 3-9 run against above .500 foes. Their previous six series have all come against sub-.500 teams, going 11-6 in those games while allowing the betting markets to embrace Cinci as a team finally living up to their potential. I’m just not buying that argument, or the concept of Cincinnati as the favorite in this ballgame.
The Nationals held an ‘air out the laundry’ team meeting following their three game skid earlier in the week, and they’ve responded with back-2-back-2-back road wins. Washington starter Edwin Jackson threw a complete game two
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MLB
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
Teddy Covers
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Free MLB Handicapper Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
05.11.2012 11:48 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Toronto
(Drabek) -135 at
Minnesota
(Blackburn) O/U 9
Recommendation: Toronto
The Minnesota Twins have picked up right where they left off in 2011 – an absolute bottom feeder. Ron Gardenhire’s team went 13-43 down the stretch last year, and they are 8-23 so far this season, playing .241 baseball for the last three and half months of regular season action. This team has virtually no homefield edge at Target Field. Their lineup is anemic on a good day; dead last in the AL in runs scored. That lineup is ice cold right now, held to three runs or less in nine of their last ten ballgames. Minnesota’s bullpen is mediocre at best. Today’s starter, struggling Nick Blackburn, has guided the team to an 0-5 record in his five previous starts this season, and his 6.84 ERA and .312 batting average against are not mirages!
The Blue Jays have a long track record of struggles against their top notch AL East foes combined
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Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
Teddy Covers
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
05.09.2012 10:42 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Texas
(Lewis) -120 at
Baltimore
(Chen) O/U 9
Recommendation: Under
Bettors spent all kinds of time breaking down starting pitching matchups. We spend hours looking at how opposing lineups match up against these starters. But when it comes to valuing bullpens correctly, bettors tend to come up short. That gives us a prime opportunity to step in with an UNDER bet this evening as the Rangers and Orioles battle in Baltimore.
Both starters here are absolutely trustworthy. Baltimore’s Wei-Yin Chen has lived up to all expectations, holding opposing batters to a combined total of nine earned runs in his first five major league starts. He’s already faced some truly potent lineups (the Yankees and Red Sox, for example), coming away with solid performances. He’s got a 2.13 ERA at Camden Yards; a “bet on” hurler right now.
The Rangers Colby Lewis has been every bit as good as Chen, holding foes to a combined total of seven earned runs in his first
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MLB Handicapper News and Notes: Baltimore Orioles on the rise
05.07.2012 11:49 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
The first month of the baseball season has come and gone, and there is no shortage of interesting stories to discuss. This week, I’ll break down the two biggest surprise teams in early season play (one positive and one negative), but this article has got to start with some discussion of the single biggest prevailing trend in all of baseball – the lack of run production in both leagues.
Hitting has declined markedly in recent years. In 2008 the AL hit a composite .268, while the NL, without the DH, hit at a .260 clip. Here in 2012, as of Monday, May 7th, the AL composite average has dropped to .248, the NL down to .249. During that same span, ERAs have dropped nearly a quarter of a run in the AL and a remarkable 3/4 of a run in the NL. 17 major league teams are currently hitting under .250 and twelve major league teams have posted ERAs under 3.50. The last time we saw MLB teams combine to hit less than .250 for a full season was back in 1972 – before the DH was introduced into the American League; a year where only one AL team (Kansas City) hit better than .250 for the full season.
Another way to gauge the relative success that pitchers have
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Free MLB Handicapping Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
05.04.2012 01:07 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Toronto
(Alvarez) +115 at
LA Angels
O/U 8
Recommendation: Toronto
Erwin Santana is in quite a rut these days. The Angels are 0-5 in his five starts, picking up right where they left off last year when the Halos closed out the season losing each of Santana’s last four starts. And it’s not like Santana is getting outdueled on a nightly basis. His spent September struggling with his control, and he spent April getting lit up to the tune of a 6.16 ERA. During LA’s 0-9 run with Santana on the hill, they’ve been favored seven times, dropping games to weaker foes like the Mariners, A’s and Royals.
While the Angels have been the single worst team in all of baseball from a ‘money earned or money lost’ perspective so far this season (down a whopping -12.4 units through their first 26 games), the Blue Jays have been consistent moneymakers for their supporters so far in 2012. Toronto has proven their mettle on the
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
05.02.2012 10:01 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Baltimore
(Arrieta) at
NY Yankees
(Nova) -170 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over
Baltimore’s lineup is suddenly surging, pounding out 23 runs in their last four games. The Orioles hit Ivan Nova hard, notching ten hits against him when they faced him last month. Nova has suffered from a reverse home/road dichotomy, with a career ERA more than a full run higher when pitching in the Bronx. He was lit up by the Tigers in his last outing: 14 baserunners and six earned runs in just 5.1 innings of work. There’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatic improvement here, and Joe Girardi’s bullpen behind him is not in great shape following yesterday’s early exit from Phil Hughes.
Nova has a strong winning record (20-6) throughout his tenure as a Yankee for one reason and one reason only – loads of run support. The numbers don’t lie: in Nova’s last 20 starts dating back to last year, the Bronx Bombers have lived up to
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MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets at Houston Astros
05.01.2012 10:54 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
NY Mets
(Niese) -130 at
Houston
(Happ) O/U 8
Recommendation: New York
Houston took Game 1 of this series last night, turning five hits and two walks into four runs thanks to some solid clutch hitting. Don’t expect an Astros lineup that has produced three runs or less in half of their ten home games so far this season to have much success tonight against under-rated Mets hurler Jonathan Niese. The Astros are just 1-4 against lefties in five tries in 2012, hitting just .227 as a team against southpaws.
Niese has thrown four consecutive quality starts to open up the new campaign. He dominated the Astros on his last visit to Houston, throwing seven innings of one run ball. It was the exact same story in his previous start here at Minute Maid Park: seven innings of one run ball. The Mets were huge profit makers on the highway last year, earning an MLB best 17.6 units of profit for their 81 road games. And when we look at the profitability
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MLB Gambling Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
04.24.2012 11:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Toronto
(Alvarez) -115 at
Baltimore
(Hunter) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
The Orioles and Blue Jays played a three-game set in Toronto that produced at least ten combined runs in all three games, cashing Over bets each time. This is nothing new or different when these two teams meet – offensive production is the norm, not the exception, in a series that has cashed only one Under bet in the last ten meetings.
Neither starter is poised to slow the offensive onslaught tonight. Toronto’s Henderson Alvarez got lit up by the Rays in his last outing, and Baltimore scored three runs against him earlier this season, primed for even more success tonight in a ‘second look’ situation. Baltimore’s Tommy Hunter has struggled with the gopher ball repeatedly already this season. He gave up four dingers to the Blue Jays when he faced them less than two weeks ago and two more to the White Sox in his last start, an ugly eight run, 5.2 inning
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
04.17.2012 11:51 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Baltimore (Chen) +115 at Chicago (Danks) O/U 8
Recommendation: Baltimore
John Danks is a notoriously slow starter, with a history of miserable early season results. The numbers don’t lie. Last year, Chicago went 1-10 in Danks’ first 11 trips to the hill, and he had an ERA above 5.00 heading into June. His career splits show a 16-25 record for the first two months of the season, compared to seven games over .500 from June 1st onwards. He struggled in both starts against this Orioles lineup last year: ten runs and 15 hits allowed in just 12.1 innings of work. The White Sox bullpen behind him isn’t fresh, after short stints from Phil Humber and Chris Sale over the past two days. And Chicago’s lineup isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats, ranked 12th among 14 American League teams in runs scored this year while hitting just .237 as a team. While Chicago has lost two straight following its surprisingly hot start – coming back to earth – the Orioles remain alone in first place in the best division in baseball. They are in excellent current form,
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MLB Betting Preview: Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
04.13.2012 10:49 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Cincinnati
(Arroyo) at
Washington
(Zimmermann) -140 O/U 7
Recommendation: Washington
Washington’s momentum – taking two out of three in Chicago to open the season, then taking two out of three against the Mets prior to last night’s win over Cinci – is very real. The Nationals are legitimate contenders; something they haven’t been at any point since the franchise left Montreal for Washington, DC. The Nats refuse-to-lose attitude in early season play has been particularly impressive. They’ve rallied from behind to win twice, and won twice (including yesterday’s affair) – on their final at-bat.
Cincinnati is on the other end of the positive momentum spectrum, dropping below .500 with yesterday’s defeat. The Reds offense isn’t clicking at all right now, producing only eight runs in their last four games. Starter Bronson Arroyo was lit up by the ice cold Marlins lineup in his debut last
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