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Saturday MLB Free Betting Pick: San Diego Padres at New York Mets
05.26.2012 07:40 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Diego
(Richard) at
NY Mets
-145 (Santana) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under
Let's get our day started with a free play winner in the totals market. Yesterday we talked about New York's Dillon Gee as someone who had pitched better than his ERA suggested. He delivered the goods with a 7 IP, 1 ER performance. I think the same can be said for San Diego's Clayton Richard who had a few hiccups early in the season at hitter-friendly Coors Field (8 ERs) and Citizens Bank (5 ERs). His command has improved dramatically with just six walks over his last five starts (11 his first four starts). He's always been a guy who in a neutral/spacious park can give you a quality start. Johan Santana has been a pleasant surprise this season with 53 Ks and 45 hits allowed in 50 innings. At home against a soft-hitting Padres lineup, he's in a good spot to succeed. Kind of odd that in this day in age we have two solid pitchers in a pitcher friendly stadium facing two mediocre offenses yet the total is
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San Diego Padres
New York Mets
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: San Diego Padres at New York Mets
05.25.2012 07:23 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Diego
(Bass) at
NY Mets
(Gee) -120 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
Dillon Gee is an interesting case study. His ERA is currently a full run higher than last season's yet some of the numbers indicate that he is actually pitching better. His strikeout rate is up from 6.39 per 9 innings to 7.79 and his walk rate is down from 3.98 to 2.36. His BABIP of .331 and left on base pct. of 65.4% suggests he's been a bit unlucky. I'm not trying to convince the world this guy is a sleeping giant but when looking at tonight's matchup at home against San Diego, I feel confident Gee is in a position to succeed. San Diego's Anthony Bass doesn't garner a lot of attention but according to some of the numbers I use in my handicap of pitchers, he's currently one of the better starters in baseball. Don't think we'll see a 7.5 on this game, but under 7 at even money is worth a bet.
Lange 20* AL Central Game of the Year [Top
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San Diego Padres
New York Mets
Andrew Lange
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
05.22.2012 07:51 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
LA Dodgers
(Harang) at
Arizona
(Cahill) -140 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
Everyone is pretty much aware that LA's Aaron Harang is a fly ball pitcher. And that isn't a bad thing to be when pitching at Dodgers Stadium, AT&T Park and Petco. But in hitter-friendly environments, Harang has and will continue to struggle. His career numbers at Chase Field look strong: 4 starts, 1.38 ERA, 1 HR allowed. But all four outings had the roof closed. Tonight it is expected to be open and that puts Harang in a difficult spot. When on, Trevor Cahill is a really strong groundball pitcher but he's been very inconsistent this season and hasn't missed a lot of bats with 31 strikeouts (and 21 walks) in 49.1 innings. Keep in mind two of his three starts at Chase Field were with the rooof closed. The one that wasn't he gave up four earned runs and a season-high 10 fly balls. Don't tell the Dodgers Matt Kemp's injury is supposed to bog the offense down. LA has scored 8, 6, 6, 6, and 6 runs its last five
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MLB Handicapping: Colorado Rockies have bottomed out
05.22.2012 07:21 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
In the month of May alone, the Colorado Rockies are 4-15. It only adds to what has taken place with this organization since 2010's late season collapse that saw them lose 13 of 14 to close out the regular season. Since that time, Colorado has quietly been one of the worst teams in baseball with a record of 89-129, -59 units. Pitching has played a big role in the organization's decline. In early 2011, we
posted a blog
about how the Rockies had it right by trying to develop young arms with good fastballs that produce groundballs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa. Juan Nicasio, Jason Hammel, and Jhoulys Chacin all showed promise. But only Nicasio is currently contributing to the team. They traded Jimenez to Cleveland – a move that for now looks smart. The Hammel for Guthrie trade hasn't worked out with Hammel throwing well for Baltimore and Guthrie (5.55 ERA) spending much of his time being injured or ineffective. Then you have De La Rosa and Chacin on the shelf due to injuries. Rookie
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MLB Betting Notes: Holy cow! The Houston Astros are playing decent baseball
05.18.2012 02:00 PM
Andrew Lange
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I've stated a few times on the Sportsmemo Podcast that the Houston Astros (17-21) have from a statistical standpoint underachieved this season. Hard to believe consider few if any would have predicted that in mid-May they'd be only four games under .500 and in fourth place in the National League Central. The Astros rank fifth in the NL in run differential (+0.3). That equates to a Pythagorean W-L record of 20-18. And it isn't like they caught a three-week wave of easy scheduling. Twenty-seven of their 38 games have come against teams above .500. And nearly 50% of their games (18) were against the National East – a division in which everyone currently has a winning record and all but the Mets have a positive run differential. On the flip side, the Astros have played just six games vs. the NL West – a division with only one winning record (Los Angeles) and four of five teams with negative run differentials. What does this all mean? I'm not sure, especially with such a small sample size. And despite overachieving (which for Houston is mediocrity) they are barely profitable on the season (+1.25 units) so I’d refrain from a “bet on blindly” philosophy. It
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Free MLB Betting Pick: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
05.17.2012 12:04 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
NY Yankees
(Hughes) -115 at
Toronto
(Hutchison) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: New York
Phil Hughes' shortcoming have been so heavily publicized that despite playing for the Yankees, there would inevitably some betting value on him if and when things turned around. My enthusiasm for him remains tepid but there have been positives. On the season, Hughes has decent numbers (40 hits allowed in 36 innings with 34 strikeouts and only nine walks). The problem has been staying away from the home run ball (9). The velocity has been there and so long as he believes in his stuff (he should after back-to-back quality starts) Hughes has some upside. For the Blue Jays, rookie Drew Hutchison hasn’t shown much (5.53 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). He has struggled with his command, fallen behind in a lot of counts and been forced to throw fastballs 77% of the time. The Yankees are aging, but they still work counts, take walks, and tend to feast of mediocre pitching. Looks like a decent spot for a play on the small
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MLB Gambling Notes: Numbers suggest Cleveland has been fortunate
05.16.2012 07:23 AM
Andrew Lange
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On May 23 of last year, the Cleveland Indians had a seven game lead (30-15) in the American League Central but finished 15 games out. Most bettors knew some sort of decline was inevitable but perhaps not that dramatic. This year's start (20-16) is a little more realistic but a closer look shows that the Tribe may be once again overachieving.
The first thing that stands out is a -0.3 run differential. That equates to a pythWL of 17-19. Next is the schedule Cleveland has played. Of their 36 games, 27 came against team below .500 while only nine were against teams above .500. Those marks far and away "lead" the American League. Not surprising, the Indians have played the fewest games (7) of any AL team against the East Division. Note that they are 2-5 in those contests. Also of note is the fact that Cleveland is an amazing 8-1 in one-run games. Good teams often finish above .500 in one-run games but an 89% is a rate simply cannot be maintained.
Lastly, let's look at Cleveland's schedule the remainder of the season. The American League Central is pretty watered down at this point though Detroit and Kansas City have yet to play their best baseball. The
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
05.16.2012 07:16 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cincinnati
(Leake) at
NY Mets
(Santana)
Recommendation: New York -135 5-inning
It doesn't appear that Cincinnati's Mike Leake (7.11 ERA) is fooling anyone these days. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and it all takes place with velocity that hoovers around the high-80s. The only thing separating him from a batting practice pitcher is a decent curveball. He's potentially pitching for his job today and in a favorable ballpark but I still don't trust him. After missing all of 2011, Johan Santana has bounced back with strong numbers across the board. His velocity is down a tick but he's gotten 12 or more swinging strikes in five of seven starts which suggest his stuff is still effective. In the matchup of Leake vs. Santana, Santana has the edge and is worth a play on the 5-inning line at this price.
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
05.03.2012 12:48 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland
(Masterson) at
Chicago WS
(Danks) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Justin Masterson made a few adjustments prior to his last start and got better results in allowing only two runs in 8.1 innings – albeit against the soft hitting Angels. But his velocity remains down and his command is very erratic. In his last three outings, Masterson has walked 15 batters. This after walking less than two per start last season. Like Masterson, John Danks hasn't been "right" at all this season and a lack of command has been the main culprit. Danks walked only 46 batters last season and has already issued 15 in five starts including four in each of his last two outings. As a result, he's allowed three or more runs in every outing. These struggles were apparent from both pitchers in an early season meeting where the duo combined for seven earned runs, 15 hits, six walks and five strikeouts with neither pitcher lasting past the sixth inning. Unseasonably warm weather with gusty
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
05.01.2012 06:48 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Philadelphia
(Hamels) at
Atlanta
(Beachy) -125 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Under
Last season, Atlanta's offense struggled mightedly against left-handed pitching and those numbers are starting to show up again (.238 vs. LH starters) this season despite the fact that they have yet to face a premium southpaw arm. And when it comes to "premium" in the National League names like Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and tonight's opponent, Cole Hamels, come to mind. Hamels is once again dialed in this season with a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. For Atlanta, Brandon Beachy will look to maintain his stellar start to the season (1.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Obviously those numbers can't be maintained, but his talent is hardly a fluke after posting 169 strikeouts in 141.2 innings last season. He'll face a Philadelphia offense that has really struggled to produce runs. They've picked it up of late (4.71 runs per game last 7 games) but they certainly benefited from facing some weak starting pitchers (Josh
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