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MLB Betting Alert: Angel Hernandez behind the plate for Livan Hernandez start
07.27.2011 06:37 AM
Printer Friendly
There have been a good number of
recent studies
on whether or not there is a racial bias with pitchers and umpires. The results seemed a bit inconclusive for our tastes though still something to keep an eye on. Back in April we pointed out the relationship between
Cuban born Angel Hernandez
and some of the more prominent Cuban pitchers. One of those is obviously Livan Hernandez who has fared well in comparison to his career numbers (see below) with Angel behind the plate. Bias or not, Livan is always susceptible to getting smacked around (5.82 ERA in three starts vs. Florida this season) but the history between these two is something to consider for tonight's game.
Livan's career numbers:
4.37 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.84 K-to-BB ratio
Livan's career numbers w/ Angel:
3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.24 K-to-BB ratio (65.1, 9 starts)
As a side note, Florida starter Javier Vazquez, who is from Puerto Rico, doesn't show much difference with Angel behind the plate:
Vazquez's career numbers:
4.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.27 K-to-BB ratio
Vazquez's career numbers w/ Angel:
4.01 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.19 K-to-BB ratio (51.2 IP, 8 starts)
Tags:
MLB
Washington Nationals
Livan Hernandez
Florida Marlins
Javier Vazquez
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MLB Handicapping: Karstens continues to defy baseball logic
07.26.2011 11:38 AM
Printer Friendly
Interesting article from the
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
on Jeff Karstens' season. Some of his numbers are amazing considering he doesn't have overpowering stuff and prior to this year was nothing more than a fringe MLB arm. Stranding runners at an unbelievably high rate (86.6%), low walks (1.49 per 9 IP) and low BAbip (.243) are just a couple of reasons why he’s putting up these stats (and profits +5.15 units). Karstens is a +165 road underdog at Atlanta tonight.
Tags:
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeff Karstens
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
07.26.2011 11:23 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Chicago (Dempster) at Milwaukee (Narveson) -143 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
To say that Ryan Dempster has owned this Brewers lineup is something of an understatement. Dempster threw seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball against Milwaukee when he faced them last month, cashing a 1-0 decision for the Cubs. He faced the Brewers five times last year. He shut them down five times, going 4-0 in those starts with a 2.23 ERA. His career numbers at Miller Park mirror those types of results: 84 IP, 2.35 ERA, 213 BAA. That’s certainly not a short sample size! Facing a Brewers lineup that produced 1, 2, 4, 0 and 2 runs in regulation of their last five games (all Unders), there’s no reason to expect anything but another strong showing from Dempster tonight!
It’s a similar story for Chris Narveson, who matches up extremely well against a Cubs lineup that simply can’t hit lefties. Chicago, as a team, is batting .189 against southpaws since
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Chicago Cubs
Ryan Dempster
Milwaukee Brewers
Chris Narveson
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Notes: A closer look at Seattle's losing streak
07.26.2011 07:21 AM
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Some numbers to consider with Seattle's 16-game losing streak...
Pitching: During 0-16 stretch, the team's ERA is 6.01 with 23 home runs allowed. In their previous 86 games, they posted a 3.12 ERA with 54 home runs allowed.
Hitting: During 0-16 stretch, the team is averaging: 2.69 runs per game, .227 BA, .266 OBP, .588 OPS, 124 strikeouts, 29 walks.
Following a July 5th win over Oakland, the Mariners were 43-43.
Following their series against New York, 12 of Seattle's final 18 series are against team currently at or above .500.
Seattle has been an underdog in all 16 games.
Only two games were decided by one run. The average margin of victory for opponents is 3.44 runs.
Longest Losing Streaks in MLB History (since World Series was in play 1903)
23 - Philadelphia (NL), 1961
21 - Baltimore (AL), 1988
20 - Boston (AL), 1906
20 - Philadelphia (AL), 1916
20 - Philadelphia (AL), 1943
20 - Montreal (NL), 1969
19 - Kansas City (AL),
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Seattle Mariners
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MLB Betting Notes: Four teams laying big prices on Monday's card
07.25.2011 07:23 AM
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A handful of big price tags for Monday's card with four teams laying -200 or more. According to the data base, teams at -200 or more are 43-18 (+6.15) on the season (27-28-5 O/U). Teams at -225 or more are 16-1 and -250 or more 3-0. Thirty of the 43 wins came by two runs or more.
Current Prices courtesy of 5Dimes
San Diego (Harang) at Philadelphia (Lee) -245
Houston (Happ) at St. Louis (McCellan) -200
Seattle (Vargas) at New York (Garcia) -215
Kansas City (Davis) at Boston (Lester) -285
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at New York Yankees
07.22.2011 01:47 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Oakland (Cahill) at New York (Hughes)
Recommendation: New York R/L -1.5 +110
The Yankees have enjoyed ‘mismatch’ type results in every recent meeting with Oakland. In three games at the Coliseum earlier in the year, the Bronx bombers won by a combined score of 19-5, cashing three run-line tickets in the process. New York and Oakland played ten times last year. The Yankees went 9-1 in those ten games, winning eight times by multiple runs, cashing one run-line bet after the next. Clearly, there’s a class difference between these two squads, and just as clearly, the preferred way to support the Bronx Bombers is at a plus price on the run-line.
We can expect another one-sided affair tonight. Oakland’s Trevor Cahill won 18 games last year and was a serious Cy Young contender. This year he’s been almost as good, entering tonight’s game with a rock solid 3.16 ERA. But Cahill has not matched up well with New
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New York Yankees
Phil Hughes
Oakland A's
Trevor Cahill
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Update: Lack of groundballs plagues Chacin
07.22.2011 11:32 AM
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UPDATE
Two weeks ago Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning put the "fade" on Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin (see below) and it has certainly paid dividends for bettors. The Rockies have lost six straight starts with Chacin on the hill; the last of which extremely troubling (4.2 IP, 5 ERs, 7 BBs). According to
Baseball Prospectus
, one of the leading factors in Chacin's decline has been his groundball rate. Through the first three months of the season, he was hovering around the 60% mark. In July (4 starts) it's below 50% with seven home runs allowed. His next start should come next week in Los Angeles.
MLB Betting Stock Watch: Jhoulys Chacin showing signs of regression
07.08.2011
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Jhoulys Chacin
Erin Rynning
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
07.22.2011 07:48 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago (Floyd) at Cleveland (Carrasco) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Cleveland
Too much of a favorable matchup not to take a look at Cleveland and the cheap price tonight against Chicago. Carlos Carrasco has cooled off of late but a closer look shows his numbers were hurt by just two innings. Against Toronto and New York, he allowed two five-run innings, but beyond that, he's been extremely effective. The key for tonight is that Carrasco has done a fabulous job against righties (.211 BAA, .562 OPS) which bodes well with Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin producing nearly all of Chicago's offense this season. Gavin Floyd has been up and down and shows much weaker splits against lefties (.281 BAA, .767 OPS). Even with Sizemore and Choo out, the Indians can put as many as six lefties in their lineup. Despite a return to earth, Cleveland is still a solid 27-18 at home which makes tonight's pick 'em price worth a bet.
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Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco
Chicago White Sox
Gavin Floyd
Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting Update: Vazquez remains in good form with better fastball
07.21.2011 06:22 AM
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UPDATE
San Diego (Moseley) at Florida (Vazquez) -160 O/U 7.5
Florida Javier Vazquez has completely turned his season around thanks to a boost in velocity. Vazquez's
average fastball
over his last six starts has been 90 mph or better which resulted in a 1.69 ERA with 29 strikeouts and only three walks. Prior to that, Vazquez was having difficulty even topping out at 90 MPH and was routinely pounded (13 starts, 7.09 ERA). A bit tricky with the rich price tag on this afternoon's game. The market showing interest on the under – bet down from 8 to 7.5.
MLB Betting Alert: Vazquez finds success after velocity bump
07.08.2011
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Florida Marlins
Javier Vazquez
San Diego Padres
Dustin Moseley
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
07.20.2011 07:25 AM
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Milwaukee (Narveson) at Arizona (Saunders) -105 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
Two hittable pitchers slated to start in Arizona tonight with Milwaukee's Chris Narveson taking on Joe Saunders. My focus is first on the Brewers who should field a very right-handed heavy lineup against Saunders. Saunders shows significant R vs. L (.284 BA/.841 OPS vs. righties) and home vs. road splits (4.89 ERA, .309 BAA at home). Last season, the Brewers pounded him for six earned runs in 5.2 innings in pitcher friendly Anaheim. Unlike Saunders, Narveson's seasonal numbers are more in line with who he really is as a pitcher. After a couple of strong outings in April, his ERA is 5.49 over his last 15 starts. I prefer a play on Milwaukee's team total over 4.5, but will also get involved in the game total over 9 with two below average bullpens.
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Milwaukee Brewers
Chris Narveson
Arizona Diamonbacks
Joe Saunders
Andrew Lange
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