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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

09.21.2012     06:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Milwaukee (Marcum) at Washington (Jackson) -125 O/U 8
Recommendation: Washington

We’re in the midst of the MLB playoff push and unlike a majority of the season, you can have success betting on or against teams while pretty much ignoring the starting pitching matchup. Now that Milwaukee has jumped back in the postseason race, bettors are very eager to bet this squad. I don't blame them. If not for their bullpen, Milwaukee could have won 90+ games. But while it looks dangerous to step in front of this team, they won't have many edges in tonight's matchup. The Brewers tried to unload Shaun Marcum during the summer but there weren't any takers. He's had arm issues this season and since his return I've played over and/or against in each of his four starts (7.23 ERA, .997 OPS). Edwin Jackson doesn't get much fanfare but he takes the ball every fifth day and gives the Nationals a chance to win. He's a good fit vs. Milwaukee (.217 vs. righties). I respect Milwaukee's run, but we're Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Washington Nationals Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

09.20.2012     07:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Richard) +105 at Arizona (Skaggs) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: San Diego

Arizona rookie Tyler Skaggs had some fraudulent success (.203 BABIP, 12-8 K-to-BB ratio) his first three starts after being called up. In his last two outings, it caught up to Skaggs as he was pounded around by San Diego and San Francisco (7 IP, 10 ERs). Against the Giants I noticed that his velocity was also down. There are questions whether or not Skaggs has the stuff to be a successful MLB pitcher. I'll leave the door open, but I don't like what I've seen thus far, especially the 2-to-1 FB-to-GB ratio and having to pitch at Chase Field. Clayton Richard meanwhile has been solid the back half of the season with a 2.72 ERA in August and September. He doesn't miss a lot of bats and shows the typical Petco/road dichotomy, but he appears more trustworthy than Skaggs at this point. I made a play on the Padres and would also consider the over if the total reached 9.

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Cubs-Reds total opens at two touchdowns

09.19.2012     07:34 AM     Printer Friendly




Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds

MLB Betting News: Remaining schedules for American League contenders

09.17.2012     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A quick look at the remaining schedules for American League teams in the race for their respective division titles. Detroit's slate sets up well for a run at Chicago. The Tigers play the White Sox today and then play host to Oakland for a three-game set. They close out the year with 13 games against Minnesota and Kansas City. Oakland meanwhile has a brutal 10-game road swing against Detroit, New York and Texas.

NY Yankees 83-63 (1 game lead AL East)
Remaining schedule: 16 games - vs. TOR (3), vs. OAK (3), at MIN (3), at TOR (4), vs. BOS (3)

Baltimore 82-64 (1 game back AL East)
Remaining schedule: 16 games - at SEA (3), at BOS (3), vs. TOR (4), vs. BOS (3), at TB (3)

Tampa Bay 78-68 (5 games back AL East)
Remaining schedule: 16 games - vs. BOS (4), vs. TOR (3), at BOS (2), at CWS (4), vs. BAL (3)

Chicago WS 79-66 (2 game lead AL Central)
Remaining schedule: 17 games - vs. DET (1), at KC (3), at LAA (3), vs. CLE (3), vs. TB (4), at CLE (3)

Detroit 77-68 (2 games back AL Central)
Remaining schedule: 17 games - at CWS (1), vs. OAK Read more

Tags: MLB

MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

09.12.2012     10:21 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
St. Louis (Lohse) -120 at San Diego (Richard) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over

The Padres spent a good portion of this season as the worst hitting ballclub in all of baseball. And Petco Field has been the most pitcher friendly venue in the major leagues since it was built. No surprise, then, that we consistently see totals in the range that we’re seeing for this afternoon’s Padres-Cardinals battle lined Over/Under 7.5 runs.

But the long term data both for the Padres lineup and for Petco has created a false impression in the betting markets. San Diego isn’t an under team right now. In their last six home games, the Padres have scored 6, 8, 6, 5, 8 and 11 runs. All six games produced at least ten runs or more; none of them had a total higher than 7. NL RBI leader Chase Headley: “That's the great thing about our lineup right now is (teams) can't just sit there and pitch around me because we have other guys who are swinging the bat so well.” Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Notes: Astros beat Cubs in improbable fashion

09.12.2012     10:16 AM     Printer Friendly

Last night, the Houston Astros beat the Chicago Cubs 1-0. You are now one of maybe 13 people aware of that outcome. But Houston actually winning a game isn't what's intriguing; it's how they did it. The Astros scored one run, managed just four hits and committed four errors. You could take the best team in baseball and put them up against a rookie league team and they'd be a longshot to win with that stat line. Our own Marty Otto did a little bit of database work and came up with the following: Teams that scored 1 run, had less than 5 hits and committed more than 1 error went 7-152. That comes out to 4.4%. Now, when you add in that it was four errors, AND one of the worst teams in MLB history, it is safe to assume you will never see another result like that during your lifetime.

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Chicago Cubs

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at New York Mets

09.10.2012     11:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Washington (Gonzalez) -150 at NY Mets (McHugh) O/U 7
Recommendation: Washington

The modest favorite’s price here is very reasonable considering the starting pitching matchup and the current forms of these two ball clubs.  The Mets are falling apart.  They just got swept at home by the Braves over the weekend; outscored 17-5.  Since the All-Star break, in all games NOT against the worst team in baseball (Houston), New York is a woeful 2-17 here at Citi Field, a legitimate home field disadvantage!  They’ve been dominated by the Nationals all year, losing all five previous series against Washington while going 3-11 in the last 14 meetings.  Don’t expect that track record to improve today!

The Nationals are trending in the opposite direction, 9-3 in their last dozen games.  Their lineup has been on fire for weeks, pounding out seven runs or more nine times during that dozen game span.  The Mets are just 19-31 against opposing Read more

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals New York Mets Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamonbacks at San Diego Padres

09.07.2012     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona (Skaggs) at San Diego (Cashner)
Recommendation: San Diego 5-inning -120

Prior to his trip to the DL, San Diego's Andrew Cashner showcased some of his highly touted ability with 45 strikeouts in 36.2 innings and a .214 batting average against. Cashner suffered a strained right lat but the fact that San Diego will allow him to start as oppose to pitch him out of the bullpen suggests he's close to 100% healthy. Note that he’ll be on a 70-pitch count. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has made only three starts but some of his numbers show that he's been very fortunate. His ERA sits 2.60 but xFIP is a whopping 5.66. The differential has a lot to do with his miniscule .204 BABIP and whopping 90.4% left on-base. Small sample and Skaggs has some upside, but from a pure stuff standpoint, tonight's matchup favors Cashner. With Cashner not expected to go deep into this game, let's look to support him and San Diego on the 5-inning line.

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

09.02.2012     07:54 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Philadelphia (Hamels) at Atlanta (Maholm) -115 O/U 7
Recommendation: Atlanta

Not many situational spots in MLB but I'm willing to support the Atlanta Braves and they try to avoid being swept at home against Philadelphia. Not a lot to complain about with Cole Hamels. He's been consistent throughout the year but may not be as sharp as usual after skipping his last start due to some sort of stomach flu. He's also not a huge R/L split guy and the Braves will be seeing him for a fourth time. For the Braves, Paul Maholm has been very Hamels-esque with a 1.65 ERA over his last 11 starts. Maholm does have a strong R/L split (.285/.220) for his career and that sets up well against the Phillies who are hitting .264/.724 vs. righties but only .237/.691 vs. southpaws. Spot and price are right to support the short home favorite.

Follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at Cleveland Indians

08.28.2012     11:31 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Oakland (Milone) -115 at Cleveland (McAllister) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Oakland

On the day after the All-Star break, the Tribe were four games over .500, only three games back in the AL Central.  Since that time, Cleveland is a woeful 10-32, falling 16.5 games back in the AL Central. My clients and I have been betting against the Indians at every reasonable opportunity in recent weeks.  That’s been a profitable strategy; a strategy worth continuing today.

The Indians are mired in a truly ugly slump: 1-11 in their last dozen ballgames; 5-24 in their last 29.  Their offensive production is non-existent right now – they’ve scored 0, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3 and 0 runs in their last eight ballgames; completely unable to put together extended rallies.  Things won’t be any easier today for the Tribe’s lineup against the A’s Tommy Milone, coming off an 8-inning, two-hit gem against Minnesota in his last trip to the hill.

Oakland Read more

Tags: MLB Oakland A's Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers


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