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MLB Gambling Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

07.12.2013     09:54 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati (Arroyo) +125 at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Cincinnati

I've been anti-Kris Medlen from the get-go this season in part because there was no way he was going to be able to match last year's production. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his GB rate is down 10%. His current ERA sits at 3.45 but his xFIP is slightly below league average at 4.10. The key for Bronson Arroyo is the left-handed bat and while at full strength the Braves can cart a lot of lefties to the plate, they are without the services of Jordan Schafer (DL) and potentially Jason Heyward (questionable, hamstring). And I don't put much stock into Arroyo's home/road splits. Last season he was better on the highway whereas this year he sports a 5.70 ERA. To me, it's nothing more than randomness. This isn’t a perfect situation for Arroyo but the Braves are a free swinging bunch that at times has had difficulties with soft-tossing, breaking ball pitchers. Atlanta should be no more than a Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves Andrew Lange

MLB Betting News: Milwaukee Brewers and the WBC

07.12.2013     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Interesting article on the Milwaukee Brewers and some of their struggles potentially stemming from their participation in the WBC. Overall, the organization had 12 players play in the event, including Yovani Gallardo who is having a down season and Marco Estrada who is on the DL.

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Gambling News: Houston's Cosart makes debut

07.12.2013     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Houston (Cosart) at Tampa Bay (Price) -310 O/U 7.5

Houston's top prospect Jarred Cosart will make his MLB debut tonight against Tampa Bay. Cosart reportedly has an electric fastball and posted a 3.29 ERA with 93 strikeouts and 50 walks in 93 innings at Triple-A. Note that since 2010, -300 or more favorites are 28-10 SU, -5.1 units.

“He has a full half season in Triple-A and sometimes the results don’t match how we feel about his performance, because we ask him to work on certain things — asking him to work on his changeup, work on his offspeed pitches to complement what we know is a pretty electric fastball. And he’s been doing that and the way we track results is not necessarily hits or runs, it’s more about what the coaches are saying and how we’re evaluating his performance. And he’s done well

Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Gambling Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

07.11.2013     11:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
St. Louis (Westbrook) at Chicago Cubs (Jackson) +115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Chicago

The Cubs were 18-30 on May 26th.  Since that time, they’ve gone 22-19, despite being favored only eight times in their last 41 games, a major source of profits for their supporters.  Clearly, the betting markets have been slow to adjust to Chicago’s dramatically improved play!

Yes, the Cubs got absolutely annihilated by the Angels last night, but a matchup against their biggest rival should help wipe away the loss rather quickly.  Let’s not forget that Chicago has gone 6-1 in their last seven tries following a defeat; bouncing back strong on a consistent basis.

St. Louis comes into the game on a five game winning streak courtesy of the two weakest teams in baseball – they’ve feasted at home on the Marlins and Astros.  But the Cardinals were 3-8 in their previous eleven games, and they’ve lost each of their last three series Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Miami Marlins and New York Mets finding ways to win

07.11.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

On June 6, the Miami Marlins were 16-44, suffering through one of the worst opening 60 game stretches in the history of baseball. The NL East standings since then:

Washington 18-14

Miami 17-13

NY Mets 17-15

Philadelphia 14-17

Atlanta 15-16

Those are through the games of Wednesday July 10, since that division wrapped up early. We joked about Miami and Atlanta turning into each other yesterday or the day before. Miami won today’s series finale easily, meaning they’ve been 2.5 games better than the Braves over a month of action while splitting six games head-to-head.

Imagine how season storylines might have been different if the Marlins and Mets had winning records over their first five weeks of action instead of their last five weeks.

The Mets beat the Giants today. Defending World Champion San Francisco is now 3-16 their last 19 games, and 17-35 over the last two months. Riches to rags. All sorts of bedlam in Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence Miami Marlins New York Mets

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

07.10.2013     10:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Chicago WS (Axelrod) at Detroit (Porcello) -230 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over

The Tigers lineup is on fire right now.  Detroit has hammered out 54 runs in their last eight games, an average of six runs per contest while scoring at least four in every game.  That’s bad news for struggling ChiSox hurler Dylan Axelrod. 

Axelrod is winless in his last seven starts, with a 6.23 ERA during that span.  None of his four previous career outings against the Tigers has been the least bit impressive.  No surprise here if the Tigers approach or exceed this total all by themselves tonight.

But Detroit’s Rick Porcello is an easy pitcher to fade these days; not a pitcher I’m looking to lay more than 2:1 to support.  Porcello’s last two home starts have been absolutely disastrous: 19 hits and 13 earned runs allowed in just 10.1 innings of work.  The Tigers lost those two games 14-8 and 13-3 as their opponent flew Over the Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays

07.10.2013     09:55 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Minnesota (Correia) at Tampa Bay (Hellickson) O/U 8
Recommendation: Tampa Bay R/L -1.5 +110

Tampa Bay is currently MLB’s speeding locomotive and its play continues to encourage bettors to jump on. Now winners in 10 of their last 11, it’s important to note the dominance in which they’re winning games. The last nine Rays victories have all been by two or more runs and they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 48-11. Everything is clicking together right now for Tampa Bay and that especially includes the pitching of Jeremy Hellickson who is 6-1 in his last seven starts. The often inconsistent Hellickson has been on a tear defeating the power offenses of Cleveland, Baltimore, Boston, Toronto and Detroit during this stretch. In those five games, his WHIP was 1.17 and his ERA was 1.80. Add in his dominant victory over the Chicago White Sox last Friday night, and his total line the six wins during this hot streak is: 37 IP, 44 TB allowed, 1 HR, 32K-7BB, Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Tampa Bay Rays Rob Veno

MLB Gambling: New York Mets continue circus schedule

07.10.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
On yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast, Erin Rynning pointed out just how crazy the New York Mets' schedule has been over the last month. Here's a closer look...

Starting June 17, the Mets played 11 straight road games, including a doubleheader as well as a make-up game in Colorado on June 27. They had one off day during that stretch.

From June 28-July 4, the Mets had a seven-game homestand. Of those seven games, one lasted 13 innings and another 15 innings. Add those up and they basically played an extra game.

Immediately following the 15-inning affair against Arizona on July 4, the Mets hopped on a plane for a three-game series in Milwaukee.

After their series against the Brewers, with no rest, they bolted to the West Coast where they are currently in the midst of a three-game series in San Francisco.

New York wraps up its series against the Giants this afternoon and finally gets an off day but remains on the road with a three-game series at Pittsburg starting Friday.

All told, if we include the extra frames, the Mets played 24 games (16 on the road) in 23 days with only one off day. And July baseball being July baseball, they Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets

MLB Handicapping: Recapping Tuesday's games

07.10.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run through the results to update some recent Major League Baseball storylines we’ve been monitoring. Well take the games in market rotation order. If you're new to the site, we generally focus on what happens in the first five innings because there's a shortage of coverage in that particular betting proposition that's growing in popularity.

*Washington’s bats cooled off as soon as they stopped facing Milwaukee and San Diego pitching. So, there’s less reason to be enthusiastic about a surge into the playoff picture. The Nats are just two games over .500 with tonight’s full game loss. It’s probably going to take about +18 over .500 to grab a Wildcard (90-72). I usually use the four-max approach when talking about five-inning offense (capping scoring off at a maximum of four runs to diminish the impact of outliers). Look at Washington’s recent 5-inning statline if I leave in the real numbers: 1-1-5-8-0-0-3-8-3-11-0-1. Two 8’s and an 11! But, Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Betting News: Doubront's a better pitcher despite dip in velocity

07.10.2013     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Boston (Doubront) -130 at Seattle (Harang) O/U 8

It is no secret that Felix Doubront's velocity is significantly down from last season. But this year's version has up until this point been far more effective. Doubront's strikeout rate is still a very respectable 8.51 per 9 and his FIP is a very healthy 3.74. What Doubront has done is avoid the long ball with only eight allowed through 92 innings. According to his catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia Doubront's success has come from far better command of his secondary pitches.

"He's got more command with his off-speed stuff," catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia said. "The changeup's a big pitch, 3-2 counts, 3-1 counts on big hitters. He's definitely become more of a complete pitcher, you can't really sit on one pitch. As far as just being able to throw the ball over the plate, get these hitters aggressive and

Read more

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners


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