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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks

06.22.2013     07:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati (Leake) at Arizona (Corbin) -120 O/U 8
Recommendation: Arizona

Mike Leake has been solid this season but I notice a few that suggest there is likely to be some upcoming regression. His left of base percentage is a tad high (82.4%) but more importantly he’s managed to cut his home run/fly ball rate in half from last season. He's getting a few more groundballs this year but to allow only 7 dingers in 88.2 IP is pretty remarkable considering Leake doesn't possess plus stuff. Also note Leake's competition. Of his 13 starts against the National League, 11 came against teams that rank 9th or worse (out of 15) in OPS – that very well could be tied to the HR/FB improvement. In his two starts against quality NL offenses (St. Louis and Atlanta) Leake allowed 14 hits and 7 runs in 12 innings. Arizona, while not as potent as the Cardinals and Braves, is a step up on class compared a majority of Leake's foes.

I thought the ship had sailed on Patrick Corbin but here Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling: Kansas City Royals blame crappy plate approach on home stadium

06.21.2013     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here is a prime example why the Kansas City Royals continues to be, well, the Kansas City Royals. Dayton Moore, the team's GM, claims that Kauffman Stadium is the reason why the team's walk rate is so low. Needless to say, it wasn’t hard to debunk that ridiculous theory.

“We have the largest ballpark in terms of square footage of any ballpark in baseball,” Moore says. “When pitchers come here, they have the mindset to use that park — put the ball in play, throw strikes, attack the zone. There isn’t the same fear factor of getting beat deep that you might have elsewhere.

“I think that plays a huge factor in that walk statistic.”

Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals

MLB Betting News: Trying to make sense of Jon Lester's up and down season

06.21.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Boston (Lester) at Detroit (Fister) -135 O/U 8.5

The curious case of Jon Lester continues. After starting the season on fire (9 starts, 2.72 ERA) the veteran southpaw has fallen on hard times (6 starts, 7.20 ERA). According to Lester, physically everything is fine though his velocity has been up and down for much of the season. Walks and command have also been an issue. His last start against Baltimore was particularly intriguing. He lasted only five innings and gave up nine hits and five runs but didn't walk a batter, fanned a season-high eight, and posted a whopping 20 swing strikes (14 the previous three starts combined). Note that during those six “bad” starts, his BABIP was a sky high .370 so perhaps his luck will start to turn. As with a lot of these cutter-heavy pitchers, we'll leave the door open for some sort of arm Read more

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers

MLB Gambling Notes: Jered Weaver's rapid decline continues

06.21.2013     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Cole) at LA Angels (Weaver) -160 O/U 7.5

Since returning from the DL, Los Angeles' Jered Weaver hasn't looked particularly sharp. He threw farily well against the Cubs (6 IP, 1 ER) but was smacked around by both the Orioles (5.2 IP, 4 ERs) and Yankees (6 IP, 5 ER).  His velocity in those three starts was up compared to where he was at earlier in the season. In fact, against the Yankees he had his best fastball velocity of the season and as a result posted a season-high 17 swinging strikes. However, as FanGraphs points out, pretty much all of Weaver's skills are on the decline and he needs to be approached with caution -- especially with how overvalued the Angels remain in the betting markets (-9.4 units YTD).

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

06.20.2013     11:55 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Miami (Koehler) at San Francisco (Gaudin) -175 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I have cashed a few Miami Marlins Over tickets since the returns of Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison to the lineup and I think we have another solid betting opportunity tonight as they head to the Bay Area to face the San Francisco Giants.

One of those Miami Over bets came in Tom Koehler’s last start as he was lit up big time allowing 9 runs on 8 hits in 4.2 rough innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Koehler simply doesn’t have dominating, overpowering stuff and it has shown in his last three starts as he has been knocked around for 17 earned runs and five homers. His performance level on the road hasn’t been good either notching an 0-2 record and a 5.04 ERA in four starts. I expect the surging San Francisco lineup which has scored 4+ runs in five of its last seven games to have a lot of success. On the flip side, I’m not sure how much longer Chad Gaudin Read more

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Miami Marlins Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapping: 5-Inning Tie Percentage by Stadium

06.20.2013     08:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence (a must follow on Twitter)

One of the fun challenges of trying to make smart selections on 5-inning Major League baseball props involves deciding whether or not to lay a half a run with less vigorish on favorites…or to take a half run for a less favorable payoff on underdogs.

Quick examples:

*A favorite in the -170 range might strike you as kind of pricey, even if there are clear edges that would suggest superiority within a five-inning sprint (and those would obviously have to exist for a team to be favored by that much!). You have the option of instead taking that favorite -0.5 runs and laying only around -120. Feels a lot cheaper because -120’s much better than -170. But, is it? How much is that half a run worth?

*An underdog in the +120 to +130 range will often make sense to be competitive within the first five. Does “competitive mean a lot of 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 ties? If so, Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: Colorado's Roy Oswalt back on the bump

06.20.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Colorado (Oswalt) at Washington (Zimmermann) -170 O/U 7

Roy Oswalt makes his return tonight in Washington after making five starts at Double-A (33.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, 25 Ks, 7 BBs, 5 HRs). According to one report, Oswalt's fastball was "consistently at 92 mph" and got as high as 95. In another, Oswalt himself admitted he more of a "91-92" guy and no longer "94." Not sure he's got the stuff to succeed in Coors Field at this stage in his career but tonight's matchup is one he should be able to handle.

"He's always a competitive guy, a tough at-bat," Weiss said. "He's a nice piece to have. He's ready to go. His velocity is real good and throwing all his pitches. "He's done just about everything in this game, pitched in big

Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Washington Nationals

MLB Gambling Free Play: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

06.19.2013     11:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Mets (Marcum) at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Atlanta -1.5 +120

After getting swept by the Mets yesterday, Atlanta was in no laughing mood.  They are in danger of losing their first series at home all year if they can’t notch the win today; an MLB best 24-10 on this field this year.  17 of those 24 wins have come by multi-run margins; consistent moneymakers at home when laying -1.5 on the run line.

Even after yesterday’s sweep, the Mets are 17-31 in their last 48 ballgames.  Starter Shaun Marcum is coming off a beating at the hands of the Cubs, the seventh time in his last ten starts that he’s notched only four or fewer strikeouts.  He’s winless in three previous tries on this field, and the suspect Mets bullpen behind him was used extensively in yesterday’s doubleheader. 

Braves starter Kris Medlen has owned the Mets lineup.  In 16 outings against New York he’s never lost a game, Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Atlanta Braves Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros

06.19.2013     08:06 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Milwaukee (Lohse) -115 at Houston (Bedard) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under

Extreme turnaround by the starters in tonight’s contest gives this game a totally different look than it would’ve had if played around five weeks ago. At that time, Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse was in the midst of a five game stretch where he did not post a quality start. Combined during that stretch, Lohse threw 27.2 innings, allowed an unbelievable 71 total bases, had a 1.81 WHIP, 6.51 ERA, and 16/9 K:BB numbers. Things have turned around for Lohse as he’s now had three straight quality outings with two of them coming against the strong offenses of Oakland and Cincinnati. The change in results has been drastic during this current run as Lohse has pitched 20 innings, allowed just 26 total bases, recorded a 2.25 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and posted 12/2 K:BB numbers. This consistent span is enhanced tonight by his recent ownership of the Astros (4-1, 1.59 ERA last two years). Houston remains a poor Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astors Milwaukee Brewers Rob Veno

MLB Handicapping: Petco Park producing a higher home run rate

06.18.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article by FanGraphs on the changes that have taken place at Petco Park since they moved in the fences. The sample size obviously isn't big but double and triples are down while home runs are up. On the season, the Padres are 18-16-2 O/U at home.

That’s a 0.49% increase run value per PA. In (3 x 9 PA) 27 PA of a game, that’s an increase of 0.135 runs. In about 7 games, they are scoring an extra run; that’s an extra run per week. So we can say this: More game-context-neutral offense has thus far occurred at Petco Park.

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres


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