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MLB Betting Free Play: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's

06.05.2012     07:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas (Holland) at Oakland (Blackley)
Recommendation: Texas R/L +105

I'm not a big run/line bettor but I see value in supporting the Texas Rangers in that manner tonight in Oakland. Last night marked another mysterious loss for the Rangers as the A's hung eight runs in the second en route to a 12-1 win. If you remember a few weeks back, they were pounded by Seattle 21-8. Derek Holland started that game and allowed eight of the 21 runs. He'll look to bounce back tonight in what historically has been a much more successful situation. Last season Holland made three starts against the A's and allowed a total of three earned runs. The year before that, two starts and two earned runs. And like a lot of Texas pitchers, Holland's road numbers are far better. This year's home/road split reads 2.84 ERA/6.89 ERA. For his career, his road ERA is nearly a run and a half better. According to Holland, his last start was nothing more than a mental breakdown rather than something mechanical. For Oakland, Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Notes: Move to Cincinnati has not been kind to Mat Latos

06.04.2012     11:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
FanGraphs tries to explain Cincinnati starter Mat Latos' problems (4.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). One theory is the introduction of a cutter – a very popular pitch these days that not everyone has success with. Not shy about challenging hitters up in the zone, Latos has also struggled with the home run ball having allowed 12 on the season including 10 at tiny Great American Ball Park.

The most troubling aspect of Latos’ struggles is that only one of his pitches has been above-average this season according to pitch type values. In previous years, Latos has been able to rely on his fastball, slider and changeup. This season, only his fastball has a positive pitch value. His slider, which has typically been his most effective pitch, is getting knocked around quite a bit. It’s gone from being rated as one of the best sliders in the league last season (10.5 pitch value) to one of the worst this year (-2.7).

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

06.04.2012     07:47 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Lohse) at NY Mets (Gee) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: New York

This is a clear case of two pitchers moving in opposite directions. After being practically unhittable to start the year, Kyle Lohse has returned to earth with a 5.70 ERA over his last four starts. During that span he allowed 35 hits in 23.2 innings with only 12 strikeouts. He was a tad unlucky with a .347 BABIP but Lohse's inability to miss bats makes it nearly impossible for him to perform at a high level for sustained periods of time. Meanwhile, Dillon Gee suffered from some bad luck in the early going with a .351 BABIP through his first seven starts. The difference was that Gee was missing bats with 37 strikeouts and only nine walks in 43 innings. Things have started to go his way of late however with three straight quality starts. I don't expect the Cardinals' struggles to last forever but this team doesn't have a lot of confidence right now. The Mets meanwhile continue to defy logic and are worth a play at Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Alert: Chicago White Sox continue to tempt fate with Sale

06.04.2012     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Prior to this year, Chicago's Chris Sale had never started a game at the professional level. The White Sox though converted him into a starter during the offseason and in his first outing, he threw 100 pitches. After four straight starts of 100 pitches or more, Sale's elbow flared up and the White Sox decided to return him to the bullpen. That proved short lived as Sale was back in the starting rotation less than two weeks later. Everything seemed to be going smoothly with three solid efforts and fairly moderate pitch counts (103, 103 and 97). But then Sale decided to go and strikeout 15 against Tampa Bay – a performance that required 115 pitches. And in his next outing, albeit on an extra day of rest, Sale threw a 119-pitch complete game against Seattle. So just to recap, we have a reliever turned starter who complained of elbow problems and less than a month later threw 234 pitches in consecutive starts. This is probably not going to end well. Sale is slated to throw Saturday vs. Houston.

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox

MLB Handicapping: Cardinals, Braves, Dodgers and Orioles cool off

06.04.2012     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
St. Louis Cardinals (27-27)
The good times: 20-11 with a 3.5-game lead in the National League Central on May 9.
The bad times: 7-16 run since then. Everything simply cooled off. The offense has been stymied of late (1 run last three games) and Lohse, Westbrook and Lynn finally came back down to earth.
Notes: The Cardinals have the worst "luck" in the National League at -5 games. Their Pythagorean W-L record is 32-22 which is tops in the NL.

Atlanta Braves (29-25)
The good times: 25-15 with a 1.5-game lead in the National League East on May 19.
The bad times: Lost eight in a row but have bounced back some by winning three of last four. With the exception of Brandon Beachy, Atlanta's starting pitching has been a big disappointment, ranking 15th of 16 NL teams in ERA.
Notes: After a three-game series at Miami, the Braves play 15 straight games against the American League East.

Los Angeles Dodgers (33-21)
The good times: 33-15 with an amazing 7-game lead in the National League West.
The bad times: Matt Kemp back on the DL and the team has lost six of their last Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles

Sunday MLB Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwauke Brewers

06.03.2012     09:22 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Pittsburgh (McDonald) at Milwaukee (Fiers) -105 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under

Milwaukee will be weakened offensively once again as their main production source Ryan Braun is scheduled to sit out again with recurring Achilles problems and now a sore hip. Without him last night, the Brewers managed to run Pittsburgh lefty Erik Bedard in 3.2 by scoring five runs with the key hit being Brooks Conrad’s three-run homer in the fourth. Today against Pirates RH James McDonald, Milwaukee’s success figures to be far less. McDonald has been dominating opposing lineups the past month and a half going 4-1 while posting a 1.81 ERA AND 0.89 WHIP over his last seven starts. McDonald’s better than 4-1 K:BB ratio (57 Ks- 13 BBs) and 1.15 K per inning numbers during this stretch are extremely favorable against this Milwaukee lineup which has struck out 429 times this season, second most in the NL. For the host, righty Michael Fiers makes the second major league start of his career. Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

06.02.2012     10:38 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seattle (Noesi) at Chicago WS (Floyd) -135 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

We cashed a free play winner with Chicago-Seattle Over the total last night, and there’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatically different result today.  Here’s a brief excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers updated to reflect current realities:

“The White Sox have been Over machines at the Cell in recent weeks; 9-1 to the Over in their last ten tries at home.  Robin Ventura’s lineup has been crushing opposing pitching, pounding out 71 runs in those last ten at home…Seattle’s lineup came alive during their just concluded series at Texas, as the light hitting Mariners exploded for 31 runs in the final two games of the series, going Over the total by themselves in both contests.  They also scored 28 runs in the final five games of their previous road trip, finding offensive Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners Teddy Covers

Saturday MLB Betting Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

06.02.2012     08:46 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Harang) at Colorado (Nicasio) -145 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Over

We cashed a pair of underdog winners to start June baseball and chipped-in a free play winner on the Pirates +135 in their 8-2 win at Milwaukee last night. Today it’s back to the totals market and no reason not to ride the Rockies OVER meal ticket as they host division leading LA. The Dodgers have lost five straight games while the Rockies enter on a roll with five straight wins.

Colorado games have gone over the total 11 consecutive games and have scored 13, 11, 13, 7 and 9 runs during their surge at home. Note that shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has been out the past two games and is now on the 15-day disabled list. Still, the hot bats should continue against LA starter Aaron Harang, who has allowed 41 hits in 33 innings on the road with a .306 BAA.

Rockies starter Juan Nicasio has been hit hard his last two starts and has a .325 BAA at Coors Field along with a 7.04 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Colorado Rockies __

MLB Gambling: Bullpens succeeding and failing at same rate as last year

06.02.2012     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
As bettors, we like to complain each and every season that bullpen meltdowns are occurring at a historical rate. The reality is however that this year's numbers are very similar to 2011.  Remember, if (insert name of random relief pitcher who cost you 2 units last week) were that good, they’d be in the starting rotation.

Tags: MLB

MLB Handicapping: Chicago White Sox go for 10th straight victory

06.02.2012     07:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Seattle (Noesi) at Chicago WS (Floyd) -145 O/U 9

The red hot Chicago White Sox go for 10 straight wins today against Seattle. Chicago scored 156 runs in the month of May; second-most in the Majors. Since mid-May, they've averaged over 8.5 runs per game at home and during their nine-game winning streak the bats have produced 72 runs (8.0 rpg). At home they have a strong .779 OPS. They are currently the second most profitable team in the American League (+8.6 units) behind Baltimore (+11.1).

"Right now we're on a good roll," said Beckham, who is batting .324 during an eight-game hitting streak, raising his average 25 points to .229. "It's first of June. We're doing the right things coming to work every day and hoping it's enough. The last week and a half it's been enough. You just can't get complacent because this game will humble you really quickly." Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners


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