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MLB Handicapping: Red hot Mat Latos returns to San Diego

07.05.2012     05:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -135 at San Diego (Volquez) O/U 6.5

Is Mat Latos finally getting it? It appears so after back-to-back 1-run complete games in which Latos allowed just six hits and struck out 20. Tonight he returns to his old stomping ground as a medium-sized road favorite.

"I think the main thing is is we're exactly on the same page as far as what we want to do," Hanigan said. "We're really getting into a good tempo. I think we trust each other. I think we know what our plan is. There's no guessing, there's no indecision.

"And he's attacking. He's getting into good counts. When he's not in good counts, he doesn't let it get away from him -- not a lot 2-0s, 3-1s. He's always in the count. He's got a 94 mph fastball. It makes his offs-peed stuff that much tougher."

"His slider

Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds San Diego Padres

4th of July Betting Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners

07.04.2012     07:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Baltimore (Tillman) -105 at Seattle (Noesi) O/U 8
Recommendation: Baltimore

I've been playing against Seattle Hector Noesi in some capacity for much of the season. Nearly every number I use to determine the true quality of a starting pitcher tells me that Noesi is one of the worst in baseball. His lone saving grace – at least on the surface – is a respectable 3.86 ERA at home. But take a look at his FIP and xFIP and you'll notice his performances at home aren't too far removed from what he's done on the road (7.42 ERA). Baltimore calls up Charles Tillman for a spot start. His career numbers are not very good (5.58 ERA in 180.2 IP) but he's simply not built to handle the rigors of the American League East every fifth day. He is however capable of showing up at Safeco and keeping the Mariners in check. I'm supporting the road side in this one.

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Alert: Markets looking to fade Cueto and Haren

07.03.2012     08:58 AM     Printer Friendly
Two pretty big market moves on today's MLB slate. Cincinnati and Johnny Cueto opened -155 at CRIS and -135 at Pinnacle against Los Angeles and Chris Capuano. The Reds are now around a -117 road favorite. LA's Dan Haren has really struggled of late (20 earned runs last four starts) and yet opened as a -133 road favorite at Pinnacle. He's been bet down to as low as -111 against Cleveland and Zach McAllister. Line history courtesy of 5Dimes.



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Angels Cleveland Indians

MLB Betting Notes: Cashner and Bauer square off at Chase Field

07.03.2012     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Diego (Cashner) at Arizona (Bauer) -145 O/U 9

Preview from FanGraphs on tonight's San Diego-Arizona matchup featuring the touted arms of Andrew Cashner and Trevor Bauer. In his first start since being recalled, Casher allowed two hits, two runs and fanned nine in 6.1 innings at Houston. Bauer had a little tougher time, lasting only four innings and allowing two runs at Atlanta.

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres

MLB Handicapping: Understanding the cutter

07.03.2012     07:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The cutter has become the new "it" pitch in baseball over the last few years. But while it has the ability to revitalize a career, it also seems to cause an eventual drop in velocity. Here's an interview with pitching coaches Roger McDowell and Randy St. Claire about the popular offering.

St. Claire: “For me, a cutter is a fastball that’s moving. It runs in on that left-handed hitter’s hands. There is velocity to it, and there is no spin to the ball that you can pick up. A slider has spin and usually a tight dot to it. It’s usually when you throw a poor slider that it gets hit. On a cutter, the hitter does not pick up the spin on the ball. At the last, just before contact, the ball is sliding. For a left-hander it’s sliding to the right, and for a right-hander it’s sliding to the left. It’s very short break, too. A cutter is a contact pitch that makes them mis-hit the ball.”

Tags: MLB

MLB Betting Notes: Verlander starting to find groove with change-up

07.02.2012     01:34 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
We're nitpicking a little but over the last month, Detroit's Justin Verlander – by his standards – has been uncharacteristically hittable. Now being able to maintain a 2.15 ERA in the American League is extremely tough and every pitcher goes through a stale period or two during the course of a full season. That appears to be the case with Verlander who over his last seven starts has a 3.54 ERA. His last outing against Tampa was the worst of the bunch in which he allowed four earned runs in six innings. He did however take away something positive from the outing; the rediscovery of his change-up.

"My changeup has been absent for a couple months now," he said. "It was nice to get a good feel for that again with good depth. I've been able to throw it for strikes, but it hasn't had much action on it. Tonight was better, so that's a positive that I'm looking forward to working with down the road."

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers

MLB Free Prop Bet: Home Runs vs. Away Runs

07.02.2012     01:10 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Home Runs -180 vs. Away Runs
Recommendation: Home Runs

I don't normally play the Home Runs vs. Away Runs prop play in part because every time I do, I'll be well on my way to victory and there will inevitably be a rain out. That being said, I did take a shot tonight supporting the home side laying the moderate price (-177 @ Pinnacle). I see a lot of games with home teams having a distinct starting pitching advantage. In the National League, Pittsburgh (McDonald), Atlanta (Hanson), Milwaukee (Greinke), and St. Louis (Lohse) are all -160 favorites or more. I especially like that grouping because I see two pitchers on the road who are on my "play against" list in Chicago's Jeff Samardzija and Miami's Carlos Zambrano. In the AL, Ricky Romero has struggled but the Jays face a weak arm in KC’s Everett Teaford. Doug Fister is a big favorite over gas can Liam Hendriks for Minnesota. Add two untrustable veterans in Freddy Garcia and Dice-K and the home sides have plenty of opportunity to put up runs in bunches. I don't see one "mismatch" away favorite on the card. Jered Weaver is as close as you are going to get but Read more

Tags: MLB Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling News: Toronto's Romero struggles to find strike zone

07.02.2012     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Kansas City (Teaford) at Toronto (Romero) -155 O/U 9.5

Toronto has a lot of pitching issues these days; one of which from an unlikely source if you go by last year's numbers. Ricky Romero has been a train wreck this season (4.94 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) and as FanGraphs points out, his biggest problem has been walks. Romero has issued 52 free passes in 98.1 innings whereas last season he walked only 80 batters in 225 innings.

The obvious difference comes in his walk rate, and even in today’s big inning, the walks were a problem. Romero walked 10.3% in his rookie season, then he walked 9.3% in his decent followup, and 8.7% in his breakout season last year. Now his walk rate is at a career-worst 11.3%.

Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Kansas City Royals

MLB Betting Update: Clearly not right, Cubs give Samardzija another start

07.02.2012     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly

Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) at Atlanta (Hanson) -190 O/U 8

For whatever reason, the Chicago Cubs will continue to roll the dice with Jeff Samardzija who is clearly wearing down in his first season as a full-time MLB starter. Samardzija has already matched last year's inning total and is just over 50 away from hitting his professional career high (141.2 in 2007). In the span of just over a month, Samardzija's ERA has jumped from 3.00 to 5.05. His stat line from his last four starts: 18.1 IP, 25 ER, 14 Ks, 10 BBs, 4 HRs, 12.27 ERA, 1.033 OPS. And if that weren't bad enough, manager Dale Sveum was quoted as saying, “I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned a little bit with the numbers and execution Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Atlanta Braves

Sunday MLB Betting Free Play: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners

07.01.2012     07:31 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Boston (Doubront) -130 at Seattle (Vargas) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

The lack of offense in Safeco Field has been a topic of discussion inside the sabermetric community this week as pitchers have had more than the normal success here this season. Seattle has now gone under the total in eight consecutive games and Manager Eric Wedge had a 20+ minute meeting with his club prior to batting practice yesterday to see if he could get the offense jump started. Their three runs, .231 game batting average and .590 game OPS aren’t exactly what the skipper had in mind but today looks like a real opportunity for Mariners run production to break through. Boston starter Felix Doubront has not been very good over his last four games allowing a whopping 57 total bases in the 23 inning span. The lefty has a 1.52 WHIP and 6.65 ERA in those contests with location being an admitted problem in his last start. Safeco as mentioned above has been a park that among other things eats up fly balls but Read more

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners Rob Veno


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