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MLB Gambling News: A Unique Look at Offenses

05.20.2013     10:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As you probably know, I’ve been playing around with 5-inning options in Major League Baseball this year. Part of the fun of that is doing record-keeping that you know nobody else is doing. Helps you see things from different perspectives.

I’ve been logging all the results by hand because there aren’t any websites I know of that go in-depth with this stuff. That’s GREAT, because it’s easier to gain and maintain an edge over the market when information isn’t widely available. Don’t think I’ll be giving away anything to vital in this post…though creative readers may find a way to use the data.

Here’s the percentage of time that each offense has reached at least two runs in the first five innings this year, through the games of Sunday afternoon…


Detroit 76%

Baltimore 73%

LA Angels 68%

Boston 68%

Tampa Bay 67%

Cleveland Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

05.20.2013     09:44 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona (Corbin) -110 at Colorado (Garland) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Arizona

Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price. Read more

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

05.16.2013     10:03 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -155 at Miami (Fernandez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13 Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

05.16.2013     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Washington (Strasburg) -140 at San Diego (Volquez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

The Nationals lineup has gone ice cold.  They’ve plated just ten runs in their last five games, and nearly half of those runs came in three innings against Josh Beckett, who went on the DL following that outing.  The Nats have 46 strikeouts during that span, while hitting .133 with runners in scoring position.  Padres starter Edison Volquez threw seven innings of three hit, one run ball in his lone start against Washington last year.  And Volquez has been dominant in each of his last two home starts here at Petco: 13.2 innings of work, nine hits and one run against two pretty good hitting lineups – Milwaukee and Arizona.  It’s surely worth noting that the Nats have been held to three runs or less in six of their last seven games in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors.

Stephen Strasburg hasn’t won since opening day, and he’s Read more

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals San Diego Padres Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling Notes: Boston's Doubront back after making adjustments

05.16.2013     06:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Boston (Doubront) at Tampa Bay (Cobb) -137 O/U 8

After skipping a start and making some mechanical adjustments, Boston's Felix Doubront is back on this hill this evening in Tampa. Doubront was fairly effective his first four starts (23.1 IP, 20 hits, 29 Ks, 13 BBs) but fell apart his last two (9 IP, 23 hits, .489 BAA). His velocity in those starts was significantly down which suggests the problems could be arm related. We recommend taking a wait-and-see approach.

"Figure out little things in my mechanics that help me to stay in line, to stay repeating my delivery and throw more strikes down in the zone," Doubront said. "That kind of helps. ... Just feel confident on the mound. Like I said repeat and repeat. That's going to help when everything is going to come back and feel more confident than before."

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Handicapping: Greinke returns after broken collarbone

05.15.2013     10:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington (Detwiler) at LA Dodgers (Greinke) -140 O/U 6.5

Just over a month removed from breaking his left collarbone, Zach Greinke is back on the hill. Originally slated to miss eight weeks, Greinke is reportedly good to go after throwing 80 pitches in a recent rehab start.

"He feels like he's ready," manager Don Mattingly said ( "His stuff kind of tells us he's ready. He wants to pitch."

"I'm sure there's a lot of risk every day," he said ( "If it makes sense, you do it. If I didn't feel ready, I wouldn't do it. If it was 50/50, you don't do it. I say it's well worth the risk we're taking. If everyone in baseball had the same feeling I have, everyone would be playing. It's nothing superhero-ish. If you felt what I feel, you'd do the same thing."

Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals

MLB Gambling Free Pick: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

05.15.2013     10:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Mets (Marcum) at St. Louis (Miller) -210 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

"It's definitely the best game I've thrown in my life.”  That was Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller’s quote following his truly dominant 13 strikeout, one hit complete game shutout over the Rockies in his last outing.  But Miller matched his career high in pitches thrown in that contest; and it’s only the second time all season he’s averaged less than 16 pitches per inning. Coming off the "best game of his life", I’m expecting significant ‘regression to the mean’ from Miller this evening.

Mets starter Shaun Marcum is an even stronger bet against candidate this evening.  Since starting the season on the DL, Marcum has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his starts, with an 8.59 ERA and a whopping .400 batting average against.  Mets manager Terry Collins: “I think Shaun tried to hurry through the rehab and get up Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Notes: Seattle's Iwakuma off to a strong start

05.15.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Seattle (Iwakuma) at NY Yankees (Hughes) -120 O/U 7.5

Good article on the emergence of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma. In eight starts, Iwakuma sports a 1.74 ERA with 51 strikeouts and only eight walks. We'd expect him to regress some moving forward (51.2 IP, 30 hits, .198 BABIP) but his success isn't a total fluke considering his vast array of pitches and control.

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners New York Yankees

MLB Handicapping: Using historical data to bet on baseball

05.14.2013     02:09 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Great article on FanGraphs about how past batter vs. pitcher results are poor indicators of how to predict the future – in part because both entities change over time. One example in play tonight is Seattle's decision to put Raul Ibanez at DH despite the fact that he's lefty and CC Sabathia eats lefties for dinner (.167 BAA). It is a similar argument to (insert pitcher) sports a (insert bad ERA) at (insert stadium) despite the fact that said pitcher hasn't thrown there in three years and 85% of the lineup that crushed him is gone. They OWN him, man!

Tags: MLB New York Yankees Seattle Mariners

MLB Gambling Free Play: San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays

05.14.2013     11:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
San Francisco (Zito) +123 at Toronto (Dickey) O/U 9
Recommendation: San Francisco

It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Blue Jays as chalk these days.  High priced offseason acquisition RA Dickey hasn’t won a game in nearly a month, allowing 17 runs in 25 innings of work over his last four outings, all Toronto defeats.  Dickey was favored in three of those four losses, just as he is today.   For a guy who was 43-55 with an ERA well over 4.00 prior to last season’s remarkable Cy Young campaign, the 2012 season is looking more and more like an aberration, not a sign of continued success to come.

Toronto has no discernible home field edge right now, 7-12 at the Rogers Centre compared to their 8-12 road mark.  From a run differential standpoint, the Blue Jays -47 ranks as the third worst in all of baseball, ahead of only the two true bottom feeders: Miami and Houston.  In other words, there is absolutely nothing Read more

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Teddy Covers


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