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MLB Gambling Notes: Shaun Marcum's crazy BABIP baffles bettors
04.23.2012 10:22 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
I almost spit up my coffee this morning when I read that SHAUN FREAKIN’ MARCUM is currently tops in all of baseball (starters) in
swinging strikes at 15.4%
(league average is 8.4%). All of you have seen Marcum pitch and while he throw strikes and doesn’t issue many walks, his stuff is more baffling than impressive. He swinging strike rate obviously won’t last but perhaps even more amazing has been Marcum’s ability to maintain below league average BABIP for such a long period of time.
Since 2007, Marcum has thrown 725.1 innings with a rock solid 3.67 ERA and 48-29 record. During that span, his yearly BABIP numbers are: .269, .246, .280, .264, .250...for an average of .266!
I went on Baseball Reference and looked up other starting pitchers who have had similar career paths and found that none of them are even close to being that fortunate. Yovano Gallardo's lifetime BABIP is .302, Jair Jurrjens' is .297 and Daisuke Matsuzaka's is .292. Marcum has had one "normal" season (only 78.1 IP) BABIP wise with a
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Sunday MLB Free Betting Pick: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
04.15.2012 07:50 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Detroit
(Porcello) at -Chicago- (Sale) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Chicago
I'm buying Chicago lefty Chris Sale, especially early in the season when fatigue isn't an issue and teams are getting their first extended look at him. Sale was one of the better middle relievers in the American League last season and is starting to develop some solid off-speed offerings. He looked sharp in his first start, allowing one earned run in 6.2 innings (and a modest 100 pitches). I enjoy watching Detroit's Rick Porcello but he's never going to be a front-of-the-rotation arm. He generally throws strikes and mixes things well, but without big time velocity or an outpitch, he has trouble going entire games without getting into trouble. The White Sox are obviously familiar with Porcello having seen him seven times (6.91 ERA). Let's also not forget that the White Sox are playing some good baseball having won four straight with a chance for the three-game sweep against the Tigers. I think it happens.
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Detroit Tigers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
04.12.2012 07:07 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Miami
(Buehrle) -110 at
Philadelphia
(Blanton) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
Well aware that Philadelphia's offense can no longer be regarded as potent but with two hittable pitches and a total of 8 in Citizens Bank Park, we'll take a look at the OVER. Joe Blanton hasn't started a game since May of last season and is nothing but a stop-gap at this point in his career. He made one appearance out of the bullpen last Saturday and proceeded to take the loss after allowing two hits and a run in 0.2 innings. After a few decent years for Oakland and the Phillies, Blanton has been in steady decline. Since 2010, he's combined ERA is 4.88 with a 1.43 WHIP. Miami's Mark Buehrle was solid in his first National League start, allowing two earned runs in six innings in a loss at Cincinnati. The Phillies should be able to run out a fairly right-hand heavy lineup tonight. Umpire Jeff Nelson has trended towards the OVER at nearly a 60% clip the last three seasons. The wind is expected to be blowing in
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Sunday MLB Free Betting Pick: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
04.08.2012 07:33 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Francisco
(Cain) -125 at
Arizona
(Collmenter) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: San Francisco
I love the fact that baseball has changed so dramatically that mediocre pitchers can go out and have success. Six or seven years ago, a guy like Josh Collmenter would have never sniffed the mound and if he did, the results wouldn't have been pretty. But while the game is better suited for pitchers nowadays, I think Collmenter may be on borrowed time. His success stems from a funky delivery and throwing strikes. The velocity sits in the mid-80s and a lot of times, it is the batters that get themselves out by over-swinging. Opposing Collmenter will be Matt Cain who just inked a massive deal after three straight ultra-productive seasons. Cain allowed only nine home runs last season so look for a little bit of regression in that department. Still, he is obviously a much more viable option in this matchup and the betting markets certainly agree with money pouring in on the Giants. A number of
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Saturday MLB Free Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
04.06.2012 06:52 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
St. Louis
(Wainwright) at
Milwaukee
(Greinke) -120 O/U 7
Recommendation: Milwaukee
Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers went an MLB-best 57-24 at home – a number that they are unlikely to duplicate. Contributing in large part to that success was Zach Greinke who went a perfect 11-0 (Milwaukee was 17-0 in his starts) at Miller Park – again a number that simply cannot be matched. But, the Brewers should once again be contenders in the NL Central and to see a premium arm like Greinke at home at such a cheap price has my interest. At no point last year was Greinke cheaper than a -130 home favorite and despite opposing starter Adam Wainwright's pedigree, the fact that he didn't pitch at all last season leaves me leery that he'll be dialed in immediately (he’ll likely be on some sort of pitch count). St. Louis is off to a 2-0 start but remain a team I am looking to bet against in the early going. The spot seems ripe today to exercise that opinion.
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Milwaukee Brewers
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MLB Betting Trends: Trying to figure out why Wakefield and Dickey show day/night splits?
04.06.2012 01:56 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Back in 2010, we posted a blog on the oddity of
Tim Wakefield's day/night splits
. For whatever reason – who couldn't come up with anything logical – Wakefield's career numbers during the day were dramatically better than at night.
Wakefield Day: 3.69 ERA/1.22 WHIP/.238 BAA
Wakefield Night: 4.72 ERA/1.41 WHIP/.261 BAA
This from a guy who showed little to no split both righty/lefty and home/road. It stood out even more considering some of his fellow knucklers – Phil Niekro, Tom Candiotti, and Charlie Hough – didn't have any day/night dichotomy.
Well with Wakefield now retired – he'll be on the Yankees by mid-June – that leaves us with our main man R.A. Dickey as the lone knuckleballer. Dickey is slated to start tomorrow at home against Atlanta...for a 1:10 pm ET start. Remembering Wakefield's split, we out of curiosity checked Dickey's career numbers during the day. What we found further cemented Wakefield's splits as being random; Dickey's career numbers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
07.22.2011 07:48 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago (Floyd) at Cleveland (Carrasco) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Cleveland
Too much of a favorable matchup not to take a look at Cleveland and the cheap price tonight against Chicago. Carlos Carrasco has cooled off of late but a closer look shows his numbers were hurt by just two innings. Against Toronto and New York, he allowed two five-run innings, but beyond that, he's been extremely effective. The key for tonight is that Carrasco has done a fabulous job against righties (.211 BAA, .562 OPS) which bodes well with Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin producing nearly all of Chicago's offense this season. Gavin Floyd has been up and down and shows much weaker splits against lefties (.281 BAA, .767 OPS). Even with Sizemore and Choo out, the Indians can put as many as six lefties in their lineup. Despite a return to earth, Cleveland is still a solid 27-18 at home which makes tonight's pick 'em price worth a bet.
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Carlos Carrasco
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Gavin Floyd
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
07.20.2011 07:25 AM
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Milwaukee (Narveson) at Arizona (Saunders) -105 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
Two hittable pitchers slated to start in Arizona tonight with Milwaukee's Chris Narveson taking on Joe Saunders. My focus is first on the Brewers who should field a very right-handed heavy lineup against Saunders. Saunders shows significant R vs. L (.284 BA/.841 OPS vs. righties) and home vs. road splits (4.89 ERA, .309 BAA at home). Last season, the Brewers pounded him for six earned runs in 5.2 innings in pitcher friendly Anaheim. Unlike Saunders, Narveson's seasonal numbers are more in line with who he really is as a pitcher. After a couple of strong outings in April, his ERA is 5.49 over his last 15 starts. I prefer a play on Milwaukee's team total over 4.5, but will also get involved in the game total over 9 with two below average bullpens.
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Joe Saunders
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
07.06.2011 08:15 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cincinnati (Arroyo) at St. Louis (Westbrook) -123 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: St.Louis
There always seems to be something wrong with Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo – on Monday he claimed to have a
mild case of vertigo
. Regardless of pinpointing the exact reason for his struggles let's instead acknowledge that Arroyo can ill afford to not be 100 percent. Last time out, he was pelted for eight runs in 4.2 innings. The start before that he gave up four home runs. He's managed to sprinkle in a couple of decent starts but we're talking about a pitcher who is on pace to allow nearly 50 home runs. St. Louis gets a boost with Albert Pujols expected back in the lineup. The core of the Cardinals' lineup has had a lot of success against Arroyo with Pujols, Rasmus, Berkman, Holliday, Schumaker and Jay hitting a combined .311 with 28 of their 67 hits going for
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Jake Westbrook
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles
06.30.2011 07:56 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
St. Louis (Garcia) at Baltimore (Matusz)
Recommendation: Under 5 1st five innings
Jaime Garcia's numbers suggest he can't succeed on the road. I don't dispute that he's clearly better at home (1.74 ERA in 22 career starts) but he's more than capable of performing well on the highway. When I look at Garcia's game log, I notice that he's allowed more than three earned runs in the just one start this season – home or away. If you eliminate his blow up at Colorado, Garcia's numbers on the road are more than respectable (3.59 ERA). Baltimore's Brian Matusz has struggled since coming off the DL. Despite rumblings that he should be demoted, Buck Showalter said he'll continue to send the promising lefty to the hill. Matusz' velocity has dipped since last season but I noticed it was slightly up his last two outings (10 Ks in 10 IP). I'm going to be proactive here and call for a solid showing from Matusz tonight and key in on the under first five innings.
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St. Louis Cardinals
Jaime Garcia
Baltimore Orioles
Brian Matusz
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