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MLB Handicapping: Cincinnati Reds call up stud lefty Cingrani
04.18.2013 07:20 AM
Printer Friendly
Miami
(Hernandez) at
Cincinnati
(Cingrani) -160 O/U 7.5
With Johnny Cueto on the DL, the Cincinnati Reds called up
highly touted left-hander
Tony Cingrani for a spot start against Miami. Cingrani was a third round pick in 2011. He's posted some unbelievable numbers in the minor leagues (206 IP, 271 Ks, 59 BBs, 1.40 ERA) and currently the third-rated prospect in the organization.
"He's been down there to work on getting secondary stuff over. Most pitchers work off of their fastball," Baker said. "The best pitch in baseball is a well-located fastball. There have been guys that throw everything and can't get [anything] over -- they have eight pitches, all of them bad. Then there are some guys like Mario Soto -- he had two pitches, a changeup and fastball."
Tags:
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Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
04.17.2013 01:49 PM
Rob Veno
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno
Detroit
(Scherzer) at
Seattle
(Hernandez) +100 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Seattle
There’s obviously unlimited backlash against this anemic Seattle Mariners offense as money pours in against Felix Hernandez today. Analysis of the statistical facts early on suggests that this Seattle offense can’t generate enough offense to support Hernandez in this matchup. They could only muster three runs in each of King Felix’s last two starts versus lesser opposing starters Dylan Axelrod (Chicago WS) and Justin Grimm (Texas). Those games resulted in Seattle losses and in the Texas game, Hernandez simply didn’t pitch well enough to win allowing 10 hits (15 total bases) and two walks in 6.2 innings.
After a pair of subpar outings, expect Hernandez to bounce back with a prime effort tonight. With nothing wrong physically or mechanically and Hernandez saying his stuff was pretty good last game and he just made a couple mistakes, it seems he’s ready to go in this spot.
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Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners
Rob Veno
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange gives the scoop on betting baseball
04.17.2013 01:05 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Someone on Twitter sent me a direct message asking how I go about handicapping baseball so I figured I'd share some of my methods here in the blog.
For starters, I try to keep things as simple as possible. Yes, that's a broad statement but there are a ton of factors when it comes to breaking down a baseball game and in my opinion if you try to include them all you inevitably end up with legitimate arguments for both sides – something that can be extremely frustrating. So I’m basically looking to isolate two or three things that I feel with have the biggest impact on the game – one of which is starting pitching which we’ll get to here in a bit.
In terms of price, I tend to stick with short favorites, underdogs, and totals. Value is value whether the price is -105 or -180 but it takes a while for oddsmakers and the betting markets to figure out a lot of these pitchers and teams. In some instances, there is no real mystery – Clayton Kershaw is pretty damn good, and the Houston Astros are awful. But for the first month of so of the season there are a lot of unknowns and as a result a lot of games are mispriced. I see pitchers and teams
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves
04.16.2013 12:16 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Kansas City
(Guthrie) +165 at
Atlanta
(Medlen) O/U 7
Recommendation: Kansas City
I may be in the minority but I think Atlanta's Kris Medlen is going to struggle at times this season. Last season's numbers were outrageous and while Medlen did pitch well, he was also fortunate – very fortunate in fact with a .261 BABIP and 85% left on base rate. He's back at it again this season with a 1.50 ERA through two starts but I thought he struggled some against the Phillies (5 IP, 4 BBs, 3 Ks, 2 ERs) and like a lot of starters was able to cruise past the woeful Marlins. I know the Braves are the hottest team in baseball but to see Medlen as high as -180 vs. an American League team and a viable arm in Jeremy Guthrie seems a little steep. It's early but I like that the Royals have shown a decent amount of plate discipline (5.5 Ks per game vs. 6.7 in 2012). They've hit an AL-low four home runs but the power production will eventually come – it's the offensive approach that will
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Kansas City Royals
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapping: Cleveland's Jimenez once again fighting mechanics
04.16.2013 07:33 AM
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Boston
(Doubront) -108 at
Cleveland
(Jimenez) O/U 8.5
It is typically a positive when pitchers address a mechanical flaw in between starts. Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez has been fighting his mechanics for the last two seasons and looked awful in his last outing (4/8) against New York (4.1 IP, 7 ERs, 3 BBs). According to reports, pitching coach Mickey Callaway
worked with Jimenez
on keeping his front side closed. The betting markets don't appear very confident he'll be able to turn it around. Jimenez opened as a favorite for tonight's game against Boston but the Red Sox have taken nearly all of the early money and are now favored at most offshore sportsbooks.
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Cleveland Indians
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Minnesota Twins
04.13.2013 07:38 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
NY Mets
(Harvey) -130 at
Minnesota
(Diamond) O/U 7
Recommendation: New York
So the word is out on New York's Matt Harvey being one of the premier young arms in the game. In two starts, the big right hander racked up 19 strikeouts and allowed only four hits. I wasn't big fan of the Mets extending him last time out – they were up 7-1 and Harvey was at 95 pitches prior to sending him out for the seventh inning. This is not the type of arm you want to mess with. But for the time being we have a premium arm that in a few more starts will be commanding a premium price. Minnesota sends Scott Diamond to the hill. He had off-season surgery and was brought along slowly during spring training. With cold weather and a pitch count I'm not expecting a top notch performance from Diamond. Also note that shadows have a big impact on early season mid-afternoon games at Target Field. It is expected to be partly cloudy but if the sun peaks in, hitting Harvey could be damn near impossible.
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Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting News: Sabathia trying to get by with diminished fastball
04.12.2013 01:41 PM
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Baltimore
(Gonzalez) at
NY Yankees
(Sabathia) -150 O/U 8
The New York Yankees don't seem all too concerned about CC Sabathia's
significant drop in velocity
. Even Sabathia himself said that it was something you simply cannot control. We agree as Sabathia is getting up there in age and has logged over 2,500 MLB innings. However, at the end of last season, Sabathia's fastball averaged 92-93 mph. His two starts this year were around 90 mph.
Sabathia's Fastball Max-Average
2007: 97.6-93.7
2008: 98.9-93.8
2009: 98.2-94.1
2010: 99.3-93.6
2011: 98.4-93.9
2012: 96.3-92.4
2013: 91.8-90.1
"I'm fine," said Sabathia, who averaged 94.1 mph with his fastball as recently as 2009, and 92.4 last season. "My arm feels fine, I'm healthy. If there was a problem, I'd
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MLB Betting: Video of last night's Dodgers-Padres brawl
04.12.2013 07:59 AM
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For your Friday entertainment, we present last night's Dodgers-Padres brawl. Also be sure to check out the
postgame parking lot pictures
of Matt Kemp and Carlos Quentin barking at one another.
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San Diego Padres
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MLB Gambling: Winter-like conditions for New-York-Minnesota game
04.12.2013 07:51 AM
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NY Mets
(Niese) -110 at
Minnesota
(Worley) O/U 7.5
Don't hold your breath of tonight's Mets-Twins game taking place. The forecast calls for
near-freezing temperatures
and snow.
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MLB Handicapping: Progressive Field radar gun allegedly faulty
04.11.2013 01:00 PM
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If you watched Ubaldo Jimenez's last start against New York you probably spotted two things. First, Jimenez got rocked. Second, he struggled to break 90 mph on the gun – this after hitting 95 in his first start at Toronto. According to reports, the PITCHf/x at Progressive Field was nearly
3 mph slow
–something that Jimenez noticed and tried to overcompensate for during the game. Regardless, even if Jimenez was throwing 91-93 he was a mess mechanically and didn't look like he had one pitch he could go to in a time of need. Just like last season, we've seen good Ubaldo (6 IP, 1 ER vs. Toronto) and bad Ubaldo (4.1 IP, 7 ER vs. New York). If he pitches like he did against the Yankees in his next outing (Sat. vs. Chicago), feel free to fade away.
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Cleveland Indians
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