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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins
06.28.2011 08:31 AM
Printer Friendly
Los Angeles (Lilly) at Minnesota (Duensing)
Recommendation: Under 4 1st five innings
Looking to avoid two of the worst bullpens in baseball and play under the key number of four for tonight’s first five innings between the Dodgers and Twins. Minnesota’s Brian Duensing is a fringe arm but one who is capable of handling weak offenses in pitcher friendly ballparks. In his last two outings against San Francisco and San Diego, Duensing racked up back-to-back quality starts. Duensing's recent success was as a result of what he claimed to be an adjustment with is mechanics. After allowing 15 runs last night, expect him to step up for his team with another quality outing. Prior to his last two starts, Ted Lilly has been solid, averaging six innings and two earned runs per appearance dating back to early May. Off two dismal showings (10 IP, 11 ERs) he’s primed to handle a Minnesota offense that has once against hit this skids with eight runs in its last six games.
Tags:
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ted Lilly
Minnesota Twins
Brian Duensing
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at San Francisco Giants
06.26.2011 07:43 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carmona) at San Francisco (Bumgarner) -135 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
We focused in on the under for Friday's Cleveland-San Francisco matchup and ended up scoring a disappointing push as the Tribe allowed three unearned runs in a 4-3 loss. The philosophy was simple; the Giants are in an offensive slump and the Indians aren't built to hit lefties. Jonathan Sanchez was his normal self in allowing two hits, six walks and six strikeouts in 4.2 innings. Today, we get another lefty in Madison Bumgarner who command-wise is much more trustworthy. Bumgarner made headlines with an 8 ER, 0.1 IP performance last time out against Minnesota. Prior to that he was a quality start machine with 10 straight – he lowered his ERA from 7.79 to 3.21. I expect him to bounce back in a big way today. Cleveland's Fausto Carmona has been a disaster for much of the season and just got finished with a tough stretch of opponents; Colorado, Detroit, NY Yankees, Texas, Toronto and Boston. According to reports,
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Tags:
MLB
Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona
San Francisco Giants
Madison Bumgarner
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at San Francisco Giants
06.24.2011 07:37 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carrasco) at San Francisco (Sanchez) -122 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
The Cleveland Indians are going to be at a disadvantage tonight in San Francisco against lefty Jonathan Sanchez. A lot of key bats for the Tribe come from the left side and show dramatic decline against southpaws (Brantley .234 BA/.574 OPS; Choo .239/.593; Sizemore .150/.614). Travis Hafner is also not expected in the line-up (no DH); one of Cleveland's top hitters on the season when healthy. Sanchez continues to shoot himself in the foot with the amount of free passes he issues (53 BBs in 85 IP). Off a rough outing in Oakland, I expect him to bounce back with a solid effort at home. The Giants are in a big slump with the bats, scoring just 16 runs in their last seven games. A closer look shows that of the 16 runs, only 10 were of the "earned" variety. Cleveland Carlos Carrasco is in fine form with three straight quality starts. Against a light hitting group, he's poised for another strong outing. Favorable
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MLB
Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco
San Francisco Giants
Jonathan Sanchez
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins
06.19.2011 07:28 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Diego (Moseley) at Minnesota (Liriano) -147 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under
As long as key numbers like 8 and 7.5 remain on Minnesota games at Target Field, I'll be betting unders on a regular basis. In Game 1 of the series, both the Padres and Twins threw arguably their weakest starters and it resulted in 11 total runs. But yesterday, with the class of pitching up a notch (Baker, Stauffer), both offenses struggled with 15 strikeouts, 10 hits and one run. Tonight, we have two solid starters on the hill and a total of 7.5. San Diego's Dustin Moseley was skipped in the rotation after dislocating his left shoulder while swinging a bat. Reports indicate that he'll be good to go. His peripheral stats show that opposing teams are going to put the bat on the ball but he should be safe against this Twins lineup, especially with lefties Kubel, Morneau and Span out with various injuries. A month ago, Francisco Liriano was a bet against pitcher; even in tossing a no-hitter, he didn't seem right. But he’s
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MLB
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
San Diego Padres
Dustin Moseley
Andrew Lange
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MLB Interleague Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians
06.17.2011 07:11 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh (Correia) at Cleveland (Tomlin) -140 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
There was an expected regression from Cleveland's Josh Tomlin though perhaps not as much as we've seen. Tomlin has allowed 22 earned runs over his last 23 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has been fine (16:2) it is just that he's simply not fooling anyone anymore (39 hits). Pitching to contact is a fine philosophy but when you are right-handed and tossing in the mid-80's, you walk a very fine line. Pittsburgh's Kevin Correia is similar to Tomlin in that he's managed to put up solid seasonal numbers despite relatively average stuff. But here's a guy with a 4.48 career ERA despite over half of his innings coming at AT&T and Petco parks. And if we look closely, though not as dramatic, we are starting to see a Tomlin-like regression. Over his last seven starts, Correia’s produced much more realistic numbers (43 IP, 4.60 ERA, 50 hits, 20 Ks, .765 OPS). The Indians have really struggled offensively – something
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Kevin Correia
Cleveland Indians
Josh Tomlin
Andrew Lange
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MLB Day Game Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
06.16.2011 06:55 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago (Buehrle) -110 at Minnesota (Blackburn) O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
Getaway baseball with Mark Buehrle on the hill typically grabs my attention. A total of 8 in Target Field does as well. Buehrle has been his old consistent self of late, allowing 2-3 earned runs and tossing 6-7 innings virtually every outing (eight straight quality starts). He made two starts at Target Field last season and had little trouble, allowing just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. He'll face a Minnesota lineup that last night looked like a Triple-A team. I respect how creative the Twins have gotten offensively – hit and runs, bunting, aggressive on the base paths. They stole six bases last night which played a big role in them scoring four runs. That likely won't happen today with Buehrle on the hill; he's allowed only two this season. Nick Blackburn has been in solid form as well, allowing more than two earned runs just one in his last eight starts. He understands how to pitch in Target Field with a 2.97
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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Mark Buehrle
Minnesota Twins
Nick Blackburn
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
06.10.2011 08:14 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carmona) at New York (Nova) -155 O/U 10
Recommendation: Over
The Cleveland Indians have really struggled offensively of late with just 2.9 runs per game over their last 16 contests. But a closer look shows that a lot of those struggles came against left-handed pitching. Of those 16 games, six were against left-handed starters and the Tribe produced only four runs in those games. Against righties, while not outstanding, the numbers were much better (4.3 runs per game). This R/L spilt is showcased in their overall season numbers (.421 SLG, .749 OPS vs. righties; .376, .691 vs. lefties).
Tonight, Cleveland travels to New York to face right-hander Ivan Nova. The Indians have the potential to put a lot of lefties in their lineup (Jack Hannahan, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley and Travis Buck). Nova hasn't been that bad (4.50 ERA) but his peripheral numbers (26 BBs, 29 Ks in 60 IP) suggest he could struggle tonight. Lefties
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MLB
Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona
New York Yankees
Ivan Nova
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
06.07.2011 07:32 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Minnesota (Liriano) at Cleveland (Carrasco)
Recommendation: Minnesota Team Total Over 4
Yesterday we keyed in on Minnesota's team total as they got to Cleveland's Josh Tomlin for six runs in six innings. Today, I'm going right back to the well with a similar arm on the hill in Carlos Carrasco. Like Tomlin, Carrasco doesn't miss a lot of bats and has low strikeout numbers (32 in 57.1 IP). Last night, Minnesota was able to get five lefties in the lineup and I would expect the same thing tonight with Carrasco showing dramatic splits (.214 BAA/.581 OPS vs. righties; .368 BAA/.958 OPS vs. lefties). I'm not sure what exactly we'll get from Minnesota starter Francisco Liriano in his first start off the DL which puts me on the team total over.
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MLB
Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting Recommendation: Minnesota at Cleveland
06.06.2011 07:10 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Minnesota (Baker) at Cleveland (Tomlin)
Recommendation: Minnesota Team Total Over 3.5
Don't look now but the Minnesota Twins are on a roll with the bats. With a makeshift lineup loaded with no-name players the Twins are in the midst of a 17-game stretch where they've averaged over five runs per game. This past weekend, they unloaded on Kansas City for 26 runs in a four-game sweep. Tonight they have a great opportunity to continue this offensive surge as they travel to Cleveland to face Josh Tomlin. Tomlin is a guy we've had pegged for a regresses ion and we have seen just that over his last two starts with 18 hits and 10 earned runs in 12 innings. During Minnesota's run, they've hit right-handers hard with four runs or more in nine of 12 contests. It doesn't happen often, but we'll look to play Minnesota over 3.5 runs.
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MLB
Minnesota Twins
Scott Baker
Cleveland Indians
Josh Tomlin
Andrew Lange
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Sunday MLB Free Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
06.05.2011 08:12 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago (Zambrano) at St. Louis (Carpenter)
Recommendation: Chicago +145 5-inning
My angle on this play is simple: Chris Carpenter is not right. Rather than try and figure out exactly what is wrong, let's just focus in on the reality of Carpenter's numbers. In his last seven starts (45 IP), Carpenter allowed 67 hits. His ERA nearly hit 5.00 prior to back-to-back starts against weak hitting San Francisco and San Diego and opposing batters are hitting nearly .300 on the season. In the two or three times I've visually seen him throw, his command has been completely lacking with hitters no longer willing to chase out of the zone. Last time he faced the Cubs, he was somewhat lucky after surrendering 13 hits in seven innings yet allowing only four runs. As bad as a baseball team as the Cubs are, they can swing the bats some (.270/.720) and have hit Carpenter fairly hard over the last two years. For Chicago, Carlos Zambrano has done a good job of flying under the radar in the betting market. Dating back to
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MLB
Chicago Cubs
Carlos Zambrano
St. Louis Cardinals
Chris Carpenter
Andrew Lange
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