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MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Francisco at Philadelphia
07.27.2011 10:59 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
San Francisco (Cain) at Philadelphia (Hamels) -168 O/U 7
Recommendation: Philadelphia
If you got down without ‘listed pitchers’ on my Phillies recommendation last night, you cashed a right side winner at a bargain price. Unfortunately, if you listed your pitchers, your wager got cancelled or you were forced to lay a much higher price to support Philadelphia. That being said, many of the same factors are in play this evening, and we’ve got a bigger piece of the puzzle working in our favor that makes this big chalk price worth laying.
I’ll start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up:
In general, MLB lines don’t respect situational factors very often. Instead, bettors tend to concentrate on starting pitching matchups more than any other factor. But this is one spot where there are legitimate motivational issues that favor Philadelphia far more than this moneyline would indicate; a major revenge spot for a team that lost
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Tags:
MLB
San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain
Philadelphia Phillies
Cole Hamels
Teddy Covers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
07.26.2011 11:23 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Chicago (Dempster) at Milwaukee (Narveson) -143 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
To say that Ryan Dempster has owned this Brewers lineup is something of an understatement. Dempster threw seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball against Milwaukee when he faced them last month, cashing a 1-0 decision for the Cubs. He faced the Brewers five times last year. He shut them down five times, going 4-0 in those starts with a 2.23 ERA. His career numbers at Miller Park mirror those types of results: 84 IP, 2.35 ERA, 213 BAA. That’s certainly not a short sample size! Facing a Brewers lineup that produced 1, 2, 4, 0 and 2 runs in regulation of their last five games (all Unders), there’s no reason to expect anything but another strong showing from Dempster tonight!
It’s a similar story for Chris Narveson, who matches up extremely well against a Cubs lineup that simply can’t hit lefties. Chicago, as a team, is batting .189 against southpaws since
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MLB
Chicago Cubs
Ryan Dempster
Milwaukee Brewers
Chris Narveson
Teddy Covers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at New York Yankees
07.22.2011 01:47 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Oakland (Cahill) at New York (Hughes)
Recommendation: New York R/L -1.5 +110
The Yankees have enjoyed ‘mismatch’ type results in every recent meeting with Oakland. In three games at the Coliseum earlier in the year, the Bronx bombers won by a combined score of 19-5, cashing three run-line tickets in the process. New York and Oakland played ten times last year. The Yankees went 9-1 in those ten games, winning eight times by multiple runs, cashing one run-line bet after the next. Clearly, there’s a class difference between these two squads, and just as clearly, the preferred way to support the Bronx Bombers is at a plus price on the run-line.
We can expect another one-sided affair tonight. Oakland’s Trevor Cahill won 18 games last year and was a serious Cy Young contender. This year he’s been almost as good, entering tonight’s game with a rock solid 3.16 ERA. But Cahill has not matched up well with New
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New York Yankees
Phil Hughes
Oakland A's
Trevor Cahill
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
07.18.2011 12:49 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Cincinnati (Willis) at Pittsburgh (Morton) -105 O/U 9
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
We’ve seen a late pitching change in this matchup, with Charlie Morton getting the nod for Pittsburgh after James McDonald was scratched. Morton has been inconsistent for a good portion of the campaign, but he’s notched nine quality starts for the season, including two dominant performances against the Cincinnati lineup that he’ll face tonight.
The results don’t lie. In two previous starts against the Reds this year, Morton threw a complete game both times, allowing only a single run on 10 hits in 18 innings of work against Dusty Baker’s squad. He threw a pair of quality starts in three tries against Cincinnati last year, despite the fact that he suffered through a truly miserable campaign. The Reds lineup isn’t hitting right now, producing only four runs in two games against St. Louis and their vulnerable bullpen over the weekend. And the Pirates have dominated this series,
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Charlie Morton
Cincinnati Reds
Dontrelle Willis
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MLB Free Betting Pick: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
07.14.2011 09:27 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New York Yankees (Colon) at Toronto Blue Jays (Reyes)
Recommendation: OVER
Many bettors are shy about taking Overs immediately following the All Star Break, expecting the pitchers to have the better rhythm than the hitters following their only vacation of the entire season. That wiseguy reluctance to bet Overs on this particular day gives us a very reasonable number to bet Over as post-break play resumes tonight.
This is not a matchup of aces, by any stretch of the imagination. Bartolo Colon put up impressive first half numbers, but his 90 innings of work so far in 2011 is his most since 2007. He’s largely been a second half non-factor since 2005. We can expect a regression from this first half overachiever. Considering that Toronto bashed him for six runs in six innings of work the last time he faced them, it’s reasonable to predict continues offensive success from the Jays tonight.
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New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
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MLB Betting Game Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
07.07.2011 01:00 PM
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Arizona (Saunders) +130 at St. Louis (McClellan) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Arizona
My clients and I cashed an underdog ticket supporting Joe Saunders in his last outing; a seven-inning, two-run gem at Oakland. This is nothing new or different for Saunders in recent weeks. He threw seven innings of one-run ball at Detroit and seven innings of two-run ball at KC in his two previous starts. In fact, seven of his nine road outings this season have resulted in quality starts – six innings or more of work, three earned runs or less allowed.
Arizona is 6-3 in Saunders’ last nine trips to the hill overall. Plus, the D-backs are 17-8 in their last 25 on the highway and 12-6 in their last 18 as underdogs of +110 or higher; offering consistent plus price returns for their supporters. Coming off a poor showing to close out their series in Milwaukee yesterday, look for a strong bounceback effort from Kirk Gibson’s squad tonight.
The Cardinals lost a 14-inning
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St. Louis Cardinals
Kyle McClellan
Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Saunders
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
07.05.2011 11:23 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
NY Mets (Pelfrey) at LA Dodgers (Lilly) -125 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over
The Mets were no-hit for five innings yesterday and then pounded out five runs in the final four frames. Manager Terry Collins: “That’s the only way we’ve played. Guys have just stepped up.” New York has now scored 59 runs in its last six road games. They’ve been hammering lefties like LA’s Ted Lilly; hitting .331 against southpaws in their last ten games and .32 points higher against opposing lefties than opposing righties on the highway for the season.
Meanwhile, Lilly had his start pushed back a day because of an aching elbow. Based on this quote, don’t expect that extra day’s rest to be a difference maker here. Lilly: “It’s been off and on for a while, but I don’t think (my elbow is) necessarily why I haven’t been pitching well. Some of it is location. It all goes together because you don’t have the normal feel of your pitches.” Lilly
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New York Mets
Mike Pelfrey
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ted Lilly
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MLB Betting Free Play: Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox
06.24.2011 11:54 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Washington (Zimmermann) +105 at Chicago (Jackson) O/U 8
Recommendation: Washington
The Washington Nationals are still the hottest team in baseball, even without Jim Riggleman in the dugout. Despite Riggleman’s shocking resignation yesterday, the Nats are poised to win for the 12th time in 13 games as they travel to Chicago tonight. Outfielder Jason Werth, talking about Riggleman’s departure: “It’s not going to change anything in here. We’re the ones that have been winning the ballgames, so we’re going to keep going.”
The Nats have an excellent chance to continue their winning ways tonight with Jordan Zimmermann on the hill. Zimmermann is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his last four starts. He’s thrown nine consecutive quality starts, showing that he’s fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that threatened to derail his career two years ago. The Nationals are 6-3 in those last nine starts, and two of the losses came by identical 2-1 scores
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Washington Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann
Chicago White Sox
Edwin Jackson
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers
06.21.2011 10:23 AM
Teddy Covers
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Detroit (Scherzer) -115 at Los Angeles (Billingsley) O/U 7
Recommendation: Detroit
My clients and I have already cashed a pair of tickets betting Chad Billingsley over the total this month. Tonight, the preferred way to bet against Billingsley is to focus on a side wager.
Billingsley is struggling mightily these days, with only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill. He hasn’t recorded a single out in the sixth inning in any of his last three starts, with a 2.78 WHIP and an ERA over 11.00 during that span. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down. Billingsley has allowed 10 or more hits only four times in 145 career starts. Two of those times have come in the last month. The Dodgers are just 3-6 in his last nine trips to the hill. Facing a Tigers lineup that was red hot before getting shut down by Clayton Kershaw last night, expect continued struggles from Billingsley.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are winning consistently
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Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chad Billingsley
Teddy Covers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
06.08.2011 09:53 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Arizona (Duke) at Pittsburgh (Maholm) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
The surprising Pirates lineup is absolutely torching opposing pitchers right now. Pittsburgh is 5-1 to the over in its last six ball games largely thanks to an offense that has pounded out 36 runs. The Pirates have been beating southpaws during this stretch, with wins over Chris Capuano, Cole Hamels and Doug Davis in recent contests.
That’s bad news for Zack Duke, returning to Pittsburgh for the first time since his six-year stint with the organization ended this past offseason. Duke has pitched reasonably well at PNC Park in his career, but this Pirates lineup is poised to take advantage of the soft tosser tonight. Washington roughed Duke up for 10 hits and four runs in just five innings of work in his last outing, and we can expect continued struggles today. Arizona’s bullpen behind Duke got lit up last night and has shown dramatic signs of cracking in recent games after an extended run of excellence.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Zach Duke
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Maholm
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