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Odds for MLB Postseason Awards
06.10.2011 01:04 PM
Printer Friendly
The Greek has posted odds on the various MLB Postseason Awards (see chart below). Justin Verlander (+175) is favored to win the American League Cy Young Award. Interesting that they are offering odds on Cleveland's Josh Tomlin yet CC Sabathia, CJ Wilson and Alexi Ogando are nowhere to be seen. Those three, especially Sabathia, would seem like logical contenders with their respective teams expected to be playoff contenders. Jose Bautista and Adrian Gonzalez are co-favorites (+175) to win the AL MVP. In the National League, it was somewhat of a surprise to see Jair Jurrjens as the favorite (+250) over Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum. Jurrjens' velocity and strikeout rate are down compared to his career numbers which suggests he's
been a bit lucky
thus far. Cole Hamels didn't make the list though would present an interesting "field bet" with an 8-2 record and 2.58 ERA. Ryan Braun (+250) is
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MLB Handicapping: Yankees pitching slated for regression
06.10.2011 10:24 AM
Printer Friendly
Joba Chamberlain's impending Tommy John surgery not only hurts New York's bullpen depth but allows us to break down exactly what we can expect from the team moving forward. To date, the Yankees have exceeded expectations on the mound. The team's ERA (3.68) is good for fourth in the American League and the bullpen has been dominant (2.93, 1st AL). But in analyzing the staff, it becomes very apparent that we can expect serious regressions in the not so distant future.
Bartolo Colon
- Even if you buy into Colon's resurgence, he hasn't tossed more than 100 innings since 2005. If healthy (a big if!), he's capable of giving the team quality innings but at this stage in his career, his track record suggests his 3.39 ERA won't hold up.
Freddy Garcia
- Similar situation to Colon; Garcia enjoyed a three-year “hiatus" of 129 innings in three seasons (2007-09). Last year he threw 152 innings for the White Sox and broke down after the All-Star break (5.10 ERA, 60 IP, 10 HRs, 29Ks).
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New York Yankees
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
06.10.2011 08:14 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carmona) at New York (Nova) -155 O/U 10
Recommendation: Over
The Cleveland Indians have really struggled offensively of late with just 2.9 runs per game over their last 16 contests. But a closer look shows that a lot of those struggles came against left-handed pitching. Of those 16 games, six were against left-handed starters and the Tribe produced only four runs in those games. Against righties, while not outstanding, the numbers were much better (4.3 runs per game). This R/L spilt is showcased in their overall season numbers (.421 SLG, .749 OPS vs. righties; .376, .691 vs. lefties).
Tonight, Cleveland travels to New York to face right-hander Ivan Nova. The Indians have the potential to put a lot of lefties in their lineup (Jack Hannahan, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley and Travis Buck). Nova hasn't been that bad (4.50 ERA) but his peripheral numbers (26 BBs, 29 Ks in 60 IP) suggest he could struggle tonight. Lefties
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MLB
Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona
New York Yankees
Ivan Nova
Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting Alert: Umpire crew combines for amazing trends
06.09.2011 01:33 PM
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Baseball bettors are already well aware of various umpire reputations – Hirschbeck Unders, McClelland Overs to name two. But what about umpiring crews? We uncovered some remarkable results out of the foursome of Tom Hallion, Phil Cuzzi, Bill Miller and James Hoye. For starters, every guy has trended towards the under for his career with a combined tally of 55.6%. Over the last two years though is where we really start to see strong numbers: 112-194 O/U 63.4%. And this year, betting the under with any of these four gentlemen behind the plate would have netted you around +16 units (11-29 O/U 72.5%). Obviously umpires chit-chat with one or two perhaps influencing the others. There could also be weekly contests to see who can call the quickest game without getting busted by QuesTec. Either way, bettors need to be aware of where
Crew P
is located (@ Houston tonight). Note that last year, all four were with different crews (Hoye was with Hirschbeck!).
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Scientist breaks down weather patterns at Petco Park
06.09.2011 12:12 PM
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Good in-depth explanation of
San Diego's weather
and how it can effect games at Petco Park.
“In the simplest terms, when you’re close to the water, there’s more moisture in the air and the air is cooler,” said Miller. “The air becomes less dense with water in it, lighter than typical air molecules, so the ball can fly farther in the moister air. But when the marine layer moves in, like a big blob of cold air pouring over the stadium walls and onto the field, the air is more dense and harder for the ball to go through.
“Those two effects compete against each other, and depending on which one is winning at the time, the ball goes farther or not as far when it’s hit.”
“If that cutoff of the sea breeze always occurs during the game, there’s a higher chance that it will work to the slight advantage of the visiting team, because
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MLB
San Diego Padres
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
06.09.2011 09:59 AM
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New York (Niese) at Milwaukee (Gallardo)
Recommendation: Milwaukee Run-Line -1.5 +130
We’re on a nice profit-producing 4-0 MLB run this week and chipped-in a free Fairway forecast yesterday with another plus price run line winner on the San Francisco Giants.
Today we have a solid situation to support a hot and focused team in the American League that should produce a solid win. That 20* Big Drive play is
available for purchase at Sportsmemo.com
.
For our free selection, let’s chip-in another run-line play today in support of the Milwaukee Brewers (35-27) and their staff ace Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers are just 1.5 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and playing the best ball in the National League going 7-3 their last 10 games. The Brewers also happen to have the best home record in the National League at 22-8, as Miller Park ranks as the top hit-producing ballpark in the National
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Milwaukee Brewers
Yovani Gallardo
New York Mets
Jonathan Niese
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Baseball Handicapping: Struggles continue for Hochevar
06.09.2011 08:40 AM
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Toronto (Romero) -130 at Kansas City (Hochevar) O/U 8.5
Not that Kansas City's Luke Hochevar has ever amounted to much but we've seen a serious decline in his numbers, especially over his last three starts. Even with last year split in two due to injury, Hochevar managed a 2-1 K-to-BB ratio and fanned a respectable 76 batters in 103 IP. This year, he has shown little ability to miss bats with only 39 punch outs in 84 innings. In 2010, he averaged 8.7 swinging strikes per game but that number has plummeted to 6.7 this season. Over his last three starts, Hochevar has allowed 17 earned runs with six walks and only five strikeouts. It didn't come against the greatest of competition (Minnesota, LA Angels and Baltimore) either. He's shown dramatic home/road splits throughout his career (4.45 ERA/1.32 WHIP, .264 BAA at home; 6.97 ERA, .157 WHIP, .294 BAA on the road). Note that he's been a bit lucky this season with 86 hits allowed in 84 innings (.263 BAbip). And eight of his 13 starts have come against American
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MLB
Kansas City Royals
Luke Hochevar
Toronto Blue Jays
Ricky Romero
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
06.08.2011 09:53 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Arizona (Duke) at Pittsburgh (Maholm) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
The surprising Pirates lineup is absolutely torching opposing pitchers right now. Pittsburgh is 5-1 to the over in its last six ball games largely thanks to an offense that has pounded out 36 runs. The Pirates have been beating southpaws during this stretch, with wins over Chris Capuano, Cole Hamels and Doug Davis in recent contests.
That’s bad news for Zack Duke, returning to Pittsburgh for the first time since his six-year stint with the organization ended this past offseason. Duke has pitched reasonably well at PNC Park in his career, but this Pirates lineup is poised to take advantage of the soft tosser tonight. Washington roughed Duke up for 10 hits and four runs in just five innings of work in his last outing, and we can expect continued struggles today. Arizona’s bullpen behind Duke got lit up last night and has shown dramatic signs of cracking in recent games after an extended run of excellence.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Zach Duke
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Maholm
Teddy Covers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington National at San Francisco Giants
06.08.2011 09:16 AM
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Submitted by
Washington (Maya) at San Francisco (Cain)
Recommendation: San Francisco R/L -1.5 +130
Fairway’s faithful followers were rewarded with a 3-0 MLB sweep on Tuesday with some versatility at the plate. We cashed a 5-inning play on the Diamondbacks, a run-line winner on the Reds 8-2 and late night underdog winner on the Nationals. Today we’ll come back with a Free Fairway Forecast on the San Francisco Giants +130 on the run-line over the Washington Nationals.
The Giants can be a bit risky on the run line with their offense lacking some pop, but it shouldn’t take many runs today as I expect San Francisco pitcher Matt Cain to hold the Washington bats in check. Daytime baseball at AT&T Park can play a little differently as the ball travels better. Cain is most familiar with the park and pitching some solid ball again for the Giants while Washington starts a little-used fill-in starter.
The World Champion Giants (34-27) are in first place in the NL West but fell to 16-10
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MLB
San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain
Washington Nationals
Yunesky Maya
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Bettors continue to cash on Cincinnati Reds over the total at home
06.08.2011 07:04 AM
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Chicago (Dempster) at Cincinnati (Arroyo) -140 O/U 9
Cincinnati is in the midst of its fifth homestand of the season – all five of which have trended heavily over the total (O/Us: 4-2, 4-3, 4-1-1, 5-1-1, 5-2-1). Hot or cold weather, good pitching, "under" umpires...it doesn't seem to matter as Great American Ballpark continues to produce huge profits for over bettors. Overall, the Reds are 22-9-3 O/U at home including four straight.
Today is a true getaway day as Cincinnati leaves for San Francisco and Chicago bolts up to Philadelphia. Doug Eddings is behind the plate and has a strong track record of unders (57% last five seasons). And the Cubs are missing two of their better bats with Alfonso Soriano on the DL and Starlin Castro expected to be out of the lineup. Those three factors suggest this afternoon's game could be lower scoring.
But before we can pull the trigger, the starting pitchers obviously need to be considered. Unfortunately, Ryan Dempster and Bronson
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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Bronson Arroyo
Chicago Cubs
Ryan Dempster
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