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NHL Handicapping: The Eastern Conference playoff race heats up

04.10.2013     07:35 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
We're down to the last 7-10 games in the regular season for most teams and like everyone expected the standings are a logjam. A lot can happen here in the next two weeks from top to bottom.

Pittsburgh, Boston, and Montreal look to have the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 seeds locked up. Pittsburgh will more than likely claim the top spot with Montreal and Boston fighting over the No. 2 and No. 4 seeds. In my mind, with two games in hand and just one point back, the Bruins look to have the inside track as the second spot.

The No. 3 seed goes to the Southeast Division winner – a race this is completely up for grabs despite Washington’s current run. The Capitals are 9-1-1 in their last 11 games, but despite the two-point lead and game in hand they hold over Winnipeg, this race is far from over. In fact Winnipeg's schedule is so easy down the stretch that they may be able to slide into the eighth spot if they are unable to win the Southeast. Washington ends the season playing competition (not counting the game versus Winnipeg) with a combined record of 143-129 (.526) while Winnipeg faces a majority of home games versus subpar teams that combine for a record of Read more

Tags: NHL Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators

04.09.2013     10:11 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
St. Louis -125 at Nashville O/U 5
Recommendation: St. Louis

The Blues come into Nashville tonight riding a four-game winning streak and are in sole possession of the seventh playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They’ve finally buckled down and played solid defensive hockey which was the key ingredient in last season’s success.  Forward Patrik Berglund said, "The way we're back winning these close games, we're back to playing the way we were last season."  That could spell major trouble for other Western Conference teams. St. Louis has given up just 20 goals in its last 12 games which led to an 8-4 record.  Nashville on the other hand has taken itself out of the playoff race by losing six of its last seven games.  Scoring has been a big problem for the Predators all season long, netting just 2.4 goals a game which ranks 27th in the NHL.  Big edge tonight to the Blues who should get plenty of offensive chances on their PP attempts as their #6th ranked power play looks to feast on the #27th ranked Nashville PK.  St. Louis has found a way to win these tight games, and I expect another one this Read more

Tags: NHL St. Louis Blues Nashville Predators Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Play: Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

04.02.2013     09:32 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh -240 O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Under

Pittsburgh has won an incredible 15 straight games and they are doing it on the defensive end.  A team that has always had the offensive firepower to dominate the opposition, the Penguins are finding ways to win defensively as well.  They have recorded three straight shutouts and have gone Under the total nine of their last ten games.  Despite their ability to plug anyone into the lineup and get the same results, the recent injury to Sidney Crosby (broken jaw and out indefinitely) could prove costly.  The trades for Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow up front last week will undoubtedly help offensively and defensively (both are solid two-way players), but I don't expect much chemistry between them and their new teammates right off the bat.  Buffalo comes into Pittsburgh losing its last four games and with a big "for sale" sign on their roster.  I'd be surprised if the Sabres didn't move more players before the 3pm EST Wednesday trade deadline.  That being said, this is still a team with a ton of pride and a lot to play for.  I generally like to Read more

Tags: NHL Buffalo Sabres Pittsburgh Penguins Sammy P

Sportsmemo Handicappers react to Pittsburgh's trade for Jarome Iginla

03.28.2013     11:06 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Sammy P weigh in Pittsburgh acquiring Calgary's Jarome Iginla.

Ian Cameron’s take…

This COULD be the trade that puts Pittsburgh over the top. Hard not to think of them as the team to beat for the Stanley Cup after landing Iginla. It was hilarious watching all the TSN Hockey Insiders last night go on and on about Iginla going to Boston only for Calgary GM Jay Feaster to pull the rug out from under everyone and ship him off to Pittsburgh.

Calgary got a couple blue chip prospects and Pittsburgh's 1st round pick in 2013 but this move proves it's Cup or bust for the Penguins. Dan Bylsma has some tough choices to make in regards to where they put Iginla. You would assume he'd go on their top line but Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz have developed great chemistry and have been dominant. Bylsma may not wish to upset the apple cart there so Iginla may actually be slotted on their second line with Brenden Morrow (and eventually Evgeni Malkin when he comes back from injury) but then where do you put James Neal who is your third right winger after Dupuis and Iginla? All part

Read more

Tags: NHL Ian Cameron Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks

03.26.2013     11:03 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Calgary at Chicago -185 O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Under

As a bettor, I put a ton of stock into watching games and seeing trends develop in their infancy.  There is no substitute for understanding the intricacies of a sport and getting ahead of the betting markets.  In a game tonight where a lot of the public and trends point towards the over, I see plenty of value and reason to look the other way.  Chicago is coming off of a tough 5-4 loss last night against Los Angeles and will certainly be looking to shore up the defense against offensively challenged Calgary.  This will be the sixth time this season Chicago will be playing a back-to-back with four of the previous five games going under the total.  Note also that these two teams played a 3-2 shootout game earlier in the season.  I liked what I saw defensively from Calgary last game, and I'm willing to step out and beat the marketplace going forward.  Look for Calgary to do enough in goal and on the back end tonight to keep this number under 5.5 on the road.

Sammy P 20* NHL Power Play Side Read more

Tags: NHL Calgary Flames Chicago Blackhawks Sammy P

NHL Gambling: Los Angeles Kings continue to trend OVER the total

03.18.2013     03:12 PM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Phoenix at Los Angeles -175 O/U 5

A week ago on the Sportsmemo Podcast and in some free play analysis I mentioned the tremendous over-the-total run the Los Angeles Kings were having.  For the month of March, the Kings have scored 34 goals and surrendered 29 goals – that comes out to 63 goals in 9 games for an average of 7 goals per game. All nine games were lined with totals of 5 (with minimal juice) and all but one went over the total. We see the same "asleep at the wheel" posting tonight as they face the Phoenix Coyotes with most sportsbooks offering 5ov-120.  Oddsmakers have yet to catch on but it’s only a matter of time before they start offering 5.5.

Follow me on Twitter @Sammy_P_Sports

Tags: NHL Los Angeles Kings Phoenix Coyotes Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Kings at Phoenix Coyotes

03.12.2013     09:56 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Los Angeles at Phoenix -120 O/U 5
Recommendation: Over

Los Angeles comes into Phoenix tonight playing tremendous hockey.  They are starting to display the same winning qualities that won them the Stanley Cup last season.  They've gone 9-2 in their last 11 games and have climbed back into the Western Conference playoff race.  They have been getting the job done offensively getting contributions all throughout their lineup which has led to a major shift towards the Over for this club.  Five of their last six games have gone Over the total.  Phoenix has seen similar Over trends lately as well as they've gone 6-2 to the Over in the past eight games.  These teams played a 4-2 game earlier in the season and I expect more of the same tonight.  Los Angeles is playing the back end of a back-to-back situation here after a grueling 3-1 win on its home ice last night versus the Flames.  I see no reason for either of these teams to slow down tonight.  It may be only a matter of time before we see some 5.5 totals pop up in Kings games, and I feel very comfortable with this lined at 5 with minimal juice in a situation Read more

Tags: NHL Los Angeles Kings Phoenix Coyotes Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings

03.05.2013     10:42 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Colorado at Detroit -160 O/U 5.5
Recommendation Under

Colorado comes in to Detroit tonight with a full lineup.  Injuries really hurt this Avalanche team early in the season, but with the signing of Ryan O'Reilly, and Gabriel Landeskog getting healthy, they look to make a push in the second half of the season.  They'll have a tough time tonight against a Detroit team that had been playing phenomenal defense as of late.  Detroit has given up just 7 goals in its last 5 games and went Under the total in 5 of its last 6 games.  Colorado sports the 24th ranked offense at just 2.45 gpg which should give the Red Wings a chance to pad their defensive stats even more.  Colorado has seen some defensive improvement of late as well giving up 14 regulation goals in 6 games.  This is a very tough stretch of games for the Avalanche in the next week and I think we'll see some very simple hockey from them on the road tonight.  Best place to look here is Under the total.

Tags: NHL Colorado Avalanche Detroit Red Wings Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

02.26.2013     09:39 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Carolina at Washington -130 O/U 5.5
Recommendation Washington

Carolina travels to Washington tonight in a battle of Southeast division foes. The story here is the breakout game from Alex Ovechkin, where he netted a hat trick and an assist in a 5-1 win over New Jersey Saturday night.  Is this the spark the star forward needed to turn his and Washington's season around?  Any time you give a goal scorer like Ovechkin confidence it could spell disaster for opponents.  The Capitals have won four of their last six games and did it with the NHL's second best power play which scores at a 28.8% clip.  They should have plenty of special teams chances tonight against a Carolina team ranked 24th on the PK killing off just 76.8% of its penalties.  Despite a decent start, Carolina has lost three of its last four games and comes into Washington tonight without a lot of depth.  The Jeff Skinner injury has really kept them from being as offensively explosive as they are capable of and throw in the injuries to Gleason, McBain, and Pitkanen and the Hurricanes have been shorthanded from the better part of February.  These are two teams Read more

Tags: NHL Carolina Hurricanes Washington Capitals Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: New York Rangers at Boston Bruins

02.12.2013     11:02 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
NY Rangers +120 at Boston O/U 5
Recommendation: New York

The New York Rangers face the Boston Bruins for the third time this season after they split the first two meetings.  Rangers head coach John Tortorella recently shook up the lines and it has paid off with plenty of goals coming from outside the big three of Nash, Gaborik, and Richards the last two games. Boston is a very tough place to play, and this is a very good and deep team, but I see it as a tough spot for the Bruins as decent size favorites.  This line is a bit too inflated and we find good value backing New York in a situation that sees Boston in a "sandwich" game.  Boston played in Buffalo Sunday night, and they play in Buffalo Friday night after tonight’s home tilt.  I never like to back a team that comes back home to play just one game before going back onto the road. Boston is just 8-12 (all 20 games as a home favorite) dating back to the 2009-10 season in this situation.  This is a very good opportunity to grab a live dog in a special situational spot.

Tags: NHL New York Rangers Boston Bruins Sammy P


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