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NHL Gambling: Los Angeles Kings continue to trend OVER the total

03.18.2013     03:12 PM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Phoenix at Los Angeles -175 O/U 5

A week ago on the Sportsmemo Podcast and in some free play analysis I mentioned the tremendous over-the-total run the Los Angeles Kings were having.  For the month of March, the Kings have scored 34 goals and surrendered 29 goals – that comes out to 63 goals in 9 games for an average of 7 goals per game. All nine games were lined with totals of 5 (with minimal juice) and all but one went over the total. We see the same "asleep at the wheel" posting tonight as they face the Phoenix Coyotes with most sportsbooks offering 5ov-120.  Oddsmakers have yet to catch on but it’s only a matter of time before they start offering 5.5.

Follow me on Twitter @Sammy_P_Sports

Tags: NHL Los Angeles Kings Phoenix Coyotes Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Kings at Phoenix Coyotes

03.12.2013     09:56 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Los Angeles at Phoenix -120 O/U 5
Recommendation: Over

Los Angeles comes into Phoenix tonight playing tremendous hockey.  They are starting to display the same winning qualities that won them the Stanley Cup last season.  They've gone 9-2 in their last 11 games and have climbed back into the Western Conference playoff race.  They have been getting the job done offensively getting contributions all throughout their lineup which has led to a major shift towards the Over for this club.  Five of their last six games have gone Over the total.  Phoenix has seen similar Over trends lately as well as they've gone 6-2 to the Over in the past eight games.  These teams played a 4-2 game earlier in the season and I expect more of the same tonight.  Los Angeles is playing the back end of a back-to-back situation here after a grueling 3-1 win on its home ice last night versus the Flames.  I see no reason for either of these teams to slow down tonight.  It may be only a matter of time before we see some 5.5 totals pop up in Kings games, and I feel very comfortable with this lined at 5 with minimal juice in a situation Read more

Tags: NHL Los Angeles Kings Phoenix Coyotes Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings

03.05.2013     10:42 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Colorado at Detroit -160 O/U 5.5
Recommendation Under

Colorado comes in to Detroit tonight with a full lineup.  Injuries really hurt this Avalanche team early in the season, but with the signing of Ryan O'Reilly, and Gabriel Landeskog getting healthy, they look to make a push in the second half of the season.  They'll have a tough time tonight against a Detroit team that had been playing phenomenal defense as of late.  Detroit has given up just 7 goals in its last 5 games and went Under the total in 5 of its last 6 games.  Colorado sports the 24th ranked offense at just 2.45 gpg which should give the Red Wings a chance to pad their defensive stats even more.  Colorado has seen some defensive improvement of late as well giving up 14 regulation goals in 6 games.  This is a very tough stretch of games for the Avalanche in the next week and I think we'll see some very simple hockey from them on the road tonight.  Best place to look here is Under the total.

Tags: NHL Colorado Avalanche Detroit Red Wings Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

02.26.2013     09:39 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Carolina at Washington -130 O/U 5.5
Recommendation Washington

Carolina travels to Washington tonight in a battle of Southeast division foes. The story here is the breakout game from Alex Ovechkin, where he netted a hat trick and an assist in a 5-1 win over New Jersey Saturday night.  Is this the spark the star forward needed to turn his and Washington's season around?  Any time you give a goal scorer like Ovechkin confidence it could spell disaster for opponents.  The Capitals have won four of their last six games and did it with the NHL's second best power play which scores at a 28.8% clip.  They should have plenty of special teams chances tonight against a Carolina team ranked 24th on the PK killing off just 76.8% of its penalties.  Despite a decent start, Carolina has lost three of its last four games and comes into Washington tonight without a lot of depth.  The Jeff Skinner injury has really kept them from being as offensively explosive as they are capable of and throw in the injuries to Gleason, McBain, and Pitkanen and the Hurricanes have been shorthanded from the better part of February.  These are two teams Read more

Tags: NHL Carolina Hurricanes Washington Capitals Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: New York Rangers at Boston Bruins

02.12.2013     11:02 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
NY Rangers +120 at Boston O/U 5
Recommendation: New York

The New York Rangers face the Boston Bruins for the third time this season after they split the first two meetings.  Rangers head coach John Tortorella recently shook up the lines and it has paid off with plenty of goals coming from outside the big three of Nash, Gaborik, and Richards the last two games. Boston is a very tough place to play, and this is a very good and deep team, but I see it as a tough spot for the Bruins as decent size favorites.  This line is a bit too inflated and we find good value backing New York in a situation that sees Boston in a "sandwich" game.  Boston played in Buffalo Sunday night, and they play in Buffalo Friday night after tonight’s home tilt.  I never like to back a team that comes back home to play just one game before going back onto the road. Boston is just 8-12 (all 20 games as a home favorite) dating back to the 2009-10 season in this situation.  This is a very good opportunity to grab a live dog in a special situational spot.

Tags: NHL New York Rangers Boston Bruins Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets

02.05.2013     09:44 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Los Angeles -150 at Columbus O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Under

I gave out a free play last week on Columbus under the total and it pushes due to a late empty net goal. We’ll go back to the well tonight with the same play as Los Angeles comes to town.  The Kings have always been very good defensively, despite taking a step back last game in Anaheim on Saturday night. Both teams have really struggled to score this season with Columbus putting up just 1.89 goals a game and LA with 2.14.  One of the biggest reasons for NHL games going over the total this season has been the amount of penalties called and the effectiveness of the power plays. In this situation we find both teams at the bottom of the league in PP% (Columbus 23rd 14.6% and LA 27th 10.8%).  Don't expect either team to help this total get over 5.5 with their man advantage.  The biggest variable in this game is the ability for LA to get back to solid defensive hockey that they are known for against an offensively anemic team.  I expect a solid defensive effort from the Kings on the road with this game staying well under the total.

Tags: NHL Los Angeles Kings Columbus Blue Jackets Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: St. Louis Blues at Columbus Blue Jackets

01.31.2013     12:09 PM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
St. Louis -175 at Columbus O/U 5
Recommendation: Under

I’ve had some success so far this season betting Columbus games under the total.  This team has really struggled offensively since the departure of Rick Nash this past offseason.  Their offense just doesn’t seem to click and it is pretty apparent as they rank 27th in goals per game at 1.71.  Columbus’ power play has really struggled as well, ranking 26th at 11.8%.  Things don’t get any easier as they face one of the best defensive teams in the NHL in the St. Louis Blues tonight.  The Blues are holding their opponents to a staggering 19.5 shots per game!  The next closest team is Anaheim at 25.4 shots.  Needless to say, the Blue Jackets will have their work cut out for them tonight in order to find quality chances around the net.  Despite Columbus’ shortcomings on offense, I do project a competitive effort from them defensively.  Five of their seven games have been decided by one goal and with the 4th best penalty killing in the NHL the Blue Jackets should be able to keep St. Louis’ red hot power play (33.3%) in Read more

Tags: NHL St. Louis Blues Columbus Blue Jackets Sammy P

NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild

01.22.2013     09:59 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Nashville at Minnesota -130 O/U 5
Recommendation: Under

There’s a brand new look to the Minnesota Wild this season after making a big splash in the off season signing free agents Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. But don't be fooled as the Wild remain the same gritty and defensive-minded team they have been for years. Even with the addition of Parise to the lineup, the Wild are still going to struggle to score goals. Note that Parise is one of the best defensive forwards in the league and I’ll continue to look to support Minnesota under the total in situations like we have tonight. Nashville had a tough time finding the back of the net in its opener against the Blue Jackets and I expect much of the same tonight. Like Minnesota, the Predators are also playing in a back-to-back after playing a tough game at home last night against the Blues in which they lost 4-3. The Preds were limited in 5-on-5 play and scored two of their three goals on their six power play opportunities and could only muster 24 shots on goal total. Travel on a back-to-back is a prime spot to look to play teams under the total. Look for a tight one goal game here tonight where Read more

Tags: NHL Nashville Predators Minnesota Wild Sammy P

NHL Gambling Trends: Shortened season goal scoring

01.18.2013     10:14 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Many people have asked me, how will the shortened season impact overall goal scoring in the NHL?  Will we see trend UNDER or OVER the total?  Well look no further than the last time the NHL had a shortened 48-game season back in 1994-95.  Scoring was down half a goal per game compared to the season prior.  Here is a list of the 1990's goals per game average:

1990 6.91
1991 6.96
1992 7.25
1993 6.48
1994* 5.97
1995 6.29
1996 5.83
1997 5.28
1998 5.27
1999 5.49

Scoring immediately dropped in the lockout shortened season and then saw a bounce back in production closer to normal early 90's scoring.  It is important to note the big drop off in the late 90's is attributed to the trap style of play teams started to employ.  Players have been quoted from the 1994 season saying that every game felt like a playoff game.  Teams cannot afford to have an off night or off week in a shortened season with every team sprinting towards the finish line.  Competitive games and a playoff type atmosphere is a major variable for games to be low scoring.  If history is to repeat Read more

Tags: NHL Sammy P

NHL Playoff Free Betting Pick: St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks

04.19.2012     08:06 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
St. Louis at San Jose -110 O/U 5
Recommendation: Under

Heading into Game 4 in San Jose tonight this series has been a very close hard fought affair.  St. Louis holds the 2-1 series lead, but San Jose still has the opportunity on its home ice to get back in the series and knot things up at two games apiece.  The first three games have seen scores of 3-2, 3-0, and 4-3.  The main storyline in this series has been the Blues’ Power Play efficiency which has seen at least one goal scored in all three games (5-for-13 for the series).  In fact, St. Louis went 3-for-4 on the man advantage on Monday night while San Jose also added a PP goal going 1-for-4.  If San Jose wants to get back into this series they will have to be better on their PK and they know this.  "We just haven't moved well together [on the PK]," forward Joe Pavelski said. "We know we can do it. We've shown it in the past. We've got to get the clears when we get the chance and get the first save, which we have. We have to do a better job of clearing out."  San Jose will be more aggressive on their kill tonight and we'll end up seeing Read more

Tags: NHL St. Louis Blues San Jose Sharks Sammy P


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