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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




College Football Gambling: Ohio State suspensions impact Week 1 pointspread

07.31.2015     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The suspension of four Ohio State players caused some movement in the betting markets yesterday. The Buckeyes travel to Blacksburg for a Week 1 showdown vs. the Hokies. Of those sitting for OSU will be Joey Bosa is arguably the best defensive end in college football. Ohio State opened -14 but when rumors of the suspensions surfaced, the line dropped to -12.5. Once it became official, more VT money caused the line to plummet to its current number of -10.


"We talk about it every day," senior linebacker Joshua Perry said before the Buckeyes left for the ESPYs earlier this month. "This is the time of year when things can get out of hand. You really have to keep an eye on that. We do a really good job policing each other and making sure guys stay out of trouble."






Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Virginia Tech Hokies ACC




NFL Handicapping: Baltimore keeping same offensive philosphy under Trestman

07.28.2015     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With Gary Kubiak taking over in Denver, the Baltimore Ravens brought in former Chicago head coach Marc Trestman to serve as offensive coordinator. According to Trestman, the Ravens' offense will stay the same. Baltimore ranked 12th in total offense (364.9 ypg), 13th in passing (238.7 ypg), and eighth in rushing (126.2 ypg) last season. 


“It’s never going to be my offense. It’s always going to be the Ravens offense,” Trestman said Wednesday during his introductory conference call.

“I think the framework and the formula for this is for me to go in and learn the offense. … Why would I have 40-some guys learn a new offense when I’m just one person? Isn’t it easier for me to learn it instead of starting over with everybody else, including coaches?”






Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens




College Football Betting: Texas Tech brings in yet another new defensive coordinator

07.23.2015     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In sticking with our fast offense, bad defense, new coordinator theme, Texas Tech welcomes first-year DC David Gibbs the program's sixth DC since 2009. Gibbs spent the past two seasons at Houston where his stop units forced an incredible 73 turnovers. To compare, the Red Raiders gained only 34 turnovers during the span. TTU's defense was historically bad last season having allowed 45+ points on five occasions including 82 to TCU. Some of the blame can be placed on Kingsbury's offense which obviously plays ultra-fast and over the last two seasons coughed up the football a whopping 61 times. Still, there weren't many teams as incompetent when it came to stopping the opposition (512.7 ypg allowed).


"We knew that he had the track record, had the credibility coming in," Kingsbury said.

Read more



Tags: College Football Texas Tech Red Raiders Big XII




College Football Betting: Gene Chizik brought in to help shore up North Carolina's defense

07.21.2015     09:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There weren't many power conference defenses worse than North Carolina last season. The Tar Heels allowed nearly 500 ypg despite DC Vic Koenning's pedigree of producing strong stop units. Koenning was let go (DC, Troy) and former Auburn head coach Gene Chizik was brought in to help save Larry Fedora's job. According to reports, UNC will operate out of the 4-3.


“Coach Chizik brought in a 4-3 as our base defense, and that really fits our talent much better,” Schoettmer said.

“We had so many issues last year with blown coverages and guys not being in the right sports, and coach Chizik has simplified a lot of things to make sure that doesn’t happen as much.”

“We missed way too many tackles last year, and coach Chizik went back and watched every game, and he thought poor tracking angles was a big issue,” Schoettmer said.

“So we did a lot of tackling in the spring, and it was very physical, much more than my first three years here.”






Tags: College Football North Carolina Tar Heels ACC




College Football Handicapping: Houston starts over with former Ohio State OC Herman

07.21.2015     09:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After a 35-17 record under the watch of Kevin Sumlin, the Houston Cougars weren't satisfied with three years of slightly above average football under Tony Levine. They let Levin go and hired up-and-comer Tom Herman who spent the last three years as Ohio State's offensive coordinator. Herman gutted the coaching staff and brought in two very highly regarded coordinators in Major Applewhite (OC, Texas) and Todd Orlando (DC, Utah State). The Cougars return 16 starters and are the second pick (+175) in the ACC behind Memphis (+105).




Tags: College Football Houston Cougars AAC




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators

07.20.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Much of the offseason media hype comes from the head coaching changes in the NFL, but savvy bettors know that coordinator changes are every bit as important.  In my Wiseguy Report, I’m beginning a multi-week overview of the new coordinators around the league starting on offense, focusing on how the new coordinators experience and philosophies are likely to affect their new team’s level of production.  Next week, I’ll finish off the OC changes and begin examining the defensive coordinator changes.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Marc Trestman, Baltimore Ravens - Trestman crashed and burned during his short head coaching tenure with the Chicago Bears, unable to turn Jay Cutler into an elite level quarterback.  But Trestman’s reputation as a creative play caller and top tier quarterback guru hasn’t been affected by his failures in the Windy City.  Each of Baltimore’s last two offensive coordinators was a former head coach who got another head coaching job – Jim Caldwell and Gary Kubiak; something Trestman covets.  And while Chicago didn’t Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

07.10.2015     08:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Nelson) at Los Angeles (Bolsinger) -155 O/U 7
Recommendation: Over


Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson has done a fair job of navigating through his first season as a full-time starter. Overall he sports a 4.50 ERA and a respectable .398 xFIP. But he's had issues with the home run ball (13 allowed) and appears to be someone who will benefit from the upcoming All-Star break. Note that in Nelson's first 11 starts, he recorded 10 or more swinging strikes eight times but hasn't accomplished the feat in any of his last six outings (4.67 ERA, .299 BAA, .832 OPS). And of his last five starts he topped six innings only once. LA's Mike Bolsinger and his 3.09 ERA are on borrowed time. After a 1.15 ERA his first five starts he's been decidedly mediocre since (7 starts, 4.79 ERA). His last outing vs. the offensively anemic Mets at home was a big red flag (5 IP, 9 hits, 4 ERs). And like Nelson, Bolsinger has had a real difficult time going deep into games having topped six innings just once in his last seven outings. Looks like we have to hittable starters on the bump and a reasonable price to play the over.




Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers Andrew Lange




Aliante Sportsbook now offering sports betting app

07.08.2015     10:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas' Aliante Casino and Sportsbook announced the release of its own sports betting app. Unlike a lot of Vegas sportsbooks, Aliante offers reduced juice MLB lines. Shops like Stations, Coasts, and Mirage deal 15-cent lines or more on sides. According to our odds screen, Aliante offers eight-cent lines. We're unsure however if that is the going rate for all bettors or just the small player/general public.




Tags: MLB Las Vegas




MLB Gambling Update: Bookie says Pete Rose was a horrible bettor

07.08.2015     10:00 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Pete Rose: Great hitter, shitty bettor.


Rose was a "complete square, a sucker," Denkenson said, and his action, even on the Reds, had no impact on the betting market odds.

"He paid a bunch of weeks in a row and then he just said, 'I've lost enough to you,'" Denkenson said. "I've seen those kinds of customers before -- they're great customers. You have a customer who's not going to win, you know you're going to win and you know you're probably going to get stiffed on probably 10 percent of what he lost. You accept that with bells on. You only hope he loses a little each week so he [keeps betting] forever."



 

 

 








MLB Gambling News: Documents show Read more



Tags: MLB Pete Rose



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 04, 2015 02:57 PM.