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September

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College Football Gambling Update: Oddsmakers adjust to Winston's suspension

09.17.2014     02:49 PM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Update: CRIS reopened Florida State as a 17.5-point favorite. Some offshore shops, including CRIS, moved down to -16.5. The game's total is down from 66 to 60.5.





College Football Gambling Alert: FSU's Winston suspended for first half vs. Clemson

09.17.2014     09:44 AM     View Original Blog


Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston will sit the first half of Saturday's game vs. Clemson due to him being completely unaware that everything he says and does will be posted on Read more



Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Clemson Tigers ACC




College Football Gambling Alert: FSU's Winston suspended for first half vs. Clemson

09.17.2014     09:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston will sit the first half of Saturday's game vs. Clemson due to him being completely unaware that everything he says and does will be posted on Deadspin. Sportsbooks took the game off the board. The Seminoles were -19.5 prior to the announcement.



Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Clemson Tigers ACC




College Football Betting: Have bettors overreacted on California and West Virginia?

09.17.2014     07:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Every college football season there are a handful of teams that take massive jumps in the eyes of bettors after tepid preseason expectations and solid play the first few weeks of the regular season. Two teams that comes to mind are West Virginia and California. The Mountaineers were lined in the neighborhood of 4.5 over/under wins and looked to be headed in the wrong direction under Dana Holgorsen. They instead opened the season with a competitive showing and pointspread cover against Alabama (33-23). Against Towson, WVU was laying -24.5 and rolled to a 54-0 win. And then last week, catching +3.5/+3 on the road, beat Maryland 40-37. This week, West Virginia plays host to Oklahoma. The Golden Nugget originally lined the Sooners as 17-point chalk. On Sunday, CRIS opened the game -12.5 and it has since been bet down to as low as -7. Rob Veno's Power Rating makes and adjustment towards WVU but not nearly as much with Oklahoma -14.5.

Similar situation with Cal who opened the year with an outright win at Northwestern. They followed it up with a 55-14 win over Sacramento State as 27-point chalk. There was no Golden Nugget GOY line on this week's matchup at Arizona but based on Read more


Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII California Golden Bears PAC-12




College Football Gambling: Market reacts to Wake Forest's shortcomings

09.16.2014     01:22 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Army -2.5 at Wake Forest

A little insight into the big market towards Army as it travels to take on Wake Forest. For starters, Wake essentially lost of a day of prepping for the Wishbone with having to travel back from Utah State. Second is their issues along the offensive line which resulted in six sacks and -25 yards rushing vs. the Aggies. Lastly, first-year head coach Dave Clawson admitted to playing defensive players that clearly aren't ready to play but need to experience.


“Where it really creates the problem is on the way back, because the team doesn’t get back until Sunday morning at 7 o’clock,’’ Clawson said. “So it really creates a lot more problem for the Army prep.

“I mean, when you play these games you prefer to have a long Read more



Tags: College Football Wake Forest Demon Deacons ACC Army Black Knights




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

09.15.2014     07:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple.  It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.”   This strategy tends to be at its best  very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year. 

That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up.  Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England).  Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites.  Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number.  And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game.  The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS.  Other weak teams like the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers

09.10.2014     02:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle at San Diego
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -5 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -6 O/U 44
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Seattle

The recent history of defending Super Bowl Champions has not been a good one.  No team since the New England Patriots following their 2003 Super Bowl title has even won a single playoff game the following season. The last two defending champs – the Giants and Ravens – failed to make the playoffs the year after their title.

But Seattle is a different animal compared to recent Super Bowl champs.  Three things make the Seahawks different.  First, their coaching staff didn’t get raided this past offseason, as they return both coordinators.  The historical norm is that Super Bowl winning teams tend to lose some of their coaching talent in the offseason, but there’s full continuity for the Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers Teddy Covers




College Footbal Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Tech Red Raiders

09.10.2014     06:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arkansas at Texas Tech
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Texas Tech -1 O/U 66
CRIS Current: Texas Tech -2.5 O/U 63.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Texas Tech -4.5
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: See analysis

In Week 1 against Central Arkansas, the Texas Red Raiders committed 15 penalties, threw two interceptions, and fumbled twice (recovered both). First game jitters, right? Wrong. In Week 2, despite out-gaining UTEP by over 100 yards and averaging over 8.0 ypc, TTU need a touchdown with less than three minutes to go to eek out a victory. One of the reasons for the margin not being three touchdowns like the box score indicated was Tech's 10 penalties for 90 yards. Bottom line is all of those "controllable" statistics that killed this team last season (-14 TO margin, 75.2 ypg of penalties) haven't left (-3 TO margin, 102.0 ypg of penalties). When you can't get out of your own way like Read more


Tags: College Football Arkansas Razorbacks SEC Texas Tech Red Raiders Big XII Andrew Lange




NFL Handicapping: League gets the Elo Ratings treatment

09.05.2014     11:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stat nerds will love this. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has created Elo Ratings for the NFL. Here's a link to Silver discussing the science behind it and another link to the ratings. His "spread" on last night's Packers-Seattle game was -10. One of the biggest discrepancies for Sunday's games is Detroit -1.5 vs. New York. The market currently has the Lions priced as a 6-point home favorite.


Do you also account for margin of victory?

Affirmative. I took some inspiration from the soccer ratings, which account for goal differential in addition to the game result. But this is one of the more complicated parts.

For the NFL, I start by adding one point to team’s margin of victory and then take its natural logarithm. Then I multiply that result by the K value. That means I’m more moved by big wins than narrow ones, although there are diminishing returns. I’m not so impressed by the fifth touchdown when a team is ahead 28-0.

Read more


Tags: NFL




Oddsmaker says Chicago Bears are an OVER team

09.05.2014     10:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers Jay Kornegay, Jimmy Vaccaro, and Chris Andrews weigh in on the Chicago Bears. Kornegay said the Bears will be in a lot of shootouts this season.


Kornegay: When you’re talking about moving numbers below 10, that takes quite a bit of money. A half game is very valuable. To win the Super Bowl, the most money is on the Seahawks. But the most tickets we’ve sold to win it are on the Bears, Packers and Vikings. Midwesterners bet on their teams. I’ve always told people that once the Cubs win the World Series, I’ll probably be out of a job.





Tags: NFL Chicago Bears




NFL Gambling Update: Carolina's Newton upgraded to probable

09.05.2014     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina at Tampa Bay -2.5 O/U 39

According to reports, Carolina's Cam Newton (rib) is "on pace" to start Week 1's opener at Tampa Bay. They Panthers won't make it official, however, until Sunday. Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite but since Newton's injury because public, we've seen a steady flow of Tampa Bay money. Offshore sportsbooks 5Dimes and Jazz currently have the Bucs -3 (ev).


"How I'm feeling right now, I'm on pace to be ready to go on Sunday.''

Asked what could disrupt that, Newton jokingly said, "Maybe from walking home, somebody wants to [mug] me or something like that. Getting hit by a car. Running away from a tiger. There's a lot of things that could disrupt that pace.''

"It's not just about Game 1, also,'' Rivera said. "Let's be realistic. This is not a sprint, Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers



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September

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 17, 2014 06:36 PM.