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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
05.22.2013 06:31 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
LA Dodgers
(Ryu) -110 at
Milwaukee
(Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid thus far; like a lot of Far East products he features an arsenal of different pitches at different speeds. He's had a fairly favorable schedule with four games in LA and two in San Francisco and New York. In games at Atlanta, Baltimore, and Arizona, Ryu was a bit more hittable, allowing nine earned runs in 17 innings. Coming from the left side, I view today as perhaps his toughest assignment with the Brewers loaded with right-handed bats in a hitter friendly park.
Wily Peralta hasn't been the most fortunate starter in baseball but his 29-to-17 K-to-BB ratio in 50 innings certainly hasn't helped his cause. I like Peralta's groundball rate (54.5%) but his inability to consistently miss bats and avoid the long ball (6 HRs allowed) makes him a fringe NL arm in my book. Also note that his start in LA (6 IP, 3 ERs) was with Doug Eddings behind the plate.
And while
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Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
05.21.2013 10:34 AM
Printer Friendly
Kansas City
(Davis) -125 at
Houston
(Norris) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Kansas City's Wade Davis has probably been a bit unlucky this season (.393 BABIP) but you have to be careful when calling for a pitcher's luck to turn, especially when dealing with a fringe arm like Davis. Keep in mind Davis' struggles are nothing new. In 2010 and 2011, as a starter, Davis was a below average AL starter with xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.82 respectively. I've always been a believer of Bud Norris but I do have some concerns after he left his last start with back spasms. His strikeouts this season are way down (33 in 50 IP) after posting a K per inning in 2012. Some of that has to do with pitching in the American League but with only 4 Ks in his last two starts, he doesn't appear to be in great form. Neither offense is much to get excited about but I see the potential for a lot of balls to be put in play tonight and as a result, we'll take a look at the over.
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Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
05.20.2013 09:44 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
(Corbin) -110 at
Colorado
(Garland) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price.
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MLB Handicapping: Starting pitchers and unsustainable numbers
05.13.2013 12:06 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
We're far enough into the MLB season that we can start to look at starting pitchers with unsustainable numbers. BABPIP has long been a tool of grading the lucky from unlucky. There are some exceptions – ex. Detroit's pitchers typically have higher BABIPs because of poor defense whereas Tampa's BABIPs have historically been lower than the league average of .300 because of better than average defense. The league average left-on-base percentage in right around 70%. Matt Moore is a damn good pitcher but his 96.1% will inevitably go down. Last year's top mark, from teammate Jeremy Hellickson, was 82.7%. ERA-FIP difference is another good tool – Jeremy Guthrie's ERA is 2.28 but his FIP is 4.60 which indicates he's been more fortunate than good. Max Scherzer's ERA is 3.61 yet his FIP is 1.88 which indicates he's been stellar with what he can control – most notably the art of missing bats (11.6 K/9). Lastly is HR/FB ratio. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen's groundball rate is a ridiculously low 31.5% yet only 4.5% of fly balls resulted in home runs. Keep in mind Chen allowed 29 homers last season so we can expect balls to leave the yard with more frequency moving forward. Keep
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners
05.11.2013 07:33 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Oakland
(Parker) at
Seattle
(Maurer) -105 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over
I thought for sure that the Oakland A's would place Jarrod Parker on the DL, especially after hearing quotes like this...
"It's been something that's been bothering me a little bit," Parker said. "I got some pitches that were up in the zone. If I was 100 percent, I don't think they would be at that location."
He hasn't had the velocity he had last year," Melvin said. "The neck strain could have something to do with that."
Parker is apparently dealing with a neck strain that has likely contributed to his significant decline (7.34 ERA, 34. 1IP, 50 hits, 18 BBs, 25 Ks). And he doesn't have the element of surprise having faced the Mariners four times already, including earlier this season (5 IP, 4 ERs, 3 BBs, 1 K).
Seattle's Brandon Maurer has done just enough to stay at the MLB level but the overall product is nothing to get
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SPECIAL OFFER: Crush this Weekend for only $79
05.10.2013 07:55 AM
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MLB Gambling Free Play: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers
05.07.2013 08:02 AM
Andrew Lange
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Texas
(Grimm) -110 at
Milwaukee
(Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Despite the fact that 14 of 19 games have gone over the total at Miller Marker this season, only once has a game closed with a total of 9. Oddsmakers and the betting markets just haven't caught on that everything about these games screams offense. For starters, Milwaukee doesn't have any elite level starting pitchers. Yovani Gallardo has a decent pedigree but has struggled. Kyle Lohse is the only pitcher has performed up to his capabilities but he's obviously not involved this evening. And Marco Estrada and tonight's starter Wily Peralta have proved to be quite hittable with ERA's currently hovering around 6. Then of course there is Milwaukee's bullpen which statistically hasn't been as bad as it seems but still sports a group ERA north of 4.00. Finally, Milwaukee’s offense has been solid, especially at home where they average over five runs per game with .280/.811 splits. Tonight, Peralta is on the hill, and
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
05.04.2013 07:50 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
St. Louis
(Wainwright) -120 at
Milwaukee
(Gallardo) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis
In 2011 and 2012, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo struck out exactly a batter per inning – a mark of an above average MLB starter. This season, his numbers are way down with only 22 strikeouts in 36 innings. That is tied to the fact that his velocity is down. Gallardo is perhaps rounding into form with three straight quality starts but I'm not sure some of it didn't have to do with facing Pittsburgh, San Diego, and San Francisco. In his first three starts, he faced St. Louis, Arizona, and Colorado, three of the top offensive teams in the NL and they smacked him around for 12 runs in 16.1 IP. But the white elephant in this matchup is the fact that Gallardo has a horrific track record vs. St. Louis – something that I don't think is necessarily fluky as the Cardinals have always been a smart, well prepared organization. Some have suggested that they picked up on Gallardo tipping pitches but
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
05.02.2013 07:44 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Detroit
(Porcello) -170 at
Houston
(Lyles) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
Considering the lineup they are carting out there on a daily basis, it is amazing that the Houston Astros rank 7th in the American League in slugging pct. (.413) and 8th in OPS (.730). A lot of that is bolstered by the infamous 16-run explosion vs. Seattle back in early April but overall, the Astros are finding ways to put a decent amount of runs on the board. Detroit's Rick Porcello had a bounce back performance last time out against Atlanta (6.1 IP, 3 ERs) but I watched that start and he was a pitch or two away from imploding yet again. Porcello doesn't have a pitch he can put batters away with and as a result he pitches to a lot of contact (19.1 IP, 28 hits, 8 Ks).
The fact that Jordan Lyles started the season in the minors is a huge red flag. Especially when his competition was Philip Humber (7.58 ERA), Brad Peacock (9.41) and Erik Bedard (8.20). And while manager Bo Porter is
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MLB Betting Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
04.26.2013 07:31 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Colorado
(Nicasio) at
Arizona
(McCarthy) -135 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
Arizona's Brandon McCarthy has had a rough go of it in his return after getting hit in the head with a line drive late last season. In four starts McCarthy has allowed 36 hits and 17 earned runs while posting only 11 strikeouts. No question he's been a bit on the unlucky side (.391 BABIP, 7.06 ERA vs. 4.13 xFIP) but he simply hasn't shown the type of stuff that can consistently miss bats and/or get people out. Right now, I see McCarthy's ceiling as a 5- or 6-inning, 3 or 4 earned run type of pitcher. Unlike Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio has never come off as a guy who can have prolonged success at the MLB level. In 20.1 innings of work, the righty has allowed 12 runs, 12 walks, and only 12 strikeouts. And there is nothing fluky about his numbers with a .262 BABIP and nearly identical ERA (5.31) and xFIP (5.34). These two pitchers squared off last week in Coors Field with Arizona winning 5-4. There
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