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NHL Western Conference Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Preview
04.30.2013 07:50 AM
Sammy P Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports
Western Conference Playoff Betting Preview
#1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #8 Minnesota Wild
Season Series: Chicago 2-0-1
Series Price: Chicago -360/Minnesota +300
Chicago Keys:
The Chicago Blackhawks have been one of the best teams in the league throughout the course of the season. Rarely have they been outmatched and they come into this series with Minnesota rested and healthy. The knock on Chicago coming into the season was goaltending, but Corey Crawford and Ray Emery have both been superb (winning the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals against). The Blackhawks are so stacked up front with scorers like Kane, Hossa, Sharp, and Toews, but they also have one of the best supporting casts in the league with forwards like Shaw and Bickell chipping in offense to go with their solid two-way play. Facing a struggling Minnesota team, Chicago just cannot beat itself. If they take care of the puck and stay out of the box, their depth and talent will prevail.
Minnesota Keys:
Minnesota faltered big time down the stretch and snuck into the playoffs
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Sammy P
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NHL Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild
04.23.2013 09:54 AM
Sammy P Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports
Los Angeles -115 at Minnesota O/U 5
Recommendation: Los Angeles
Rarely do you get one of the hottest and best teams in the NHL playing at this short of a price, but that’s what we get tonight when the Kings travel to Minnesota to face a reeling Wild club. Minnesota has lost eight of its last 11 games and they have been unable to consistently find the back of the net during this time (1.7 goals per game). Scoring has always been a major problem for the Wild and facing a tough Kings defense tonight is not what the doctor ordered to break them out of their slump. This is a Kings team starting to get healthier at the right time with the addition of Matt Greene off of the IR. Don't let the "must win" talk for Minnesota tonight fool you as Los Angeles is just as focused to lock up home ice advantage for the playoffs. Los Angeles has been winning games of late (4-0-1) with timely scoring, stellar defense, and depth. They've scored at least one PP goal in eight straight games. Look for the Kings to continue this push into the playoffs and wear down the Wild tonight at the short
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Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Sammy P
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers takes a look at 28 NCAA Tournament matchups
03.18.2013 10:19 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets. Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday. Games are listed in rotation order.
Missouri
spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of
Colorado State’s
talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.
As a No. 3 seed,
Marquette
is only a 3.5-point favorite over No. 14 seed
Davidson
. The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.
Butler
has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship
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Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Fade the Dead in College Hoops
02.25.2013 07:02 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
It’s late February, and there’s still two more full weeks of regular season action in college hoops before the madness truly begins. It’s too early to write about conference tournament betting strategies – I’ll save that for next week. But it’s not too late to write about the bevy of ‘dead’ teams that are populating the college hoops landscape right now; teams that are lethargically playing out the string of the regular season. Sometimes, the sharp move is to lay big points fading sorry teams.
Even bad teams have hope in November – the season is fresh and new; teammates aren’t sick and tired of each other or their coaches, and the nagging injuries haven’t started to pile up. And teams that get smacked around in non-conference play for two months get an opportunity to regroup against comparable competition when conference play begins in January.
But when things go south in conference play, it’s not easy for many of these squads to continue competing at the same level they were earlier in the season. By late February, the final few weeks of the regular season are a meat grinder for struggling
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
Northwestern Wildcats
South Florida Bulls
Duquesne Dukes
Old Dominion Dukes
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Handicapping: TCU's upset of Kansas highlights crazy night
02.07.2013 06:23 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Earlier tonight I posted the numbers from
TCU’s upset of Kansas
. There was a slew of games on this crazy night that could have earned their own post. That would have taken all night to write though. So, I’m going to cherry pick some key numbers from important games involving ranked teams.
#7 Arizona (-8.5) beat Stanford 73-67
Arizona fell behind Stanford 10-0 out of the gate, and it looked like we were going to see a replay of the UCLA game on this floor. But, the Wildcats settled down…got back into the game quickly enough, then pulled away in the final moments to win by six. If you buy into the theory that Arizona is overrated when they’re matched up against quality, that paid off against the market price. I’m still skeptical about how some of their
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College Basketball Gambling: Kentucky impresses in win over Ole Miss
01.30.2013 11:17 AM
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Stat Intelligence
It’s been a down year for Kentucky so far, at least in terms of preseason expectations. Too many pundits and fans were assuming head coach John Calipari would just reload every year and coast to a championship with future NBAers. The Wildcats are finally starting to play to its talent this season. Tuesday’s 87-74 win at #19 Mississippi as a 3-point underdog was particularly impressive.
Kentucky 87, #19 Mississippi 74
2-Point Percentage: Kentucky 61%, Ole Miss 33%
3-Point Shooting: Kentucky 8/23, Ole Miss 5/16
Free Throws: Kentucky 23/37, Ole Miss 13/20
1’s and 2’s: Kentucky 63, Ole Miss 59
Rebounds: Kentucky 42, Ole Miss 44
Turnovers: Kentucky 9, Ole Miss 7
(Kentucky 22-20, Ole Miss 25-24)
(The stat boxes will include parenthetical references to the computer ranking entering tonight made publicly available by Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin)
Wow…61% to 33% on
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Kentucky Wildcats
Ole Miss Rebels
Stat Intelligence
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College Basketball Handicapping: Laws of Math Finally Catching Up with Arizona
01.25.2013 01:59 PM
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Stat Intelligence
Earlier this season…
*The Arizona Wildcats needed some home cooking to steal a game from the Florida Gators in Tucson. Arizona was +12 in made free throws in a game they only won by a point. Note that Florida took 34 shots inside the arc, but was only sent to the charity stripe for eight free throw attempts. Arizona took 24 shots inside the arc but got to shoot 21 free throws. As others have pointed out (most notably Ken Pomeroy), that one result has warped the AP and coaches poll for weeks since.
*The Arizona Wildcats were fortunate to survive a neutral court naibliter against San Diego State. They won by one point despite getting outshot and outrebounded. Again, their ability to get to the line and make free throws helped.
*The Arizona Wildcats needed a MIRACLE to force overtime at home against Colorado. You probably remember the disputed three-pointer at the buzzer that led to the extra period.
*The Arizona Wildcats didn’t exactly set
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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense
01.25.2013 07:04 AM
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Stat Intelligence
We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:
The Harbaugh brother angle
Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia
Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status
Ray Lewis’s retirement
Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.
Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes
I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly
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Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl XLVII
Stat Intelligence
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NHL Handicapper Free Pick: Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild
01.22.2013 09:59 AM
Sammy P Sports
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Nashville at Minnesota -130 O/U 5
Recommendation: Under
There’s a brand new look to the Minnesota Wild this season after making a big splash in the off season signing free agents Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. But don't be fooled as the Wild remain the same gritty and defensive-minded team they have been for years. Even with the addition of Parise to the lineup, the Wild are still going to struggle to score goals. Note that Parise is one of the best defensive forwards in the league and I’ll continue to look to support Minnesota under the total in situations like we have tonight. Nashville had a tough time finding the back of the net in its opener against the Blue Jackets and I expect much of the same tonight. Like Minnesota, the Predators are also playing in a back-to-back after playing a tough game at home last night against the Blues in which they lost 4-3. The Preds were limited in 5-on-5 play and scored two of their three goals on their six power play opportunities and could only muster 24 shots on goal total. Travel on a back-to-back is a prime spot to look to play teams under the total. Look for a tight one goal game here tonight where
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Nashville Predators
Minnesota Wild
Sammy P
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College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini
01.17.2013 11:07 AM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Northwestern
at
Illinois
-10.5 O/U 131.5
Recommendation: Illinois
I don’t lay big points often but tonight’s game sets up as a great opportunity to support an Illinois team that is obviously not at all happy after a pair of blowout losses. The Illini lost at home to Minnesota, 84-67, and were crushed on the road by Wisconsin, 74-51. Illinois is now sitting at just 1-3 in Big Ten play and is in desperate need of a confidence inducing performance. I expect that we will see a motivated and focused home team tonight.
Aside from a road win at woeful Penn State, Northwestern hasn’t exactly stepped up in class against the better teams in the Big Ten with the Wildcats losing 94-66 at home to Michigan, 69-51 at Minnesota and a 70-50 home loss to Iowa on the weekend. The heart of Northwestern’s problems is the absence of senior forward Drew Crawford who is out for the year with a shoulder injury. The Wildcats have struggled
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Northwestern Wildcats
Illinois Fighting Illini
Ian Cameron
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