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NBA Gambling: New York Knicks Regressing and Passive
02.23.2013 07:55 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Earlier this season, we invented the KRIB Index because the New York Knicks were playing like they had re-invented basketball (
K
nicks
R
e-
I
nvent
B
asketball). They had a higher number of made treys than giveaways more than 30 games into the regular season…something nobody else in the league could do even one game deep into the season. Maybe you had to be a stathead to love it. But, Knicks fans certainly loved the pop and sizzle the team was showing on offense.
Recently, that pop and sizzle are gone. The
K
nicks are
r
egressing in those key offensive stats,
a
nd have grown
p
assive on defense after an enthusiastic start.
Recent games where the Knicks have played like KRAP:
New York (-1.5) lost tonight to Toronto 100-98
New York (+4) lost to Indiana 125-91
New York (-8) lost to Toronto 92-88
New York
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NBA
New York Knicks
Stat Intelligence
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College Basketball Handicapping: Finding ways to score the key for Cincinnati
02.21.2013 06:43 AM
Printer Friendly
Cincinnati
-1 at
Connecticut
O/U 126.5
You know how some beat writers or SIDs will point out that Team A is 34-1 when scoring 100 points or more – or some silly stat that is ridiculously obvious. Here's one that isn't. Most of you are aware that Cincinnati isn't a great offensive team. The Bearcats rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency (0.98 ppp) and 14th in effective field goal percentage (44.1%).So it stands to reason that when Cinci does have success it often manages to match or exceed those numbers. But Cinci has proven it doesn't need to shoot lights out or be ultra-efficient to win. Amazingly this team is a perfect
19-0 when it scores 61 points
(!!!) or more. The scary thing is the Bearcats have seven losses. Tonight's opponent UConn has held four of its 12 Big East opponents to below 60 points in
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Tags:
College Basketball
Cincinnati Bearcats
UConn Huskies
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College Basketball Handicapping: Minnesota and Ohio State limp into Wednesday's matchup
02.20.2013 07:37 AM
Printer Friendly
Minnesota
at
Ohio State
-5.5 O/U 126
It's a lot easier handicap a game when one team comes in off a horrific performance rather than two. Such is the case with tonight’s Minnesota-Ohio State matchup. The Buckeyes were
destroyed
by Wisconsin, 71-49, in Madison. The Golden Gophers were just as bad as a 16-point lead somehow turned into a
21-point loss
at Iowa. Needless to say, the key word from both camps following their defeats was "embarrassed."
"I think I can speak for the team, we are embarrassed," Smith said. "We not only embarrassed ourselves, we embarrassed our coaching staff, our university, our school president and our fans. We embarrassed everybody. We didn't
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College Basketball Betting Recap: Indiana survives, Florida falters late
02.20.2013 07:24 AM
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Stat Intelligence
I know the AP poll shows Florida down at #5. But, most of the reasonable metrics out there had some variation of Indiana and Florida at #1 and #2 in the nation entering tonight's play. Both were on the road this evening facing what might have been their toughest conference tests of the season. Indiana passed. Florida looked like they were going to pass with flying colors, but fell apart in such dramatic fashion that you have to wonder if they're really ready to run the table in the Dance when they'll have to play 40-minute games against opponents who know what they're doing.
Let's run the numbers...
Indiana 72, Michigan State 68
2-Point Percentage: Indiana 44%, Michigan State 49%
3-Point Shooting: Indiana 8/18, Michigan State 4/15
Free Throws: Indiana 10/15, Michigan State 16/23
1’s and 2’s: Indiana 48, Michigan State 56
Rebounds: Indiana 28, Michigan State 31
Turnovers: Indiana 10, Michigan State
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet college basketball in February
02.18.2013 07:36 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance. In between? This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!
The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about morphing teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative. There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.
Who are some of these teams? Why are they morphing now? Read on to find out!
I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great.
Georgetown
certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests. The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in
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College Basketball Betting Recap: Bizarre Duke Loss, Plus Other Night Delights
02.17.2013 08:23 AM
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It’s not so much that Duke losing on the road to Maryland is bizarre. They almost lost on the road at Boston College last week…and BC is worse than Maryland. It was sure a bizarre boxscore though…
*We’ve seen a few games in recent weeks where a team posted a strong two-point shooting mark on offense, but committed a lot of turnovers. If they didn’t give the ball away…they scored. Or, the defense went for the steal…if it didn’t work…deuce. Saturday night Maryland shot not 50%, or 60%, or 65%....Maryland shot 72% on two-pointers…but turned the ball over TWENTY SIX times! That’s 72% on deuces, with 26 turnovers. EXTREME!
*Duke has had some problems on the boards in recent years when they’re playing top competition. Maryland isn’t really top competition. Just a bubble team. But, Maryland outrebounded Duke by a stunning 38-17.
*At home, Duke often gets the benefit of the doubt on free
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College Basketball Handicapping: Red Hot Georgetown First to 9 Wins in Big East Play
02.16.2013 06:34 AM
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Because of their head start on the weekend, the Georgetown Hoyas find themselves alone in first place of the Big East after Friday’s 62-55 win at Cincinnati.
Georgetown is 9-3 in league action, temporarily ahead of Syracuse and Marquette at 8-3. Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh are tied for fourth with 8-4 records.
It may be time to consider Georgetown more seriously for a #3 seed or better in the Big Dance. We’ve spent a lot of time recently documenting big name teams who aren’t exactly on fire. Georgetown, sitting with a #4 spot in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology assessment, is one of the few teams that’s on a big roll.
*Georgetown is 9-1 straight up its last 10 games.
*Georgetown is also 9-1 against market expectations their last 10 games, including their 11-point cover tonight as a 4-point underdog. There aren't too many teams on 90% cover runs at the moment!
*Georgetown has recent win/covers over Notre Dame,
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NBA Gambling: San Antonio's Big Three expected to play vs. Cleveland
02.13.2013 11:51 AM
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San Antonio
-7 at
Cleveland
O/U 207
Despite this being their last game before the All-Star break – a lot of teams choose to rest injured players – reports indicate that the San Antonio Spurs will be at
full strength
tonight with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker all upgraded to probable. The trio did not play in Monday's 103-89 win at Chicago. Oddsmakers are often left playing the guessing game when it comes to who the Spurs will play. They opened -2.5 for tonight's game against the Cavs with the line now up to -7.
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NBA Handicapping: Breaking down the Eastern Conference
02.12.2013 07:31 AM
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So many weird things have been happening in the NBA’s Eastern Conference in recent days, that I got to wondering what the standings looked like since the turn of the year. That time period would encapsulate the Knicks cooling off a bit…Washington heating up…and all sorts of various storylines.
Let’s take a look...
NBA EAST IN 2013 (only counting games since New Year's)
1…Miami 13-6
2…Brooklyn 14-7
3…Chicago, Indiana, Boston 13-8
Miami’s still at three-quarter speed…yet has the best record in the conference in this short sample. Brooklyn hasn’t played as well as that record would suggest the past several days…but they did win tonight in Indiana to take over the theoretical #2 seed in this time frame. The next three teams have had multiple nights where had kicked things into playoff gear. Ironically, all three lost tonight! Chicago, Indiana, and Boston were 13-7 in 2013 until falling
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College Basketball Betting Update: Minnesota's wheels come off again
02.11.2013 02:35 PM
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UPDATE
A little over two weeks ago the Minnesota Golden Gophers they were in the midst of a three-game losing streak with rumblings that the program was in disarray. The following game they had a decent effort at Wisconsin (lost by one, covered +3.5) and then manhandled Nebraska at home by 19. Up next, Minny barely slipped past Iowa, 62-59, as 10-point home favorites – a win that was a bit troubling considering the Golden Gophers shot better from the field, attempted and made more free throws, were +6 on the glass, and somehow didn't sniff a pointspread cover. Three days later in East Lansing, Minnesota had a 20-18 halftime lead but lost by 11 catching +3.5. But out of all of those performances, it was Sunday's showing vs. Illinois that was the worst. In an absolutely prime spot – off a loss, at home, facing a mediocre Illini squad that just beat the No. 1 team in the country in miracle fashion – Minnesota was simply awful. This is an offense that through its first five Big Ten games averaged 79 ppg and against the 11th-ranked
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