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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason impacts Season Over/Under Win Totals

08.31.2015     08:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
At this late stage of the preseason, it’s very clear which NFL teams are attracting sharp money prior to the start of the regular season.  In addition, it’s very clear which teams the wiseguys are betting against, early and often.  How do we measure and quantify this support (or the lack thereof)?  Simple – a thorough analysis of the Season Win Totals marketplace.

The markets don’t lie when it comes to measuring wiseguy support, because the results are easy to quantify.  For the purposes of this article, I’m going to focus on the Season Win Total numbers from the Westgate Superbook, where the Supercontest Weekend just brought together bettors from across the Las Vegas Valley as well as across the country.

Rather than use opening numbers from the Superbook, I think the more accurate way to measure the effect of the preseason is to look at post-draft numbers from early June.  When we compare those early June numbers with the bettable numbers that are on display on the last day of August (following the first three weeks of preseason action), we get a fairly accurate picture of market support.

The Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Las Vegas' Red Rock sportsbook gears up for football

08.27.2015     09:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas' Red Rock Casino upgraded its sportsbook including the installation of new video displays.


“This is the largest display of its kind ever installed in North America,” he continued, “and with football season beginning it’s very exciting for us and for our customers. The Ultra High Definition really brings the action on the screen to life.”






Tags: Las Vegas




Teddy Covers talks Philadelphia Eagles and UNLV season over/under wins

08.26.2015     01:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers answers seven questions for vegasseven.com.


I’ve got $100 in my pocket. Which way do I go on the season win total (2½) for the Rebels?

Keep the $100 in your pocket. When you look at their schedule, you don’t see three wins. That being said, the Mountain West stinks this year. UNLV has a quarterback in a league where no one has a quarterback. So that makes them live to pull an upset here, an upset there, maybe steal one. I’ll say this much: UNLV isn’t going to win more than two or three games.






Tags: NFL College Football Philadelphia Eagles UNLV Rebels Las Vegas




Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning featured at SuperContest seminar

08.24.2015     09:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas bettors should make their way down to the Westgate SuperBook this Friday for the annual SuperContest seminar. The event is free and will be held in Ballrooms A and B. Doors open at 5 pm PT. The college football panel will start at 6 pm followed by the NFC at 7:20 pm and AFC at 8 pm. Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning will be on the AFC panel.




Tags: NFL College Football Erin Rynning Las Vegas




NFL Gambling: Oddsmakers make small adjustment following injury to Green Bay's Nelson

08.24.2015     08:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Green Bay's top wide receiver, Jordy Nelson, is believed to have torn his ACL which would likely put him on the shelf for the entire season. Las Vegas oddsmakers didn't make that big of adjustment to the Packers' future odds, dropping them from 9-2 to 6-1 to win the Super Bowl. GB's season over/under wins went from 11 to 11un-150. There was virtually no movement on Week 1's matchup at Chicago with the Packers still holding as -6/-6.5 chalk with a total of 50/50.5.




Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap

08.17.2015     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  We can expect that initial line movement to continue unabated if we see more of the same from those units in Week 2.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

Let’s start with a brief overview of the results.  It was a strong Week 1 for the betting favorites.  There were three games that closed right around pick ‘em with no chalk to speak of: KC at Arizona, Washington at Cleveland and Miami at Chicago.  Of the 13 games that closed with a legitimate favorite of at least -1 or higher here in Las Vegas, the favorites dominated to the tune of 10-3 ATS (counting Jacksonville -1.5 as a win in their two point victory over Pittsburgh).  All three underdogs that covered won the game in SU fashion (Carolina beat Buffalo, Green Bay won at New England and Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Gambler gets nabbed for using counterfeit chips

08.17.2015     06:50 AM     Printer Friendly
Check out this sneaky bastard. A poker player snuck in "millions of dollars" worth of fake chips into an Atlantic City poker tournament and then got busted when he tried to flush the evidence down the toilet.




Tags: Poker




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Las Vegas Outlaws forced to close up shop

08.10.2015     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
What a mess. The Arena Football League announced that both New Orleans and Las Vegas franchises have been dissolved. The Las Vegas Outlaws had qualified for the playoffs but obviously won't partake. The eight-team AFL playoffs feature teams with regular season records of 5-13, 8-10, and 7-11. Geesh.


The New Orleans VooDoo and Las Vegas Outlaws organizations have ceased operations effective immediately, the Arena Football League announced today. All players under a continuing contract with either Team shall be placed into the Offseason Assignment Process once a date has been determined.

Since no Team ownership is in place, there is no funding for an Outlaws playoff appearance. The AFL Board of Directors took this into consideration as it was voted that Las Vegas will not take part in postseason play. The Portland Thunder will move into the fourth position in the National Conference playoff picture and face the top seeded San Jose SaberCats during the AFL Quarterfinals on Friday, August 14 at 11pm ET.









Tags: Arena Football



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 30, 2016 09:53 AM.