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March

23

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NBA Gambing: Golden State Warriors lined at 5.5 losses this postseason

04.14.2016     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly
Prop bet courtesy of Las Vegas' Southpoint Sportsbook on how many games the Golden State Warriors will lose this postseason (5.5un-130 O/U). En route to last year's title, the Warriors went 16-5 SU and 11-10 ATS.

copy_warriors.JPG

 




Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the early season MLB betting markets

04.11.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Matt Harvey lost again on Sunday, with the Mets priced as high as -280 here in Las Vegas.  Chris Archer leads the majors in strikeouts, while King Felix ranks second as I write this early Monday morning. Their two teams -- Tampa and Seattle -- teams are a combined 0-4 in the four starts from those two aces.   I closed out last week writing about how betting on aces – the guys that advanced metrics really, truly love – has evolved into a negative expectation wager over the last few years.  The quants have emerged as the dominating force in the MLB betting marketplace and there’s no way that I’ve uncovered to beat them at their own game.

So, I’ve been focusing on the opening week of the MLB season with an anti-quant mentality, looking to take advantage of what the betting markets are undervaluing, not overvaluing.  If the markets are too tilted towards starting pitching, that leaves three areas that aren’t appropriately priced, in my opinion – lineups, bullpens and streaks. 

There’s already early season action for streak bettors, with the Orioles winning while the Twins and Braves keep Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part II

04.04.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I illustrated how the quants have come to dominate the MLB betting marketplace over the course of the last few seasons, completely changing the value equation moving forward.  Advanced metric starting pitching stats have become the primary basis for all baseball moneylines, leaving a market that devalues every other aspect of the game.  That leaves opportunities for alternative strategies to succeed here in 2016 and beyond.

I used several examples last week to demonstrate my point about the modern markets.  The following example is probably the best of the bunch, using the strikeouts per nine innings advanced metric stat (K/9).

In 2005, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, AJ Burnett and Jason Schmidt.  Six of the eight starters produced a profit for their supporters, and if you bet on the leaders in the K/9 stat for the Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Leicester City could cause major damage to sportsbooks

04.04.2016     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Even if you don't follow the Premier League chances are you've heard of Leicester City's improbable (5000/1) run towards the title. With six games to go, William Hill is already offering bettors and chance for an abbreviated payout to try to limit the potential damage.


"I am a big Leicester fan and I strongly believe they will go on to win the Premier League," Herbert said, in a release by William Hill. "But my fiancé has made me acknowledge that sometimes you have to make decisions with both your head and your heart. I still have a decent chunk on Leicester and will be watching this go down to the wire."

"These types of odds are not offered in any other sport," said John Avello, director of the sports book at the Wynn in Las Vegas.

"Teams in other sports are thought to have much better chances to win than the teams at the bottom of the Premier League. It's almost like there are two teams that are the equivalent of the Patriots, two teams that are the Packers and two

Read more



Tags: Soccer




MLB Handicapping: Chicago Cubs remain hottest bet in Las Vegas

04.01.2016     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everyone and their mother...and their uncle...and apparently their neighbor is betting the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series.


“People are betting the Cubs to win the World Series like crazy,” Westgate sportsbook manager Ed Salmons said.

“I don’t do gambling outside of a March Madness (pool). I don’t get it,” Maddon said. “I really don’t want to get it. I know some people that are really motivated by it.”






Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part I

03.30.2016     11:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The nature of the sportsbetting marketplace is relatively simple to understand.  Bettors find an edge that they can profitably exploit; soon followed by bookmakers adjusting to reflect the popularity of the prevailing thought processes behind those winning wagers.  Over time, the marketplace evolves.  The factors that worked to produce profitable results for bettors get priced into the market and no longer offer that same level of value, leaving bettors scrambling to find new edges to exploit.  And this marketplace evolution can happen rather quickly; over the course of a single season when conditions warrant.

Among the major US sports over the last five years, nowhere has the betting market adjustments and evolution been greater than in baseball.  MLB handicapping methods that worked throughout the first decade of the 21st century are now largely obsolete.  The MLB betting markets have always been strongly tilted towards starting pitching matchups.  But over the last five years, the markets have rapidly adjusted to reflect the most influential ‘advanced metric’ stats for starting pitchers.

What are those Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Tournament Hard Numbers, Not Hype

03.21.2016     12:22 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The insanity that was the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the rear view mirror, and the hard numbers show a very different story than the mainstream media is reporting.  Just once, I wish I could turn on Sportscenter and find out what was going on against the spread.  But ESPN doesn’t do that, obviously, nor does CBS, TNT, TBS, TrueTV or any of the other major networks, whether they’re involved with televising the Big Dance or not.  That, of course, leaves a void for me to fill.

Carnage!  Madness! Brackets in flames, in shreds!  That was the message from the networks over the weekend.  Bettors, however, saw a very different story.  Betting favorites, in fact, had a winning weekend against the spread over the first four full days of the tournament.

I threw out all the games where there was no true favorite; games with a pointspread of -1.5 or less.  Many of those games — like Notre Dame vs Stephen F Austin on Sunday; a disastrous result for many books — had a switch of favorites at some point between the opening and closing lines.  Notre Dame +1.5 and Stephen F Austin +1.5 were both Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to beat your NCAA Tournament office pool

03.14.2016     10:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I could go off on the NCAA Tournament committee for screwing the mid-majors again, something that’s becoming an annual tradition.  But complaining about the committee is akin to complaining about the weather – everybody does it, but it doesn’t help one iota.  Instead, in this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’m going to focus on the casual fan and strategies for winning office pool bracket contests.

It’s bracket time, the annual intrusion every March of the general public into our college basketball sportsbetting world.  And when it comes to filling out brackets, there aren’t many bigger experts than Ed Feng from thepowerrank.com, who I had the chance to interview last week.

Feng is an interesting guy, earning his PhD from Stanford – he’s no dummy.  He’s written for Grantland , Deadspin and Bleacher Report, just to name a few of the sites he’s been affiliated with.  Last year, advanced analytics website FiveThirtyEight.com conducted a study that found Feng’s predictions for the 2015 NCAA Tournament to be the most accurate among their forecasts, culminating in Duke’s Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




College Basketball Betting: Fourth seed Arizona favored to win PAC-12 Tournament

03.09.2016     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The PAC-12 Tournament tips off today at Las Vegas' MGM Grand Garden Arena. Seeds No. 5 through No. 12 play today with the winners facing the top four seeds in Thursday's quarterfinals. Arizona, the fourth seed, is the tournament's betting favorite. Oregon earned the top seed followed by No. 2 Utah and No. 3 California. Five of the last six tournaments have featured a 1 vs. 2 or 1 vs. 3 finals. Below are the futures odds to win the tournament courtesy of 5Dimes.

Arizona +175
Oregon +300
Utah +400
California +450
USC +1200
Colorado +2000
UCLA +2500
Washington +3300
Oregon State +3300
Stanford +6600
Arizona State +8000
Washington State +25000




Tags: College Basketball Arizona Wildcats




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance Part II

03.07.2016     08:08 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a short list of potential champs in 2016, consisting of the following 16 teams:  Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Texas A&M.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home. The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win four neutral site games in order to cut down the nets in Houston on April 4th.  And the best predictive evidence that I’ve seen for future success in neutral or hostile environments is previous success is neutral or hostile environments.  

In most years, we’ll find a sub .500 road Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers



10

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"Las Vegas'"

March

23


 
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