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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings Week 3

09.11.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think we’re getting closer to capturing the market. Not quite there yet. There were fewer head scratchers this week when comparing the transitions from last week.

It may be a mess for awhile in the 45-65 range because of volatility. A 55 may play like a 48 against quality but a 57 against other mid-50 teams. College sports are always messy because of the sheer volume of teams, and the fact that kids are inconsistent from week to week.

If you’re new to the site, these aren’t my “personal” ratings for all the teams. I’m not following college football nearly closely enough to have any real sense of probably the bottom 80 yet. This is my guess at how the market has the teams rated. I create “couplets” each week that match the Vegas spread (allotting 3 points for home field advantage), then I try to figure out where that couplet goes within the big scale. Over a few weeks, it’s not hard to hone in on a fairly good Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




NCAA Football Betting: West Virginia comes up with another solid showing on defense

09.10.2013     07:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Compared to last season, West Virginia's defensive performance against Oklahoma should be considered historic. The Mountaineers held the Sooners to 16 points (3 in the second half) in Norman after coughing up 50 in last year's meeting. Statistically they still allowed 435 total yards (316 on the ground) but managed to force four turnovers. In Week 1, WVU held William & Mary to 309 totals yards in a 24-17 win. It is hard to get too excited about the offensive explosiveness of both the Sooners and Tribe, but it is clearly a step in the right direction for West Virginia.


"Our kids, I knew we were a good defense," Patterson said after Saturday's loss. "I knew we were going to be. I think that we had a good plan, our kids felt comfortable and man, once we got into the flow of the game, I knew we could make it hard on them if we could stop the run."

"They played a heck of a game," junior Paul Millard said of WVU's defense. "Our defense came out there, they got turnovers, they did everything that we obviously

Read more



Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/5/13

09.05.2013     06:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Having given sharps time to take their shots at this week’s college football openers, I’ve updated last week’s Estimated Market Power Ratings based on the pointspreads we’re seeing midday Wednesday. Note that I use a standard 3 points for home field advantage. The numbers you see below basically represent “at-the-moment” pointspreads with that 3-point adjustment.

There are some big jumps forward and backward from last week. That’s because I surely mis-guessed in many places…and because several teams had extreme results that influenced perceptions of how they’d play out of the gate. Going through game-by-game…there were still a few head scratchers for me. I’m trying to put the couplets in the right spots on a big scale. We’ll have a better shot of representing the market’s view about a month from now.

An example: Wyoming is -28 right now over Idaho…which means they should be 25 points Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling News: Nevada thinks spread vs. UCLA is too high

08.30.2013     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Nevada at UCLA -21 O/U 66

Raise your hand if you approve of players commenting on pointspreads? Here we have Nevada, who feels the three touchdown line for Saturday's game at UCLA is "a little high."


“We’ve read about the point spread,” Pack running back Kendall Brock said. “It weighs a little in the back of your mind because it shows just how little people think about us.”

“We think it’s a little high,” said Pack offensive tackle Joel Bitonio of Saturday’s spread. “But we’ll be ready to play no matter what the point spread says. We’ll show what Nevada is made of.”



 




Tags: College Football Nevada Wolf Pack Mountain West UCLA Bruins PAC-12




College Football Gambling Preview: Boise State Broncos at Washington Huskies

08.28.2013     12:46 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boise State at Washington
Saturday, 7 pm PT - FS1
CRIS Opener:
Washington -5.5 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Washington -3.5 O/U 53
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Washington -0.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Boise State

The Washington Huskies will play their first game in newly renovated Husky Stadium on Saturday night as they host the Boise State Broncos in a rematch of last year’s Las Vegas Bowl. Boise won that game 28-26 but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites.

The Broncos will have quarterback Joe Southwick back for his second year as the starter. He started out slowly last year but gradually improved as the season progressed throwing for 2,730 yards on 66.8% completions and a 19-7 TD-INT ratio. He will have his top two receiving targets back in Matt Miller and Kirby Moore who combined for 102 receptions, more than 1,100 yards, and 6 TDs last season. They did lose their top Read more



Tags: College Football Washington Huskies PAC-12 Boise State Broncos Mountain West Ian Cameron




NCAA Football Betting Trends: Washington-Boise State rematch

08.28.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boise State at Washington -3.5 O/U 52.5

Not a huge sample size but worth noting: Home favorites facing teams they lost to in a bowl game the previous season are 7-1 SU but only 1-6-1 ATS. The margins are those eight games were 10, 3, 10, 4, 5, 3, 1, and 13. Saturday's Washington-Boise State game fits those parameters. The Broncos beat the Huskies 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl. UW is currently a 3.5-point home favorite.




Tags: College Football Washington Huskies PAC-12 Boise State Broncos Mountain West




College Football Betting: USC will play two quarterbacks vs. Hawaii

08.27.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
USC -21.5 at Hawaii O/U 53.5

Here we are with yet another team determined to start the season with a two quarterback system. According to USC head coach Lane Kiffin Max Wittek and Cody Kessler will both see time during Thursday's game at Hawaii.


"That really is how well both guys did," Kiffin told reporters after practice. "For us, we look at it as a great thing. We've got two guys that we feel great about. We don't feel like we have to limit our offense with either one of them in there."

"They've both done so well, made so many plays," Kiffin said. "It didn't show itself that one guy was above the other guy, so we do it all the time with other positions. We're not going to be stubborn and name a starter just because we're

Read more



Tags: College Football USC Trojans PAC-12 Hawaii Warriors Mountain West




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
 
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling Preview: LSU Tigers vs. TCU Horned Frogs

08.26.2013     12:46 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LSU vs. TCU
Marty Otto's Recommendation:
LSU
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN (at Cowboys Stadium)
CRIS Opener:
LSU -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: LSU -4 O/U 50

This is one of the marquee games of college football’s opening week and it’s being played on a monster stage. It’s Saturday night, on ESPN primetime, at massive Cowboys Stadium. The Tigers currently find themselves as 4-point favorites and I wouldn’t expect them to go off at anything less than that number barring a major suspension or injury.

Coaching
Les Miles enters his ninth season as head coach at LSU. His teams have managed to win at least 10 games in each of the last three years and in six of his previous eight seasons. John Chavis remains as the defensive coordinator. Cam Cameron is the new offensive coordinator after a long stint in the NFL.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson has been at the helm for 13 years Read more



Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC TCU Horned Frogs Big XII Otto Sports




College Football Betting: With Ault gone, Nevada plans on tweaking offense

08.26.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After 28 years as a head coach, Nevada's Chris Ault decided to step aside this past offseason. The Wolf Pack brought in Brian Polian who served as a special teams coach at Notre Dame, Stanford, and Texas A&M. Nick Rolovich is back for his second season as offensive coordinator. According to Rolovich, Ault called most of the plays last season. Nevada ran the ball 62% of the time but plans on expanding the passing game more with quarterback Cody Fajardo (2,786 yards, 67%, 20 TDs, 9 INTs).


“We’re going to put a little bit more on the quarterback in terms of, he will have options on certain plays — he can do this or he can do that. And certainly we’ve expanded the passing game a little bit and that’s Nick’s influence. The core beliefs of what we do, that won’t change. But there will be wrinkles.”

“Coach Ault definitely called the majority of the plays,” Rolovich said. “We talked mostly during the week on

Read more



Tags: College Football Nevada Wolf Pack Mountain West



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