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February

28

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College Football Betting: With Ault gone, Nevada plans on tweaking offense

08.26.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After 28 years as a head coach, Nevada's Chris Ault decided to step aside this past offseason. The Wolf Pack brought in Brian Polian who served as a special teams coach at Notre Dame, Stanford, and Texas A&M. Nick Rolovich is back for his second season as offensive coordinator. According to Rolovich, Ault called most of the plays last season. Nevada ran the ball 62% of the time but plans on expanding the passing game more with quarterback Cody Fajardo (2,786 yards, 67%, 20 TDs, 9 INTs).


“We’re going to put a little bit more on the quarterback in terms of, he will have options on certain plays — he can do this or he can do that. And certainly we’ve expanded the passing game a little bit and that’s Nick’s influence. The core beliefs of what we do, that won’t change. But there will be wrinkles.”

“Coach Ault definitely called the majority of the plays,” Rolovich said. “We talked mostly during the week on Read more



Tags: College Football Nevada Wolf Pack Mountain West




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Notes: Trench play a key for Rutgers-Fresno State matchup

08.13.2013     07:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Rutgers at Fresno State -10

An in-game matchup to consider for Week 1’s Rutgers-Fresno State game. FSU's offensive line reportedly struggled during a recent scrimmage allowing 15 tackles for loss and seven sacks (some of which by the second and third string). Last season the Bulldogs allowed 29 sacks though attempted over 500 passes. They went the entire regular season without allowing more than three sacks in a game before surrendering seven against SMU in the Hawaii Bowl.


"Do we need to move a tackle in to guard? What do we need to do to get our best five out there?" DeRuyter said. "We're going to get together, look at this tape really hard and make some tough decisions about who are those guys."



Rutgers meanwhile feels it can take Read more


Tags: College Football Fresno State Bulldogs Mountain West Rutgers Scarlet Knights AAC




College Football Gambling: Nowhere to go but up for West Virginia's defense

08.06.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Every bettor on the planet knows that West Virginia's defense was awful last season. And with only three returning starters on offense, the stop unit is going to need to improve if the Mountaineers plan on being competitive in the Big XII (lined at 6un-109 wins at Pinnacle). Keith Patterson will serve as the lone defensive coordinator after sharing duties last season. The stop unit returns seven starters but as Patterson noted, "having a lot of people back is not necessarily a good thing." The good news for WVU is that four of their first five conference foes will be breaking in a new quarterback (Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas Tech). Those four teams combined for 1,676 passing yards and 54.3 ppg vs. WVU in 2012. 


“(Defensive lineman Shaq) Rowell said he looks at the stats to remind him. He says it motivates him,” said returning cornerback Broderick Jenkins. “If it doesn’t motivate you, I don’t think you are in the right mode of thinking. If Read more



Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII




College Football Handicapping: Preseason Power Ratings

08.06.2013     06:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As most of you in the markets know, CRIS posted Week One lines for college football this past weekend. Those lines have had time to move…as sharp action has hit the offshore board. That’s helped solidify how “the market” sees the 2013 college football season in the days leading up to everyone’s openers.

I’ve used those “improved” lines (oddsmakers openers plus sharp influence) to update our first crack at estimated Power Ratings. First, I’ll run through the top 10 or so, which will give you a chance to compare them to preseason polls. Then, I’ll go through each board conference. Again, these aren’t how I would personally rate the teams. This is my guess at how “the market” as a composite has the teams rated on a standard Power Ratings scale. You regulars know that I typically stick “championship caliber” at 85 and work down from that. This year’s Alabama squad is seen as a bit better than Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting Alert: Hawaii fires offensive coordinator

08.02.2013     03:44 PM     Printer Friendly
Well this isn't good. Hawaii head coach Norm Chow just fired offensive coordinator Aaron Price. Price was hired back in February. Chow said "some issues have arisen" and the team was moving forward. Hawaii opens the season as a 22.5-point underdog vs. USC.



Tags: College Football Hawaii Warriors Mountain West




Reno sportsbook shades line for local team

08.01.2013     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Reno's Peppermill Sportsbook opened Nevada's regular season over/under wins at 4.5 – a very opinionated numbered compared to other books. Due to the influx of over money, they've since moved their number to 5.5. According to Peppermill's sportsbook director, the low opener was by design so that local fans could bet their team over. 5Dimes has the Wolf Pack lined at 6.5un-185 or 5.5ov-165.



Tags: College Football Nevada Wolf Pack Mountain West




College Football Betting: Mountain West Conference preview

07.18.2013     08:05 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

Mountain West Conference Preview

Quarterback Driven League: The starting quarterback play in this conference is as deep and as talented as it has ever been. Returnees Derek Carr (Fresno State), David Fales (San Jose State), Cody Fajardo (Nevada), Chuckie Keeton (Utah State), Brett Smith (Wyoming), Nick Sherry (U.N.L.V.) Joe Southwick (Boise State) and Conner Smith all figure to either equal or increase their team’s offensive production of last season.

New Head Coaches: Nevada, San Jose State and Utah State will all have new head coaches this season. Utah State promoted from within as last season’s OC Matt Wells takes over and their transition should be seamless. The schemes remain in pace on each side of the ball and play during the spring practice session drew solid reviews from HC Wells. While the base systems will remain the same, the coordinators are new. OC Kevin McGiven was the OC at Montana State LY while DC Todd Orlando held the same position at Florida international LY.

At Nevada, Brian Polian takes over for Wolfpack legendary HC Chris Ault. Read more


Tags: CFB MWC Rob Veno




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings (w/ Mid-Majors)

06.26.2013     10:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I know I promised some baseball for the late Tuesday report. Ended up spending the evening logging college football stuff out of Athlon. Turned into quite the filibuster! So it's midnight ET, and it's probably better to just tweak a prior football report. I re-checked the "Game of the Year" lines from the Golden Nugget so I could add in the mid-majors that were missed in the earlier estimate of market power ratings.

Mid-Majors (the handful mentioned in GOY lines)

Boise State 68 (Mountain West)

Tulsa 63 (Conference USA)

San Diego State 60 (Mountain West)

Navy 55 (Independent)

Nevada 53 (Mountain West)

Colorado State 50 (Mountain West)

Southern Miss 49 (Conference USA)

UNLV 48 (Mountain West)

Central Michigan 47 (MAC)

Army 46 (Independent)

We have a few new readers and twitter followers (@jefffogle) Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence



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