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NCAA Tournament Gambling Odds: Duke and South Dakota State top first round consensus

03.20.2013     06:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for the NCAA Tournament according to Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager. We can't help but notice the reactionary nature of some of the side selections. The world has officially been introduced to South Dakota State's Nate Wolters whereas Michigan is everyone’s favorite pick for “peaked too soon.” New Mexico is fresh off its Mountain West title – conveniently shown on CBS. And perhaps the most obvious knee-jerk reaction is the fade on Syracuse who suffered one of the biggest meltdowns of the season in the second half of the Big East title game against Louisville.

Top Sides
Duke -17.5 77.8%
vs. Read more


Tags: College Basketball




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: No. 12 California Golden Bears vs. No. 5 UNLV Rebels

03.19.2013     12:13 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament - Midwest Region
Thursday, 4:25 pm PT, at San Jose, Calif.
No. 12 California vs. No. 5 UNLV
CRIS Opener: UNLV -2.5 O.U 132
CRIS Current: UNLV -2.5 O/U 131
Recommendation: California


There are a couple oddities surrounding this game that I certainly wouldn’t expect to see very often in the “second” round of the NCAA Tournament. Firstly this is a non-conference rematch of a regular season game between these two squads and secondly it’s a virtual home game for a No. 12 seed. In yet another strange twist Cal was originally drawn as a No. 11 seed only to be moved down due to logistical reasons according to the selection committee! The Golden Bears were defeated at home in the first meeting on a last second tip-in by UNLV; this despite the fact that the Rebels had lost their best player at the time – Mike Moser – to a dislocated elbow. Is revenge in the air or can UNLV muster that same strength Read more


Tags: College Basketball UNLV Running Rebels California Golden Bears Otto Sports




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for St. Mary's/MTSU and Boise State/La Salle

03.19.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m going to skip the two play-in games on the #16 seed rung because those teams are so obscure…and basically irrelevant for the week. Here are some notes on the other two play in games. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee will be played Tuesday night in Dayton, Boise State/LaSalle on Wednesday night.

Hybrid Estimates

St. Mary’s: +12.8 average margin in Big West, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 75.31

Middle Tennessee: +16.5 average margin in the Sun Belt, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 69.51

Middle Tennessee is +3.7 on the raw total, but St. Mary’s played in a conference that was +5.8 points better. So, that’s St. Mary’s by 2.1 points. The Vegas line as I write this is St. Mary’s. Pretty close there.

Boise State: +1.1 average margin in the Mountain West, which has a Sagarin rating of 80.71

LaSalle: +5.5 average margin in the Atlantic 10, which has a Sagarin rating of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders St. Mary's Gaels Boise State Broncos La Salle Explorers Stat Intelligence




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers takes a look at 28 NCAA Tournament matchups

03.18.2013     10:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets.  Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday.  Games are listed in rotation order.

Missouri spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament.  Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of Colorado State’s talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.

As a No. 3 seed, Marquette is only a 3.5-point favorite over No. 14 seed Davidson.  The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.

Butler has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings

03.18.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw down numbers after the first set of Vegas lines went up. These are based on early numbers, and could change over the next few days. If you’re new to the website, these are my estimates of how “the market” has its Power Ratings heading into the Big Dance. They’re based on the estimates we’ve been updating continually through the season, and the current numbers in Tuesday/Thursday/Friday action.

Note that the market loves Florida, Arizona, and Pittsburgh more than the polls or selection committee did…which has been true or several weeks. And, for you regulars, the ACC may be getting more respect in the market that I had been guessing in recent days based on the early prices for NC and NC State, and possibly the Mountain West too the way things are shading with some of those teams.

First, by seed.

1…Louisville 87, Indiana 87, Gonzaga 85, Kansas 84

2…Duke 86, Ohio State 84, Miami 83, Georgetown Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: UNLV short favorites in rematch vs. California

03.18.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
California vs. UNLV -3

The Mountain West Conference is well represented in this year's NCAA Tournament with five teams making the field. Of those five teams, four are currently favored in their first round matchups including UNLV (-3) vs. California (at San Jose). The Rebels won in Berkeley earlier this season, 76-75, and 1.5-point underdogs.


“Any time when you have a game like that where it was very close, I think the advantage goes to the loser of the first matchup,” said LVH Superbook Executive Director Jay Kornegay. “I think Cal will be a little more motivated to beat UNLV than the other way around. UNLV is going to have to overcome that.”






Tags: College Basketball UNLV Running Rebels California Golden Bears




College Basketball Handicapping: Hybrid Power Ratings

03.13.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Updated these today. If you’re new to the blog….what you see below are a combination of:

*The team’s average margin in conference play ONLY

*Adjusted for conference strength based on Jeff Sagarin’s conference ratings (scroll way down)

Sagarin has the Big 10 as the best conference in the nation. So, I just used the normal margin averages for Big 10 teams. For the other teams:

Big East: margin average -1.5

Big 12: margin average -2.4

ACC: margin average -3.5

Mountain West: margin average -3.8

Pac 12: margin average -4.2

SEC: margin average -4.5

Atlantic 10: margin average -5.9

Missouri Valley: margin average -7.7

West Coast: margin average -9.2

Conference USA: margin average -10.3

Horizon: margin average -11.8

Metro-Atlantic: margin average -12.1

Colonial: margin average -13.5

Sun Belt: margin -15.1

Ohio Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




Mountain West Tournament Betting Preview

03.12.2013     01:44 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Mountain West Tournament Preview
 
The Mountain West Conference Tournament features nine teams, with five of them in position to earn an NCAA berth. As a result, this year’s tournament should be a wide open affair. The contenders include top seed New Mexico, No. 2 Colorado State, No. 3 (and host) UNLV, No. 4 San Diego State and No. 5 Boise State. The Aztecs have had the most success in the tournament in recent years with four straight championship game appearances and two titles including last year.
 
First Round Pick: Air Force
Air Force had a surprising 8-8 finish in the conference, just two games behind UNLV’s 10-6 mark. They also played UNLV very tough, beating the Rebels by 15 on their home court and falling in overtime here back in January. UNLV was 7-1 SU on its home court in conference play, but covered just twice and won by more than 10 just twice, against bottom feeders Nevada and Wyoming. They lost their last home game to Fresno State and also struggled to beat Boise State in their next to last game, winning by just four. Air Force did have some poor efforts away from home this year, but Read more


Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow




Health of Wyoming's Washington the key to handicapping MWC Tournament opener vs. Nevada

03.12.2013     06:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Nevada vs. Wyoming -3 O/U 119.5

It looks like Wyoming will have the services of forward Leonard Washington for tonight's Mountain West Tournament play-in game against Nevada. Earlier this week an MRI of his back came back negative. Of UW's last five games, Washington was a factor only once, netting 15 points and 13 rebounds in a 72-66 loss at Air Force. Against San Diego State and UNLV he didn't play and the Cowboys lost by 28 and 23. And in 31 minutes of action over his last two games, Washington netted only three points and UW lost by 11 at New Mexico and 22 in the regular season finale vs. Colorado State. Wyoming beat Nevada in both regular season meetings, 59-48 and 68-48. Washington popped for 16 points, 13 rebounds and 16 points, 12 rebounds. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys Nevada Wolf Pack




College Basketball Betting Recap: Overrated Arizona Loses Again, Gets Swept by UCLA

03.03.2013     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I guess this has become a mini-series. Arizona is now 5-12 ATS in Pac 12 play…2-0 vs. Washington State and 3-12 vs. everybody else. They were already set to sink from their lofty (and inexplicable) #11 ranking in the AP poll because of a loss earlier this week at USC. Will this kick them out of the top 20? Will Joe Lunardi finally drop them below a #4 seed in his Bracketology?

Before tonight’s loss, Kenpom had them at #19, Jeff Sagarin at #24. And, those were heavily influenced by the strong start Arizona had to its season. Since Pac 12 play began, they’ve been a continual disappointment. They now have SIX losses in league play. And, it’s not a great league. It’s a competitive league…but because of depth of #10-seed type teams not because of greatness.

Here are the numbers.

UCLA 74, Arizona 69

2-Point Percentage: Arizona 44%, UCLA 49%

3-Point Shooting: Arizona 10/22, UCLA 7/17

Free Read more


Tags: College Basketball Arizona Wildcats UCLA Bruins Stat Intelligence



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