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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet college basketball in February

02.18.2013     07:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance. In between? This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!

The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about morphing teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative. There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.

Who are some of these teams? Why are they morphing now? Read on to find out!

I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great. Georgetown certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests. The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in Read more


Tags: College Basketball Georgetown Hoyas Saint Louis Billikens Air Force Falcons UNLV Running Rebels Wyoming Cowboys Creighton Blue Jays Michigan Wolverines Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's worst against the spread

02.11.2013     07:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a look at the best pointspread teams in all of college basketball, with the goal of assessing which teams were most likely to continue their ATS success down the stretch. This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be overvalued as February rolls into March? Let’s find out!

The single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball this year has been IUPUI (Indiana-Purdue, Indianapolis); the type of team that only wiseguys bet on or against on a regular basis. At 5-17 ATS, no team in all of college basketball has suffered more pointspread defeats than the Jaguars this year. The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps.

IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, covering just a single pointspread at home all year. They’ve been besieged with injuries and attrition; Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




College Basketball Handicapping: Close games in the Big East, blowouts in the SEC

01.30.2013     01:28 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are a few conference-only statistics from Ken Pom that break down home courts (SU), close games (4 points or less and/or OT), and blowouts (19 points or more). There are 33 conferences if you include independent. Below are the top 10 conferences and rank. In terms of home court, the ACC has been the strongest at 30-11 SU. The Missouri Valley Conference is also north of 70%. The Big East has had the highest percentage of close game at 30.9% with the A-10 not far behind at 27.3%. Interesting that despite its slow pace (63.4 possessions per game) and low scoring affairs, only six of 46 Big Ten conference games have been decided by four points or less or went to overtime. When it comes to blowouts, the SEC is top dog with 25% of its games decided by 19 points or more – in large part because of Florida who has five of the 11.
 
Big Ten
Home Court: 26-20, 56.5% (23)
Close Game: 6 of 46, 13.0% (28)
Blowout: 9 of 46, 19.6% (7)

Big East
Home Court: 30-25, 54.5% (26)
Close Game: 17 of 55, 30.9% (2)
Blowout: 5 of 55, 9.1% Read more


Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Betting: Fresno State leaning heavily on freshmen in tough Mountain West

01.16.2013     12:02 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There have been times this season Fresno State's men's basketball team has had three and even four freshmen on the floor at the same time. That’s a tough way to go in the Mountain West, which is rated the second (Sagarin) or third (RPIratings.com) toughest conference in the country.

Coach Rodney Terry knows this, often using the refrain, "It's not going to happen overnight." The youth and inexperience may have cost FSU a win in the final minutes at No. 16 San Diego State last week.

Four freshmen have logged a total of 1,010 minutes already and it could be more, considering guard Marvelle Harris (373 minutes) has played 20 minutes or less four times, center Robert Upshaw (234 minutes) missed the first three games coming back from a knee injury, point guard Aaron Anderson (224 minutes) didn't make his first start until the 12th game of the season, and forward/center Tanner Giddings (179 minutes) did not play in one game and logged less than 10 minutes in five others.

Fresno State is getting more than twice as many minutes from freshman than any other Mountain West school except for UNLV. While 82.4% of the Rebels freshman minutes have been Read more


Tags: College Basketball Fresno State Bulldogs Rob Veno Mountain West




Mountain West Betting News and Notes 1-15-2013

01.15.2013     06:59 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wyoming Suspends Second-Leading Scorer Luke Martinez

Luke Martinez has been suspended indefinitely from the Wyoming basketball team as the result of a bar fight last month that left him with a broken finger.

According to the Star-Tribune, there were charges filed against Martinez this weekend as a result of the incident.

Martinez is the second-leading scorer for the Cowboys, a team that remained undefeated until last week and that has set themselves up nicely for a run at an NCAA tournament berth. There is no doubt that this injury — and the suspension — puts a dent into those plans.

Head coach Larry Shyatt has said that Martinez will not return to the team until the legal system has taken its course. For now, the Cowboys are going with a starting lineup consisting of three point guards and a pair Read more


Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys Air Force Falcons Colorado State Rams Nevada Wolf Pack Rob Veno




College Basketball Betting: West Virginia considers lineup changes

01.09.2013     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
West Virginia at Texas -4.5 O/U 125.5

No shortage of topics when it comes to West Virginia basketball these days. Beat writers have already worn out the lack of toughness/no leadership angles. Now they’re going the potential lineup change route. The Mountaineers' big men have vastly underachieved and as a result, the team has been killed on the boards. Head coach Bob Huggins, who may or may not punch someone or something before the year is out, is considering going the small-ball route. The only problem is the team is shooting 28.7% from three. The Mountaineers have shot better than 50% eFG twice this season (vs. Marist and Oakland). Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the country in Texas (0.84 points per posession allowed).


''You sit here and you think, 'maybe we play smaller,' Read more



Tags: College Basketball West Virginia Mountaineers Texas Longhorns




College Basketball Handicapping: Midseason conference title probabilities

01.02.2013     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly
Using 2012's results, Ken Pom ran a bunch of simulations to come up with the probability of each regular season conference champ.

ACC - Duke 87.97%
America East - Stony Brook 44.43%
Atlantic-10 - VCU 63.64%
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast 44.99%
Big East - Louisville 57.85%
Big Sky - Weber State 74.81%
Big South - NC Asheville 38.30%
Big Ten - Read more


Tags: College Basketball




Pinstripe Bowl Betting Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange

12.28.2012     11:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

copy_bowl_preview_2011.jpg

Pinstripe Bowl - Bronx, NY
Saturday, December 29, 12:15 pm PT - ESPN2
West Virginia vs. Syracuse
CRIS Opener:
West Virginia -3.5 O/U 73.5
CRIS Current: West Virginia -3.5 O/U 71.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: West Virginia -4.5

Who is going to force more than two punts is the general feeling most bettors have heading into Saturday’s Pinstripe Bowl. I don't see either team with a significant motivational edge. Syracuse is obviously pleased to being playing in the postseason and within proximity to the venue. West Virginia may not be as giddy but I do give the Mountaineers credit for not completely packing it in the final few weeks of the regular season. They also have a little bit of revenge on their minds as these two teams met last season and Syracuse cruised to a 49-23 win as 14-point home underdogs. And in 2010, Syracuse again came up aces against the Mountaineers, Read more


Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII Syracuse Orange Big East Andrew Lange




Armed Forces Bowl Gambling Preview: Air Force Falcons vs. Rice Owls

12.27.2012     05:55 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

copy_bowl_preview_2011.jpg

Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, Texas
Saturday, December 29, 8:45 am PT - ESPN
Air Force vs. Rice
CRIS Opener:
Rice pk O/U 60.5
CRIS Current: Air Force -3 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Air Force -0.5

Rice (6-6, 4-4 C-USA) won five of its last six games, including four in a row, to become bowl eligible for the first time since playing in the 2008 Texas Bowl. It will be the 10th bowl appearance in the school's history. "There's an enthusiasm and pride right now with everybody associated with Rice," coach David Bailiff said. "I've never been more proud of a bunch of young men that stuck together and made this possible. They refused to lose." Rice certainly enters this game with the requisite amount of motivation and enthusiasm to expect a good effort, especially since they’ve been shut out from playing in the postseason the last three years. Air Force went Read more


Tags: College Football Air Force Falcons Mountain West Rice Owls C-USA Ian Cameron




Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

12.19.2012     02:17 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

copy_bowl_preview_2011.jpg

Hawaii Bowl – Honolulu
Monday, December 24, 5 pm PT – ESPN
SMU vs. Fresno State
CRIS Opener:
Fresno State -12.5 O/U 60.5
CRIS Current: Fresno State -12.5 O/U 59.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Fresno State -11

It was another up and down season for head coach June Jones the SMU Mustangs. They were the perfect definition of mediocre at 6-6 overall and 5-3 in C-USA play. They won back-to-back games only once but by all reports are motivated and excited to be traveling to the island for the Hawaii Bowl to take on the Fresno State. Jones on his team’s postseason berth: "Having been affiliated with this bowl since its inception, I know that it is one of the best bowl experiences in college football. I'm very excited for our players, staff and fans. This is a special experience." SMU has been to three previous bowl games under Jones going 2-1 SU Read more


Tags: College Football SMU Mustangs C-USA Fresno State Bulldogs Mountain West Ian Cameron



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 31, 2014 08:32 AM.