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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Joe Flacco pass attempts

01.29.2013     02:10 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Joe Flacco Pass Attempts
Recommendation: Over 33.5 (-150 @ 5Dimes)


My thinking behind this prop is fairly straightforward. I don’t see the Ravens being able to get their running game going against the staunch 49ers defensive front. Baltimore running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were held in check by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship with just 100 rushing yards. New England had the 9th ranked run defense in the NFL this season. San Francisco has the 4th ranked run defense allowing a paltry 94.2 yards per game. I don’t anticipate seeing a lot of success running the football for Baltimore once again this week and that will force Joe Flacco into passing situations early and often if the Ravens are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board.

Flacco’s pass attempts skyrocketed upward in Baltimore’s last two playoff games. He threw the football 34 times against Denver despite the Ravens run game working well that day and he threw the football 36 times against New England. Part of it was because the run game didn’t work against the Patriots but also because Flacco is playing Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Ian Cameron




Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense

01.25.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:

The Harbaugh brother angle

Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia

Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status

Ray Lewis’s retirement

Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.

Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes

I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Drive Points and Power Ratings for Super Bowl XLVII

01.21.2013     01:41 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, we’re back to look at the drive point numbers for the two remaining teams in the NFL brackets. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. We’ve been using it through the regular season to try and get a read as best as possible on “true” offense and defense.

First, a reminder of the regular season averages for the Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.

Regular Season Averages

San Francisco: 15.4 on offense, 11.6 on defense (#3 Sagarin schedule)

Baltimore: 15.7 on offense, 12.5 on defense (#18 Sagarin schedule)

The Niners get the nod in regular season numbers, with +3.8 vs. a killer schedule being better than +3.2 vs. what was roughly an average schedule. Is strength of schedule enough to bump them up to superiority by more than a field goal at a neutral site? Interesting that teams coached by brothers had such similar Read more


Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming

01.18.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.

New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.

For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Public lined up on San Francisco, Baltimore, and both overs

01.18.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at few betting consensuses for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.

OddsShark shows 63.1% lined up on San Francisco while underdog Baltimore checks in at 55.6%. The over for both games is right at 64%.

Sports Options shows a similar output with 71% of the "public" on the 49ers and 57% on the Ravens. Both totals again, at 60% or more to the over.

Bookmaker's numbers are even stronger – these represent the number of bets, not handle. San Fran has taken a whopping 74.6% of bets and the over (wow!) at 83.8%. Baltimore is just shy of 60% and the over at 77.7%.



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling News: Super Bowl XLVII betting lines

01.14.2013     02:02 PM     Printer Friendly
Here are your look-ahead lines for Super Bowl XLVII courtesy of 5Dimes.

AFC -2.5 (-115) vs. NFC
San Francisco -3.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -2 vs. San Francisco
Atlanta -1.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -5.5 vs. Atlanta



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl XLVII




NFL Gambling Trends: New England Patriots 8-3 ATS with same season revenge

01.14.2013     01:12 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at New England -9 O/U 51.5

One angle to consider in your handicap of the AFC Championship Game this weekend is same season revenge. Over the past ten seasons the New England Patriots are 8-3 SU and ATS when playing with same season revenge. If we pare that down to same season revenge while playing at home they are a remarkable 6-0 SU and ATS. Baltimore defeated New England way back in Week 3 in a game the Ravens led for only about five minutes.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Championship News and Quotes

01.14.2013     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday. I’ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words. This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches. Who’s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season? In Part II, we take a look at the AFC Championship with New England a 9-point favorite vs. Baltimore. Click here for the NFC.

New England Patriots – All the Patriots quotes come straight out of ‘Coach Speak 101’ – New England is not a great team for publicizing what’s going on internally, and they certainly won’t say anything to give their opponent any sort of motivational edge.  That being said, there was legitimate concern on the roster following the season ending injury for their top red zone threat, tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Tom Brady following his NFL Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




New England Patriots are nearly even money to win Super Bowl XLVII

01.14.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Will your team win Super Bowl XLVII? Here are the current odds courtesy of Pinnacle.

New England Patriots
Yes +107
No -120

San Francisco 49ers
Yes +199
No -222

Atlanta Falcons
Yes +590
No -730

Baltimore Ravens
Yes +865
No -1200



Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Trends: Teams that won by 20+ during regular season only 3-7 ATS in playoff rematch

01.08.2013     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at New England -9 O/U 47.5

A quick database search shows that NFL teams that won by 20 points or more during the regular season were 6-4 SU but only 3-7 ATS against those teams in the postseason (dating back to 2003). Note also that of those 10 games, eight went over the total. New England beat Houston 42-14 at 5.5-point home favorites back in Week 15. Ironically, the last instance where this occurred was two years ago when the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 but lost in the Divisional Round 28-21 at 9.5-point favorites.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans



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