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NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Friday Night's Results and Stats

08.10.2013     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Just like last night, let’s crunch some numbers in market rotation order. If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15.

Miami 27, Jacksonville 3

Total Yardage: Miami 267, Jacksonville 289

Passing Stats: Miami 15-26-1-161, Jacksonville 23-42-2-163

Turnovers: Miami 1, Jacksonville 4

Drive Points: Miami 7, Jacksonville 3

Stat Score: Miami 17, Jacksonville 19

Very important to pay attention to the numbers here. If you were scoreboard watching all night, you probably assumed Miami was playing much sharper because of their one-week head start. They seemed to be in command the whole way, and won a blowout. But, the offense Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Gambling: Vick to start Eagles' preseason opener vs. Patriots

08.07.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Philadelphia -4 O/U 40.5

Chip Kelly insists the quarterback competition between Michael Vick and Nick Foles is alive and well. That said, one of the two will start Friday's preseason opener against New England. As of Wednesday afternoon, it looks like Vick will get the nod. Not surprising that Friday's game features the highest total (by 4 points) on the board.




Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: Team-by-Team Turnover Margin 2010-12

07.23.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is a chart of NFL turnover margins over the past three seasons. During that span, New England was a combined +70… +29 ahead of no. 2 Green Bay (+41). New England, Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago, and Baltimore posted plus margins each of the past three seasons. Miami, Indianapolis, Denver, Arizona, Minnesota, and Oakland posted negative margins each of the past three seasons. Last season's biggest "gainers" include Washington (-14 to +17), Chicago (+2 to +20), Tampa Bay (-16 to +3), Arizona (-13 to -1), and Denver (-12 to -1). Last season's biggest "losers" include San Francisco (+28 to +9), Green Bay (+24 to +7), Detroit (+11 to -16), and Kansas City (-2 to -24). 

NFL Turnover Margin 2010-12
Team
2012
2011
2010
Total
Arizona Cardinals
-1
-13
-5
-19
Atlanta Falcons
13
8
14
35
Baltimore Ravens
9
2
7
18
Buffalo Bills
-13
1
-17
-29
Carolina Panthers
1
1
-8
-6
Chicago Bears
20
2
4
26
Cincinnati Bengals
4
0
-8
-4
Cleveland Browns
3
1
-1
3
Dallas Cowboys
-13
4
0
-9
Denver Broncos
-1
-12
-9
-22
Detroit Lions
-16
11
4
-1
Green Bay Packers
7
24
10
41
Houston Texans
12
7
0
19
Indianapolis Colts
-12
-12
-4
-28
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3
5
-15
-13
Kansas City Chiefs
-24
-2
9
-17
Miami Dolphins
-10
-6
-12
-28
Minnesota Vikings
-1
-3
-11
-15
New England Patriots
25
17
28
70
New Orleans Saints
2
-3
-6
-7
New York Giants
14
7
-3
18
New York Jets
-14
-3
9
-8
Oakland Raiders
-7
-4
-2
-13
Philadelphia Eagles
-24
-14
9
-29
Pittsburgh Steelers
-10
-13
17
-6
San Diego Chargers
2
-7
-6
-11
San Francisco 49ers
9
28
-1
36
Seattle Seahawks
13
8
-9
12
St. Louis Rams
-1
-5
5
-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3
-16
9
-4
Tennessee Titans
-4
1
-4
-7
Washington Redskins
17
-14
-4
-1





Tags: NFL New England Patriots




MLB Handicapping: Los Angeles Dodgers Dominating Division Lately

07.09.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Lost amidst all the Puig-headed arguing about how great six-week stats have to be to earn an All-Star invitation…is the message that the Los Angeles Dodgers have been sending lately to the rest of the NL West.

After Monday Night’s 6-1 victory in Arizona, the Dodgers are 7-4, with a 59-38 run differential in their last 11 ROAD games in the division. Not 7-4 with a split schedule. Seven of 11 with a big run differential only counting games away from home against the teams they need to beat to reach the playoffs. Strong stuff.

The offense has been lethal lately with both Puig and Ramirez putting up monster numbers (they were 5 of 10 combined tonight with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI). Kershaw is the ace of the league. Greinke was back in form tonight. If recently acquired Nolasco from Florida can settle down the back end of the rotation…we could have a rags to riches story that moves very quickly. The Dodgers play two more games in Arizona before hosting Colorado Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Notes on Power Ratings for the 2013 Season

07.05.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As we get closer to the NFL season, you’re going to see a lot of prediction articles in the mainstream and stathead media. The fact that Las Vegas now actively markets and publicizes their Regular Season Win Total propositions has certainly helped. Sportwriters and fans loved making predictions anyway. Now there’s an outline of expectations that people can refer too.

The stathead articles in this area all basically say the same thing over and over again. This has been true for years. I used to ghostwrite them myself…until it got boring just repeating the same things over and over again. The general themes are:
 
*Assume that turnover extremes will regress toward the mean

*Assume that records in close games will regress toward the mean

*Be skeptical of teams with bad point differentials who had decent records

*Be sure you know who played easy schedules and who played hard schedules

*Remember who had key injuries, and pencil in good Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more



Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling News: Aaron Hernandez arrested, released by Patriots

06.26.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
The Aaron Hernandez saga probably isn't on many bettors' radar – what would an NFL offseason be like without a bunch of dudes in legal limbo? However, news just broke that Hernandez not only was arrested but released from the New England Patriots. Now THAT is something bettors will notice. Of course it just adds to the Pats' already dire receiver situation.

copy_hernandez.JPG




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines

05.13.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.

Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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