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Comparing Football Outsiders' and Pinnacle's Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds

01.08.2013     06:35 AM     Printer Friendly
The chart below compares the current conference and Super Bowl odds from Football Outsiders and Pinnacle. Most of the odds are similar with Seattle to win the NFL having the largest discrepancy – 30% according to Football Outsiders, 21.4% (+367) according to Pinnacle.

NFL Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds
FO Conference
Pinny Conference
FO Super Bowl
Pinny Super Bowl
+107 (48.3%)
+266 (27.3%)
New England
+144 (40.9%)
+321 (23.7%)
+367 (21.4%)
+680 (12.8%)
San Francisco
+198 (33.5%)
+541 (15.6%)
Green Bay
+332 (23.1%)
+694 (12.5%)
+246 (28.9%)
+721 (12.1%)
+1052 (8.6%)
+1800 (5.2%)
+991 (9.1%)
+1800 (5.2%)

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVII

College Basketball Handicapping: Oddsmakers, bettors overvalue Pittsburgh Panthers

01.07.2013     01:38 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Everyone knows Ken Pomeroy has a huge impact of the betting markets. Rarely do we see pointspreads or totals stray too far from Pomery's "predictions" unless there is a significant injury. But one ranking in particular has caught my eye. Last season, Pittsburgh finished 63rd (22-17, 5-13 Big East) in Pomeroy's rankings. Given Pitt's history of success and returning talent, the Panthers opened the year ranked 22nd – a mark that seemed fairly reasonable. But for whatever reason, Pitt skyrocketed up the rankings despite playing a soft, home friendly schedule. Heading into December 19th's game against Delaware State, the Panthers were 5th, despite playing one legitimate opponent; Michigan, on a neutral court and the Wolverines won 67-62. There were a handful of decent foes like Lehigh, Delaware and Detroit, but those games were at home and Pitt as expected won rather easily.

So then Big East play started and despite its very limited resume, Pitt closed as a 6-point home favorite over Cincinnati – a game the Bearcats won outright 70-61. Then last weekend, the Panthers took to the road to face Rutgers and were getting bet like people already knew the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Pittsburgh Panthers Georgetown Hoyas Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling: Top seed Atlanta Falcons played league's easiest schedule

01.07.2013     01:12 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Interesting trend spotted by ESPN's John Clayton in regards to No. 1 seeds that play the easiest schedule in the league. Atlanta's SOS based on opponents’' winning percentage was a league-low .422. Note that Sagarin rates the Falcons 26th. Anyway, according to Clayton, four of the last five No. 1 seeds with the lowest strength of schedule reached the Super Bowl.

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four

01.07.2013     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.

It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers

Big weekend for Las Vegas bettors and sportsbooks

01.04.2013     12:59 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas sportsbooks gear up for a big weekend starting with Saturday's two NFL Wild Card matchups and ending Monday with the BCS National Championship.

“The national championship game will be equivalent to the pro games for us,” Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Director John Avello said. “Normally, the pro games are bigger, but this year they’re all going to be big writes.”

“I’d suggest that game will be the biggest turning point of the weekend,” Vaccaro said. “I’m almost sure we’ll need Minnesota, but not because of straight bets. The Packers will be tied into every parlay and teaser.”

“People who are betting Alabama are going to lay the 9.5 points,” Vaccaro said. “But there are a lot of people who would just rather root for Notre Dame to win. We’ve gotten a little attacked on the Notre Dame moneyline. That’s what we’re seeing so far, and I think that could be what we keep seeing.”

Tags: College Football NFL Las Vegas

College Football Handicapping: Texas A&M has advantages over Oklahoma

01.04.2013     08:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

Texas A&M -3 vs. Oklahoma O/U 72.5

Even in the era of pass-happy offenses, running the football and stopping the run remain vital when it comes to covering pointspreads. If you buy into that philosophy, then you should be interested in tonight's Cotton Bowl. According to our ACCU-Stats, Texas A&M has a significant edge over Oklahoma in the run game. 


The Aggies average 6.22 ypc and allow 4.81 ypc. The Sooners meanwhile average 5.03 ypc and allow 5.53 ypc. A little math shows A&M to be +1.09 ypc and +0.73 ypca. Alabama, who is currently a 10-point favorite over Notre Dame in the BCS Championship, is +0.67 ypc and +0.75 ypca. And A&M's advantage is hardly fraudulent considering it played in the SEC and had a similar strength of schedule (14th) to Oklahoma (4th). And, the Sooners don't own any significant edge in Read more

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies SEC Oklahoma Sooners Big XII

NBA Betting Notes: Boston's lack of team defense leads to 2-9 ATS skid

01.04.2013     08:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Indiana at Boston -2.5 O/U 180.5

Boston's defense has been mediocre for much of the year but of late, it's been atrocious. Seven of their last 11 opponents have topped 100 points and to no surprise the Celtics covered only two of those contests.

“We’re not playing it (defense),” the point guard said following the Celtics loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. “I don’t know (why). We’ve just got to try to take it one step at a time. It starts with me so I’ve just got to hold myself more accountable….

“Just our trust, our trust isn’t there,” he said. “When we do make a mistake, we don’t make up for one another. In the past, a guy may be off the dribble or a guy might have an open shot, a guy might run from no matter where and cover up

Read more

Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Indiana Pacers

College Basketbal Handicapper Free Play: Marist Red Foxes at Niagara Purple Eagles

01.03.2013     12:34 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Marist at Niagara -10.5
Recommendation: Niagara

The home team has dominated this series between MAAC conference rivals. Niagara has won the last three home games against Marist by 17 points or more dating back to 2010. The Purple Eagles come in to this game well rested having not played since their road loss at Notre Dame on December 21st. It will mark only the sixth home game this season for Niagara who are 4-1 SU on this floor which includes a win over New Mexico State. Niagara notched a very impressive early season MAAC conference road win against defending MAAC champion Loyola Maryland proving this team is capable when all their pieces are working collectively as a team. The Purple Eagles played one of their toughest non-conference slates they’ve had had in years taking on quality teams like Notre Dame, New Mexico State, and Oregon State and that should have them prepared for MAAC play starting tonight. Niagara junior guard Marvin Jordan accentuates the focus of his team on this conference home game: “It’s go time. It’s time to refocus and get down to business.”

Niagara will have their full lineup intact Read more

Tags: College Basketball Marist Red Foxes Niagara Purple Eagles Ian Cameron

College Basketball Gambling Free Pick: UW-Green Bay Phoenix at Wright State Raiders

01.03.2013     10:52 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Wisconsin-Green Bay at Wright State -2
Recommendation: Wright State

Not at all reluctant to lay the short price here with the double revenge minded home team. Wright State has been tenacious on the defensive end this season. Through 13 games they are allowing just 39.8% from the field and according to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, own the Horizon League’s best adjusted defense rating at 93.3 which ranks 67th in the country. The return of 6-10 junior A.J. Pacher to the WSU lineup (missed last three games) figures to be key here as his size will be counted on to help neutralize the Wisconsin-Green Bay twin interior forces of 7-1 center Alec Brown and 6-9 265 pound senior Brennan Cougill. The projected deliberate pace here doesn’t figure to bother either side since these teams prefer slower tempo. Wright State head coach Billy Donlon made a lineup switch last game inserting junior Jerran Young into the starting unit and that could be a key difference maker tonight. Young has led the team in scoring and rebounding the last three games. Each team has played at Idaho this season with the Raiders winning 80-70 and WGB coming up short 72-62. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Wright State Raiders UW-Green Bay Phoenix Rob Veno

College Football Handicapping: Ole Miss offense struggles in practice

01.03.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi -3 O/U 52

A couple of notes on Ole Miss as it prepares for Saturday's Compass Bowl against Pittsburgh. It sounds as if the cold weather hindered the offense in practice, in particular the quarterbacks. The mid-week forecast calls for game time temps in the high 40s to low 50s. It was also pointed out that Bo Wallacce’s shoulder and arm strength still was not 100 percent despite some extended rest.

“Bo (Wallace) was not himself today, Barry (Brunetti) and all the quarterbacks,” coach Hugh Freeze said. “The ball is a little harder, slicker and for receivers and specialists it certainly was a different game.”

“I think it’s about the same,” Freeze said. “I think you’ll see the same guy hopefully you saw against State.

Read more

Tags: College Football Ole Miss Rebels SEC Pittsburgh Panthers Big East


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