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November

21

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NBA Betting News and Notes 2-6-2012

02.06.2012     01:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Super Bowl is in the history books but the NBA All-Star Game is already on the horizon and there are all kinds of interesting goings on around the league right now.  This week, I’ll focus on a handful of teams with notes and quotes that can point us in the right direction for our NBA wagers.

Dallas Mavericks – When you look at the Dallas statistical profile this year, one thing stands out like a sore thumb.  Dirk Nowitzki  – the Mavs longtime superstar and the guy who guided them to their first ever NBA title last summer – has basically been a non-factor from Day 1.  Last year, Dirk led the team in scoring at 23 points per game.  He was the Mavs #2 rebounder, behind Tyson Chandler.  He shot better than 51% from the floor for the entire season, and better than 39% from three point range.  But, even after taking four games off to ‘improve his conditioning’, Dirk’s 2012 numbers can only be considered a major disappointment.

The numbers don’t lie.  Dirk is scoring only 17.2 points per game this year.  His shooting percentage is down to 45.5% and Read more


Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Houston Rockets Miami Heat New Orleans Hornets Teddy Covers




Handicapper Fairway Jay: Super Sunday part of Fantastic February

02.06.2012     10:48 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

We nailed our top-play 20*Big Drive winner on the New York Giants and their Super Bowl XLVI win over the New England Patriots, 21-17. While I also projected a higher-scoring game, field position did not allow for more points despite over 750 yards offense and both teams moving the ball pretty well at 5.6 yards per play. The Giants ability to control the ball, clock (37 minutes) and chains kept New England’s potent pass attack on the sidelines and Eli Manning led another fourth quarter touchdown drive to clinch the victory.

New York’s victory completed a strong pointspread prognosis finish in the NFL playoffs as we went a perfect 6-0 on our top-rated Big Drive selections and capped of another winning season overall. If was our fourth straight profitable postseason.

On to the hardwood and fantastic finishes ahead in college basketball as teams shoot for regular season and conference tournament titles along with their push to and through the NCAA Tournament and other college basketball postseason tournaments.   This is the most exciting time of the year in college basketball, along with strong handicapping situations involving second meets, Read more


Tags: NFL College Basketball __




Big Ten Betting Free Play: Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans

02.05.2012     08:39 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Michigan at Michigan State -7 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Michigan State


Michigan (7-3) has beaten Michigan State (6-3) three straight times and the games are becoming more meaningful as the Wolverines return to the top part of the Big Ten standings.  Michigan snapped an 11-game losing skid in East Lansing a year ago, and appear to have the defense, speed and talent to battle with better teams. Clearly they have a quality coach with John Beilein, but the Spartans and Tom Izzo will play this as their most meaningful game of the season thus far. Here are some things to watch in today’s Big Ten battle on national TV.

Michigan State (17-5) actually sports the better defense overall, allowing just 59 ppg and 38% FG shooting in league play. Both teams are hitting 46-47% of their shots in league play, but the Read more


Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans __




College Basketball ATS Preview: Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini

02.05.2012     07:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northwestern at Illinois -5.5 O/U 130

Just going by results, it is hard to imagine supporting Illinois (16-6, 5-4) is this type of price range considering the margin of its first nine Big Ten games were 9 (OT), 15, 1, 5, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5 (OT) and 1. And right before league play started, the Illini lost to Missouri by four and beat Cornell by that same margin. Now on the flip side, supporting a Northwestern squad is this type of price range on the road can get tricky as well. Away from Evanston, the Wildcats have lost conference games by margins of 33, 2 (OT), 20 and 23. Northwestern is also a very banged up basketball team. Illinois won the first meeting, 57-56, in Evanston.


As Carmody said after the Nebraska game, "So little separates wins from losses the last few Read more



Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Illinois Fighting Illini




Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview: High scoring affair on the horizon

02.03.2012     07:32 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’m not in agreement with the recent downward move on the Super Bowl total; now at 54 and even 53 at Pinnacle. While many are pointing out that seven of the last eight Super Bowls lined at 46.5 points or higher have gone under the total, I note that the last three Super Bowls all had at least 47 points scored including last year’s 31-25 Green Bay win over Pittsburgh (a side winner for us). The Saints beat the Colts in 2009 as a touchdown underdog, 31-17 (a side winner for us), but the game finished under the posted total of 56.5 points. 

Like that contest, Super Bowl XLVI has two top quarterbacks that are supremely skilled, polished, poised and precise in their passing and play. Going against suspect secondaries on both sides in perfect conditions should result in plenty of big plays in the passing game. The linesmaker is also projecting big passing days by both Eli Manning and Tom Brady, with over/under passing yards posted at 312 and 323 respectively. Both teams will spread the field with their talented receivers and take advantage of two poor pass defenses. Each quarterback is also very comfortable and efficient operating the no-huddle offense.  Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI __




NBA Handicapping: New York Knicks push pace and find offensive stride

02.03.2012     07:05 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We cashed our Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month to close out January and followed it up with another 20* O/U Game of the Month winner last night when the Bulls beat the Knicks 105-102. That’s back-to-back top-play 20* Big Drive winners on Knicks games over the total after they pounded the Pistons in their previous game 113-86. Both games went over the posted total by at least 15 points. With Carmelo Anthony out of the lineup, the Knicks pushed the pace in a pair of losses before the last two games, and ‘Melo scored 25 and 26 points in his return the past two games as New York opened up their offense, hit more shots and pushed the pace. The Pistons were the perfect opponent to appease the restless New York fans, and despite yesterday’s loss to the Bulls, New York is a team worth riding over the total with their sub-par defense and more open offense.

Here is my game write-up of the Knicks-Pistons game provided to clients earlier this week.  Recent play, insightful information and positive pointspread prognosis led us to another over the total Big Drive winner.


We’re projecting plenty of running, shooting and scoring Read more



Tags: NBA New York Knicks __




NBA Handicapper Game Preview: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers

02.02.2012     09:46 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver +1 at LA Clippers O/U 206
Recommendation: Denver


My clients and I have made good money supporting Denver through the first six weeks of the NBA season, and the Nuggets remain an undervalued commodity as they travel to LA for a ‘quick turnaround’ revenge meeting tonight. We’re catching George Karl’s squad in a real moneymaking situation – off a poorly played loss, as they blew a double digit fourth quarter lead against Memphis on Tuesday, followed by another blown lead in overtime. That loss came on the heels of another blown fourth quarter lead at home against the Clips, a game where Chauncey Billups lived up to his ‘Mr. Big Shot’ moniker, on fire from three point range down the stretch.

The Nuggets haven’t lost three in a row all year, and I don’t expect that to change following tonight’s game. Coach George Karl: “I actually think our mental attitude on the road court has been better-focused than at Read more


Tags: NBA Denver Nuggets Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers




Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: First kickoff to result in a touchback

02.02.2012     07:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
First kickoff to result in a touchback?
Recommendation: Yes -200


This bet is still worth making at -200 or better, and it’s an interesting handicap.  The Patriots have a strong tendency to defer when they win the opening coin toss, while the Giants’ prevailing tendency is to get the ball first when they win the toss.  As a result, chances are pretty good that it’s going to be Stephen Gostkowski with the opening kickoff, not Lawrence Tynes.  Gostkowski is a touchback type kicker with a big leg and the adrenaline will most assuredly be flowing for that opening kick.  The Giants don’t attempt many kickoff returns from deep in their own end zone – without a strong return game, they are quite comfortable taking the ball at the 20-yard line.  And the pristine conditions inside Lucas Oil Stadium have produced touchbacks on 76% of the kickoffs for the full season.  Put it all together and we’re getting a 3:1 favorite while laying 2:1 or less to do it.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI Teddy Covers




College Basketball Handicapping: Undefeated home teams

02.02.2012     07:08 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Every season I discuss and post information on the importance of home courts in college basketball and mention how teams perform with a home/road dichotomy. Understanding home court advantage and the situations surrounding the current contests is important in helping you isolate winners. While the oddsmaker factors home court into the pointspread, there are teams who still perform much better on their home floor. Understanding player strengths and match-ups, team chemistry, current form and statistical performance both home and away is part of breaking down a game. Supporting fans and a comfortable surrounding should only help the home team perform better.  Along with good coaching and preparation, players can become more consistent in their play at home along with their performance when having to take to the road in hostile environments. Once teams get to postseason play, you must factor in and handicap a team’s home/road performance to deliver more pointspread winners. 

Some of the best situational plays develop during February. Many conference teams are now playing "second meets" or opponents for the second time in conference play. These Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




Handicapper Teddy Covers' Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview

01.30.2012     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.

The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.

-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week Read more


Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI New England Patriots New York Giants Teddy Covers



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