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Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 11

11.23.2011     08:26 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay

Week 11 NFL favorites went 10-4 straight up and 6-6-2 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 75-78-7 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Five division games in Week 11 and division underdogs went 2-3 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. Home underdogs went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 17-28 SU and 23-21-1 ATS. Totals went 6-8 over/under with an average game score of 43.85 ppg. Totals are now 77-81-2 O/U YTD. There have Read more

Tags: NFL __

NCAAF Pointspread Preview: Louisville Cardinals vs. South Florida Bulls

11.22.2011     01:22 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports


Louisville at South Florida (Friday, 8 am PT - ESPN2)
CRIS Opener: South Florida -3 O/U 43.5
CRIS Current: South Florida -3 (-115) O.U 43.5
Rob Veno Power Rating: South Florida -6

We have two teams here that have been heading in opposite directions for the better part of two months now. USF has been a train wreck since late September, losers of five of its last six games overall. They’ve covered just one spread in their last seven contests and were favored in each game. Louisville meanwhile has morphed into a solid bunch under head coach Charlie Strong with wins in four of its last five games and ATS victories in six of seven.

The Bulls can attribute this lack of production to a number of issues including, but not limited to, injuries to various key offensive personnel. The receiving corps in particular has been hit hard with the loss of leading Read more

Tags: College Football South Florida Bulls Louisville Cardinals Big East Otto Sports

College Basketball Handicapping: Gearing up for Thanksgiving tournament action

11.21.2011     09:05 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
We’re off to a sizzling 8-2 start in college basketball following Valparaiso’s 84-68 demolishing of Duquesne Sunday. The Crusaders were a 3-point home underdog as the host of the 2k Classic and money came in strong on Valpo prior to tip off. Strong support was also in favor of our top play Saturday as Long Beach State (+3) had an adjusted power rating line of at least three points following their big upset of Pittsburgh November 16th (a Big Drive winner for us). But we could have use an extra few points Saturday as we suffered a very tough loss when Long Beach State lost to San Diego State 71-67 in overtime. If you missed the final seconds of regulation and overtime, Long Beach was trailing by two points with three seconds remaining in regulation. The 49ers had the ball after a timeout planning their final possession and shot. Long Beach State planned a 3-point shot off a screen for premier point guard Casper Ware. But a San Diego State player committed an ill-advised foul on the screen as the ball was being put into play. Ware calmly made both free throws under pressure to send the game into overtime. Long Beach was already penalized by the officials when their top Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 11 NFC Betting News and Notes

11.21.2011     08:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re officially into the homestretch of the NFL season. Every team has now had their bye week, with the last four (Texans, Colts, Saints, Steelers) coming this past Sunday. The three Thanksgiving Day games and the full Sunday slate that follows are the start of that final push towards the postseason.

Just to illustrate how much can change, last year at this time, the Falcons and Patriots were the only teams in the NFL with eight wins and ranked at or near the top of nearly every set of power rankings. As you probably recall, both Atlanta and New England lost their home opener in the playoffs; complete non-factors in January and (of course) February. Meanwhile, the Lions were in the midst of a 4-38 SU run dating back to 2008, arguably the single worst team in the NFL; prior to their late season surge that set the stage for their 2011 revival.

We’ll see a handful of teams morph again this year, turning a positive late season run into a strong pointspread record or a negative late season run into dismal pointspread results. My goal this week is to break down the 16 teams in the NFC, hoping to identify some of these potential ‘morphers’ Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Another view of rushing success and pointspread profit

11.21.2011     07:40 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Every week I write a variety of articles and post blogs discussing and reviewing NFL information to better assist you in pursuit of profits. Some of my processes in becoming a winning pointspread prognosis professional are well documented.  Success starts with fundamentals, preparation and production at the point of attack. I thought I would share some additional stats to hammer home the importance of controlling the line of scrimmage and having success running the ball and/or stopping the run.

As a refresher, teams that have a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent in a NFL game cover the pointspread approximately 75% of the time (I have a 10-year data base to support). And it’s even stronger when teams run the ball at least 30 times in a game.

So here is some additional evidence in support of a strong running game. In Week 11 NFL action (Monday pending), teams that rushed the ball 30 times or more went 7-0-1 ATS (yes, our top-play on Atlanta was the push). Teams that rushed the ball 20 times or less went 1-5-1 ATS (yes, Tennessee with 14 running plays was the push). Over the past four weeks, this simple profile has seen teams that run the Read more

Tags: NFL __

College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio Bobcats

11.20.2011     07:47 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arkansas State +11 at Ohio O/U 135
Recommendation: Arkansas State

Arkansas State got a butt chewing from head coaching John Brady following a blowout home loss to Missouri State. The Red Wolves followed it up with a solid effort against bottom feeder UT-Martin. ASU is one of the most vanilla teams around and they have a tendency to keep a majority of their games close. Twenty of their 32 games last year were decided by 10 points or less. And taking it a step further, of their 15 losses, 12 came by nine points or less – and that included contests against Memphis, Ole Miss and Georgia. Ohio will have more speed and talent in this contest but the Bobcats don't play much defense and have a tendency to lose interest with big leads. They needed overtime to beat Lamar – Lamar beat Arkansas State by three. Ohio then held a 19-point halftime lead against UT-Martin but ended up winning by only nine. Seems like the type of game where the ugly underdog can Read more

Tags: College Basketball Ohio Bobcats Arkansas State Red Wolves Andrew Lange

NFL Handicapper Free Play: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

11.20.2011     04:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Carolina at Detroit -7 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over

The Lions played their worst game of the season last Sunday, a six turnover debacle at Chicago. Returning home to the friendly confines of Ford Field against a weak defensive foe is the proper elixir for their current woes. This offense averages four touchdowns per game; loaded with quick strike, big play ability. The Panthers defense has allowed 31 points per game on the highway, and they’ve been very consistent. Every team Carolina has faced on the road this year has scored at least 28 points!

But the Panthers offense matches up well against a mediocre Lions stop unit. Carolina runs the ball extremely well. Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart all rush for 4.7 yards per carry or better, and Newton has averaged more than 330 passing yards per game on the road. That’s bad news for a Lions defense that has real vulnerability to balanced attacks, particularly against mobile QBs. Every previous Panthers Read more

Tags: NFL Detroit Lions Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers

College Basketball Handicapping Notes for 11/18/2011

11.18.2011     12:49 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
A quick breakdown of tonight's college basketball card.

Ball State has beaten Indiana State two straight times. Billy Taylor's squad showed well at Arizona and has steadily improved on offense the last two years. I grade out the Sycamores as the better team though and lean that way at the current number of -6.

Youngstown State is a team I have check marked though not in this price range. We saw the line dip down to -3.5 but was immediately bet back the Penguins' way. Riverside has some experience and beat YSU by 2 last season.

Expect a fast pace in tonight's Arkansas-Houston game. With the total nearing 150 though, it becomes not only an issue of pace but also shooting. Neither team is particularly efficient which kept me off of the over at this price.

Arizona State is not a good team and points are once again going to be tough to come by. They are also struggling with being asked to play at a faster pace. Asking kids to take quicker shots after playing stall-ball is a tough transition – especially when no one can shoot. New Mexico's preseason expectations and past domination over New Mexico State may have gone to their heads as the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

NCAAF Gambling Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines

11.18.2011     12:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers


Nebraska at Michigan -3.5 O/U 51
Recommendation: Michigan

Nebraska is an injury riddled mess in the trenches right now.  The Cornhuskers offensive guards at Penn State last week?  Two walk-ons and zero backups.  Tight end Ben Cotton is hurt as well. The situation doesn’t look much better this week – this Huskers offensive front is limping towards the finish line of the regular season.  On defense, Nebraska has already lost nose tackles Jared Crick and Thad Randle with season ending injuries, and their backup, Chase Rome, is less than 100% with a lingering hamstring injury.

All of this is very bad news for the Huskers against a Michigan defense that has improved by leaps and bounds under first year coordinator Greg Mattison.  The numbers don’t lie.  In the final year of the Rich Rod era in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines finished 110th in the nation in scoring defense, #108 Read more

Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Analyzing this week's situational plays

11.18.2011     07:07 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
There are a number of college football games this week with situations involving inflated lines, look-ahead games and momentum versus letdown. It’s important at this time of the college football season to recognize which teams have ‘tossed the towel’ with either a losing season ensured or underachieving overall. Likewise, there are stronger teams that may not have top energy and effort with more meaningful games ahead. It’s important to not get caught analyzing only statistical profiles when late season games dictate more motivational and situational factors. Here are some games and situations for you to consider this weekend.

Oklahoma State -27 at Iowa State (Friday) – Another mismatch it appears for undefeated Oklahoma State and its explosive offense. After four straight Big Xll beatings by at least 15 points, Iowa State bounced back with a pair of conference wins and now play its final home game following a bye week. In two weeks, Read more

Tags: College Football __


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