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Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 13 NFC Betting News and Notes

12.05.2011     06:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC News and Notes from Week 13.

Matt Ryan is throwing picks this year, something that didn't happen very often in the Falcons 13-3 season last year. Ryan opened up this game with a three-and-out, then interceptions on his next two drives. He only threw nine INT's all season in 2010 but he’s already thrown a dozen this year, with a full quarter of the season remaining.

This passing game simply isn't potent right now. Roddy White has been battling injuries all year, lacking the explosive burst that was such a big part of his game in previous seasons. Julio Jones, too, has been unable to stay healthy. Harry Douglas has only three touchdown catches in three years with the team, never living up to expectations. Tony Gonzalez doesn't seem to have much left in the tank at this late stage of his career. We saw drops, Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Week 13 Betting Angles and Trends

12.04.2011     08:15 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Six teams play this week with extra rest and preparation coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Situations, trends and angles show that road favorites off those Thanksgiving Day games often play in higher scoring games. This situation supports an over the total trend that hits just over 70% with a sample size of nearly 50 games; applies to Baltimore (-6.5/38) at Cleveland, Dallas (-4/45.5) at Arizona and Green Bay (-6.5/52) at NY Giants. Be sure to check the weather in Cleveland (50 degrees, mild winds, 20% precipitation) and East Rutherford, NJ where the Packers try to remain undefeated.

The winless Colts (0-11) were pulled from the Sunday Night feature game. That saves them more embarrassment for now. Indianapolis cost us a 4-0 Sunday last week when they failed to punch in a touchdown from the 2-yard line late. With just two pointspread covers this season, the Colts are burying their betting backers. Knowing the public can’t stand betting on bad teams, less harm has probably been felt. Let’s see if the public has the balls to support them this week. The Colts have fit numerous positive technical situations the past four weeks, and now find themselves in another Read more

Tags: NFL __

NCAA Basketball Betting: Iowa makes lineup changes to shore up defense

12.03.2011     06:38 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Brown at Iowa -16.5 O/U 140

Not pleased with his team's performance, especially on the defensive end of the floor, Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery plans to make some lineup changes for today's game against Brown. The Hawkeyes have allowed 82, 77, 72 and 71 their last four games (1-3).

"It's going to take tremendous effort defensively on a consistent basis," said McCaffery. "That's been one of our biggest problems, we play defense at times very well, but we have not been consistently a good defense team because we haven't sustained it.

"To beat Brown, you have to sustain defensive effort, concentration and execution. If we do, our offense will be that much better because when you're getting stops it's a lot better offensively than when you're giving up buckets, trying to run on Read more

Tags: College Basketball Iowa Hawkeyes Rob Veno

Big Ten Championship Gambling Preview: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin

12.03.2011     06:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin -9.5 O/U 54.5
Recommendation: Over

The betting markets do weird things, like driving this total down from an opener of 55. The downward move is inexplicable to this bettor. Wisconsin averaged more than 44 points per game this year. Michigan State averaged more than 30. The first meeting between these two schools was a wild 37-31 shootout, a game that featured 41 first downs and well over 800 yards of total offense. Both teams had success in both facets of their offensive gameplan. Montee Ball ran for 6.4 yards per carry; LeVeon Bell gained 5.4 yards per carry. Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins combined for five touchdown passes. Six different receivers caught at least one pass longer than 20 yards. Wisconsin punted only twice on their 13 possessions.

The rematch is being played indoors on a fast track, without any sort of weather issues to worry about. The Badgers power offense works even better in a dome, and Read more

Tags: College Footoball Wisconsin Badgers Michigan State Spartans Big Ten Teddy Covers

NCAA Basketball Odds: Louisville keeps things slow to keep everyone healthy

12.02.2011     06:06 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Vanderbilt at Louisville -8 O/U 134

Because of injuries, Louisville has fully embraced a "slower is better" mentality. The Cardinals have been forced to take it easy in practice in order to keep everyone healthy and fresh. That however has kept the team from reaching peak physical conditioning, thus Louisville hasn't done much in terms of pressing and getting out on the break on offense. Last time out, Long Beach State became the first team to top 54 points (66) against the Cardinals.

“We’ve gotten a little out of shape to play that racehorse style,” Pitino said. “All we’ve been trying to do in practice is just execute and avoid injuries.”

“At one time we had 15-16 people out there. We haven’t seen that since summer, Read more

Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Vanderbilt Commodores

College Football Betting Notes: Illinois undecided on playing in postseason

12.01.2011     12:47 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Couple articles out of Champaign on whether or not Illinois feels up for the postseason following the dismissal of head coach Ron Zook. If they do decide to play, the Illini could find themselves in a bowl game as early as December 17 which doesn't leave a lot of time to prepare. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning has been named the interim head coach and following a Tuesday meeting, the players seemed split on whether or not to give it a go. And official announcement will be made at a press conference Sunday evening.

“We’ll have a player’s meeting here in the next few days and discuss it amongst our teammates and find out what everybody’s feeling,” Mercilus said. “After what happened in the last 24 hours, there’s a lot of discouragement. Read more

Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten

NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 12

11.30.2011     07:48 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
The top Week 12 offensive performances in victory included the Saints (577 yards, 8.4 yards per play), Patriots (477, 6.4), Redskins (416, 6.4) and Bengals (389, 6.0). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the 49ers (170, 3.1), Vikings (226, 4.3), Seahawks (250, 4.0), Chiefs (252, 4.0), Jaguars (255, 3.6), Rams (272, 4.9) and Browns (274, 4.2).  The Redskins finally snapped a seven-game losing streak and rushed for 110 yards after running for 69, 61, 52, 26, 92 and 42 yards the previous six games. 

Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent cover the pointspread 77% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 35-5 SU and 32-7-1 ATS (82%). Being able to handicap and project which teams will have a meaningful rushing advantage (say, 30 or more yards) will lead you to more pointspread winners, as teams with that type of advantage cover the pointspread approximately 75% of the time historically, and 76% of the time thus far this season (I have a data base for over 10 years to prove it).
The Bears rushed for 172 yards to just 73 for the Read more

Tags: NFL __

College Football Handicapping: Michigan State comfortable with underdog role

11.29.2011     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin -9.5 O/U 54.5

Michigan State isn't fazed by its underdog status for Saturday's Big Ten Championship against Wisconsin. The Spartans have beaten the Badgers each of the last two years – both as underdogs. MSU has been installed as an underdog four times this season and posted two outright wins (Wisconsin and Ohio State). The two losses came at Notre Dame and Nebraska.


“No, it doesn’t surprise me,” Michigan State senior safety Trenton Robinson said of the point spread. “Every game we go into, it’s been the same thing for as long as I can remember. Every game that we go into, we are the underdogs. Everybody says that Michigan State’s going to lose by this and that amount.

“We just go out Read more

Tags: College Football Michigan State Spartans Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten

Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 12

11.29.2011     08:09 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay

Week 12 NFL favorites went 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 84-85-7 ATS.  Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Six division games in Week 12 and division underdogs went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS. Home underdogs went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 17-33 SU and 24-25-1 ATS. Scoring for the week averaged 41.5 ppg and totals went 7-9 O/U and are 84-90-2 O/U YTD. There have been 7,705 Read more

Tags: NFL __

College Basketball Handicapping: Ken Pomeroy favors Big Ten over ACC

11.29.2011     06:17 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Ken Pomeroy does he best to explain the potential outcomes of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. According to Pomeroy's numbers, the Big Ten is "favored" in nine of the 12 matchups with a 7-5 being the most likely result. He notes however that for whatever reason, Wisconsin is favored at North Carolina and Virginia Tech's odds are increased with Minnesota big man Trevor Mbakwe (14.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) out for the year with a torn ACL. In terms of the pointspreads for today's matchups, the Big Ten is favored in four of the six with Clemson at Iowa a pick 'em and Michigan a 2-point road underdog vs. Virginia. We've seen a small move towards the Big Ten as The Greek posted ACC -220/Big Ten +180 yesterday but now showing ACC -200/ Big Ten +170. 


Tags: College Basketball Big Ten ACC


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