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October

21

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College Basketball Betting: Analyzing close against the spread results

01.17.2012     07:14 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is Part I of a series of articles to be posted on college basketball results and the impact against the spread (ATS). I’m often asked about close results and usually emailed, tweeted or text a message about a close win or loss (usually loss). It’s important to understand some of the random variances that can take place in betting sports, and in this case college basketball. Over the course of a college basketball season the average margin of a final score will fall with 8-9 points from the betting line.

Over the past few weeks we have suffered our share of close ATS losses, including 0-5 the past three days for results that landed within five points of the betting line. Along with some service selections, my personal wagering has resulted in a 0-5 recent run for games that landed within one point of the betting line.  Yet despite some recent less than desired results, we’ve been on quite a run on our top-rated Big Drive plays. Since late November the record stands 25-7.

Through the winning run and full season, I spend many hours logging and tracking scores, stats and lines. I’ve been tracking scores and documenting the results Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




NCAA Basketball Gambling: Michigan looks for three straight over rival Michigan State

01.17.2012     06:25 AM     Printer Friendly
Michigan State -1 at Michigan O/U 131.5

Notes on tonight's Michigan State-Michigan matchup in Ann Arbor. Both teams come in off of losses –MSU fell at Northwestern 81-74 and UM was blown out at Iowa, 75-59. The Wolverines has some pretty strong ATS trends in their favor: 15-4 ATS run vs. Big Ten, 27-8 ATS run as an underdog, 15-6 ATS run at home. Michigan won both meetings last season, 70-63 (-1) and 61-57 (+11).




Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans




College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles

01.17.2012     06:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Maryland at Florida State
Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half


Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad Read more


Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads

01.16.2012     02:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Typically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason.

But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 – after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats – but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange




NBA Betting News and Notes 1-16-2012

01.16.2012     10:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We're only three weeks into the young NBA season, yet we're already seeing teams morph away from how they looked earlier in the campaign. Let's take a look around the league, concentrating on key notes and quotes, the type of information that has the potential to make us some money in the weeks to come.

Detroit – Pistons starting forward Tayshaun Prince has had a fascinating career arc. He’s been on a championship team in 2004 and returned to the Finals again in 2005. Prince has helped his team reach the Eastern Conference Finals six times. He’s also played for six different head coaches in Detroit, including their current head honcho, Lawrence Frank. But with a 3-10 record to open the season including four consecutive non-competitive home losses, Prince has been vocal about his frustrations, just weeks after inking an extension to stay with Detroit for the next four years.

Prince: “We got to figure out a way to get in the paint a lot more. Right now, we’re confused on both ends and we’re settling for jump shots. I know myself in general, I’ve taken shots that really haven’t come in the Read more


Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Golden State Warriors New York Knicks Philadelphia 76ers Teddy Covers




NCAA Basketball Betting Free Pick: Penn Quakers at Columbia Lions

01.13.2012     01:30 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pennsylvania at Columbia -1.5 O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Under


We continued our remarkable run in college basketball with a pair of Big Drive winners last night on Western Illinois and Arkansas-Little Rock. Since the end of November, the run is 25-4 on our top-rated Big Drive college basketball plays. Time to join the profit-producing party!

We passed on Friday’s card from a service perspective, but here is a Fairway Free Forecast that is part of my personal betting interests. Ivy League play tips off tonight with Columbia (11-5) winning 11 of its last 12 games. As I often discuss, the improvement starts with defense, and the Lions rank 81st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rankings after finishing 226th last season. Their effective field goal defense is also significantly improved this season (41st, 44%). Columbia is a slow-down team with an adjusted tempo ranking of 284 out of 345 which has assisted in a 2-5 O/U mark this season. One of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Pennsylvania Quakers Columbia Lions __




NCAA Basketball Betting: Princeton travels to Cornell for Ivy League opener

01.13.2012     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Princeton -1 at Cornell O/U 124.5

New and notes on tonight's Ivy League opener between Princeton and Cornell. Tonight will mark the eighth straight road game against a DI opponent for the Tigers. Cornell meanwhile has been hammered by injuries with 74 player games already lost.


“I feel like we’re in a slightly better position now than we were a month ago,” Princeton coach Mitch Henderson said the other day. “We had a rough start (1-5).

“What we’re seeing now is more balance; certainly on the offensive end. We’ve gotten good production out of Ian Hummer and Doug Davis, but the rest of the team is Read more



Tags: College Basketball Princeton Tigers Cornell Big Red




NBA Handicapping: Huh? No offense, all defense for the New York Knicks

01.12.2012     12:18 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Holy cow, the New York Knicks are playing defense! That or offenses league-wide are really, really bad. Perhaps a bit of both as the Knicks held Philadelphia to 39.5% shooting in last night's 85-79 win. In the victory – this has to be one of the craziest stats of the season – New York didn't hit a field goal the final 9:02 of the game. They also had nine turnovers during that span. Yet, they not only won the game but covered. Despite the struggles, the team isn't worried about its offense – which has been really bad of late – but rather thriving on producing stops on a consistent basis.


"We're not worried about our offense," Anthony said. "That will come. Right now, we're focused on our defense. That's where we need to be."

"… I think most importantly that once we got Tyson [Chandler] everybody was saying he was the key to the defensive changes. But it was going to start with myself and Amare to help him out. We can't rely on Tyson to do everything out there. As long as I'm out Read more



Tags: NBA New York Knicks




College Basketball Betting News and Notes 1-12-2012

01.12.2012     11:29 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NC-Wilmington at Georgia State -12.5 O/U 132.5
It will be interesting to see how first-year head coach Ron Hunter’s Panthers handle this home game after going through a three-game CAA gauntlet. Tough struggles with fellow league kingpins Drexel, VCU and George Mason resulted in  2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS records but can GSU bring the same energy and focus tonight at home against fast paced NC-Wilmington? The Seahawks will be without starting forward Donte Morales who is averaging 22 minutes per game. Star forward Keith Rendelman (56.6 FG%, 15.2 ppg) picked up his second CAA Player of the Week award this past week.

Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 at UL-Monroe O/U 118.5
Without their leading scorer, rebounder and three-point shooter, 6-10 Will Neighbour (Sun Belt POW Dec 25-31), the Trojans offense mustered just 91 points during his two-game absence. Granted those contests were versus SEC power Kentucky and defensive minded conference foe Florida Atlantic, but UALR shot 30% and 31% from the field. Neighbour is listed as Read more


Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno




NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Fouls and scoring on the downswing

01.12.2012     06:45 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I was researching teams and pace of play recently when I came across this article on the number of fouls being called in college basketball games this season and the impact on scoring.

According to statistics provided by the NCAA, there have been 18.35 fouls called per game per team this season. That is the lowest since 1963, when the average was 18.20. Not surprisingly, this has had an effect on scoring. Overall team scoring average is 68.88 ppg, and that number may well drop as conference play continues.  It appears the refs are clamping down on physical play, making it a bit it's easier for players to dribble, pass and shoot.
Yet according to my research of O/U results on over 1,500 college basketball games this season, the OVER is winning just 49.1% of the time, which is right at the average the past four seasons (note: results may vary due to totals market moves). As teams play more conference games against familiar opponents and coaching staffs, the games tend to have less scoring overall with stronger defensive intensity. You still Read more


Tags: College Basketball __



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