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Cloudy days favor hitters, sunny days favor pitchers
05.05.2011 02:15 PM
Printer Friendly
Interesting analysis on baseball results for
cloudy days vs. sunny days
. The study took 15 years of data and determined that batting averages were higher on days with cloud cover. One of the theories behind it was that cloud cover provides less opportunity for glare and thus better vision for hitters.
Earned runs allowed by home pitchers were lowest on clear days at 3.93, climbing to 4.26 on cloudy days. For visiting pitchers the ERA was 4.50 in the clear and 4.68 under the clouds.
"I was also surprised with the increase in home-team winning percentage from cloudy day games to clear day games. While I had anticipated that the home team would be better equipped to compensate for any potential disadvantages caused by increased sunlight, I did not foresee the increase in winning percentage that resulted," he said.
On clear days, home teams won 56 percent of their games and visitors
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MLB Handicapper Game Preview: Baltimore at Kansas City
05.04.2011 08:49 AM
Alatex Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports
Baltimore (Arrieta) -110 at Kansas City (Davies) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
We should see plenty of runs again in Kansas City tonight with Jake Arrieta and Kyle Davies on the hill. The Royals lead the American League in runs scored with 151 and are top in baseball in double, triples and stolen bases. Over the past seven days, the Orioles and Royals are tied for second in the AL in runs scored with 36, and rank first and second with 10 and 9 homers respectively. Seven of the last eight Kansas City games have gone over the total and on the season they are 10-7 O/U at home. As for the starting pitching, Arrieta is a 6-inning guy at this point who pitches to contact. Davies has been a disaster and yet to pitch past the sixth inning while allowing three runs or more in four of his last five starts. Both bullpens were worked fairly heavy last night during KC’s 6-5 10-inning win. Decent weather (70 degrees), two offenses in good form and two mediocre starters put us in play on the over.
Tags:
MLB
Kansas City Royals
Kyle Davies
Baltimore Orioles
Jake Arrieta
Brent Crow
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MLB Handicapper Game Preview: Florida at St. Louis
05.04.2011 08:09 AM
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Florida (Vazquez) at St. Louis (Carpenter) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis -1.5 +115
We cashed our 20* Big Drive National League O/U Game of the Month on Tuesday when the Houston Astros romped over the Cincinnati Reds 10-4. On Monday we nailed our 20* National League R/L Game of the Month winner when the LA Dodgers clobbered the Chicago Cubs 5-2. Wednesday we’ll fire for more green and shoot for a Fairway free play winner and take the St. Louis Cardinals on the run/line at the plus-price
The surprising Florida Marlins (18-10) are off to their best start in franchise history and trail the first place Phillies by just one game in the NL East. St. Louis (17-13) leads the weaker NL Central and despite just 7-7 at home this season, note that the Cards were 52-29 at Busch Stadium last year. Ace Chris Carpenter (0-2, 3.89 ERA) is winless in six starts but that’s about to change tonight in St. Louis.
Carpenter has five quality starts this season, allowing just 3, 2, 0, 1 and 2
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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
Chris Carpenter
Florida Marlins
Javier Vazquez
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MLB Hanidicapping: A look at home teams perform after being no-hit
05.04.2011 06:53 AM
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Yesterday, we had a lot of fun breaking down
Francisco Liriano's troubles
this season. His control sucked, he didn't have a slider, teams weren't chasing his pitches out of the zone...the list goes on. Of course he turned around and threw a no-hitter last night against the White Sox – the least likely of all of Tuesday's starting pitchers when you consider not only his bloated ERA but the fact that Liriano had never tossed a complete game at any level in his professional career. As proud as we are with his performance, let's not forget he walked six, fanned only two and threw 53.6% strikes, making the accomplishment that much more amazing. Can you shed the label of "damaged goods" with a performance like that? As for his victim, the Chicago White Sox, they now have the worst record in the American League. We went back and pulled all of the data of how team's fared after being no-hit thinking embarrassment and pride would provide a spark and a big bounce back effort. Not the case as teams that were no-hit went 5-9 their next game. And when the opponent didn't change, similar results at 4-8. Chicago's John Danks is a -160 favorite over Nick Blackburn this afternoon.
Team performance after getting no-hit
Date
Pitcher
Victim
Victim's Next Game
Result
5/3/2011
F. Liriano
Chicago WS
Minnesota
???
10/6/2010
R. Halladay
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Loss, 4-7
7/26/2010
M. Garza
Detroit
Tampa Bay
Loss, 3-2
6/25/2010
E. Jackson
Tampa Bay
Arizona
Win, 5-3
5/29/2010
R. Halladay
Florida
Philadelphia
Win, 1-0
5/9/2010
D. Braden
Tampa Bay
LA Angels
Loss, 5-4
4/17/2010
U. Jimenez
Atlanta
Colorado
Win, 4-3
7/23/2009
M. Buehrle
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Win, 4-2
7/10/2009
J. Sanchez
San Diego
San Francisco
Loss, 2-1
9/14/2008
C. Zamrbano
Houston
Chicago
Loss, 5-1
5/19/2008
J. Lester
Kansas City
Boston
Loss, 2-1
9/1/2007
C. Buchholz
Baltimore
Boston
Loss, 3-2
6/12/2007
J. Verlander
Milwaukee
Detroit
Win, 3-2
4/18/2007
M. Buehrle
Texas
Chicago WS
Loss, 6-4
9/6/2006
A. Sanchez
Arizona
St. Louis
Loss, 6-2
Result
5-9 SU
Tags:
MLB
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
Nick Blackburn
Chicago White Sox
John Danks
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MLB Betting Alert: Greinke makes season debut against Braves
05.03.2011 02:40 PM
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Milwaukee's Zach Greinke will make his
National League debut tomorrow
in Atlanta against Tim Hudson. The Braves opened as a -135 favorite. In three rehab starts, Greinke went 10.2 innings, allowed 11 hits, struck out 13 and walked only two.
"It was pretty good," Greinke said of that outing. "All my stuff was pretty decent. I was locating pretty good. I was able to use every pitch. None of them were, like, amazing, but they were all usable.
"I'm healthy, for sure. I've been healthy for a while now. I just had to get my arm strength.
"It feels pretty good. Maybe I'm where I should be when the season starts. Maybe one start before that. It should be good enough to be able to pitch my game."
Tags:
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Greinke
Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson
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Baseball Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
05.03.2011 11:29 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Pittsburgh (Karstens) +145 at San Diego (Latos) O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Mat Latos was an ace last year and the San Diego Padres were huge moneymakers for their supporters for the first five months of the campaign. But the Padres went south in September and Latos was a big part of their demise. On August 25th 2010, the Padres had the best record in the NL, 76-49, with a 6.5 game lead over the Giants. They closed out the season 14-23 in their last 37 ballgames, and lost the division to the Giants by two games.
This year, the Padres own the single worst record (11-18) in the NL heading into Tuesday; carrying their late season collapse forward into 2011. A team built to win at low scoring Petco Field has been nothing short of awful at this venue: 4-12 in their first 16 home games, while averaging a dreadful 2.2 runs per game. And Latos – the young gem of Bud Black’s pitching staff – has gone south in a hurry.
The Padres went 16-7 in Latos’ first 23
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MLB
San Diego Padres
Mat Latos
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeff Karstens
Teddy Covers
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Angels, Weaver upset over Scott Barry strike zone
05.03.2011 11:22 AM
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UPDATE
Rumblings that the Angels, specifically Jered Weaver, were none too pleased with
umpire Scott Barry’s strike zone
during last night’s 9-5 Boston win. Weaver had only 14 called strikes and felt Barry missed a couple of key pitches. Barry joined John Hirschbeck’s crew prior to the season. Hirschbeck, Wally Bell and Laz Diaz have combined for a 4-11 O/U mark while Barry is 6-0 O/U with 11.67 runs per game. He’s gotten some help from a couple of high scoring late innings in at least two games but his overall body of work and low strike percentage (60.78%) suggest Barry’s “over” tendencies could continue.
"I thought there was one pitch in particular that could have gotten me out of that inning, but it didn't go my way
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MLB
Los Angeles Angels
Jered Weaver
Scott Barry
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MLB Prop Bet Selection: Baltimore at Kansas City
05.03.2011 09:36 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Vlad Guerrero vs. Billy Butler Total Bases
Recommendation: Guerrero
Kansas City’s Jeff Francis hasn’t been sharp at all this season with a 5.03 ERA and 46 hits allowed in 32 innings. He’s especially has difficulties against right-handed batters with a .353 BAA and .549 SLG. Baltimore’s Vlad Guerrero is 3-for-4 lifetime against Francis and throughout his career has hit lefties well (.325/.586). Guerrero hasn’t walked this season and is on the road side which means we can expect no fewer than four at-bats. Opposing this matchup is Brad Bergesen vs. Billy Butler. Like Francis, Bergesen has big righty/lefty splits and is in a favorable situation with Butler coming from the right side. Bergesen has allowed just seven hits in 31 at-bats (.226) to go with a paltry .387 SLG against righties. Butler has always been stronger against southpaws and is a modest 3-for-11 lifetime against the Orioles hurler. Based on the numbers, it appears we are getting a discount with Guerrero listed
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MLB
Kansas City
Jeff Francis
Billy Butler
Baltimore Orioles
Brad Bergesen
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapping: Lack of slider dooms Liriano
05.03.2011 09:11 AM
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Minnesota (Liriano) at Chicago (Jackson) -130 O/U 9
When a well respected pitcher goes through an extended stretch of struggles it is always challenging for bettors to get to the bottom of the issue. The health of a pitcher is typically the first avenue to explore. Sometimes a pitcher can be damaged goods but still continue to throw – mild soreness, dead arm, etc. But when injuries are eliminated from the equation, statistics become the next line of questioning. In the case of Minnesota's Francisco Liriano, it appears as if he is injury free. He's a Tommy John guy but proved last season to be fully healed (14-10, 191.2 IP, 201 Ks, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). In looking at Liriano's 2011 numbers, his BAbip is relatively normal (.307) as is his groundball-to-fly ball ratio. What stands out is his lack of command with 18 walks in 23.2 innings.
FanGraphs
points out that for whatever reason – perhaps better scouting – teams are not offering at Liriano's pitches outside of the strike zone. And his bread and butter pitch, the slider, up until this point hasn't been the plus-pitch it was throughout his career. The Twins can ill afford to pull Liriano out of the rotation but it is tough to continually send a guy to the mound with a 9.13 ERA.
Tags:
MLB
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
Chicago White Sox
Edwin Jackson
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MLB Handicapping: Latos a sizable favorite despite losing streak
05.03.2011 06:38 AM
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Pittsburgh (Karstens) at San Diego (Latos)
It has been a while since San Diego won a game that Mat Latos pitched – September 7, 2011 to be exact. Since then, Latos is 0-9 with a 6.59 ERA. In his defense, the Padres scored only 13 runs in those nine contests but that is part of the deal with betting on this team. Latos' workload over the last two seasons has jumped dramatically as he made the Verducci list for a second straight year. There doesn't appear to be anything wrong with him but the numbers are a concern. Also a concern is Latos’ place in the betting market; priced as if he is pitching behind the Yankees’ offense and not the Padres. It is extremely tough to support a team that averages exactly three runs per game with a struggling pitcher at a -150 price tag...even if the opponent is Pittsburgh, who won Game 1 of the series behind James McDonald.
Mat Latos Results Last 9 Games
 Date
Opponent
Score
Dec
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
4/27
Atlanta
L 0-7
L
5
7
6
1
0
1
5
4/21
Philadelphia
L 0-3
L
4.1
4
3
3
2
5
7
4/16
at Houston
L 3-5
L
6.1
4
5
5
1
2
6
4/11
Cincinnati
L 2-3
L
6
4
3
3
2
2
7
10/3
at San Francisco
L 0-3
L
6
8
2
2
0
0
4
9/28
Chicago Cubs
L 2-5
L
5.2
7
4
2
1
2
6
9/23
at Los Angeles
L 1-3
L
5
6
3
3
0
1
4
9/27
at St. Louis
L 4-14
L
1.1
9
8
8
0
2
1
9/12
San Francisco
L 1-6
L
4
7
5
5
1
2
4
0-9
43.2
56
39
32
7
17
44
Tags:
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeff Karstens
San Diego
Mat Latos
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