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College Football Handicapping: ACC Stat Day

07.31.2013     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The ACC has expanded this year, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh moving over from the Big East. So, as we run through each category, I’ve included with those two teams did in the Big East last season. It’s tempting to say that you have to make mental adjustments because the Big East was worse than the ACC. But, there was so much mediocre (or worse) play in the ACC last year…that there may not have been much of a difference.

Louisville and Syracuse obviously did the Big East proud in bowls last year. There were two heads-up meetings between the Big East and ACC. Rutgers and Virginia Tech went overtime in one of the worst bowl games ever played. Cincinnati needed a few miracles to beat Duke by 14 points (they were about to lose straight up as 9-point favorites in the final minutes)…which is a strike against the Big East. Maybe dock the stats of Syracuse and Pittsburgh a smidge.

ACC Offenses (Conference Games Only)

Florida State: 7.0 yards-per-play, 19 Read more

Tags: College Football ACC Stat Intelligence

NCAA Football Gambling: Clemson defense could surprise in DC Venables' second year

07.30.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Clemson Tigers put up some impressive offensive numbers during last season's 11-2 campaign and are expected to do the same in 2013 with quarterback Tajh Boyd back. But keep an eye out for the defense under second-year in defensive coordinator Brent Venables. The Tigers allowed 440.2 yards per game the first seven games of 2012 but improved to 345.3 ypg their final six contests.

"We solved some issues and got substantially better as the year went on," he said.

"You could see us getting better each week. The players understanding more and more about what we wanted them to do," defensive ends coach Marion Hobby said. "We think that's going to continue this year."

Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers ACC

College Football Betting: Memphis looks to take next step under Fuente

07.30.2013     10:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Last season could be considered a success for the Memphis Tigers who finished 4-8 overall and 4-4 in C-USA (7-5 ATS). From 2009-11, they won only three games vs. BCS competition. Head coach Justin Fuente is optimistic about 2013 despite the step up in class as the Tigers move to the American Athletic Conference (former Big East plus UCF, Houston, and SMU). Memphis is slated to return eight starters on both sides of the ball.

"We went into this with our eyes wide open. We knew what we got," Fuente said. The program had been put through the wringer; most of all, he said, the roster he took over "had been through a lot."

"Some of them had been there when Tommy (West) was there," he said. "And Tommy had been there for a long time, and won ballgames. And then they kind of went on a little downturn.

"They were, I would say, somewhat distrustful of another guy coming in there. I think our staff has done a great job. Our strength staff has done maybe the best

Read more

Tags: College Football Memphis Tigers AAC

College Football Gambling: Missouri Tigers ready for second season in SEC

07.30.2013     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Missouri Tigers took their lumps in more ways than one during their first season in the SEC. They finished 5-7 overall and 2-6 in league play – wins vs. Tennessee (OT) and Kentucky. Against the SEC's elite (Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas A&M) the Tigers went 0-4 SU/ATS and were outscored 173-69. But it should be noted that Mizzou dealt with a lot of injuries last season, in particular to the offensive line. According to Pinnacle, Missouri is lined at 6ov-134 regular season wins.

"I'm not going to use it as an excuse, but there were definitely times when it affected us more mentally than physically," Franklin said at SEC media days. "We let it affect us more mentally, and it kept us from doing what we wanted to do. I'm not saying we were going to win a championship or anything, but we definitely would have been better than 5-7."

"Last year was different from any other time since I've been in coaching," Pinkel said. "I had never lost a starting quarterback for a game or two at all,

Read more

Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers SEC

College Football Handicapping: PAC-12 Stat Day

07.30.2013     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Today we look at the PAC-12 conference, as we continue our series of stat capsules from the 2012 season. By now you’ve probably seen a few of these, so I won’t run through all the stat categories again. If you’re new, the stuff is pretty self-explanatory anyway. The data comes from, and features conference games ONLY to erase the usual pollution that comes from varied non-conference schedules.

The most important thing to notice about the PAC-12 is that it’s just about the sloppiest conference imaginable! It’s like almost everyone decided that AFL football from the 1960’s was the right way to play…and who the heck cares about turning the ball over anyway. The relatively clean play of Oregon and Stanford put them on another island compared to the other teams who are getting some yardage production.

PAC-12 Offenses (Conference Games Only)

USC: 6.9 yards-per-play, 27 giveaways

Oregon: 6.6 Read more

Tags: College Football PAC-12 Stat Intelligence

College Football Handicapping: Big XII Stat Day

07.29.2013     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Continuing our series of “stat day” summaries to mirror “media day” college football coverage. If this is the first one of these you’ve read. We’re looking at:

2012 Yards-Per-Play (Offense and Defense)

2012 Turnovers (Offense and Defense)

2012 Third Down Conversions (Offense and Defense)

2013 Returning Starters

The stats are for CONFERENCE action ONLY, so we don’t get pollution from widely varied non-conference schedules. I gathered them at The returning starter data was pulled from the Athlon publication, and may be a little outdated given recent arrests, injuries, suspensions, etc…

I’ve tried to link stats together in a way that helps paint a picture for each team. We start by looking at offenses…with an eye on per-play production within a successful risk/reward approach. Who can move the ball while protecting it? Who couldn’t move the ball? Who couldn’t protect Read more

Tags: College Football Big XII Stat Intelligence

College Football Handicapping: SEC Stat Day

07.28.2013     08:56 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The SEC has already had its set of “Media Days” last week. Didn’t hear much talk about key stats from last year. The media begged coaches to trash talk each other or Urban Meyer. They hoped Johnny Manziel would say or do something inappropriate…then hoped somebody else would comment on what a brat Manziel is. They talked about Texas A&M’s great offense without acknowledging that Alabama’s offense was actually better on a per play basis while committing fewer turnovers in league action.

Let’s rectify that, and paint a picture of what the SEC looked like top-to-bottom last year. The stats you see below are from conference games only…which means eight games for everyone but nine for Alabama and Georgia (who met in the SEC Championship). The numbers are gathered from, which is a great site if you’re trying to dig up data in a boatload of categories.

We start with offenses, focusing on yards-per-play and giveaways…which is Read more

Tags: College Football SEC Stat Intelligence

College Football Gambling: Former Ball State HC now OC at Eastern Michigan

07.26.2013     11:28 AM     Printer Friendly

Earlier this week, we blogged about Eastern Michigan head coach Ron English's decision to take over as defensive coordinator. Now we take a look at EMU first-year offensive coordinator Stan Parrish who served as Ball State's head coach from 2008-10. The Eagles averaged only 333.7 ypg last season.

“It brings an instant belief and confidence,” English said at Mid-American Conference media day. “His resume speaks for itself. He doesn’t have to talk about it.”

“First day of spring ball, seeing the new playbook and everything, everyone gets a little nervous; you’ve got to learn some new plays,” EMU junior offensive lineman Lincoln Hansen said. “But we got real excited seeing the plays, and we’ve got a lot of guys who just feel comfortable in the system and they’re really loving the offense.”

Read more

Tags: College Football Eastern Michigan Eagles MAC

College Football Handicapping: Big 10 Stat Day

07.26.2013     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

All the major college football conferences are having “media” days (or two, or three). Since little of the media coverage coming out of those days involves stats…I’ll try to put together some “stat days” between now and the start of the season. The Big 10 is under the spotlight at the moment all over the internet. So, let’s start there.

First…a review of Big 10 offenses last year, focusing on the basic fundamentals of moving the ball and protecting it. Remember that there are now 12 teams in the Big 10. They’re ranked immediately below by yards-per-play on offense in conference play ONLY to help weed out the goofy stuff that happens against widely variant non-league schedules. That means 8 games for everybody but Wisconsin and Nebraska. They played each other in the Big 10 Championship game, so their numbers are pulled from a 9-game sampling. These are the numbers as reported by the college football stats site

Big 10 Read more

Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Texas Tech brings in yet another first-year defensive coordinator

07.25.2013     12:36 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Amazingly, Texas Tech is on its fifth defensive coordinator in five years. Andin  each of those seasons there was a change in overall philosophy with the 4-3, 3-4, and 4-2-5 all being implemented at one time or another. This year, under first-year DC Matt Wallerstedt, TTU will go back to the well with the 3-4.

“It’s gotten easier every year,” Hyder said. “It’s really about having blind faith. You’ve got to realize these coaches that are coming in want the best for you. They’re going to put a defense in place and you just roll with it.

Tags: College Football Texas Tech Red Raiders Big XII


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