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NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part II

07.28.2014     06:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2013 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple – getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in a strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2014.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2014 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google “2014 NFL Strength of Schedule” and you’ll find countless charts exactly like the one below…

2014 NFL Strength of Schedule (Generic)
Rank
Team
Opponent Win Pct.
1
Oakland Raiders
0.578
2
Denver Broncos
0.570
3
St. Louis Rams
0.564
4
San Diego Chargers
0.563
4
San Francisco 49ers
0.563
6
Seattle Seahawks
0.561
7
Kansas City Chiefs
0.559
8
Arizona Cardinals
0.547
9
New York Jets
0.520
10
New England Patriots
0.516
11
Atlanta Falcons
0.512
12
Miami Dolphins
0.508
13
Green Bay Packers
0.504
14
Buffalo Bills
0.500
15
Chicago Bears
0.496
16
Detroit Lions
0.492
17
Washington Redskins
0.490
18
Dallas Cowboys
0.488
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0.484
20
Philadelphia Eagles
0.479
21
Minnesota Vikings
0.477
22
Carolina Panthers
0.473
23
Cincinnati Bengals
0.469
23
New Orleans Saints
0.469
23
Pittsburgh Steelers
0.469
26
Cleveland Browns
0.465
26
New York Giants
0.465
28
Baltimore Ravens
0.461
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
0.453
30
Houston Texans
0.441
31
Tennessee Titans
0.438
32
Indianapolis Colts
0.430


The Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




CFL Week 4 Betting News and Notes

07.23.2014     07:33 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my CFL Week 4 News & Notes as I take a look at each team in the CFL providing observations, analysis and a glimpse into what is to come for all 9 CFL teams following Week 4.

Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

The frustrations were clearly evident with the Argos after their painful 18-17 loss to the expansion Ottawa Redblacks in what was Ottawa’s first home game since rejoining the CFL this season. Toronto finally got a strong performance from their rebuilt defense but oddly enough it was QB Ricky Ray and the offense (the supposed strongest part of the team) that simply couldn’t get anything going as they sputtered with stalled drives, turnovers and penalties throughout the game. It was a game that was there for the taking for Toronto but they just couldn’t make any key plays to turn it into a win. Now they sit at 1-3 after wasting a great performance from the defense and now must face the well-rested and likely angry Saskatchewan Roughriders who are coming off their bye and it’s worth noting Saskatchewan lost their game before the bye to this very Argos team in Toronto 48-15 Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so.
 
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox Read more


Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




Football Betting Podcast 7-18-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

07.18.2014     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy preview the NFC South while Erin and host Andrew Lange talked Big Ten West.

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - NFC South Preview

Erin Rynning - Big Ten West Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NFL College Football Big Ten Teddy Covers Erin Rynning




CFL Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Argonauts Ottawa RedBlacks

07.18.2014     11:56 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Toronto at Ottawa +1.5 O/U 53
Recommendation: Ottawa


After last week’s 27-11 loss in Edmonton – one they may have looked past – the Ottawa RedBlacks will host their first home game in nine years since the last franchise folded. Ottawa players have been talking all week about how big of a moment this is for the organization and city so I'm expecting a Grey Cup-level of focus and intensity. As poorly as their offense played in the loss to Edmonton, quarterback Henry Burris and the Redblacks are taking a severe step down in defensive class vs. Toronto. The Argos’ defense is completely rebuilt and it showed with 79 points allowed in two of their first three games. Toronto should be the ideal foe for the Ottawa offense to move the football. Toronto's offense is also going through its share of ups and downs. Quarterback Ricky Ray is a veteran who normally bounces back strong after a bad game but he’s working with a very depleted receiving corps which will be playing without their top three weapons – Chad Owens, Jason Barnes and Andre Durie are all out indefinitely due to injury. That pretty much leaves Toronto with one Read more


Tags: CFL Toronto Argonauts Ottawa RedBlacks Ian Cameron




College Football Gambling: UNLV regains bowl eligibility

07.17.2014     06:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There was some confusion on yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast regarding UNLV's "status" with the NCAA due to various academic shortcomings. Following their first bowl berth since 2000, the Rebels were initially banned from the 2014-15 postseason due to a low APR score. At the time, it was the first such ban for a FBS school in the APR's 10-year history – which seems ridiculously odd. Not that UNLV's kids weren’t tanking classes but that out of a 10-year span and over 120 teams, UNLV's kids were the only ones tanking classes. Fast forward to late June and due to a "miscalculation" by the NCAA, the Rebels are back to being postseason eligible. There are still lingering issues like potential player transfers as well as the 13-game schedule UNLV put together as a result of the initial ban. Now they must go 7-6 as oppose to 6-6 in order to go bowling. And Read more


Tags: College Football UNLV Rebels Mountain West




CFL Week 3 Betting News and Notes

07.15.2014     02:35 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my Week 3 CFL News and Notes as we examine each team from a betting perspective.

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The pattern of inconsistency has continued for Toronto. They were horrible in Week 1, great in Week 2, and looked bad again in Week 3. Compounding the problem is that injuries are piling up at an alarming rate. They were already without two key receivers, Andre Durie and Jason Barnes, last week and now Chad Owens will not suit up for Week 4 and beyond after suffering a foot injury in the loss to Calgary. That leaves quarterback Ricky Ray without his three top receivers this week. It also puts pressure on the Argos’ mediocre ground game to decrease the number of possessions, control the clock and to attempt to protect a rebuilt defense that has been gashed for 79 points in two of their first three games. The lone positive is Toronto has strong long-term 13-4-1 ATS track record on the highway as they visit the expansion Ottawa Redblacks this week.

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Just when Montreal’s offense finally has a breakthrough performance it is the usually stout defense Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




Teddy Covers' Famed NFL Season O/U Wins Report is here!

07.15.2014     11:26 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_7_15_2014.jpg

Teddy Covers NFL Season O/U Wins Report [68-29 70% lifetime, 10-1 91% 20*s] $199
With an unprecedented track record dating back well over a decade, Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Wins Report remains a must-have for every kind of football bettor. Over a 13-year span, Teddy's clients have been rewarded with an outstanding 68-29 70% winning mark including an incredible 10-1, 91% with TC's top rated 20* Big Tickets. Last year's 20*, the Kansas City Chiefs Over 7.5, cashed before Halloween! As always, Teddy's recommendations will include detailed written analysis. The first release is just around the corner in late July followed by any additional selections after Week 3 of the preseason. Purchase now and lock in all the plays for the incredibly low price of $199.




Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part I

07.14.2014     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Kansa City Chiefs didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty Denver.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season wins by the time their bye week rolled around.  KC’s 11-5 campaign offered a positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 7 or 7.5 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals rank among the most profitable set of wagers currently Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

07.11.2014     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Zimmermann) -140 at Philadelphia (Burnett) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington


Since the beginning of June, Jordan Zimmermann has been as good as any pitcher in baseball.  In seven starts, he has a 1.26 ERA with a 46-7 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 innings of work.  Zimmermann won 19 games last year and ranked among the best pitchers in baseball with a 4.4 WAR and 2.94 ERA in 2012. This hot streak is no fluke.

Zimmermann’s quote sums it up well: “I just started throwing strikes and locating better. The slider finally came back. I didn't have it for a month and a half. I was able to get that back. That's a big pitch."

His streak started with a dominating performance against the same Phillies lineup he’ll face today, throwing eight innings of shutout ball.  He certainly shut down Philadelphia on a consistent basis last year, allowing only four earned runs while notching three wins in four starts against Read more


Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 25, 2014 02:08 PM.