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College Basketball Handicapping: TCU's upset of Kansas highlights crazy night
02.07.2013 06:23 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Earlier tonight I posted the numbers from
TCU’s upset of Kansas
. There was a slew of games on this crazy night that could have earned their own post. That would have taken all night to write though. So, I’m going to cherry pick some key numbers from important games involving ranked teams.
#7 Arizona (-8.5) beat Stanford 73-67
Arizona fell behind Stanford 10-0 out of the gate, and it looked like we were going to see a replay of the UCLA game on this floor. But, the Wildcats settled down…got back into the game quickly enough, then pulled away in the final moments to win by six. If you buy into the theory that Arizona is overrated when they’re matched up against quality, that paid off against the market price. I’m still skeptical about how some of their
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College Basketball
Stat Intelligence
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers
02.06.2013 11:30 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Iowa
+9 at
Wisconsin
O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Iowa
My clients and I cashed a winner with Iowa as road underdogs at Ohio State last week, when the Hawkeyes rallied back from a 24-point deficit to make things verrrry interesting in the final minute in Columbus before falling short – despite an awful game from leading scorer Roy Devyn Marble.
We cashed another winner supporting the Hawkeyes on Super Bowl Sunday as they led for extended stretches of the second half, an easy wire-to-wire pointspread cover as double-digit underdogs. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Hawkeyes won’t be able to cash another winning bet for us tonight as they travel to Madison to take on a Badgers team that the Hawkeyes have beaten in each of the last three meetings.
Iowa hasn’t lost a game by ten points or more since getting blown out at Michigan on January 6th, hanging tough with quality Big Ten foes like the Ohio
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College Basketball
Iowa Hawkeyes
Wisconsin Badgers
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College Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin's crazy season from the charity stripe
02.06.2013 07:21 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Through nine Big Ten games, Wisconsin totals are 2-7 O/U. Last season in Big Ten play – with the help of two overtime games – the Badgers actually trended OVER the total at 11-7 O/U. The reason? There were a few but the key was free throws. Everyone is well aware UW’s horrific season from the free throw line (61.5% overall, 56.2% vs. Big Ten). But it’s also their inability to get to the line that is helping their games go under the total. That is until
this occurred
. Prior to the Illinois game, UW put extra
emphasis in practice
on trying to draw fouls. Amazingly, they went from not shooting a single free throw vs. Ohio State to 42 vs. Illinois.
Wisconsin rarely if ever strays away from a slow tempo and hard-nosed defense. But with totals routinely in the 115-125 range, free throws, or lack thereof can make a big difference. Take a look these numbers...
2012 (11-7 O/U)
16.7 FT attempts per game vs.
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Handicapping: Notre Dame falters, Iowa State impresses
02.05.2013 07:59 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
The struggling Notre Dame Fighting Irish flailed again Monday night in a 63-47 loss at Syracuse as 8-point underdogs. That’s now seven of the last eight games that the Irish have failed to meet market expectations in regulation.
Notre Dame’s Recent Struggles (going back in time from tonight)
Notre Dame (+8.5) lost at Syracuse 63-47 (missed by 7.5 points)
Notre Dame (-6) went overtime at DePaul (missed by 6 points in regulation)
Notre Dame (-8.5) beat Villanova 65-60 (missed by 3.5 points)
Notre Dame (-3.5) won at South Florida 73-65 (only regulation cover in last eight)
Notre Dame (-5.5) lost to Georgetown 63-47 (missed by 10.5 points)
Notre Dame (-11.5) beat Rutgers 69-66 (missed by 8.5 points)
Notre Dame (-7) lost at St. John’s 67-63 (missed by 11 points)
Notre Dame (-8.5) lost to Connecticut 65-58 (missed by 15.5 points)
The market has corrected some…as that early quartet of big
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Iowa State Cyclones
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MLB Handicapping: Sale one of this year's top Verducci Effect candidates
02.05.2013 06:20 AM
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Here a list of this year's
Verducci Effect
candidates. The biggest increase in workload came from Chicago's Chris Sale who was in and out of the rotation at times due to arm difficulties. Washington’s Stephen Strasburg also made the list despite being shut down late in the season.
2013 Verducci Effect
Pitcher, Team
Age
2012 Innings Pitched
Increase*
Chris Sale, White Sox
23
192
121
Jarrod Parker, A's
23
214/ 2/3
78
Jose Quintana, White Sox
23
185
63
Joe Kelly, Cardinals
24
187
55
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
23
159 1/3
36
Chris Rusin, Cubs
25
173
34 1/3
Matt Harvey, Mets
23
169 1/3
33 2/3
Alex Cobb, Rays
24
177 2/3
33
Felix Doubront, Red Sox
24
161
31 2/3
Dan Straily, A's
23
191 1/3
30 2/3
Andrew Werner, Padres
25
166 2/3
30 1/3
In terms of
last year's list
, as predicted, as handful had injuries or suffered some form of regression.
Derek Holland, Dylan Axelrod, Jaime Garcia, Liam Hendricks, Eric Surkamp, Chris Schwinden, Daniel Hudson, Zach Stewart and Michael Pineda.
Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, and Jeremy Hellickson all suffered slight regressions – depending on what numbers you go by – but for the most part remained healthy. Texas' Matt Harrison however was lights out though as Verducci points out, pitchers with bigger
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's best against the spread
02.04.2013 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
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The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s wild Baltimore victory, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks. I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider for the last month, but I’ve yet to write a true ‘college basketball overview’ column for any publication so far this season. That streak ends here.
I’m going take a look at the very best pointspread ‘regular board’ teams in the country in this week’s column. The list of ATS juggernauts is likely to surprise many people due to its diversity. Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs. Look no further than the single best ATS team in the nation so far this season.
I’ll wager that less than a dozen people in the country knew that Fordham is the #1 ATS team in all of DI basketball this year; 14-5 against the number. The Rams are 6-16 SU, just 2-5 in Atlantic-10 play.
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Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31...Ravens Win Super Bowl XLVII
02.04.2013 06:19 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Congratulations to all who won last night. Sincere condolences to all who lost (unless you did so with arrogant posturing through the week, then you got what you deserved!). Let’s crunch the numbers…
Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
Total Yardage: Baltimore 367, San Francisco 468
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.2, San Francisco 7.8
Rushing Yards: Baltimore 93, San Francisco 182
Passing Line: Baltimore 22-33-0-274, San Francisco 16-28-1-286
Turnovers: Baltimore 1, San Francisco 2
Third Downs: Baltimore 56%, San Francisco 22%
Sloppiness: Baltimore 16, San Francisco 22
Drive Points: Baltimore 10, San Francisco 13
Cheap Points: Baltimore 24, San Francisco 18
(If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more….sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes).
Some
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Super Bowl XLVII
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Super Bowl XLVII Gambling: Let's Talk About the 49ers' Defense
02.02.2013 09:21 AM
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Stat Intelligence
I’m starting to hear a lot of chatter about how San Francisco’s defense is going to be the deciding factor in Sunday’s Super Bowl meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. While the team certainly has a top-notch defense, it may not be quite as dominating as you were thinking.
It’s easy to remember the highlights from the past season…where the Niners embarrassed teams like the Jets, Bills, and even the Bears in a big TV game. But, when facing elite offenses, it’s been a slightly different story.
Here’s what opposing offenses from PLAYOFF teams did against San Francisco’s defense this season starting with their season opener at Green Bay, and ending with their NFC Championship win over Atlanta. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored or allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. The average this year was around 13 per offense per game. Note that the chart below deletes non-offensive scoring (for example...Green Bay had a
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San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl XLVII
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NBA Handicapping: Howard hurt, Lakers falter late in loss to Suns
01.31.2013 12:14 PM
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Stat Intelligence
For most of the evening, the Los Angeles Lakers looked to be well on their way to winning their second game in two nights, further establishing that they were in warrior mode in their attempt to chase down the #8 seed in the Western Conference brackets.
Midway through the fourth quarter, Dwight Howard re-aggravated his labrum injury trying to score in traffic. He left the game with the Lakers leading 78-73. Phoenix would win the rest of the game 19-8, striking the Lakers playoff hopes with a lightning bolt in the process…
Phoenix 92, LA Lakers 86
2-Point Percentage: Lakers 49%, Phoenix 49%
3-Point Shooting: Lakers 8/27, Phoenix 3/12
Free Throws: Lakers 12/19, Phoenix 13/15
1’s and 2’s: Lakers 62, Phoenix 83
Rebounds: Lakers 46, Phoenix 36
Turnovers: Lakers 19, Phoenix 11
You can see the two biggest issues for the Lakers were scoring differential inside the arc (Michael Beasley
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College Basketball Handicapping: Close games in the Big East, blowouts in the SEC
01.30.2013 01:28 PM
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Here are a few conference-only statistics from
Ken Pom
that break down home courts (SU), close games (4 points or less and/or OT), and blowouts (19 points or more). There are 33 conferences if you include independent. Below are the top 10 conferences and rank. In terms of home court, the ACC has been the strongest at 30-11 SU. The Missouri Valley Conference is also north of 70%. The Big East has had the highest percentage of close game at 30.9% with the A-10 not far behind at 27.3%. Interesting that despite its slow pace (63.4 possessions per game) and low scoring affairs, only six of 46 Big Ten conference games have been decided by four points or less or went to overtime. When it comes to blowouts, the SEC is top dog with 25% of its games decided by 19 points or more – in large part because of Florida who has five of the 11.
Big Ten
Home Court: 26-20, 56.5% (23)
Close Game: 6 of 46, 13.0% (28)
Blowout: 9 of 46, 19.6% (7)
Big East
Home Court: 30-25, 54.5% (26)
Close Game: 17 of 55, 30.9% (2)
Blowout: 5 of 55, 9.1%
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