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NFL Betting Trends: Strength of schedule and pointspread success in the playoffs
01.02.2013 06:29 AM
Printer Friendly
One of the best blog posts in Sportsmemo history is making its annual appearance – Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs.
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 29-11 straight up and 29-11 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location.
Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 18-3 SU, 18-3 ATS (86% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 11-7 SU, 14-4 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 7-3 ATS and 8-2 ATS.
NFL Playoffs Stength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-present
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Totals
29-11 SU
29-11 ATS
In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the leagued added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty much intact. The playoff format was modified so that four division winners and two wild cards from each conference would advance to the
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Sports Betting Podcast 12-31-2012 with Handicappers Brent Crow and Teddy Covers
12.31.2012 09:44 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers and Brent Crow. Teddy covered NFL Wild Card line moves and today's bowl games while Brent broke down the entire college hoops slate.
Today's segments
Brent Crow - College Basketball Every Game on the Board
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report and College Football
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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College Football
Teddy Covers
Brent Crow
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Teddy Covers' NFL Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year
12.31.2012 08:14 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I made my end of the year
Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year for the NFL
; a look back at some of the wackiest and nerve-wracking ATS outcomes, regardless of which side you had. This week, I’m taking something of a different tack, writing about my Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year. These plays had massive repercussions – repercussions that were felt by the betting markets for weeks, even months after the games were played. What’s a “hidden” pointspread play? Read on to find out!
No. 5 – Week 12, Miami sack vs. Seattle
The Seahawks led throughout the second half, but a late Dolphins TD had the game tied 21-21 at the two minute warning. Seattle was driving, facing a first and ten at the Dolphins 40 yard line, needing only a few more yards to put them in position for a game winning field goal try from kicker Stephen Hauschka. But they lost yardage on their first down running attempt, then lost yardage again on a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage on second
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NFL Handicapping: Oakland to start Terrelle Pryor vs. San Diego
12.28.2012 01:29 PM
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Well, if anything, Sunday's Oakland-San Diego game will be a tad more interesting. After giving Matt Leinart the start last week – the results were very Mark Sanchez-esque – the Raiders have decided to go with
Terrelle Pryor
to close out the season. Oakland must have gotten the memo that unlike Leinart, there is at least a small chance Pryor won't totally suck.
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Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers
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Sports Betting Podcast 12-28-2012 NFL Every Game on the Board
12.28.2012 10:23 AM
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Week 17 NFL Every Game on the Board Podcast. Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Full Show - NFL Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NFL Game on the Board Part I
Alf Musketa - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Erin Rynning
Alf Musketa
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Sportsbooks price Denver Broncos as Super Bowl betting favorites
12.28.2012 08:34 AM
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Denver head coach John Fox seems to know how the world of betting works. He recently downplayed the fact that some sportsbooks have his squad as slight
Super Bowl favorites
. Bookmaker lists the Broncos at +300 while 5Dimes has +405.
“I grew up in San Diego,” Fox said. “And we went to the horse tracks a lot. There are a lot of favorites, and it doesn’t work out like that all the time.
“You have to earn this between the lines. (Being the favorite) won’t affect our attitude or mindset moving forward.”
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NFL Betting News: Cleveland may start QB Thaddeus Lewis vs. Pittsburgh
12.27.2012 11:18 AM
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Cleveland
at
Pittsburgh
With Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy both doubtful, Cleveland's
Thaddeus Lewis
took snaps with the first-team offense during Wednesday's practice. Josh Johnson is currently listed as Lewis' backup. Lewis has never taken a regular season snap during his career.
“If my number does get called against the Steelers, it would be wonderful,” Lewis said. “I would be living out my childhood dream of playing in the NFL. As a football player, you would love the opportunity to be out there, no matter where it is.
“But for now, my job was just to take reps with the ones today at practice. Brandon and Colt are very competitive, so I know they will do anything they can to get better as soon as possible.”
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NFL Handicapping: Playoff scenarios heading into Week 17
12.27.2012 11:08 AM
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Here's a
link
to one of many NFL playoff scenario breakdowns. The quick version is as follows: The AFC's six playoff teams are already set. Houston, Denver and New England are still jockeying for the top three seeds. Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati are all in. In the NFC, Atlanta is locked into the No. 1 spot. Green Bay, Seattle and San Francisco are in the hunt for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas and New York are all fighting for the final two spots.
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Sports Betting Podcast 12-27-2012 with Handicapper Teddy Covers
12.27.2012 09:44 AM
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Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy broke down NFL Week 17 line moves and playoff scenarios.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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The NFL's Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year
12.27.2012 05:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
In my world, there’s nothing better than a ‘right side’ winner – no drama, no sweating; an easy ‘rocking chair’ cover. Of course, cashing nothing but ‘right side’ winners is MUCH easier said than done. In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a late, key play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner.
As the end of the NFL season approaches. I’ve gone back through my notes, looking at the some of the wackiest pointspread outcomes of the year – the really memorable ones. End of the year Top 10 lists are so passé, so I’ll call this my Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year. Let’s start the countdown with No. 7
No. 7 – Week 11, Green Bay Packers late field goal
Green Bay was a three-point road favorite at slumping Detroit, but they trailed for most of the game, and were behind by six points at the 2-minute warning. Lions’ bettors weren’t worried – a Green Bay touchdown, in theory, would only lead to a one-point, non-covering win. Aaron Rodgers threw for that touchdown on the very first play
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