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October

24

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more


Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Update: Losing week for SuperContest Week 1 consensus picks

09.08.2014     07:38 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Same results, different season. Regardless of what happens with tonight's Lions-Giants game, SuperContest conesus plays (top five) took a net loss. The two most popular picks, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, both failed to cover. So did New Orleans as the Saints fell in OT to Atlanta, 37-34. The lone underdog of the top five, Tennessee (+3.5) crushed Kansas City. The Lions (-5.5) are still pending. Last year's top five consensus picks were well below .500.





NFL Gambling: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh top picks for Week 1 SuperContest

09.07.2014     08:15 AM     View Original Blog


Below are the top consensus plays for Week 1 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest. Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh top picks for Week 1 SuperContest

09.07.2014     08:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 1 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest.

1. Tampa Bay -2 vs. Carolina
2. Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Cleveland
3. Tennessee +3.5 at Kansas City
4. Detroit -5.5 vs. NY Giants
5. New Orleans -3 at Atlanta

Least picked side: Oakland +5.5 (7%) at NY Jets



Tags: NFL




NFL Betting Podcast 9-5-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

09.05.2014     11:53 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_nfl_podcast_bar.jpg

Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured NFL Week 1 Every Game on the Board coverage. Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - NFL Game on the Board Part I

Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Erin Rynning




NFL Handicapping: League gets the Elo Ratings treatment

09.05.2014     11:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stat nerds will love this. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has created Elo Ratings for the NFL. Here's a link to Silver discussing the science behind it and another link to the ratings. His "spread" on last night's Packers-Seattle game was -10. One of the biggest discrepancies for Sunday's games is Detroit -1.5 vs. New York. The market currently has the Lions priced as a 6-point home favorite.


Do you also account for margin of victory?

Affirmative. I took some inspiration from the soccer ratings, which account for goal differential in addition to the game result. But this is one of the more complicated parts.

For the NFL, I start by adding one point to team’s margin of victory and then take its natural logarithm. Then I multiply that result by the K value. That means I’m more moved by big wins than narrow ones, although there are diminishing returns. I’m not so impressed by the fifth touchdown when a team is ahead 28-0.

Read more


Tags: NFL




Oddsmaker says Chicago Bears are an OVER team

09.05.2014     10:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers Jay Kornegay, Jimmy Vaccaro, and Chris Andrews weigh in on the Chicago Bears. Kornegay said the Bears will be in a lot of shootouts this season.


Kornegay: When you’re talking about moving numbers below 10, that takes quite a bit of money. A half game is very valuable. To win the Super Bowl, the most money is on the Seahawks. But the most tickets we’ve sold to win it are on the Bears, Packers and Vikings. Midwesterners bet on their teams. I’ve always told people that once the Cubs win the World Series, I’ll probably be out of a job.





Tags: NFL Chicago Bears




NFL Gambling Update: Carolina's Newton upgraded to probable

09.05.2014     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina at Tampa Bay -2.5 O/U 39

According to reports, Carolina's Cam Newton (rib) is "on pace" to start Week 1's opener at Tampa Bay. They Panthers won't make it official, however, until Sunday. Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite but since Newton's injury because public, we've seen a steady flow of Tampa Bay money. Offshore sportsbooks 5Dimes and Jazz currently have the Bucs -3 (ev).


"How I'm feeling right now, I'm on pace to be ready to go on Sunday.''

Asked what could disrupt that, Newton jokingly said, "Maybe from walking home, somebody wants to [mug] me or something like that. Getting hit by a car. Running away from a tiger. There's a lot of things that could disrupt that pace.''

"It's not just about Game 1, also,'' Rivera said. "Let's be realistic. This is not a sprint, Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers




NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Seahawks and OVER

09.04.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the consensus bets for tonight’s NFL regular season opener between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
55.0% - Seattle -5.5

TOTAL
68.6% - OVER 46.5

MONEYLINE
59.8% - Green Bay +210

 

 



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks




Sportsmemo Erin Rynning featured in ESPN Insider NFL preview

09.04.2014     01:51 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynnin contributed a few seasonal betting recommendations for ESPN Insider. Here's a link to the article (paywall).



Tags: NFL Erin Rynning




NFL Gambling Alert: Oakland names Carr Week 1 starter

09.03.2014     06:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland at New York Jets -5.5 O/U 39.5

Despite acquiring Matt Schaub during the offseason, the Oakland Raiders announced that rookie Derek Carr will start Week 1's game vs. the New York Jets. It's one of only two games (Carolina at Tampa Bay the other) on the card currently totaled below 40.


"We've seen signs of Derek Carr's development from the day he stepped on campus here to where he is at right now," Allen told reporters. "We've seen him grow by leaps and bounds and I think he's ready to accept the challenge."








Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders New York Jets



11

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 24, 2014 09:50 AM.