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College Football Betting: USC will play two quarterbacks vs. Hawaii

08.27.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
USC -21.5 at Hawaii O/U 53.5

Here we are with yet another team determined to start the season with a two quarterback system. According to USC head coach Lane Kiffin Max Wittek and Cody Kessler will both see time during Thursday's game at Hawaii.

"That really is how well both guys did," Kiffin told reporters after practice. "For us, we look at it as a great thing. We've got two guys that we feel great about. We don't feel like we have to limit our offense with either one of them in there."

"They've both done so well, made so many plays," Kiffin said. "It didn't show itself that one guy was above the other guy, so we do it all the time with other positions. We're not going to be stubborn and name a starter just because we're

Read more

Tags: College Football USC Trojans PAC-12 Hawaii Warriors Mountain West

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Football Gambling Preview: LSU Tigers vs. TCU Horned Frogs

08.26.2013     12:46 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Marty Otto's Recommendation:
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN (at Cowboys Stadium)
CRIS Opener:
LSU -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: LSU -4 O/U 50

This is one of the marquee games of college football’s opening week and it’s being played on a monster stage. It’s Saturday night, on ESPN primetime, at massive Cowboys Stadium. The Tigers currently find themselves as 4-point favorites and I wouldn’t expect them to go off at anything less than that number barring a major suspension or injury.

Les Miles enters his ninth season as head coach at LSU. His teams have managed to win at least 10 games in each of the last three years and in six of his previous eight seasons. John Chavis remains as the defensive coordinator. Cam Cameron is the new offensive coordinator after a long stint in the NFL.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson has been at the helm for 13 years Read more

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC TCU Horned Frogs Big XII Otto Sports

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08.26.2013     09:43 AM     Printer Friendly
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Sports Betting Podcast 8-26-2013 with Handicapper Teddy Covers

08.26.2013     09:26 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave his initial thoughts on the lines for Week 4 of the NFL Preseason. We also gave out a HUGE special offer for weekly service on College Football.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Betting: With Ault gone, Nevada plans on tweaking offense

08.26.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
After 28 years as a head coach, Nevada's Chris Ault decided to step aside this past offseason. The Wolf Pack brought in Brian Polian who served as a special teams coach at Notre Dame, Stanford, and Texas A&M. Nick Rolovich is back for his second season as offensive coordinator. According to Rolovich, Ault called most of the plays last season. Nevada ran the ball 62% of the time but plans on expanding the passing game more with quarterback Cody Fajardo (2,786 yards, 67%, 20 TDs, 9 INTs).

“We’re going to put a little bit more on the quarterback in terms of, he will have options on certain plays — he can do this or he can do that. And certainly we’ve expanded the passing game a little bit and that’s Nick’s influence. The core beliefs of what we do, that won’t change. But there will be wrinkles.”

“Coach Ault definitely called the majority of the plays,” Rolovich said. “We talked mostly during the week on

Read more

Tags: College Football Nevada Wolf Pack Mountain West

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

College Football Betting: Southern Miss has issues along offensive line

08.23.2013     08:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
When you're off an 0-12 season, there are going to be a lot of questions heading into Week 1. For Southern Miss and first-year head coach Todd Monken, one of those questions is the offense line which returns only one full-time starter. Last year's unit allowed 30 sacks and yet the offense attempted only 313 passes. USM's Week 1 opponent Texas State notched only 13 sacks last year and allowed 5.7 ypc. The Bobcats do however return nearly their entire front seven as well as the addition of a few transfers.

“They haven’t played, and we don’t have enough guys,” he said early in fall camp. “There are a couple of guys that have stepped up, but we only have about five or six guys that right now I think could play.” 

Tags: College Football Southern Miss Golden Eagles C-USA

College Football Gambling: UL-Lafayette brings in new defensive coordinator

08.23.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Offense wasn't an issue for UL-Lafayette last season as the Ragin' Cajuns rolled up a Sun Belt-leading 486.3 ypg of offense in conference play. The problem was defense as they allowed a Sun Belt-worst 457.6 ypg. This past offseason, third-year head coach Mark Hudspeth brought in former NFL linebacker James Willis to serve as defensive coordinator. Willis last served as DC at Texas Tech in 2010. The Red Raiders finished 114th in total defense that year (456.3 ypg).

“Our strength right now is gonna have to be in the middle. We rely on everything we do up front,” said Willis, who calls the Cajun defense inexperienced “across the board.”

“We build our defense from inside out, and up front we do have some big, very physical, athletic guys. Right now that is the focal point of our defense. That’s what we will build everything around … because that, to me, is our foundation.”

“I think Coach Willis’ best attribute is that he is a teacher. At linebacker, I can pretty much tell what is happening

Read more

Tags: College Football UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Sun Belt

College Football Betting: Oklahoma chooses Knight over Bell for starting QB gig

08.23.2013     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The rumors were true. Oklahoma is going with quarterback redshirt freshman Trevor Knight for Week 1's tilt against UL-Monroe. Knight, who has never taken a college snap, earned the job over junior Blake Bell. Considering Bob Stoops' history with quarterbacks, we're more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his decision. There were questions on whether or not Bell could be efficient enough in the passing game despite his running ability. Back in 2009, freshman Landry Jones was thrust into the starting job when Sam Bradford suffered multiple injuries. It was one of OU's worst seasons under Stoops (8-5 SU, 4-8 ATS).

"Both Trevor and Blake have competed hard and both will be ready to play against Louisiana-Monroe," Stoops said in a statement. "Like every other position on our team, I expect them both to continue to compete for the starting job."

"We're very aware that these guys are all capable of moving around with the ball more than maybe some we've had," Stoops said Tuesday. "If that happens,

Read more

Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners Big XII


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