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College Football ATS Analysis: Golden Nugget's GOY vs. CRIS Week 8

10.15.2012     06:18 AM     Printer Friendly
Checking in with the college football betting markets as we compare the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year from early June vs. CRIS's current numbers for Week 8.

2012 Week 8 College Football Lines Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS
Away
Home
Golden Nugget
CRIS Current
UNLV
Boise State
Boise State -35.5
Boise State -27.5
Colorado
USC
USC -36
USC -40
Alabama
Tennessee
Alabama -17
Alabama -19.5
BYU
Notre Dame
Notre Dame -10
Notre Dame -14
Baylor
Texas
Texas -11
Texas -10
LSU
Texas A&M
LSU -8
LSU -3
Stanford
California
Stanford -4
Stanford -2.5
South Carolina
Florida
Florida -4
Florida -3
Florida State
Miami (FL)
Florida State -10
Florida State -17.5
Michigan State
Michigan
Michigan -6
Michigan -10
Kansas Sate
West Virginia
West Virginia -7.5
West Virginia -3




Tags: College Football




Sportsmemo's College Football Week 7 Betting Recap

10.15.2012     05:59 AM     Printer Friendly
By the betting numbers...College Football Week 7 (see results below). Note that we use CRIS's opening and closing lines. We do not include games involving FCS teams.

Based on closing lines…

Home teams won by a small margin at 26-25 ATS (Road teams are 169-153 ATS YTD). There were two neutral site games (indicated by *). There was one push (K-State -6 at Iowa State).

Favorite had the edge this week at 26-24 ATS (Underdogs are 169-158 ATS YTD). Three games closed as a pick 'em. There was one push (K-State -6 at Iowa State).

Double-digits favorites and underdogs were split 10-10 ATS (DD underdogs are 90-76 ATS YTD).

21 of 54 games were decided by 7 points or less. 26 of 54 games were lined 7 points or less.

Totals went 26-28 Over/Under (170-168-3 O/U YTD).

Beating the Market: If you bet the opening number on a team that moved three points or more based on the closing line (i.e. UCLA -5.5) you went: 5-4 ATS (44-27 ATS YTD)

Chasing the Market: If you bet the closing number on a team that moved three points or more (i.e. UCLA -9.5) you went: 4-5 ATS (34-34-3 ATS YTD).

Based on the opening and closing lines, the market was "correct" 21 times but "incorrect" 26 times. "Correct" meaning if a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite won by 7, the market was “correct.” If a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite lost outright, the market was obviously "incorrect." Note that in seven games, the game opened and closed at the same number.
 
Parlay combo breakdown (50 games) (323 games YTD)
Favorite-Over: 11 (86 YTD)
Favorite-Under: 15 (70 YTD)
Underdog-Over: 12 (75 YTD)
Underdog-Under: 12 (92 YTD)

Note that we did not include pick ‘em lines and pushes in our parlay combos.

2012 College Football Week 7 Betting Recap
Away Team
Home Team
Open
Close
Final
ATS
O/U Close
Arizona State
Colorado
ASU -23.5
ASU -22
ASU 51, COL 17
Favorite
Over 56
UTEP
Tulsa
TULS -15
TULS -16.5
TULS 33, UTEP 11
Favorite
Under 58
Western Kentucky
Troy
WKU -2
TROY pk
WKU 31, TROY 26
N/A
Over 54
Navy
Central Michigan
NAVY -2.5
CMU -1
NAVY 31, CMU 13
Underdog
Under 57
Texas
Oklahoma*
OU -3.5
OU -3
OU 63, TEX 21
Favorite
Over 54.5
Iowa
Michigan State
MSU -11.5
MSU -8
UI 19, MSU 16 2OT
Underdog
Under 39
North Carolina
Miami (FL)
UNC -5.5
UNC -7.5
UNC 18, MFL 14
Underdog
Under 71
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
BG -6.5
BG -8.5
BG 37, MOH 12
Favorite
Under 53
Kent State
Army
ARMY -1.5
KSU -1
KSU 31, ARMY 17
Favorite
Under 59
Akron
Ohio
OU -20
OU -18
OU 34, ARK 28
Underdog
Under 68
Toledo
Eastern Michigan
TOL -13.5
TOL -15
TOL 52, EMU 47
Underdog
Over 54.5
Maryland
Virginia
UVA -3
UVA -2
MARY 27, UVA 20
Underdog
Over 44
Duke
Virginia Tech
VT -9.5
VT -9
VT 41, DUKE 20
Favorite
Over 55
Wisconsin
Purdue
PUR pk
PUR pk
UW 38, PUR 14
N/A
Over 49.5
Northwestern
Minnesota
NW -3.5
NW -3
NW 21, MIN 13
Favorite
Under 54
Syracuse
Rutgers
RUT -7.5
RUT -6.5
RUT 23, SYR 15
Favorite
Under 50.5
Boston College
Florida State
FSU -28
FSU -29
FSU 51, BC 7
Favorite
Over 52.5
Temple
Connecticut
CONN -4
CONN -4
TEM 17, UC 14 OT
Underdog
Under 41
Louisville
Pittsburgh
UL -1.5
UL -2
UL 45, PITT 35
Favorite
Over 50
Memphis
East Carolina
ECU -20
ECU -17.5
ECU 41, MEM 7
Favorite
Under 48.5
Florida
Vanderbilt
UF -9
UF -9.5
UF 31, VAN 17
Favorite
Over 39
Air Force
Wyoming
AFA -1.5
AFA -6
AFA 28, WYO 27
Underdog
Under 59.5
Western Michigan
Ball State
BSU -1.5
BSU -2.5
BSU 30, WMU 24 OT
Favorite
Under 65.5
Buffalo
Northern Illinois
NIU -14
NIU -14
NIU 45, BUF 3
Favorite
Under 56
Idaho
Texas State
TSU -2.5
TSU -1.5
TSU 38, IDA 7
Favorite
Under 54.5
Kansas State
Iowa State
KSU -6.5
KSU -6
KSU 27, ISU 21
Push
Under 48.5
Auburn
Mississippi
MISS -3.5
MISS -4
MISS 41, AUB 20
Favorite
Over 48.5
UAB
Houston
HOU -13.5
HOU -13
HOU 39, UAB 17
Favorite
Under 67
Illinois
Michigan
UM -21.5
UM -25
UM 45, ILL 0
Favorite
Under 48
Fresno State
Boise State
BSU -9
BSU -7
BSU 20, FSU 10
Favorite
Under 56
USC
Washington
USC -13.5
USC -14.5
USC 24, UW 10
Underdog
Under 55.5
Oregon State
BYU
BYU -3.5
BYU -5.5
OSU 42, BYU 24
Underdog
Over 38.5
Alabama
Missouri
ALA -17.5
ALA -21
ALA 42, MIZZ 10
Favorite
Over 41
Stanford
Notre Dame
ND -9.5
ND -9.5
ND 20, STAN 13 OT
Underdog
Under 42
Utah State
San Jose State
SJSU pk
SJSU -2.5
USU 49, SJSU 27
Underdog
Over 51
Kentucky
Arkansas
ARK -16.5
ARK -17
ARK 49, UK 7
Favorite
Over 54.5
Tennessee
Mississippi State
MSU -2.5
MSU -3
MSU 41, UT 31
Favorite
Over 56
South Carolina
LSU
LSU -4
LSU -3
LSU 23, USC 21
Underdog
Over 37.5
California
Washington State
CAL -7
CAL -7
CAL 31, WSU 17
Favorite
Under 55
West Virginia
Texas Tech
WVU -5
WVU -3
TTU 49, WVU 14
Underdog
Under 75
TCU
Baylor
BAY -6
BAY -6
TCU 49, BAY 21
Underdog
Over 68.5
Southern Miss
Central Florida
USC -14
UCF -16.5
CF 38, SM 31 2 OT
Underdog
Over 52
Oklahoma State
Kansas
OSU -20
OSU -26.5
OSU 20, KU 14
Underdog
Under 68
Ohio State
Indiana
OSU -18
OSU -19
OSU 52, IU 49
Underdog
Over 64
SMU
Tulane
SMU -20
SMU -19
TUL 27, SMU 26
Underdog
Over 49.5
UTSA
Rice
RICE -4
RICE -2
RICE 34, UTSA 14
Favorite
Under 57.5
Nevada
UNLV
NEV -14
NEV -14
NEV 42, UNLV 37
Underdog
Over 63
Colorado State
San Diego State
SDSU -19
SDSU -22.5
SDSU 38, CSU 14
Favorite
Under 54
Utah
UCLA
UCLA -5.5
UCLA -9.5
UCLA 21, UTAH 14
Underdog
Under 51.5
New Mexico
Hawaii
UNM -2
HAW pk
UMN 35, HAW 23
N/A
Over 51
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Monroe
ULM -23
ULM -23.5
ULM 35, FAU 14
Underdog
Under 56
South Alabama
Arkansas State
ASU -20
ASU -21
ASU 36, USA 29
Underdog
Over 51.5
Middle Tennessee
Florida International
MTSU -2.5
MTSU -1.5
MTSU 34, FIU 30
Favorite
Over 55
Texas A&M
Louisiana Tech*
TA&M -6
TA&M -9.5
TA&M 59, LT 57
Underdog
Over 77




Tags: College Football




College Football Gambling: Week 7 2nd Half kickoff list

10.13.2012     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
We'll be updating the list throughout the day to help you with your second half wagers.

2012 College Football Week 7 2nd half Kickoff List
Game #
Away Team
Home Team
Receive 2nd Half Kick
111
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas
113
Iowa
Michigan State
Michigan State
115
North Carolina
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
117
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Bowling Green
119
Kent State
Army
Kent State
121
Akron
Ohio
Akron
123
Toledo
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
125
Maryland
Virginia
Virginia
127
Duke
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
129
Wisconsin
Purdue
Wisconsin
131
Northwestern
Minnesota
Northwestern
133
Syracuse
Rutgers
Syracuse
135
Boston College
Florida State
Florida State
137
Temple
Connecticut
Temple
139
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Louisville
141
Memphis
East Carolina
Memphis
143
Florida
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
145
Air Force
Wyoming
Wyoming
147
Western Michigan
Ball State
Western Michigan
149
Buffalo
Northern Illinois
Buffalo
151
Idaho
Texas State
Idaho
153
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas State
155
Auburn
Mississippi
Mississippi
157
UAB
Houston
Houston
159
Illinois
Michigan
Michigan
161
Fresno State
Boise State
Boise State
163
USC
Washington
USC
165
Oregon State
BYU
BYU
167
Alabama
Missouri
Missouri
169
Stanford
Notre Dame
Notre Dame
171
Utah State
San Jose State
Utah State
173
Kentucky
Arkansas
Arkansas
175
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Tennessee
177
South Carolina
LSU
LSU
179
California
Washington State
California
181
West Virginia
Texas Tech
West Virginia
183
TCU
Baylor
TCU
185
Southern Miss
Central Florida
Southern Miss
187
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas
189
Ohio State
Indiana
Indiana
191
SMU
Tulane
Tulane
193
UTSA
Rice
Rice
195
Nevada
UNLV
Nevada
197
Colorado State
San Diego State
Colorado State
199
Utah
UCLA
Colorado State
201
New Mexico
Hawaii
 
203
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe
205
South Alabama
Arkansas State
Arkansas State
207
Middle Tennessee
Florida International
Middle Tennessee
235
Texas A&M
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech




Tags: College Football




Don't miss Saturday's Sportsmemo Week 7 College Football Live Forum Chat

10.12.2012     02:25 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We'll be back in action on Saturday with the Sportsmemo College Football Live Forum Chat. Follow us throughout the day with analysis and input from the Sportsmemo Handicappers as well as free halftime recommendations. Be there or be square! If you aren't a posting forum member, click here for your free registration.



Tags: College Football




College Football Handicapping: Boston College defense decimated by injuries

10.12.2012     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boston College at Florida State -28 O/U 54

Some major injury concerns for Boston College's defense heading into Saturday's game at Florida State.


Six players have started in the secondary this season. Seven have weaved in and out of a patchwork defensive line. The defense coach Frank Spaziani expected to send out at the start of the season has never seen the field, and in the Eagles’ five games, he’s had to go with five starting combinations.

The depth chart is a minefield of injuries, starting with the defensive line, which will be without linemen Kaleb Ramsey, Brian Mihalik and in all likelihood Dominic Appiah, who is listed as doubtful. Defensive back Spenser Rositano will also sit out with a head injury.

“The defense has had some Read more



Tags: College Football Boston College Eagles Florida State Seminoles ACC




College Football Betting Update: Nevada's Fajardo downgraded to doubtful

10.12.2012     01:23 PM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Nevada at UNLV

According to Sports Options, Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo has been downgraded to "doubtful" for Saturday's rivalry game against UNLV. Devin Combs would start in his place. Not one offshore sportsbook has posted a line on the game. In Vegas, it appears that the Wynn was willing to toss out a number, opening with Nevada -9.5 on Sunday night. Today we've seen the line drop from -8.5 to -7 as a result of Fajrado's status.





College Football Gambling: Nevada QB Fajardo remains questionable

10.10.2012     08:13 AM     Read more


Tags: College Football Nevada Wolf Pack UNLV Rebels Mountain West




College Football Handicapping: Teams use 3-3-5 defense in hopes of stopping spread

10.12.2012     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting article on college football teams switching to a 3-3-5 defense scheme. Rich Rodriguez used it at West Virginia and brought it with him to Arizona. UL-Monroe uses it as its base defense while Arizona State and Wisconsin will show it on occasion. With the right personnel, it can be an effective way of stopping spread offenses. But like most system changes, it takes a while to fully grasp. It also isn’t a good matchup against physical, power running teams.


“You can show people different looks,” said Strong, now the head coach at Louisville. “Because it’s a balanced defense, they don’t know where to attack you from and they don’t know where you’re attacking from.”

“You have to be intelligent because even though it makes it hard on the offense, it’s more complicated for us as a defense,” Wisconsin linebacker Chris Borland said. “You have to be keyed in to your assignments and your adjustments with what the offense shows.”





Tags: College Football




NCAAF Handicapping: Utah's defense has been exposed vs. PAC-12

10.12.2012     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Utah at UCLA -9 O/U 52

Utah braces from UCLA's spread offense. Utah ranks 36th nationally in total defense but in two PAC-12 contests, the Utes allowed 944 yards on nearly seven yards per play.


"There's a dramatic difference in scheme," said Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, who added that UCLA's offense is now more like that of Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon — a team that spread things out with a good tempo.

"We know we're better than that as a defense. We know that we can play better than that," Lotulelei said. "It's all up to us. Our coaches put us in the best positions that they can, we've got to be the ones who go out there and make the plays."






Tags: College Football Utah Utes UCLA Bruins PAC-12




College Football Gambling Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

10.12.2012     07:39 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tennessee at Mississippi State
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Mississippi State
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Mississippi State -2.5 O/U 53
CRIS Current: Mississippi State -3 O/U 57
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Mississippi State -4

Through five games, unbeaten Mississippi State has yet to be challenged but gets its biggest test of the season against Tennessee. The Bulldogs have beaten up on some weak teams this year; Kentucky, Auburn, South Alabama, Troy and Jackson State – none of which hold a candle to Tennessee offensively. MSU has forced 15 turnovers while committing just four, but that should be expected given the competition. They have been good but not great on offense, averaging just over 400 ypg despite playing two Sun Belt squads and FCS Jackson State.

The good news for Mississippi State is that Tennessee if far from a defensive juggernaut. The Vols’ Read more


Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers Mississippi State Bulldogs SEC Brent Crow




College Football Betting: Using ACCU-Stats in your weekly handicap

10.12.2012     06:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Around this time of year, Sportsmemo's ACCU-Stats become a big part of my handicapping arsenal. I won't make a bet or release a play to my clients without taking a peak at the matchup numbers. This week, I found three instances where I was interested in a particular side but the ACCU-Stats where not in my favor and I ended up passing. Let's take a look at what I discovered.

There are plenty of games each and every week where "spot/situation" wins out over "stats." And to me, Florida isn’t in the best of spots having to come up to Nashville to face Vanderbilt after defeating LSU. The strength of schedule for both teams is similar (Florida, 11th; Vanderbilt, 3rd) so I can put a bit more trust in the ACCU-Stats. As you can see, the Gators not only have an advantage in the run-game but a significant one. I'm not laying the -8.5 but those numbers kept me off the home underdog.

copy_uf_van.JPG

Basic math got me intrigued with this game. Stanford beat USC and went up to Seattle laying -7 and lost outright to Washington. The Trojans meanwhile are laying nearly two touchdowns. Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange



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