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Sportsmemo Handicapper Fairway Jay and clients enjoy another historic day
12.05.2011 06:22 AM
Printer Friendly
It was another day to remember when my clients and I went 12-1 on the Saturday college ootball and college basketball cards. We had a number of calls, comments and congratulations for the big day of winners. When a big selection card if filled with winners and the handicapping, research, analysis and selections pay off with profits, it’s always satisfying to see customers benefit from the winning results.
My service released seven college football plays and six college basketball plays Saturday – the biggest betting card of the year. Those involved were rewarded with a 12-1 result good for +12.3 units of profit.
Some comments came in mentioning the remembrance of my
10-0 NFL Sunday
back in September of 2009. We’ll continue to stay the course and hopefully provide continued success for the rest of 2011 and beyond.
Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in football handicapping and one of the industries insightful point spread prognosticators.
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NFL Handicapping: Week 13 Betting Angles and Trends
12.04.2011 08:15 AM
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Submitted by
Six teams play this week with extra rest and preparation coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Situations, trends and angles show that road favorites off those Thanksgiving Day games often play in higher scoring games. This situation supports an over the total trend that hits just over 70% with a sample size of nearly 50 games; applies to Baltimore (-6.5/38) at Cleveland, Dallas (-4/45.5) at Arizona and Green Bay (-6.5/52) at NY Giants. Be sure to check the weather in Cleveland (50 degrees, mild winds, 20% precipitation) and East Rutherford, NJ where the Packers try to remain undefeated.
The winless Colts (0-11) were pulled from the Sunday Night feature game. That saves them more embarrassment for now. Indianapolis cost us a 4-0 Sunday last week when they failed to punch in a touchdown from the 2-yard line late. With just two pointspread covers this season, the Colts are burying their betting backers. Knowing the public can’t stand betting on bad teams, less harm has probably been felt. Let’s see if the public has the balls to support them this week. The Colts have fit numerous positive technical situations the past four weeks, and now find themselves in another
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College Football Gambling Preview: Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears
12.02.2011 06:57 AM
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Submitted by
Texas
at
Baylor
-2.5 O/U 63.5
The Baylor Bears (8-3, 5-3 Big Xll) host the Texas Longhorns (7-4, 4-4) in the regular season finale for both teams Saturday. Texas enters off an upset win at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving, booting a last-second field goal to win 27-25 and kicking their rival A&M out of the Big Xll as the Aggies move to the SEC next season. A closer look at the box score shows Texas gained just 237 yards offense at 3.6 yards per play and benefitted from four A&M turnovers. Meanwhile, Baylor put a beating on Texas Tech last week 66-42 and the Bears have won four straight games and are now 6-0 SU/ATS at home. With over 600 yards offense including 79 running plays for 360 rushing yards last week, the Bears should be ready to run again this week versus the Longhorns.
Few
state rivalries
have been dominated by one side
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College Basketball Handicapping: Harvard could be Ivy League's best ever
12.01.2011 07:40 AM
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Harvard (6-0) upset Florida State 46-41 in last week’s Battle for Atlantis tournament, and emerged as the tournament champion. The Crimson are poised for a big season and are on the doorstep of cracking the top-25. Harvard’s defense is delivering dominating results thus far. In five games vs. DI opponents, Harvard is holding teams to 0.85 points per possession. Opposing offenses are making just 42 percent of their two-point shots with interior strength led by senior forward Keith Wright; last year’s Ivy League Player of the Year. Wright and Kyle Casey lead the team in scoring, rebounding and are both hitting over 59% of their shots inside the arc.
No Ivy League team has ever rated out higher than No. 52 in the country in Ken Pom’s college basketball ratings, and that includes the exceptional Cornell team from 2010 that made the Sweet Sixteen. Prior to those ratings, the Penn teams from the mid-90’s were some of the best ever in the Ivy League, but Harvard has the look of a team ready to win at least 25 games and win the Ivy League title with so many other conference teams suffering key injuries already this season.
Harvard plays at
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 12
11.30.2011 07:48 AM
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The top Week 12 offensive performances in victory included the Saints (577 yards, 8.4 yards per play), Patriots (477, 6.4), Redskins (416, 6.4) and Bengals (389, 6.0). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the 49ers (170, 3.1), Vikings (226, 4.3), Seahawks (250, 4.0), Chiefs (252, 4.0), Jaguars (255, 3.6), Rams (272, 4.9) and Browns (274, 4.2). The Redskins finally snapped a seven-game losing streak and rushed for 110 yards after running for 69, 61, 52, 26, 92 and 42 yards the previous six games.
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent cover the pointspread 77% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 35-5 SU and 32-7-1 ATS (82%). Being able to handicap and project which teams will have a meaningful rushing advantage (say, 30 or more yards) will lead you to more pointspread winners, as teams with that type of advantage cover the pointspread approximately 75% of the time historically, and 76% of the time thus far this season (I have a data base for over 10 years to prove it).
The Bears rushed for 172 yards to just 73 for the
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Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 12
11.29.2011 08:09 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 12 NFL favorites went 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 84-85-7 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Six division games in Week 12 and division underdogs went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS. Home underdogs went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 17-33 SU and 24-25-1 ATS. Scoring for the week averaged 41.5 ppg and totals went 7-9 O/U and are 84-90-2 O/U YTD. There have been 7,705
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Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 11
11.23.2011 08:26 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 11 NFL favorites went 10-4 straight up and 6-6-2 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 75-78-7 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Five division games in Week 11 and division underdogs went 2-3 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. Home underdogs went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 17-28 SU and 23-21-1 ATS. Totals went 6-8 over/under with an average game score of 43.85 ppg. Totals are now 77-81-2 O/U YTD. There have
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Fairway Jay: College Basketball betting and pointspread results
11.22.2011 07:01 AM
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We entered the week 8-2 in college basketball with a slew of tournaments upcoming this holiday weekend. Despite a fairly conservative approach, I can tell you with confidence that early season basketball is one of the best times of the year to be taking advantage of the betting lines and producing profit if you’ve done your homework and prepared your plan of attack.
So two weeks into the college basketball season and I thought I would update you on how the oddsmaker is doing in college basketball results in relation to the pointspread. This should further prove how early season college basketball can be so profitable if you’re prepared and have a plan to produce profit.
I spend many hours logging and tracking scores, stats and lines. After suffering a very unfortunate 1-point ATS loss with Long Beach State Saturday in its 71-67 overtime loss to San Diego State, I can tell you from by personal data that approximately 8-12% of college basketball games will fall within one point of the betting line. Two seasons ago just over 11% of the games fell within one point of the betting line (out of nearly 2,400 games before the late season conference
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College Basketball Handicapping: Gearing up for Thanksgiving tournament action
11.21.2011 09:05 AM
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We’re off to a sizzling 8-2 start in college basketball following Valparaiso’s 84-68 demolishing of Duquesne Sunday. The Crusaders were a 3-point home underdog as the host of the 2k Classic and money came in strong on Valpo prior to tip off. Strong support was also in favor of our top play Saturday as Long Beach State (+3) had an adjusted power rating line of at least three points following their big upset of Pittsburgh November 16th (a Big Drive winner for us). But we could have use an extra few points Saturday as we suffered a very tough loss when Long Beach State lost to San Diego State 71-67 in overtime. If you missed the final seconds of regulation and overtime, Long Beach was trailing by two points with three seconds remaining in regulation. The 49ers had the ball after a timeout planning their final possession and shot. Long Beach State planned a 3-point shot off a screen for premier point guard Casper Ware. But a San Diego State player committed an ill-advised foul on the screen as the ball was being put into play. Ware calmly made both free throws under pressure to send the game into overtime. Long Beach was already penalized by the officials when their top
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NFL Handicapping: Another view of rushing success and pointspread profit
11.21.2011 07:40 AM
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Every week I write a variety of articles and post blogs discussing and reviewing NFL information to better assist you in pursuit of profits. Some of my processes in becoming a winning pointspread prognosis professional are well documented. Success starts with fundamentals, preparation and production at the point of attack. I thought I would share some additional stats to hammer home the importance of controlling the line of scrimmage and having success running the ball and/or stopping the run.
As a refresher, teams that have a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent in a NFL game cover the pointspread approximately 75% of the time (I have a 10-year data base to support). And it’s even stronger when teams run the ball at least 30 times in a game.
So here is some additional evidence in support of a strong running game. In Week 11 NFL action (Monday pending), teams that rushed the ball 30 times or more went 7-0-1 ATS (yes, our top-play on Atlanta was the push). Teams that rushed the ball 20 times or less went 1-5-1 ATS (yes, Tennessee with 14 running plays was the push). Over the past four weeks, this simple profile has seen teams that run the
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