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NFL Preseason Gambling: Giants to play starters vs. Patriots

08.28.2013     07:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New York Giants at New England -1 O/U 39

Tom Coughlin said his starters will see 12-15 snaps during Thursday's Week 1 preseason game at New England.

“I’d like to see some continuity and some execution, some performance,” Coughlin said. “I’d like to see us get the ball in the end zone [and] see us do well on third down. I’d like to see our passing game with our protection look like some type of an efficient operation. … I’d like to see progress. That’s really what I would like to see.”

“We’ve got to play better,” Manning said. “We’ve got to do better in the red zone and converting third downs. There is room for improvement.”


Tags: NFL New York Giants New England Patriots

NFL Betting Alert: Bills to start Tuel Week1, bettors hammer Patriots

08.26.2013     10:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Well, this is a surprise. Buffalo plans on starting rookie quarterback Jeff Tuel in Week 1's game against New England. Needless to say, the betting markets have reacted. The Patriots are up to as high as -10.5 after opening -6.5 earlier this summer. Obviously Tuel doesn't have much of a pedigree, but there have been worse quarterbacks to start, win, and more importantly cover games in the NFL.

“Jeff has gotten most of the reps and you saw there are some things that we've got to do a better job getting him prepared for and he has to do a better job executing on the field,” Marrone said Saturday. “It is a concern and we knew that going in. I made that decision that we were going in with three quarterbacks knowing we had to get them all ready. And this is the situation that we're in and we have to deal with.”

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills New England Patriots

NFL Gambling News: Bettors react to preseason results

08.26.2013     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
With each team playing at least three preseason games, we're starting to see movement in the betting markets for Week 1 of the regular season. Let's check out some of the bigger line moves that have taken place over the last few weeks. Lines based on CRIS.

New England at Buffalo - The Patriots opened -6.5 and were bet up to -7. Following injuries to EJ Manuel (probable for Week 1) and Kevin Kolb (out indefinitely) a flood of money came in on New England; now -9.5.

Minnesota at Detroit - The Lions opened -3 way back in late May and were quickly bet up to -3.5 where is stood for most of the summer. The Vikings haven't look very good this preseason (0-3 SU/ATS) and as a result the Lions are now 4.5-point home favorites.

Oakland at Indianapolis - Like Minnesota, Oakland had its struggled this preseason (1-2 SU/ATS). Prior to Week 1 of the preseason the Colts moved from -6.5 to -7. Two weeks later they went to -7.5 and are now -8 (or -9.5-plus money teaser line). 

Houston at San Diego - The Chargers may have won and covered last week's game against Arizona (24-7) but it Read more

Tags: NFL

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Patriots, Ravens Stunned to Learn Dress Rehearsals Were Thursday!

08.23.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It would have been bad enough if crappy teams from last year were playing like this. But, the first team offenses for the two teams who played in the AFC Championship Game last year had absolute debacles playing what was supposed to be “real” football Thursday night.

*The New England Patriots committed FOUR turnovers in the first half, and went 1 of 7 on third downs on their way to a 16-3 halftime deficit in Detroit. The score would have been worse, but the Lions were having their own issues…going 2 of 9 on third downs and missing a field goal try.

*The defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens turned the ball over THREE times in the first half. Two of those were returned for touchdowns. Baltimore’s special teams also allowed a punt return TD to the Carolina Panthers. The halftime score was 24-7, with 21 of Carolina’s points coming on those non-offensive scores.
Not a great way for these AFC powers to set the tone for Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Defenses That "Force" Sloppiness

08.22.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here now, the companion piece to yesterday’s article on sloppiness. These are the defenses that most (or least) encouraged sloppiness from their opposing offenses last season. The formula in this case is 5 times takeaways…plus the number of opponents’ incomplete passes.

Defenses That Forced Sloppiness in 2012

Chicago 28.9

New England 26.9

Houston 26.1

Washington 24.9

Seattle 24.5

Arizona 23.9

How about Lovie Smith! Give the man credit for coaching defense (and knowing how to exploit poor home turf and bad late season weather!).

Some of what gets credited as “forced sloppiness” by top contenders is simply the fact that opponents are constantly playing catch up. New England’s defense does benefit from panic attacks other teams have in shootouts. The Patriots play much softer vs. quality. They were third worst Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Detroit looking for offensive spark vs. New England

08.21.2013     11:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at Detroit -2.5 O/U 46

Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz is taking a wait-and-see approach to Thursday's preseason tilt against New England. It is indicated that the starters will play at least a half. There does seem to be a little extra emphasis on getting the offense going after last week’s dismal showing (6 points) vs. Cleveland.

"We play 'em as much as we think they need to be played," coach Jim Schwartz said. "It depends. There have been times where we say, 'Hey, we're going to take it into the half, and then you got 50 snaps in the first half on offense.' There are other times you say you're going to shut them down after a half, and maybe you only play 20 snaps and that's not enough.

"We'll just play

Read more

Tags: NFL Detroit Lions New England Patriots

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saints and Patriots win and cover

08.17.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Taking the games in market rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Buffalo 20 (-4), Minnesota 16

Total Yardage: Minnesota 256, Buffalo 380

Passing Stats: Minnesota 19-37-0-151, Buffalo 25-36-1-207

Turnovers: Minnesota 1, Buffalo 1

Drive Points: Minnesota 16, Buffalo 7

Stat Score: Minnesota 16, Buffalo 25

A few quick notes from an odd game:

*Kevin Kolb of Buffalo played the whole first half for Buffalo. He put up some yardage…but the offense only scored two field goals with him at the helm. They had a defensive touchdown to give them a 13-3 lead at the half. Kolb was Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Recap: Browns and Eagles win and cover, Falcons and Chargers cash as dogs

08.16.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run some numbers from Thursday's four-game slate. We’ll take the matchups in rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Cleveland 24 (-1.5), Detroit 6

Total Yardage: Detroit 226, Cleveland 321

Passing Stats: Detroit 26-38-0-175, Cleveland 21-29-0-242

Turnovers: Detroit 0, Cleveland 0

Drive Points: Detroit 3, Cleveland 14

Stat Score: Detroit 12, Cleveland 18

Cleveland has a quarterback war, and a new coach who wants immediate results…which is often a great recipe for preseason success. Well, maybe not for the first half of the dress rehearsal game (next week at Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Gambling: Brady injures knee but could play Friday vs. Tampa Bay

08.15.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tampa Bay at New England -3 O/U 40

New England's Tom Brady went down with an apparent knee injury during yesterday's practice but the team downplayed the incident and claims that Brady could play during Friday's game against Tampa Bay. The Patriots opened 3.5-point favorites but after Brady left practice most sportsbooks took the game off the board. The Pats are currently -3 (even)/-2.5 (-120).

"He basically got kicked," a source said. "It isn't like his knee collapsed or somebody rolled up on him. Is there a chance he could be sore and they decide to hold him out of practice? Yeah. Could they decide he shouldn't play in the game? Probably. But they could also decide it's just soreness and he needs to work it out. It's really nothing."

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Friday Night's Results and Stats

08.10.2013     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Just like last night, let’s crunch some numbers in market rotation order. If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15.

Miami 27, Jacksonville 3

Total Yardage: Miami 267, Jacksonville 289

Passing Stats: Miami 15-26-1-161, Jacksonville 23-42-2-163

Turnovers: Miami 1, Jacksonville 4

Drive Points: Miami 7, Jacksonville 3

Stat Score: Miami 17, Jacksonville 19

Very important to pay attention to the numbers here. If you were scoreboard watching all night, you probably assumed Miami was playing much sharper because of their one-week head start. They seemed to be in command the whole way, and won a blowout. But, the offense Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence


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