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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines

05.13.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.

Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Basketball Handicapping: Hybrid Power Ratings

03.13.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Updated these today. If you’re new to the blog….what you see below are a combination of:

*The team’s average margin in conference play ONLY

*Adjusted for conference strength based on Jeff Sagarin’s conference ratings (scroll way down)

Sagarin has the Big 10 as the best conference in the nation. So, I just used the normal margin averages for Big 10 teams. For the other teams:

Big East: margin average -1.5

Big 12: margin average -2.4

ACC: margin average -3.5

Mountain West: margin average -3.8

Pac 12: margin average -4.2

SEC: margin average -4.5

Atlantic 10: margin average -5.9

Missouri Valley: margin average -7.7

West Coast: margin average -9.2

Conference USA: margin average -10.3

Horizon: margin average -11.8

Metro-Atlantic: margin average -12.1

Colonial: margin average -13.5

Sun Belt: margin -15.1

Ohio Read more

Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence

NCAA Basketball Gambling: Indiana, Florida, and Memphis all falter on the road

02.27.2013     07:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

March has its Madness. Late February college basketball doesn’t have anything to get excited about beyond the fact that it’s a “Prelude to March Madness.” As a result, this stretch of calendar historically has seen many subpar efforts from college powers. The kids can’t concentrate on their homework because Christmas is coming.

Tonight, the top two computer teams in the Jeff Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy rankings both lost outright as road favorites. One guy has Indiana #1 and Florida #2, the other has it the other way. Our estimate of market Power Ratings also had those teams as the top two last time we looked. Tonight’s boxscores from Minnesota and Tennessee show the visiting powers were linked up in “lack of focus” categories as well…

Two-Point Defense

Indiana allowed 53% inside the arc, Florida allowed 49%


Indiana was -13 in rebound differential, Florida was -11

Forced Read more

Tags: College Basketball Indiana Hoosiers Florida Gators Memphis Tiigers Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Gambling: Top ranked Indiana melts down at Illinois

02.08.2013     12:17 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Number one Indiana trailed for a fraction of a second in the second half Thursday night in its Big Ten road game against Illinois in Champaign-Urbana. It was the fraction of a second that mattered most…as Illinois hit a shot just before the buzzer to make it FIVE STRAIGHT WEEKS where the top team in the AP poll was knocked off its perch.

Illinois 74, #1 Indiana 72

2-Point Percentage: Indiana 48%, Illinois 50%

3-Point Shooting: Indiana 9/17, Illinois 9/24

Free Throws: Indiana 13/14, Illinois 13/15

1’s and 2’s: Indiana 45, Illinois 47

Rebounds: Indiana 28, Illinois 21

Turnovers: Indiana 14, Illinois 9

(Indiana 2-1 in Kenpom/Sagarin respectively, Illinois 56-51)

We talked about Indiana’s penchant for sloppiness in our coverage of the Michigan game last weekend. That was an issue here…as the team was -5 in the turnover category against an opponent that was second best Read more

Tags: College Basketball Illinois Fighting Illini Indiana Hoosiers Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31...Ravens Win Super Bowl XLVII

02.04.2013     06:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Congratulations to all who won last night. Sincere condolences to all who lost (unless you did so with arrogant posturing through the week, then you got what you deserved!). Let’s crunch the numbers…

Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31

Total Yardage: Baltimore 367, San Francisco 468

Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.2, San Francisco 7.8

Rushing Yards: Baltimore 93, San Francisco 182

Passing Line: Baltimore 22-33-0-274, San Francisco 16-28-1-286

Turnovers: Baltimore 1, San Francisco 2

Third Downs: Baltimore 56%, San Francisco 22%

Sloppiness: Baltimore 16, San Francisco 22

Drive Points: Baltimore 10, San Francisco 13

Cheap Points: Baltimore 24, San Francisco 18

(If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more….sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes).

Some Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence

Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Joe Flacco pass attempts

01.29.2013     02:10 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Joe Flacco Pass Attempts
Recommendation: Over 33.5 (-150 @ 5Dimes)

My thinking behind this prop is fairly straightforward. I don’t see the Ravens being able to get their running game going against the staunch 49ers defensive front. Baltimore running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were held in check by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship with just 100 rushing yards. New England had the 9th ranked run defense in the NFL this season. San Francisco has the 4th ranked run defense allowing a paltry 94.2 yards per game. I don’t anticipate seeing a lot of success running the football for Baltimore once again this week and that will force Joe Flacco into passing situations early and often if the Ravens are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board.

Flacco’s pass attempts skyrocketed upward in Baltimore’s last two playoff games. He threw the football 34 times against Denver despite the Ravens run game working well that day and he threw the football 36 times against New England. Part of it was because the run game didn’t work against the Patriots but also because Flacco is playing Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Ian Cameron

Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense

01.25.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:

The Harbaugh brother angle

Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia

Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status

Ray Lewis’s retirement

Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.

Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes

I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Drive Points and Power Ratings for Super Bowl XLVII

01.21.2013     01:41 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, we’re back to look at the drive point numbers for the two remaining teams in the NFL brackets. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. We’ve been using it through the regular season to try and get a read as best as possible on “true” offense and defense.

First, a reminder of the regular season averages for the Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.

Regular Season Averages

San Francisco: 15.4 on offense, 11.6 on defense (#3 Sagarin schedule)

Baltimore: 15.7 on offense, 12.5 on defense (#18 Sagarin schedule)

The Niners get the nod in regular season numbers, with +3.8 vs. a killer schedule being better than +3.2 vs. what was roughly an average schedule. Is strength of schedule enough to bump them up to superiority by more than a field goal at a neutral site? Interesting that teams coached by brothers had such similar Read more

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence


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