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College Basketball Betting: Analyzing close pointspread results Part II

01.19.2012     06:53 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Continuing our analysis of close pointspread results, there has been over 500 games thus far in January, and 40% of the games landed within five points of the betting line and 10% within one point of the line. If fact, 16 of the 18 games January 16-17 landed within five points of the betting line, and last Saturday it was a remarkable 48 of 99 games! As previously mentioned, regardless of your level of handicapping ability, long term results of these close ATS games should produce close to 50% ATS winners and losers. Yet we’ve been suffering though many close losses in January, now 7-16 on those close contests. We’ll continue to evaluate the results, stats and match-ups, and work to become even more proficient in pointspread prognosis in our never ending pursuit of profit. With that, the unfortunate results and negative random variance should subside.

Despite a solid base using good power ratings and adjusting those during the season, there is so much more to the puzzle and preparing your pointspread Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

College Basketball Betting: Pittsburgh defense has been historically bad

01.11.2012     05:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Rutgers at Pittsburgh -8.5 O/U 133.5

Article on how poor Pittsburgh's defense has been compared to previous editions under Jamie Dixon. Under Dixon, the Panthers went eight years allowing between 0.84-0.93 points per possession (see chart below). This year, they are currently giving up 1.01 ppp (194th nationally).

"We don't guard the dribble real well," Dixon said afterward when asked to pinpoint his team's defensive deficiencies. "We don't keep it in front. Some of our turnovers lead to layups, which gives them a higher field-goal percentage. We just don't seem to guard the penetration well. There are some other things, but that's the main thing."


Tags: College Football Pittsburgh Panthers Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Musburger talks sports betting, lost a bet on last night's OVER

01.10.2012     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Brent Musburger loves to talk about sports betting and its place in football culture. Looks as if he was on the OVER in last night's BCS Championship. That didn't work out so well. You are an announcer who mentions the point spread more than most others. Why is that?

Musburger: Because it is an especially big part of football in this country, and I think there are a lot of people that are interested. For example, I was in Las Vegas recently and I made it a point to go to a sports book to ask about this game. They told me the first game had the most money wagered on it of any college football game this year, and they expected this one will exceed that but it would be late action....I think [sports betting] should have been legalized and taxed. One of the first things people ask about a football game is: Who's favored? And by how much? I know coaches who will look at the point spread and then in a staff meeting say, "What do these guys know that we don't?" It is a big part of the success of football in this society. I Read more

Tags: College Football

BCS Championship Prop Bet: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers

01.09.2012     02:00 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
BCS Championship Prop Bet
LSU's Jordan Jefferson OVER 139.5 Passing Yards

The reasoning for this play is pretty fundamental – Jarrett Lee was handed a very conservative game plan in Round 1 and expect that with time to prepare, Les Miles and the offensive staff will utilize the airwaves a little more with Jefferson. LSU has to use the screen, mid-range and vertical passing games in order to back Alabama off of the line of scrimmage where they will be stacking the box to stuff the run. Last but not least, the venue would seem to help this play. In Tuscaloosa in front of nearly 102,000 Alabama fans (a handful of those could've been Tigers supporters) it makes sense to go conservative with a sometimes erratic Lee at the helm. In the Superdome tonight however, expect the friendlier confines to convince Miles to be a bit more aggressive on the offensive side. Good Luck to everyone tonight in your BCS Championship wagers.

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers Alabama Crimson Tide Rob Veno

Newt Gingrich is a funny man, claims he would bet 10 dimes on LSU

01.09.2012     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
Typical politician. Newt Gingrich took the easiest possible way out when he was asked who he liked in tonight's BCS Championship – because taking a strong position on something as serious as who will win a football game is clearly too risky at this point in the campaign. It is when you get into Rick Perry Territory that you need to start chucking poop at the wall with the hopes some of it will stick. Anyway, Gingrich spent some time living in Columbus, Georgia (right on the Alabama border) and says his heart is with Alabama but if he had to make a bet, it would $10,000 on LSU (OOOOOHHHHH, he got you Mitt Romney!). Newt also liked the over, so play accordingly.

“I have to confess, while I think LSU is a very, very good team. I think it will be a much higher scoring game, my personal feelings, if I were betting $10,000 I would bet on LSU but my heart belongs to Alabama,” he said, in a sly reference to Mitt Romney’s offer to Read more

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers Alabama Crimson Tide

Last second gambling notes for Alabama vs. LSU - BCS Championship

01.09.2012     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
BCS Championship
Alabama vs. LSU
Monday, 5:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: LSU -1 O/U 39
CRIS Current: Alabama -2 O/U 40.5
Teddy Covers Power Rating: LSU -1
Rob Veno Power Rating: LSU -1

Line History: LSU opened as a 1-point favorite at CRIS and climbed to as high as -2. Money then began to trickle in on Alabama over the next few weeks. Currently, the Crimson Tide are -2/-2.5 off shore and -1.5/-2 in Las Vegas. The total has settled in at 40/40.5. Line history below courtesy of Read more

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers Alabama Crimson Tide

College Football Gambling: Alabama now priced as a 2-point favorite over LSU

01.07.2012     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers weigh in on the upcoming BCS National Championship between Alabama and LSU. LSU opened a 1-point favorite but Alabama has taken a steady stream of money and is now favored by -2 at most offshore shops. The total remains at 40 with a couple 40.5's starting to pop up.

“I think Alabama is the better team,” said Mike Colbert, Cantor sports book director. “But LSU, after watching them all year, it’s hard to believe they are the underdog. I think they’ll be prepared, but Bama is slightly better across the board — better coach, bigger, stronger and they have a better quarterback.”

“Up until around Christmas time, we had three times the amount of money on Alabama,” said Jason McCormick, sports book director at Red Rock Resort. “Since we moved the line, wagering has basically stayed the same. We are getting good two-way action.”

“I think it’s a few points too low,” Colbert said. “I think this game will go over the 40. I think Read more

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers Alabama Crimson Tide SEC

Bettors treated to the old 6-on-5 during UL-Lafayette-Western Kentucky game

01.06.2012     05:54 AM     Printer Friendly
From watching the video, it didn't really matter, but how do you not notice six players on the floor if you are a ref/coach/player/fan/announcer/ball boy? In football, it always feels like there are two small armies running around but if a 12th man even thinks about stepping in the field, yellow flags are flying. Anyway, people started catching on after the the game was called final. And of course the 72-70 final (in OT) was right around the closing betting line. According to CRIS, ULL opened -2.5, was bet up to -3 but money came in on WKU and the line dropped to a pick 'em. Lafayette eventually closed as a 1.5-point favorite.



Tags: College Basketball UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Compass Bowl Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

01.04.2012     12:47 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports


Compass Bowl
SMU vs. Pittsburgh
Saturday, 10 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Pittsburgh -5.5 O/U 48.5
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -3 O/U 47
Teddy Covers Power Rating: Pittsburgh -6

Marty Otto's Betting Take: We can talk about the mess Todd Graham created this season by trying to force his offense on players that didn’t look comfortable in the system. We can talk about the mess Graham left behind when he let his team know via text message that he was leaving for Arizona State. We can also talk about the fact that SMU’s coach June Jones was on the verge of being hired by Arizona State just days prior to Graham and that he lied to his team about it. We can talk about a whole host of off-field issues that surround this game and each of them is ugly.

But we want to get to the game at hand; who’s motivated and who’s talented enough Read more

Tags: College Football Pittsburgh Panthers MSU Mustangs Otto Sports

Orange Bowl Betting Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers

01.03.2012     02:30 PM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports


Orange Bowl
West Virginia vs. Clemson
Wednesday, 5:30 pm – ESPN
CRIS Opener: Clemson pk O/U 60
CRIS Closer: Clemson -2.5 O/U 61.5
Rob Veno Power Rating: Clemson -3.5

Erin Rynning’s Betting Take: The new era of big time college football will be on display in this year’s Orange Bowl with complex, high octane, quick paced offenses.  West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen was known for the offensive attacks he’s assembled at Oklahoma State, Houston and Texas Tech.  The change for West Virginia was radical but they managed set school records across the board in the passing game led by junior quarterback Geno Smith.  Smith launched almost 500 passes, while completing 65% for just under 4,000 yards and a 25/7 TD-to-INT ratio.  The Mountaineers threw the ball 61% of the time and dangerous wide Read more

Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers West Virginia Mountaineers Erin Rynning


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