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NCAAF Handicapping: Another slow start for Oregon State?
08.09.2011 08:01 AM
Printer Friendly
Under Mike Riley,
Oregon State
has been notorious for slow starts and strong finishes (see chart below). That trend could continue as Riley has stated that this year's edition has a
ton of unknowns
. The Beavers open up with Sacramento State and then travel to Wisconsin. They have a bye week before opening PAC-12 play with UCLA at home, Arizona State on the road and Arizona at home.
“I’ve never had it like this,’’ said Riley. “There’s some mystery surrounding a lot of players.’’
“Every camp is important, but part of this one is just finding out where guys are,’’ said Riley, who is six wins away from becoming the winningest football coach in the program’s history.
Oregon State Betting Results Under Mike Riley 2003-10
Year
1st 4 Games SU
1st 4 Games ATS
Remainder SU
Remainder ATS
2010
2-2
2-1-1
3-5
4-4
2009
2-2
0-4
6-3
7-2
2008
2-2
2-2
7-2
7-2
2007
2-2
2-2
7-2
7-2
2006
2-2
1-2
8-2
6-4
2005
2-2
0-2-1
3-4
3-4
2004
1-3
1-3
6-2
7-1
2003
3-1
0-3
5-4
6-3
Results
16-16
8-18-2
45-24
47-22
Tags:
College Football
Oregon State Beavers
PAC-12
Mike Riley
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Boston College offense ready to rebound in 2011
08.09.2011 07:38 AM
Printer Friendly
Northwestern at Boston College -3
Boston College
has named
Chase Rettig its starting quarterback
for Week 1's contest against
Northwestern
. Rettig had a rough go of it as a freshman with just 51.3% competitions, 6 TDs and 9 INTs. He was however under center during BC's late season five-game winning streak and the team was 6-3 ATS with him under center. With a year of experience under his belt, Boston College's offense should improve after averaging only 18.5 ppg last season. The Eagles return nine offensive starters and hired Kevin Rogers to serve as offensive coordinator. Rogers spent the last five years as a QB coach in the NFL and was also an assistant at Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and
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Tags:
College Football
Boston College Eagles
Northwestern Wildcats
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NCAAF Handicapping: Week 1 analysis based on last year's lines
08.08.2011 11:43 AM
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A good way to judge some of the betting market’s initial feelings is to compare the lines from last year's meetings (see chart below). From a generic standpoint, the switch in venue subtracts/adds six points – obviously some home fields are worth more or less than others. Some of the more intriguing differences include
Colorado
who won and covered as a 13.5-point home favorite over
Hawaii
but finds itself a 6-point road underdog (some opening lines were +7, +7.5 and +8) in Honolulu.
TCU
steamrolled
Baylor
in Fort Worth as three touchdown favorites but the betting market doesn’t see as big a gap this edition with the Horned Frogs -6.5/-7 in Waco.
Texas
was a 31-point favorite in Houston (Reliant Stadium) for last year’s meeting against
Rice
. Off a dismal 5-7 campaign, the Longhorns are a more modest 22-point favorite in Austin.
Colorado State
cruised to a 38-14 win as 16-point home chalk against woeful
New Mexico
but the Rams are now just a -4/-4/5 point favorite in Albuquerque.
College Football 2010 vs. 2011 Matchups and Line History
Game #
Away
Home
Last Year Line
Last Year Score
132
UNLV
Wisconsin -35
Wisconsin -20
UW 41 at UNLV 21
134
Mississippi State -27.5
Memphis
Mississippi State -21
MEM 7 at MSU 49
140
North Texas
Florida Intl -14
Florida Intl -5
FIU 34 at NT 10
142
Kentucky -19
Western Kentucky*
Kentucky -24.5
WKU 28 at UK 63
146
TCU -7
Baylor
TCU -21
BAY 10 at TCU 45
154
Miami (OH)
Missouri -16
Missouri -20
MOH 13 at MIZ 51
158
UCLA
Houston -3.5
Houston -3.5
HOU 13 at UCLA 31
162
Minnesota
USC -21
USC -11.5
USC 32 at MIN 21
170
Colorado State -4.5
New Mexico
Colorado State -16
UNM 14 at CSU 38
180
Rice
Texas -22
Texas -31
TEX 34 vs. RICE 17
192
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss -13.5
Southern Miss -3.5
USM 13 at LT 12
194
Colorado
Hawaii -6
Colorado -13.5
HAW 13 at COL 31
205
UL Lafayette
Oklahoma State -36.5
Oklahoma State -24
OSU 54 at ULL 28
208
Marshall
West Virginia -20.5
West Virginia -12
WVU 24 at MAR 21 OT
212
Miami (FL) -5.5
Maryland
Miami -8.5
MAR 20 at MIA 26
Tags:
College Football
Colorado Buffaloes
Hawaii Warriors
Texas Longhorns
Rice Owls
New Mexico Lobos
Colorado State Rams
TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor Bears
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NCAAF Handicapping: Week 1 Line Moves - 5Dimes
08.08.2011 06:33 AM
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As to be expected, there were some significant lines moves in the college football betting markets over the weekend. 5Dimes and The Greek were the first to offer numbers last Friday. CRIS and Pinnacle followed suit as did various Las Vegas sportsbooks. Some of the big movers included
Northwestern
going from +7.5 to +3 at
Boston College
.
South Carolina
was steamed up from -15 to -20 for its neutral site game against
East Carolina
. And
Oregon
took heavy action for its matchup against
LSU
in Arlington, Texas. Below is a list of major moves based on 5Dimes' openers and current numbers.
College Football Week 1 Line Moves 8/8 - 5Dimes
Game #
Away
Home
5Dimes Opener
5Dimes Current
132
UNLV
Wisconsin
Wisconsin -32.5
Wisconsin -35
134
Mississippi State
Memphis
Mississippi State -24
Mississippi State -27.5
140
North Texas
Florida Intl
Florida Intl -12.5
Florida Intl -14
146
TCU
Baylor
TCU -9
TCU -7
148
Northwestern
Boston College
Boston College -7.5
Boston College -3
150
Utah State
Auburn
Auburn -28
Auburn -22
154
Miami (OH)
Missouri
Missouri -19
Missouri -16
156
Kent State
Alabama
Alabama -32.5
Alabama -35.5
164
South Florida
Notre Dame
Notre Dame -8.5
Notre Dame -10.5
166
BYU
Ole Miss
BYU -1
BYU -2.5
172
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -26
Pittsburgh -29.5
174
South Carolina
East Carolina*
South Carolina -15
South Carolina -20
176
Fresno State
California*
California -6
California -10
178
Army
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois -13
Northern Illinois -9
184
Tulsa
Oklahoma
Oklahoma -22.5
Oklahoma -20
186
Ohio
New Mexico State
Ohio -10.5
Ohio -7
188
Boise State
Georgia*
Boise State -2.5
Boise State -3
190
Oregon
LSU
LSU -2.5
Oregon -1
194
Colorado
Hawaii
Hawaii -8.5
Hawaii -6
Tags:
College Football
South Carolina Gamecocks
Boston College Eagles
East Carolina Pirates
Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Ducks
LSU Tigers
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NCAAF Handicapping: Thoughts on Week 1 opening lines
08.05.2011 01:52 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
With
college football opening week lines
posted earlier today, here are some extremely early thoughts on a couple games for Week 1.I’ll also list my power ratings line on each game as it stands now heading into fall camp. Once practices conclude, I’ll incorporate additional information gained over the next 15-17 days and post my own personal
Week #1 power ratings
lines for all to see at sportsmemo.com.
North Texas
at
Florida International
-12.5 at 5Dimes, -11.5 at The Greek
FIU HC Mario Cristobal parlayed last season’s success into a new five-year contract a few days ago. Expectations are high for the Golden Panthers who were
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Tags:
College Football
Florida International Panthers
North Texas Mean Green
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
South Florida Bulls
Rob Veno
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NCAAF Betting Stock Watch: Indiana head coach appears focused on future
08.05.2011 01:33 PM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Sell the Indiana Hoosiers
– There’s a new sheriff in town as
Indiana
prepares for its first year under head coach Kevin Wilson. This will be Wilson’s first head coaching job after serving as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma since 2002. It’s paramount that whenever a new coach takes over a program that we as bettors decipher whether there is a “win now” philosophy in place or more of a long term focus with the commonly used three-year plan. The feeling I get from Wilson is that he’s pointing to success down the road. When he arrived in Bloomington he basically called the current roster fat, soft and a bunch of losers! No question Wilson understands that with the current level of talent he’ll have a difficult time winning on a consistent basis. In fact, he refused to watch any game tape of past Indiana games. This is obviously going to be a tough situation especially coming from
Read more
Tags:
College Football
Indiana Hoosiers
Big Ten
Kevin Wilson
Erin Rynning
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College Football Week 1 Odds - Greek & 5Dimes
08.05.2011 12:13 PM
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College Football Week 1 lines are here! The Greek and 5Dimes were kind enough to offer the betting market their initial opinions. Some lines have already moved, most notably:
Northwestern
+7.5 to +6 at
Boston College
and
Notre Dame
-8 to -10 vs.
South Florida
.
* - Neutral site
2011 College Football Week 1 Lines - Greek & 5Dimes
Game #
Away
Home
5Dimes
Greek
132
UNLV
Wisconsin
Wisconsin -32.5
Wisconsin -32
134
Mississippi State
Memphis
Mississippi State -25.5
Mississippi State -24.5
136
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Syracuse -6.5
Syracuse -5.5
138
Bowling Green
Idaho
Idaho -8.5
Idaho -8
140
North Texas
Florida Intl
Florida Intl -12.5
Florida -11.5
142
Kentucky
Western Kentucky*
Kentucky -18
Kentucky -17.5
146
TCU
Baylor
TCU -9
TCU -9
148
Northwestern
Boston College
Boston College -6
Boston College -6
150
Utah State
Auburn
Auburn -26
Auburn -24.5
152
Akron
Ohio State
Ohio State -33.5
Ohio State -34
154
Miami (OH)
Missouri
Missouri -18.5
Missouri -19
156
Kent State
Alabama
Alabama -33.5
Alabama -34
158
UCLA
Houston
Houston -4.5
Houston -5
160
Western Michigan
Michigan
N/L
N/L
162
Minnesota
USC
USC -19
USC -17.5
164
South Florida
Notre Dame
Notre Dame -8.5
Notre Dame -10
166
BYU
Ole Miss
BYU -1
BYU -1
168
San Jose State
Stanford
Stanford -28
Stanford -28
170
Colorado State
New Mexico
Colorado State -3.5
Colorado State -3.5
172
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -26
Pittsburgh -25
174
South Carolina
East Carolina*
South Carolina -15.5
South Carolina -17
176
Fresno State
California*
California -6.6
California -6
178
Army
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois -12.5
Northern Illinois -13
180
Rice
Texas
Texas -22.5
Texas -22
182
Indiana
Ball State*
Indiana -6
Indiana -6
184
Tulsa
Oklahoma
Oklahoma -22.5
Oklahoma -23
186
Ohio
New Mexico State
Ohio -10
Ohio -10
188
Boise State
Georgia*
Boise State -2.5
Boise State -1.5
190
Oregon
LSU
LSU -3
LSU -3
192
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss
Southern Miss -11.5
Southern Miss -11
194
Colorado
Hawaii
Hawaii -7
Hawaii -7
208
Marshall
West Virginia
West Virginia -19.5
West Virginia -20
210
SMU
Texas A&M
Texas A&M -14
Texas A&M -14
212
Miami (FL)
Maryland
Miami (FL) -4
Miami (FL) -4.5
Tags:
College Football
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Rutgers tweaks offense to help out o-line
08.05.2011 07:45 AM
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UPDATE
Update on the
Rutgers
offensive line situation. After allowing an NCAA record 61 sacks, the
offense has been tweaked
and is reportedly more "offensive line friendly". More emphasis has been placed on the running and quick-hitter passing games.
"It has eaten at us a lot,'' right tackle Desmond said Stapleton this afternoon as players reported to preseason camp. "We're just tired of hearing it. We have to work hard to get away from it. We have to prove ourselves.''
The new offense "is very offensive line friendly," Stapleton said."Also, it just comes down to us doing our job. Sometimes it's not always the scheme. We just
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Tags:
College Football Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Big East
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Arkansas State poised for more offense in 2011
08.05.2011 07:12 AM
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Arkansas State
first-year head coach Hugh Freeze is
looking for even more offense
after the Red Wolves set nine schools record with Freeze as offensive coordinator last season. Overall, ASU increased its scoring average by over a touchdown and return all of their top skill position talent for 2011. The pace and points once again project to be there but concerns remain about the stop unit as last season saw a massive drop in production (30.8 ppg, 436 ypg allowed). This has the looks of a dead-nuts "over" squad so long as the betting market cooperates (7-5 O/U in 2010).
"I was very disappointed that we did not put up more points last year,” Freeze told ArkansasVarsity.com. One thing that we are taking focus on is our offensive line, and having the ability to run the
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Tags:
College Football
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Hugh Freeze
Sun Belt
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NCAAF Betting Preview: Look for Oregon State to regain ATS prowess
08.04.2011 01:33 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
For the better part of the last decade, the
Oregon State
Beavers were the single easiest PAC-10 team to project. Every year, Mike Riley’s squad would start slow; suffering a bad loss or two in September against some very tough competition and the betting markets would overreact to those early season failures. Following that however the team would improve by leaps and bounds down the stretch and become a pointspread monster by November. This pattern was remarkably consistent – a losing ATS record in their first five games followed by a winning ATS mark in their last five games.
That pattern was finally broken last year, when the Beavers failed to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2005 – although Oregon State still finished at .500 ATS despite a run of failure (1-4 SU and ATS) to close out the season. Let’s not forget that this program has a grand total of one losing season against the pointspread
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Tags:
College Football
Oregon State Beavers
PAC-12
Mike Riley
Teddy Covers
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