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NCAAF Handicapping: UConn faces offensive issues under Pasqualoni
06.23.2011 08:32 AM
Printer Friendly
Former Syracuse head coach
Paul Pasqualoni begins in first year
at UConn after Huskies won the Big East and reached a BCS bowl under long-time head coach Randy Edsall. The biggest issue for Pasqualoni will be the offense with only five returning starters. The Huskies lost running back Jordan Todman (1,695 yards) to the NFL and leading receiver Michael Smith (615 yards) was recently ruled ineligible. The quarterback situation is dicey with the graduation of Zach Frazer and departure of Cody Endres. UConn will have to decide between four candidates: Michael Nebrich, Michael Box, Scott McCummings and Johnny McEntee. Box was the only one in the group to play last season (17 attempts). The Golden Nugget posted odds on two of UConn's games (+13.5 at West Virginia and +10 at Pittsburgh). Those lines are not too far removed from last year as the Huskies closed +6 against WVU and +4.5 against Pitt in Storrs –
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Tags:
College Football
UConn Huskies
Paul Pasqualoni
Big East
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NCAAF Handicapping: Purdue set to rebound after injury-plagued 2010
06.23.2011 05:40 AM
Printer Friendly
Update on the Purdue Boilermakers who
look to rebound
after a slew of key injuries last season. With running back Ralph Bolden, wide receiver Keith Smith and quarterback Roberty Marve out, the Boilermakers were left with what head coach Danny Hope called, "no skill". This year's edition returns 18 starters and expects to improve on both sides of the football. During Wednesday's
College Football roundtable discussion
in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum, handicapper Rob Veno listed Purdue as a potential "earner" if they can remain healthy. The Boilers could get out to a strong start with four home games and a bye week the first six weeks of the season.
"We just ran out of skill," Hope said during the John
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Tags:
College Football
Purdue Boilermakers
Danny Hope
Big Ten
Rob Veno
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College Football Handicapper roundtable discussion
06.22.2011 02:10 PM
Printer Friendly
Today in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum we featured a College Football roundtable discussion on the upcoming 2011 season. The focus was on "earners" (teams with the potential for ATS success) and "burners" (teams destine for ATS failure). The chat included analysis from the Sportsmemo Handicappers as well as our posting forum faithful.
Here's a quick list of "earners" and "burners" from the Sportsmemo Crew:
Teddy Covers
Stanford - Burner
Arizona State - Earner
Colorado State - Earner
Marty Otto
Wisconsin - Burner
SMU - Earner
Rob Veno
Virginia - Earner
Nevada - Burner
Purdue - Earner
Andrew Lange
Oklahoma State - Burner
Minnesota - Earner
Here's a link to the thread
. We'll be conducting these forum
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Tags:
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NCAAF Betting: Louisville faced with tough schedule, lack of experience
06.22.2011 07:03 AM
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Could be tough sledding for Louisville in 2011 with the
loss of 25 seniors
. The Cardinals rank at or near the bottom nationally in both experience and returning offensive line starts. Offensive coordinator Mike Sanford has already professed that he may have to use true freshmen on the o-line due to depth issues (only one returning starter). Overall, they return a Big East-low nine starters, play only three league home games and travel to Kentucky and North Carolina during the non-conference.
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NCAAF Handicapping: Bettors not too confident in Florida Gators
06.21.2011 01:55 PM
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One of the biggest questions bettors will be faced with heading into the 2011 season is what to make of the Florida Gators. Last season, after being gutted by the NFL draft (nine picks, six in the first two rounds), the Gators took steps back on both sides of the football (28 ppg, 23.3 ppg allowed in SEC play). The end result was an 8-5 overall mark including 4-4 in SEC play.
Urban Meyer decided it was time to step aside and Florida acted quick with the hiring of former Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Muschamp
went the NFL route
and hired Charlie Weis (Kansas City OC) to run the offense and Dan Quinn (Seattle DL) to run the defense.
Muschamp knows the SEC having played at Georgia and coached at Auburn and LSU. He was by all accounts the right hire but must hit the ground running and do so with limited resources. Muschamp already made his presence felt when he
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NCAAF Handicapping: Offensive line the key for Rutgers in 2011
06.21.2011 08:54 AM
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Article from
nj.com
with some news and links on Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights went 43-21 (34-24 ATS) from 2005 to 2009 but bottomed out last year with a 4-9 (2-9-1 ATS) mark. After a tough 13-10 home loss to Syracuse, the team went into tank mode and was outscored 144-65 its final three games of the season. This year, there is hope for optimism with 10 returning offensive starters and a favorable schedule. Rutgers plays seven home games, one neutral and four on the road. Their trio of road tilts in Big East play is about as “soft” as one could get (Syracuse, Louisville and UConn).
The key for Rutgers comes down to offensive line play. Over the last five years, no o-line has eroded more when it comes to sacks allowed.
Year: Sacks
2010: 61
2009: 40
2008: 19
2007: 11
2006: 8
Quarterback Tom Savage transferred to Arizona
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NCAA Football Betting Notes: A look at the new Big Ten
06.21.2011 08:01 AM
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Submitted by
Some news and notes regarding the Big Ten and its scheduling quirks.
All 12 Big Ten schools have one conference opponent they won't play until 2015 unless they meet in the Big Ten championship game.
For the next four years, these teams won’t play during the regular season:
Iowa – Illinois
Michigan – Wisconsin
Michigan State – Penn State
Minnesota – Ohio State
Nebraska – Indiana
Northwestern - Purdue
The division winners play in the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Every team will play an eight-game conference schedule, with six of the opponents already accounted for every year – the five teams in your division and your "rival" from the other division.
Legends - Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
Leaders - Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Along with the division changes and the addition of Nebraska, there are
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NCAAF Handicapping: Colorado plays the toughest schedule in the country
06.20.2011 01:00 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
We spoke briefly in last week's blog about
teams without a bye week
and in particular Colorado. I make the argument that the Buffaloes have the toughest schedule in the country and who they play specifically is only a small part of it.
For starters, because of their home-and-home against Hawaii, Colorado will play a 13-game schedule, which means no bye weeks – a tough situation for teams late in the season. Second, they didn't schedule any "wins" with no low level FBS or FCS teams on the slate. Next we have the issue of home/road games. Of their 13 games, only five are at Folsom Field. Their rivalry tilt against Colorado State will be played in Denver and the remaining seven are on the highway. Also hurting CU's chances at success are that three of its opponents (Washington, Washington State and Arizona State) come in off of bye weeks. And to top it
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NCAAF Handicapping: Publications release their Top 25 rankings
06.20.2011 10:02 AM
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College football preseason previews have hit newsstands across the country. Most of which provide useful information to bettors – returning starters, quotes, schedule analysis, etc. The top 25 rankings (see chart below), often compiled by non-bettors, are pretty vanilla with most publications sticking to the common approach that teams who were good in 2010 will likely be the same in 2011. As bettors we know that isn't always the case as the 2010 versions of Texas and Florida can attest to. The betting market does a pretty good job of sifting through the BS and coming up with its own list of "top" teams but that doesn't mean that these publications don't have an influence. We've spoke multiple times that Phil Steele, one of the few that offer gambling info, can impact how some bettors think. That isn't always a bad thing as Steele is much more cognizant of the yearly ebbs and flows. Worth a look, fun to talk about, and perhaps a nugget or two worth using.
Bold
- Teams listed by only one publication.
2011 College Football Preseason Rankings
Rank
Sporting News
Athlon
Lindy's
Phil Steele
1
LSU
Alabama
Oklahoma
Alabama
2
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Alabama
Oklahoma
3
Alabama
Oregon
Oregon
Boise State
4
Stanford
Florida State
LSU
Oregon
5
Oregon
Boise State
Florida State
Virginia Tech
6
Boise State
Notre Dame
Boise State
Notre Dame
7
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma State
LSU
8
Ohio State
LSU
Stanford
Texas A&M
9
Texas A&M
Ohio State
Nebraska
Georgia
10
Nebraska
Nebraska
Arkansas
Florida State
11
Arkansas
Texas A&M
South Carolina
TCU
12
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech
Nebraska
13
Virginia Tech
Stanford
Texas A&M
Arkasnas
14
Penn State
Georgia
Ohio State
South Carolina
15
Mississippi State
TCU
TCU
Ohio State
16
Northwestern
Arkansas
Georgia
Stanford
17
Michigan State
West Virginia
Wisconsin
USC
18
Notre Dame
Florida
West Virginia
Texas
19
South Carolina
Miami (FL)
Notre Dame
Oklahoma State
20
TCU
USC
Florida
Southern Miss
21
Auburn
South Carolina
Mississippi State
Houston
22
Utah
Michigan State
Michigan State
Arizona State
23
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Missouri
Wisconsin
24
Arizona State
Texas A&M
Auburn
Penn State
25
Wisconsin
Missouri
Arizona State
South Florida
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NCAA Football Handicapping: How teams fare without a bye week
06.17.2011 02:01 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Bye weeks and college football can play a big role in the outcome of a team’s season. While not all bye weeks are meaningful, most allow for preparation and rest which can provide a big boost. But what about teams that play an entire season without a bye week? It doesn’t happen often but enough for us to investigate how those teams fared down the stretch. We went back over the last three years and compiled a list (see blow chart) of every school that did not have a bye and tallied the results of their final three games of the regular season. Some schools (marked with asterisks) had their bye in Week 1 and played continuously for the remainder of the season. We included them because it really doesn’t serve as an advantage. The overall numbers of our study were 31-53 SU and 36-43-3 ATS. In 2009, virtually the entire Big Ten didn’t have a bye so the numbers are perhaps skewed with “none bye teams” often playing one another. If you completely eliminate the ’09 Big Ten, the overall numbers become
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