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NFL Gambling: Most think Raiders to Las Vegas a pipe dream

04.25.2016     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Various Las Vegas oddsmakers price the Raiders' chances of moving to Las Vegas. One said the Phillies have a better chance at winning the World Series while another went as low as a 2-1 underdog.

“I think we have more of a chance than we’ve ever had,” CG Technology sports books vice president Matthew Holt said. “We’re all cheering for it, but I’m not overly optimistic. We’re still an underdog, though a small underdog. I’ll say the odds are 2-1 against. I think (Davis) is serious to an extent.

“Talking about building a stadium and building it are different. And the NFL is so anti-gaming that until sports betting laws change, the league is going to be against it, so that’s another hurdle to clear. I have a lot more optimism that we’ll support a football team than a hockey team for 41 nights a year. I think the hockey team is going to be a struggle after the first year. It’s hard to get a regular fan base. Most of the warm-weather franchises have

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Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Las Vegas

Sammy Watkins ditches offseason workouts to play poker

04.21.2016     09:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A lot going on with the Buffalo Bills this offseason. Goofball Rex Ryan was recently spotted introducing fellow goofball Donald Trump at a rally in Buffalo. And when voluntary offseason workouts got underway on Monday, wide receiver Sammy Watkins was MIA. Watkins was instead playing poker in North Carolina.

"I know we had a great turnout for [the] voluntary deal; we weren’t 100-percent for attendance, but a couple of guys gave me phone calls, all that stuff," Ryan said. "I won’t get into specifics on who was here and who wasn’t here because it is voluntary, but I’m encouraged by the turnout we have and everybody’s I think excited to get this season going."

Asked specifically about Watkins, Ryan said, "I said I wasn’t going to talk about anybody being here or not being here."

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Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Poker

NFL Gambling: Early look at Week 1 pointspreads and totals

04.20.2016     09:26 AM     Printer Friendly
It's only April but there's a full market on NFL Week 1 games. Here's a quick peak at the current lines and totals.

2016-17 NFL Week 1 Lines and Notes
Week 1 Matchup
Carolina at Denver
Denver pk O/U 43.5
Rematch of SB 50; Denver won as +4.5 dogs
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Atanta -3 O/U 47.5
Tampa Bay won and covered both meetings LY
Minnesota at Tennessee
Minnesota -3 O/U 42.5
Minnesota went 7-1 ATS on the road LY
Cleveland at Philadelphia
Philadelphia -7 O/U 45
Philadelphia lost both games LY outright laying -7
Cincinnati at NY Jets
Cincinnati -1 O/U 42.5
New York has covered 5 of its last 6 as home dogs
Oakland at New Orleans
N. Orleans -1.5 O/U 50.5
Oakland went 6-2 ATS on the road LY
San Diego at Kansas City
Kansas City -7 O/U 43
KC held San Diego to 6 points in LY's 2 meetings
Buffalo at Baltimore
Batimore -2.5 O/U 43
Baltimore didn't cover as a fav LY (0-6-2 ATS)
Chicago at Houston
Houston -5.5 O/U 44
Chicago a 9-11 SU as road dogs since 2013
Green Bay at Jacksonvile
Green Bay -4 O/U 47
Jacksonville 10-21 as home dogs since 2010
Miami at Seattle
Seattle -7 O/U 45
Two teams haven't met since 2012
NY Giants at Dallas
Dallas -3.5 O/U 49
Dallas as won 6 of last 8 meetings (4-4 ATS)
Detroit at Indianapolis
Indianapolis -5 O/U 49
Indy is 14-7 ATS as favs of -3.5 or more w/ Luck
New England at Arizona
Arizona pk O/U 51
Only Week 1 total higher than 50 points
Pittsburgh at Washington
Pittsburgh -3 O/U 50.5
Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS L10 as -3 or more road chalk
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Los Angeles -2 O/U 46.5
Rams played only 1 game LY w/ a total 46+

Tags: NFL

NFL Handicapping: League releases 2016-17 schedue

04.20.2016     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Last week, the NFL released its 2016-17 schedule. Here's a link to an easy-to-read schedule grid. And another link to a generic version of each team's strength of schedule. Based on 2015-16's opponents' winning percentage, Atlanta and San Francisco play the "toughest" schedule while the New York Giants and Green Play play the "easiest."

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the early season MLB betting markets

04.11.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Matt Harvey lost again on Sunday, with the Mets priced as high as -280 here in Las Vegas.  Chris Archer leads the majors in strikeouts, while King Felix ranks second as I write this early Monday morning. Their two teams -- Tampa and Seattle -- teams are a combined 0-4 in the four starts from those two aces.   I closed out last week writing about how betting on aces – the guys that advanced metrics really, truly love – has evolved into a negative expectation wager over the last few years.  The quants have emerged as the dominating force in the MLB betting marketplace and there’s no way that I’ve uncovered to beat them at their own game.

So, I’ve been focusing on the opening week of the MLB season with an anti-quant mentality, looking to take advantage of what the betting markets are undervaluing, not overvaluing.  If the markets are too tilted towards starting pitching, that leaves three areas that aren’t appropriately priced, in my opinion – lineups, bullpens and streaks. 

There’s already early season action for streak bettors, with the Orioles winning while the Twins and Braves keep Read more

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

04.08.2016     10:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Chicago (Hammel) -135 at Arizona (Ray) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Even with the roof closed at Chase Field on Friday (decent chance of desert rain tonight), I’m still looking to bet the Over in Phoenix tonight.  Both of these teams have come out of the gate swinging – literally.  We’ve seen 17 home runs hit through the first four games at Chase Field.  Three of the first four games here have produced 15 runs or more.  And there’s no reason to expect anything dramatically different tonight.

Lineups are undervalued in the 2016 MLB betting marketplace, with starting pitchers exerting enormous influence over the prices for both sides and totals.  These two lineups have no business with a total of 9 right now.  Chicago has pounded out 29 runs in their first three games, with 14 extra base hits and an OPS of .920 in the process.  Arizona has scored 25 runs in four games even with AJ Pollack out with a broken elbow; hitting .295 as a team with 16 extra bae hits and an OPS of .851.  As we saw last night, either one of these lineups is capable of approaching or exceeding the total Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Arizona Diamondbacks Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part I

03.30.2016     11:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The nature of the sportsbetting marketplace is relatively simple to understand.  Bettors find an edge that they can profitably exploit; soon followed by bookmakers adjusting to reflect the popularity of the prevailing thought processes behind those winning wagers.  Over time, the marketplace evolves.  The factors that worked to produce profitable results for bettors get priced into the market and no longer offer that same level of value, leaving bettors scrambling to find new edges to exploit.  And this marketplace evolution can happen rather quickly; over the course of a single season when conditions warrant.

Among the major US sports over the last five years, nowhere has the betting market adjustments and evolution been greater than in baseball.  MLB handicapping methods that worked throughout the first decade of the 21st century are now largely obsolete.  The MLB betting markets have always been strongly tilted towards starting pitching matchups.  But over the last five years, the markets have rapidly adjusted to reflect the most influential ‘advanced metric’ stats for starting pitchers.

What are those Read more

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets

03.16.2016     09:44 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno


New York Mets
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U:  84-72-6
2015 Profits:  +5.9 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  89.5
2016 NL East Odds (Westgate):  Even
Projected Starting Rotation:  Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler
Key Departures:  Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese
Key Additions: Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Handicapper’s Take: “After making it to the World Series a year ahead of schedule, there’s plenty of reason to see the high excitement and expectation level surrounding the Mets. The starting rotation is obviously loaded with a front four that figures to be favored or at worst slight underdogs in nearly every game they pitch in this season. As a team which now has immediate name recognition when it comes to Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, you can expect inflated price tags. The two questions Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Rob Veno

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Washington Nationals

03.08.2016     07:46 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno


Washington Nationals
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U:  83-71-8
2015 Profits:  -18.9 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  89.5
2016 NL East Odds (Westgate):  +100
Projected Starting Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross, Tanner Roark
Key Departures:  Ian Desmond,  Drew Storen, Yunel, Escobar, Denard Span
Key Additions:  Ben Revere,  Daniel Murphy, Stephen Drew

Handicapper’s Take: “No longer the obvious class of the division as they were heading into the 2015 campaign, Washington still has one of the better rosters in all of baseball. They look to be very explosive on paper with 1B Ryan Zimmerman and LF Jayson Werth reportedly healthy plus the addition of ex-Met Daniel Murphy. CF Ben Revere provides speed at the top of the lineup and if Murphy hits in the #2 hole the fuse could be lit early and often for the 3-4 combo of Bryce Harper and Zimmerman. Five through Read more

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Rob Veno

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance Part I

02.29.2016     09:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion.  I write this article every year, and in every year except for two, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams.   Both exceptions were the same team – UConn – making miracle runs to win the title as prohibitive longshots.

Two years ago, Kevin Ollie’s Huskies were on the ropes in their tourney opener against St Joe’s, needing a late rally just to send the game to overtime.  Three weeks later, they cut down the nets as national champs at Jerry’s World in Arlington.  I didn’t see it coming.  Neither did the betting markets, with UConn priced in the 100:1 longshot range prior to the tournament.  And if a longshot like that wins every coinflip game in the tourney this year, I’m not likely to get it right either.

I write this article every year before the regular season is over, before the conference tournaments, before the tourney seedings are announced and before a single March Madness game has been played.  Obviously, there is room for a lot to change between now and the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers


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