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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:06 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl.
Click here for the AFC
. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21
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Tags:
NFL
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:02 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders
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Tags:
NFL
Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
New England Patriots
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Divisional Playoff Betting History 2002-present
01.07.2013 06:38 AM
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Below are the betting results for the NFL Divisional Playoffs dating back to the 2002-03 season. The results are broken down teams that played the previous week in the Wild Card and teams that had a first round bye. Teams that had a bye went 25-15 SU but only 17-23 ATS. Totals went 19-21 O/U.
Saturday Matchups - CRIS current lines
Baltimore at Denver -9 O/U 46
Green Bay at San Francisco -3 (-115) O/U 44.5
Sunday Matchups - CRIS current lines
Seattle at Atlanta -2.5 O/U 45.5
Houston at New England -9.5 (-105) O/U 48
NFL Divisional Playoff Betting History 2002-present
Year
Away (WC)
Home (Bye)
Score
Total
SU
ATS
2011
New Orleans
San Francisco +3.5
SF 36, NO 32
Over
Bye
Bye
2011
Denver
New England -14
NE 45, DEN 10
Over
Bye
Bye
2011
Houston +7.5
Baltimore
BAL 20, HOU 13
Under
Bye
WC
2011
NY Giants +8
Green Bay
NYG 37, GB 20
Over
WC
WC
2010
Baltimore
Pittsburgh -3.5
PIT 31, BAL 24
Over
Bye
Bye
2010
Green Bay +1
Atlanta
GB 48, ATL 21
Over
WC
WC
2010
Seattle
Chicago -10
CHI 35, SEA 24
Over
Bye
Bye
2010
NY Jets +9.5
New England
NYJ 28, NE 21
Over
WC
WC
2009
Arizona
New Orleans -7
NO 45, ARI 14
Over
Bye
Bye
2009
Baltimore
Indianapolis -6.5
IND 20, BAL 3
Under
Bye
Bye
2009
Dallas
Minnesota -2.5
MIN 34, DAL 3
Under
Bye
Bye
2009
NY Jets +7.5
San Diego
NYJ 17, SD 14
Under
WC
WC
2008
Baltimore +3
Tennessee
BAL 13, TEN 10
Under
WC
WC
2008
Arizona +10
Carolina
ARI 33, CAR 13
Under
WC
WC
2008
Philadelphia +4
NY Giants
PHI 23, NYG 11
Under
WC
WC
2008
San Diego
Pittsburgh -6.5
PIT 35, SD 24
Over
Bye
Bye
2007
Seattle
Green Bay -7.5
GB 42, SD 20
Over
Bye
Bye
2007
Jacksonville +13.5
New England
NE 31, JAX 20
Under
Bye
WC
2007
San Diego +10.5
Indianapolis
SD 28, IND 24
Over
WC
WC
2007
NY Giants +7
Dallas
NYG 21, DAL 17
Under
WC
WC
2006
Indianapolis +4
Baltimore
IND 15, BAL 6
Under
WC
WC
2006
Philadelphia +5.5
New Orleans
NO 27, PHI 24
Over
Bye
WC
2006
Seattle +9.5
Chicago
CHI 27, SEA 24
Over
Bye
WC
2006
New England +5
San Diego
NE 24, SD 21
Under
WC
WC
2005
Carolina +2.5
Chicago
CAR 29, CHI 21
Over
WC
WC
2005
Washington
Seattle -9.5
SEA 20, WAS 10
Under
Bye
Bye
2005
Pittsburgh +10
Indianapolis
PIT 21, IND 18
Under
WC
WC
2005
New England
Denver -3
DEN 27, NE 13
Under
Bye
Bye
2004
Indianapolis
New England pike
NE 20, IND 3
Under
Bye
Bye
2004
NY Jets +9.5
Pittsburgh
PIT 20, NYJ 17
Over
Bye
WC
2004
St. Louis
Atlanta -7
ATL 47, STL 17
Over
Bye
Bye
2004
Minnesota
Philadelphia -7.5
PHI 27, MIN 14
Under
Bye
Bye
2003
Carolina +7
St. Louis
CAR 29, STL 23
Over
WC
WC
2003
Green Bay +4.5
Philadelphia
PHI 20, GB 17
Under
Bye
WC
2003
Indianapolis +3
Kansas City
IND 38, KC 31
Over
WC
WC
2003
Tennessee +6.5
New England
NE 17, TEN 14
Under
Bye
WC
2002
Pittsburgh +5
Tennessee
TEN 34, PIT 31
Over
Bye
WC
2002
NY Jets
Oakland -5.5
OAK 30, NYJ 10
Under
Bye
Bye
2002
San Francisco
Tampa Bay -6.5
TB 31, SF 6
Under
Bye
Bye
2002
Atlanta
Philadelphia -7.5
PHI 20, ATL 6
Under
Bye
Bye
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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers
01.06.2013 08:57 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Northwestern
+16.5 at
Minnesota
O/U 131.5
Recommendation: Northwestern
The Gophers are fat and happy off their 18-2 closeout run against Michigan State on Monday, turning a very tight game into a blowout in the final four minutes. The Wildcats are looking for redemption following their worst loss of the season, a 99-64 home annihilation at the hands of #2 Michigan. It was a game where the Wolverines couldn’t miss, hitting just shy of 60% of their shots from both inside and outside the arc. Put those two factors together with this inflated double digit pointspread and Northwestern becomes a clear choice on Sunday.
Minnesota has repeatedly struggled to get good shots against the Wildcats 1-3-1 zone in every recent meeting. Northwestern has won four of the last seven meetings between these two schools, and Minnesota only has one win by more than eleven points against the Wildcats in the last nine games that they’ve played, a competitive
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Northwestern Wildcats
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Teddy Covers
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BCS Championship Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
01.04.2013 02:26 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
BCS Championship - Miami, Fla.
Monday, January 7, 5:30 pm PT - ESPN
-Alabama- vs. -Notre Dame-
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -7.5 O/U 42
CRIS Current:
Alabama -9.5 O/U 50
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Alabama -11.5
The history for teams trying to win a second consecutive BCS title game is not good. Florida State beat Virginia Tech to win the title following the 1999 season. The next year as they strove to repeat, the Seminoles lost 13-2 to Oklahoma as -10 favorites. Miami won a title in 2001, blowing out Nebraska. In ‘02, they were upset as -9 favorites against Ohio State. USC won a title in 2003, blowing out Oklahoma. In an attempt to repeat in 2004, the Trojans (-6.5) lost outright to Texas. That’s three repeat tries in the history of the BCS title game, and the defending champ (favored by a TD or more each time) lost outright each time.
I have nothing bad to write about Alabama here – they’re a great football team. Quarterback AJ McCarron had a remarkable season, throwing only three interceptions compared to 26 touchdown passes while
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Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Teddy Covers
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Big weekend for Las Vegas bettors and sportsbooks
01.04.2013 12:59 PM
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Las Vegas sportsbooks gear up for a
big weekend
starting with Saturday's two NFL Wild Card matchups and ending Monday with the BCS National Championship.
“The national championship game will be equivalent to the pro games for us,” Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Director John Avello said. “Normally, the pro games are bigger, but this year they’re all going to be big writes.”
“I’d suggest that game will be the biggest turning point of the weekend,” Vaccaro said. “I’m almost sure we’ll need Minnesota, but not because of straight bets. The Packers will be tied into every parlay and teaser.”
“People who are betting Alabama are going to lay the 9.5 points,” Vaccaro said. “But there are a lot of people who would just rather root for Notre Dame to win. We’ve gotten a little attacked on the Notre Dame moneyline. That’s what we’re seeing so far, and I think that could be what we keep seeing.”
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NFL
Las Vegas
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GoDaddy.com Bowl Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
01.04.2013 12:14 PM
Otto Sports
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Submitted by Otto Sports
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Mobile, Ala.
Sunday, January 6, 6 pm PT - ESPN
Arkansas State
vs.
Kent State
CRIS Opener:
Arkansas State -3 O/U 61
CRIS Current:
Arkansas State -4 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Arkansas State -0.5
The last of the mid major bowls kicks off on Sunday, the final game of what should be an exciting day’s worth of football. While it’s definitely not as exciting as the NFL Playoffs, as a standalone primetime game it should garner some attention. The GoDaddy.com Bowl takes place in Mobile which is notorious for its rain —in fact it’s the wettest city in the United States—but the preliminary forecast calls for a dry evening so totals bettors shouldn’t have to worry about poor conditions.
Both Arkansas State and Kent State like to run the football. The Golden Flashes rank 15th in the country in rushing yards per
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Tags:
College Football
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sun Belt
Kent State Golden Flashes
MAC
Marty Otto
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Sports Betting Podcast 1-4-2013 with Handicappers Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa
01.04.2013 10:27 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa. Erin broke down every game on the NBA slate while Alf shared his opinions on this weekend's four NFL Wild Card matchups.
Today's segments
Full Show
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
Alf Musketa - NFL Wild Card Weekend
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
NBA
NFL
Erin Rynning
Alf Musketa
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NFL Handicapping: Cincinnati's defensive turnaround results in 7-1 ATS run
01.04.2013 08:11 AM
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Cincinnati
at
Houston
-4.5 O/U 43.5
It's been an amazing defensive transformation by the Cincinnati Bengals who allowed 34 ppg their first three game of the season and ended up one of the best stop units in the league. Eight games into the season, the Bengals were 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, and 5-3 O/U. After a dominating 31-13 win in over the Giants in Week 10, the switch was flipped. Cinci closed out the year 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS and 1-7 O/U. One of the strengths of the defense has been its ability to
apply pressure without blitzing
.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans
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NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Line moves update
01.03.2013 12:25 PM
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A quick look at this weekend's NFL Wild Card line moves.
Cincinnati at Houston
CRIS Opener: Houston -5 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Houston -4.5 O/U 43.5
Early money came in on the Texans driving the line down to -4 but those were quickly bought up. The total has been bet down from and opener of 44 to as low as 43. A rematch of last year's Wild Card in which Houston won 31-10 as 4-point home favorites. The total in that game closed 38.
Minnesota at Green Bay
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -8 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 46
Sportsbooks not scared to death by bettors teasing Green Bay below a field goal have been dealing -8 and -7.5 for much of the week. Pinnacle of course protecting themselves with -9.5 +115. The prevailing total is 46 with Greek dealing 46.5 and Grande 45.5. Weather expected to be decent; 25 degrees with a small chance of snow.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
CRIS Opener: Baltimore -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -7 (-115) O/U 47
Earlier today, all of the 6.5's were taken out as Baltimore is now a touchdown favorite across the board.
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Tags:
NFL
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Redskins
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
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