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NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming

01.18.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.

New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.

For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Public lined up on San Francisco, Baltimore, and both overs

01.18.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A quick look at few betting consensuses for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.

OddsShark shows 63.1% lined up on San Francisco while underdog Baltimore checks in at 55.6%. The over for both games is right at 64%.

Sports Options shows a similar output with 71% of the "public" on the 49ers and 57% on the Ravens. Both totals again, at 60% or more to the over.

Bookmaker's numbers are even stronger – these represent the number of bets, not handle. San Fran has taken a whopping 74.6% of bets and the over (wow!) at 83.8%. Baltimore is just shy of 60% and the over at 77.7%.

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens

NFL Gambling News: Super Bowl XLVII betting lines

01.14.2013     02:02 PM     Printer Friendly
Here are your look-ahead lines for Super Bowl XLVII courtesy of 5Dimes.

AFC -2.5 (-115) vs. NFC
San Francisco -3.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -2 vs. San Francisco
Atlanta -1.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -5.5 vs. Atlanta

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl XLVII

NFL Gambling Trends: New England Patriots 8-3 ATS with same season revenge

01.14.2013     01:12 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Baltimore at New England -9 O/U 51.5

One angle to consider in your handicap of the AFC Championship Game this weekend is same season revenge. Over the past ten seasons the New England Patriots are 8-3 SU and ATS when playing with same season revenge. If we pare that down to same season revenge while playing at home they are a remarkable 6-0 SU and ATS. Baltimore defeated New England way back in Week 3 in a game the Ravens led for only about five minutes.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Championship News and Quotes

01.14.2013     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday. I’ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words. This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches. Who’s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season? In Part II, we take a look at the AFC Championship with New England a 9-point favorite vs. Baltimore. Click here for the NFC.

New England Patriots – All the Patriots quotes come straight out of ‘Coach Speak 101’ – New England is not a great team for publicizing what’s going on internally, and they certainly won’t say anything to give their opponent any sort of motivational edge.  That being said, there was legitimate concern on the roster following the season ending injury for their top red zone threat, tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Tom Brady following his NFL Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

New England Patriots are nearly even money to win Super Bowl XLVII

01.14.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Will your team win Super Bowl XLVII? Here are the current odds courtesy of Pinnacle.

New England Patriots
Yes +107
No -120

San Francisco 49ers
Yes +199
No -222

Atlanta Falcons
Yes +590
No -730

Baltimore Ravens
Yes +865
No -1200

Tags: NFL New England Patriots

NFL Gambling Trends: Teams that won by 20+ during regular season only 3-7 ATS in playoff rematch

01.08.2013     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Houston at New England -9 O/U 47.5

A quick database search shows that NFL teams that won by 20 points or more during the regular season were 6-4 SU but only 3-7 ATS against those teams in the postseason (dating back to 2003). Note also that of those 10 games, eight went over the total. New England beat Houston 42-14 at 5.5-point home favorites back in Week 15. Ironically, the last instance where this occurred was two years ago when the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 but lost in the Divisional Round 28-21 at 9.5-point favorites.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans

NFL Betting Trends: New England Patriots have been money burners in the postseason

01.07.2013     10:38 AM     Printer Friendly
Houston at New England -9 O/U 48

If you've been betting on the New England Patriots over the last few regular seasons, you've made a decent chunk of change. But that success hasn't carried over to the postseason. Dating back the 2007-08 campaign, Belichick and Brady are a combined 4-4 SU and a dismal 1-7 ATS.

New England Patriots Postseason Betting History 2007-present
Patriots SU
Patriots ATS
NY Giants +3
NYG 21, NE 17
Baltimore +7
NE 23, BAL 20
Denver +14
NE 45, DEN 10
NY Jets +9.5
NYJ 28, NE 21
Baltimore +3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
NY Giants +12.5
NYG 17, NE 14
San Diego +14
NE 21, SD 12
Jacksonville +13.5
NE 31, JAX 20

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four

01.07.2013     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.

It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers

Vegas sportsbooks happy to see San Francisco's win over New England

12.17.2012     01:21 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Francisco's win over New England and Detroit's egg at Arizona helped Las Vegas sportsbooks turn a profit for Week 15.

"The Lions losing was huge for us," said Osborne. "You basically had two teams playing for nothing, both on long losing streaks, but the public all sided with the Lions and their offense. The Cowboys’ overtime win against the Steelers was also good for us. It was the last posted event for us and all the major liability from the day made the Steelers a pretty big loss for us."

"Everything we won on the day would have been given back had the Patriots covered the spread," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne.

Tags: NFL Las Vegas San Francisco 49ers Detroit Lions


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