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January

21

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NFL Handicapping: Defenses That "Force" Sloppiness

08.22.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here now, the companion piece to yesterday’s article on sloppiness. These are the defenses that most (or least) encouraged sloppiness from their opposing offenses last season. The formula in this case is 5 times takeaways…plus the number of opponents’ incomplete passes.

Defenses That Forced Sloppiness in 2012

Chicago 28.9

New England 26.9

Houston 26.1

Washington 24.9

Seattle 24.5

Arizona 23.9

How about Lovie Smith! Give the man credit for coaching defense (and knowing how to exploit poor home turf and bad late season weather!).

Some of what gets credited as “forced sloppiness” by top contenders is simply the fact that opponents are constantly playing catch up. New England’s defense does benefit from panic attacks other teams have in shootouts. The Patriots play much softer vs. quality. They were third worst Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Detroit looking for offensive spark vs. New England

08.21.2013     11:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Detroit -2.5 O/U 46

Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz is taking a wait-and-see approach to Thursday's preseason tilt against New England. It is indicated that the starters will play at least a half. There does seem to be a little extra emphasis on getting the offense going after last week’s dismal showing (6 points) vs. Cleveland.


"We play 'em as much as we think they need to be played," coach Jim Schwartz said. "It depends. There have been times where we say, 'Hey, we're going to take it into the half, and then you got 50 snaps in the first half on offense.' There are other times you say you're going to shut them down after a half, and maybe you only play 20 snaps and that's not enough.

"We'll just play

Read more



Tags: NFL Detroit Lions New England Patriots




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saints and Patriots win and cover

08.17.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Taking the games in market rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Buffalo 20 (-4), Minnesota 16

Total Yardage: Minnesota 256, Buffalo 380

Passing Stats: Minnesota 19-37-0-151, Buffalo 25-36-1-207

Turnovers: Minnesota 1, Buffalo 1

Drive Points: Minnesota 16, Buffalo 7

Stat Score: Minnesota 16, Buffalo 25

A few quick notes from an odd game:

*Kevin Kolb of Buffalo played the whole first half for Buffalo. He put up some yardage…but the offense only scored two field goals with him at the helm. They had a defensive touchdown to give them a 13-3 lead at the half. Kolb was Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Recap: Browns and Eagles win and cover, Falcons and Chargers cash as dogs

08.16.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run some numbers from Thursday's four-game slate. We’ll take the matchups in rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Cleveland 24 (-1.5), Detroit 6

Total Yardage: Detroit 226, Cleveland 321

Passing Stats: Detroit 26-38-0-175, Cleveland 21-29-0-242

Turnovers: Detroit 0, Cleveland 0

Drive Points: Detroit 3, Cleveland 14

Stat Score: Detroit 12, Cleveland 18

Cleveland has a quarterback war, and a new coach who wants immediate results…which is often a great recipe for preseason success. Well, maybe not for the first half of the dress rehearsal game (next week at Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Gambling: Brady injures knee but could play Friday vs. Tampa Bay

08.15.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay at New England -3 O/U 40

New England's Tom Brady went down with an apparent knee injury during yesterday's practice but the team downplayed the incident and claims that Brady could play during Friday's game against Tampa Bay. The Patriots opened 3.5-point favorites but after Brady left practice most sportsbooks took the game off the board. The Pats are currently -3 (even)/-2.5 (-120).


"He basically got kicked," a source said. "It isn't like his knee collapsed or somebody rolled up on him. Is there a chance he could be sore and they decide to hold him out of practice? Yeah. Could they decide he shouldn't play in the game? Probably. But they could also decide it's just soreness and he needs to work it out. It's really nothing."







Tags: NFL New England Patriots Tampa Bay Buccaneers




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Friday Night's Results and Stats

08.10.2013     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Just like last night, let’s crunch some numbers in market rotation order. If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15.

Miami 27, Jacksonville 3

Total Yardage: Miami 267, Jacksonville 289

Passing Stats: Miami 15-26-1-161, Jacksonville 23-42-2-163

Turnovers: Miami 1, Jacksonville 4

Drive Points: Miami 7, Jacksonville 3

Stat Score: Miami 17, Jacksonville 19

Very important to pay attention to the numbers here. If you were scoreboard watching all night, you probably assumed Miami was playing much sharper because of their one-week head start. They seemed to be in command the whole way, and won a blowout. But, the offense Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Gambling: Vick to start Eagles' preseason opener vs. Patriots

08.07.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Philadelphia -4 O/U 40.5

Chip Kelly insists the quarterback competition between Michael Vick and Nick Foles is alive and well. That said, one of the two will start Friday's preseason opener against New England. As of Wednesday afternoon, it looks like Vick will get the nod. Not surprising that Friday's game features the highest total (by 4 points) on the board.




Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: Team-by-Team Turnover Margin 2010-12

07.23.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is a chart of NFL turnover margins over the past three seasons. During that span, New England was a combined +70… +29 ahead of no. 2 Green Bay (+41). New England, Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago, and Baltimore posted plus margins each of the past three seasons. Miami, Indianapolis, Denver, Arizona, Minnesota, and Oakland posted negative margins each of the past three seasons. Last season's biggest "gainers" include Washington (-14 to +17), Chicago (+2 to +20), Tampa Bay (-16 to +3), Arizona (-13 to -1), and Denver (-12 to -1). Last season's biggest "losers" include San Francisco (+28 to +9), Green Bay (+24 to +7), Detroit (+11 to -16), and Kansas City (-2 to -24). 

NFL Turnover Margin 2010-12
Team
2012
2011
2010
Total
Arizona Cardinals
-1
-13
-5
-19
Atlanta Falcons
13
8
14
35
Baltimore Ravens
9
2
7
18
Buffalo Bills
-13
1
-17
-29
Carolina Panthers
1
1
-8
-6
Chicago Bears
20
2
4
26
Cincinnati Bengals
4
0
-8
-4
Cleveland Browns
3
1
-1
3
Dallas Cowboys
-13
4
0
-9
Denver Broncos
-1
-12
-9
-22
Detroit Lions
-16
11
4
-1
Green Bay Packers
7
24
10
41
Houston Texans
12
7
0
19
Indianapolis Colts
-12
-12
-4
-28
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3
5
-15
-13
Kansas City Chiefs
-24
-2
9
-17
Miami Dolphins
-10
-6
-12
-28
Minnesota Vikings
-1
-3
-11
-15
New England Patriots
25
17
28
70
New Orleans Saints
2
-3
-6
-7
New York Giants
14
7
-3
18
New York Jets
-14
-3
9
-8
Oakland Raiders
-7
-4
-2
-13
Philadelphia Eagles
-24
-14
9
-29
Pittsburgh Steelers
-10
-13
17
-6
San Diego Chargers
2
-7
-6
-11
San Francisco 49ers
9
28
-1
36
Seattle Seahawks
13
8
-9
12
St. Louis Rams
-1
-5
5
-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3
-16
9
-4
Tennessee Titans
-4
1
-4
-7
Washington Redskins
17
-14
-4
-1





Tags: NFL New England Patriots




MLB Handicapping: Los Angeles Dodgers Dominating Division Lately

07.09.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Lost amidst all the Puig-headed arguing about how great six-week stats have to be to earn an All-Star invitation…is the message that the Los Angeles Dodgers have been sending lately to the rest of the NL West.

After Monday Night’s 6-1 victory in Arizona, the Dodgers are 7-4, with a 59-38 run differential in their last 11 ROAD games in the division. Not 7-4 with a split schedule. Seven of 11 with a big run differential only counting games away from home against the teams they need to beat to reach the playoffs. Strong stuff.

The offense has been lethal lately with both Puig and Ramirez putting up monster numbers (they were 5 of 10 combined tonight with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI). Kershaw is the ace of the league. Greinke was back in form tonight. If recently acquired Nolasco from Florida can settle down the back end of the rotation…we could have a rags to riches story that moves very quickly. The Dodgers play two more games in Arizona before hosting Colorado Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Notes on Power Ratings for the 2013 Season

07.05.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As we get closer to the NFL season, you’re going to see a lot of prediction articles in the mainstream and stathead media. The fact that Las Vegas now actively markets and publicizes their Regular Season Win Total propositions has certainly helped. Sportwriters and fans loved making predictions anyway. Now there’s an outline of expectations that people can refer too.

The stathead articles in this area all basically say the same thing over and over again. This has been true for years. I used to ghostwrite them myself…until it got boring just repeating the same things over and over again. The general themes are:
 
*Assume that turnover extremes will regress toward the mean

*Assume that records in close games will regress toward the mean

*Be skeptical of teams with bad point differentials who had decent records

*Be sure you know who played easy schedules and who played hard schedules

*Remember who had key injuries, and pencil in good Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence



13

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"New England Patriots'"

January

20


 
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