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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 15

12.12.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. That's a stat I've been keeping myself by hand from itemized scoring drives in boxscores ever since the USA Today started publishing them many years ago. In the first parenthesis are strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order, and, largely converging now). In the second parenthesis is turnover differential. Games are presented in market rotation order. I tried to line up the numbers as best as possible by abbreviating some of the team cities…

Thursday

San Diego: 14.6 on offense, 16.1 on defense (19-31) (-3 turnovers)

Denver : 23.3 on offense, 15.0 on defense (20-29) (-2 turnovers)

Football Outsiders has mentioned somewhere that San Diego supposedly has one of the five worst defenses in the history of their stat methodology. I mean…it’s pretty Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Early thoughts on Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, BCS and more

12.11.2013     07:38 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Rose Bowl / Rose Bowl / Pasadena, CA
255 Michigan State
256 Stanford -2 (Power Rating)

Game Opened: Stanford -3 Total Not posted
Current Line: Stanford -4 or -4.5 Total Not yet posted

Early Thoughts
1. Obviously a battle of mirror images as similar style offenses and arguably the nation’s toughest defenses meet. Both teams are extremely happy to be in this game which should equate to 60 minutes of full effort from each side.   
  
2. Can’t help but feel the edge in this game goes to Stanford because they’ve produced equally stellar defensive results against far superior offensive competition. Indiana, Nebraska and Ohio State are the best offenses MSU faced this season and they allowed 28, 28, and 24 points to those teams for an average of 26.7 per game. The Spartans overall defensive numbers are somewhat skewed by the seven lousy offenses they played.             

3. The passing game and offensive line will be vital to each team’s success and probably determine the Read more


Tags: College Football Rob Veno




NBA Handicapper Free Play: Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers

12.10.2013     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Phoenix +3 at LA Lakers O/U 206
Recommendation: Phoenix


It’s going to be a process before Kobe Bryant gets comfortable in this Lakers lineup.  His quote following the Lakers 12 point home loss to lowly Toronto in his season debut: “My rhythm is completely out of sync.”

Head coach Mike D’Antoni agreed wholeheartedly: “He'll work through his issues, and again, they're baby steps. He's coming back from a tough injury, and he's coming off eight months ... he is human, I think. We have to understand it's going to take the other players around him. It's going to be a little painful at first.”

Kobe Bryant is worth at least two or three points to this spread, but the Lakers are probably at least two or three points WORSE with him back on the floor – for now – as they adjust to new rotations and get their superstar acclimated to game speed.  Let’s not forget the excellent team chemistry this team had without Kobe on the floor for the first five weeks of the season – LA overachieved both SU and ATS.  That makes the Lake-show an easy ‘bet Read more



Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Los Angeles Lakers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: How to bet college football bowl games

12.09.2013     08:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
During football season, I usually write about the NFL every week.  But it wasn’t easy to make broad generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather.  And the college football bowl pairings were announced on Sunday Night.  So, I made the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.

Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.  Overall talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot about being there.  That’s why underdogs tend to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games.  It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.

Always check the local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any team’s level of preparation and Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Championship First and Second Half Betting Numbers

12.07.2013     08:51 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last night’s Mid-American Championship Game, Bowling Green continued its torrid 2013 run cashing as a second half “under” play for the 11th time in 13 games.  Always looking for hidden gems, here’s a look at the season’s results for each team involved in Saturday’s Conference Championship Games.

Conference USA - Marshall at Rice
1st Half ATS – Marshall 8-4-0 / Rice 9-3-0
1st Half Total – Marshall 5-6-0 / Rice 4-6-2 (Note: The Marshall-Gardner Webb game did not have a 1H total but had a 2H) 

Notes: Marshall is currently on a 5-0 1H ats streak defeating opponents by 14 or more in all five games. Rice is also a red-hot 1H play going 7-1 ats in their last eight games winning all seven of those contests by double digits.

2nd Half ATS – Marshall 6-6-0 / Rice 5-7-0
2nd Half Total – Marshall 7-5-0 / Rice 2-10-0

Notes: Of Marshall’s six road games this season, five of them resulted in 34 or more 2H points and a 5-1 “over” mark. Rice started the season playing nine consecutive 2H “unders” before going Read more


Tags: College Football Rob Veno




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Seton Hall Pirates

11.22.2013     08:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall
Recommendation: Seton Hall


Let's take a look at the Seton Hall Pirates as they take the short trip over to Brooklyn to face a very young Oklahoma squad. Last year was a tough one for Kevin Willard and the Hall as a rash of injuries left the team with little chance in Big East play (3-15). This year they're off to a 3-1 start with a loss in double overtime at Mercer. The Bears are certainly no slouch after winning 24 games a year ago including victories over Florida State, Alabama, and Tennessee on the road. They returned four starters from that group so I actually give credit to Seton Hall for their performance. Also have to like that Seton Hall is averaging over 38 free throws per game – a lot of these early season games have been decided by who wins the trips the charity stripe battle. As mentioned, OU is a very young team and showed well to open the season with a win over Alabama. But I'm not very high on the Crimson Tide and the Sooners were catching +4 in that contest and now laying over a bucket. I also read a somewhat interesting article about Oklahoma's feelings on the tournament and the focus seemed to be on the Read more


Tags: College Basketball Oklahoma Sooners Seton Hall Pirates Andrew Lange




College Football Handicapping: Week 13 Injury Report

11.21.2013     04:26 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Utah quarterback Travis Wilson is out for the rest of the season and his career could be in jeopardy after he sustained a concussion two weeks ago in a 20-19 home loss to Arizona St. Wilson finished 2013 with a 16-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Utes’ sophomore Adam Schulz started in last week’s 44-21 loss at Oregon, completing 13-of-30 passes for 181 yards with one TD and one interception. In four games this year, Schulz has connected on just 35-of-75 throws (46.7%) for 428 yards with a 2-2 TD-INT ratio.

Florida QB Tyler Murphy is ‘questionable’ vs. Georgia Southern due to a shoulder injury. Making his first career start and taking his first snap at the collegiate level last week, Sklyer Mornhinweg completed 10-of-13 passes for 107 yards in a 19-14 loss at South Carolina. UF didn’t put too much on his plate with most of his throws consisting of screen passes and short patterns. However, the redshirt freshman should be credited for being accurate and only making one mistake, an interception on the final drive with just over one minute remaining. The Gators are favored by 28 against the Eagles.

Missouri QB James Franklin is Read more


Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




NFL Gambling: Pass interference continues to have big impact on outcomes

11.21.2013     11:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from the Wall Street Journal on the NFL and pass interference. Defensive PI calls are obviously on the rise due to more passing but the rate of offensive PI calls remains similar to that of past seasons.
 

"It's a big grey area," said McCaffrey. He said the reason a penalty is not called more often is that the move is nearly impossible to decipher. He said it's hard for referees to distinguish receiver-created "picks" from contact initiated by defenders, who are allowed to get physical at the line of scrimmage. He said two things are key for the offense to avoid a penalty: Don't throw a forearm or otherwise make upper-body contact, and after setting a pick, at least pretend to run a route.






Tags: NFL




College Football Betting Preview: Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys

11.20.2013     02:17 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baylor at Oklahoma State
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Baylor -10.5 O/U 78
CRIS Current: Baylor -9.5 O/U 78
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baylor -7.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Oklahoma State

This sets up to be one of the best games of the week with first place in the Big XII – and a lot more for the road side – on the line. You can’t argue the fact Baylor has been dominant en route to its 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS records. They’ve won all their games by double digits which might make this pointspread look cheap on the surface. But it has to be said that Baylor’s schedule leaves me questioning whether or not this team has been truly tested by a terrific team as of yet. Their most impressive wins to date have come against Kansas State and Oklahoma. I think the Wildcats are a good couple notches down from last season and I don’t hold the Sooners in very high Read more


Tags: College Football Baylor Bears Oklahoma State Cowboys Big XII Ian Cameron




College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers

11.20.2013     01:05 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas A&M at LSU
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
LSU -4 O/U 70
CRIS Current: LSU -4.5 O/U 70.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: LSU -3
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Over

Although it has no bearing on the SEC West race, Saturday’s showdown between Texas A&M and LSU in Baton Rouge has implications galore for these two proud programs.

For starters, this is a recruiting game. Kevin Sumlin is starting to make inroads in Louisiana and Les Miles has always loved to work the I-10 corridor into East Texas. Also, the Aggies would love to avenge a 24-19 home loss to the Tigers last season.

On that afternoon in College Station, Texas A&M (8-2 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) raced out to a 12-0 lead but it could’ve been more. The Aggies had to settle for two field goals, missed an extra point and had a touchdown called back on one of the drives that ended in Read more


Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies LSU Tigers SEC Brian Edwards



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