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College Football Handicapping: Your conference realignment primer

05.28.2014     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Is there anything worse than needing half a season to get in tune with all of the conference realignment? The good news is you have three months to study. Godspeed.

Coming: Tulane, Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy (2015)
Going: Louisville, Rutgers

Coming: Louisville
Going: Maryland

Big Ten
Coming: Maryland, Rutgers
Going: Ohio State (kidding!)

Coming: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion
Going: Tulane, Tulsa, East Carolina

Sun Belt
Coming: Appalachian State, Georgis State, Georgia Southern, Idaho, New Mexico State
Going: Western Kentucky

Tags: College Football

MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

05.27.2014     10:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Stults) at Arizona (Miley) -120 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

With the roof expected open at Chase Field and two starting pitchers that have struggled with the long ball, we can project more than a few balls will leave the yard in tonight's Padres-Diamondbacks matchup. San Diego's Eric Stults is about as fringe a starter as you will see, even for the National League. His K rate is currently a career-low 4.44 per 9 and the FB/HR rate an alarming 14.1%. It is a rare occurrence but Stults is averaging a strikeout every TWO innings and has allowed at least one home run in eight of 10 starts despite averaging about 5 innings per start. Wade Miley has also been pitch-to-contact with a 15.6% FB/HR rate. Most alarming about Miley is for the third straight year his walk rate is up – more proof he’s no longer able to fool the league. In 29 innings of work at Chase Field, Miley's ERA sits at 7.14 with nine long balls. With the roof open last night we saw three home runs, 12 Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Betting News and Notes 5/27/2014

05.27.2014     08:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
According to Baseball-Reference's Pythagorean Win-Loss record, the Oakland A's have been the "unluckiest" team in the American League. Based on their runs scored vs. allowed the A's should be 36-15 rather than 31-20 – which is still the best record in the AL.

Exactly 50% of Pittsburgh's game have been decided by 1 run. The Pirates are 14-11 in those contests.

The Royals are 24-26 overall but only 4-12 in 1-run games.

Despite having a right-handed heavy lineup, the San Francisco Giants are a MLB-best 20-11 vs. right-handed starters.

The Los Angeles Angels are 19-6 vs. teams below .500 and 9-16 vs. teams above .500.

The Phillies are 13-31 vs. the American League the last three seasons including this year's 1-8 mark.

The Giants are the most profitable team in the National League at +12.5 units.

The Diamondbacks are the least profitable team in the National League at -10.4 units.

The Blue Jays are the most profitable team in the American League at +8.3 units.

The Red Sox are the least profitable team in the American League at -14.5 units.

Biggest OVER teams: Marlins 30-17-5 Read more

Tags: MLB Andrew Lange

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

05.21.2014     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Philadelphia (Kendrick) at Miami (Eovaldi) -135 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket winner on the Marlins Over last night, and Miami Overs remain a streak worth riding!  Under-the-radar MLB totals trends offer enormous potential for bettors.  The betting markets don’t seem to notice Over/Under streaks, nor do the national media. 

No talking head will tell you that Miami is 9-2 to the Over in their last eleven ballgames; 28-15 to the Over for the full season; the single strongest Over team in the majors this year.  Yet all 46 of the Marlins previous games this year have been totaled at 8.5 or less; 41 of those games totaled at 7.5 or less, including tonight’s contest.  Quite clearly, the markets are behind the curve when it comes to Marlins totals.

Unders begat unders; Overs begat overs.  Hot hitting lineups don’t get cooled off without ace pitchers to shut them down.  Overworked Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Previewing the Western and Eastern Conference Finals

05.19.2014     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  For all the drama of the first two rounds, it’s an all-chalk Final Four, with the top two seeds from each conference battling for supremacy.

With both Conference Finals getting underway on Sunday and Monday, I’ll take a closer look at the two series.  The goal, as always, is to unearth hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspread success while assessing pace and totals as well.

Predicting series success generally correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  But not as much as last year!  In 2013, the Final Four teams combined to go 31-11 (74%) against the spread in the first two rounds of postseason; each of the four teams cashing at a 67% clip or better.  The ‘surprise’ team of the four, Memphis, went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds before covering only once while getting swept by San Antonio.

The ATS success of the Final Four teams in 2014 pales in comparison to 2013.  Between them, the NBA’s Final Four have turned a Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling News: Miami Marlins begin tough road trip

05.08.2014     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Miami Marlins (19-15) have played some good baseball thus far and find themselves tied with Washington for the National League East lead. But the schedule becomes more challenging starting tonight as the Marlins embark on an 11-game, 11-day West Coast road trip. Miami has played the most home games (17-5) in the National League and has struggled when asked to hit the highway (2-10).


“It’s in the middle of our 20-game [in 20 days] stretch, so it’s going to be tough. But it’s going to prove where we’re at, I think,” catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia said. “We haven’t played well on the road, but we’ve scored runs, kept games close, had opportunities to win. We just couldn’t finish it.

“I think this road trip is going to be a big test for us to do that. We’re facing the Dodgers again — who we just got done facing. They’re in their home ballpark and, obviously, they’re going to want to repay the favor. I think we feel pretty good against those guys. I

Read more

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins

NHL Handicapper Free Play: Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens

05.06.2014     08:20 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Boston -130 at Montreal O/U 5
Recommendation: Boston

Rarely in the NHL playoffs do you see both road teams favored, but that is what we get tonight as Boston travels to Montreal for Game 3 in a 1-1 series while Chicago travels to Minnesota with a 2-0 series lead.  Despite losing serve on home ice Boston takes the momentum of Game 2 with them on the road where they sport the best road record in the Eastern Conference.  Boston once again came back from a two goal deficit to defeat Montreal 5-3.  The Bruins are a team of momentum; once you wake the sleeping giant there is no going back and the mental mindset of that team is righted and it's all she wrote.  I saw this transformation by the Bruins after they scored to cut Montreal's lead to 3-2 on Saturday.  You could sense at that instance the Bruins regained their confidence and began believing again.  This is the most important game of the series in my mind.  Boston will win Game 3 and will win the series in 5 games.  I've seen momentum and confidence with great teams in hockey for a long time, and I know when a series is over.  The Bruins win this one and Read more

Tags: NHL Boston Bruins Montreal Canadiens Sammy P

NHL Playoffs Handicapper Free Play: Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings

04.22.2014     07:39 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Boston -140 at Detroit O/U 5
Recommendation: Boston

Boston heads to Detroit tonight with the series knotted up at one game apiece. The Bruins played their typical grind it out game throughout Game 1, but couldn't seem to break through offensively.  It took a great individual effort from Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk late in the third period to get the Red Wings the 1-0 win.  Game 2 was much different as Boston was able to take advantage of its chances and put some goals on the board.  They went to the net hard and they were rewarded.  They didn't deviate from their plan and they stifled Detroit's offense once again allowing just one goal in a 4-1 win. Detroit's home ice advantage has been virtually nonexistent the past two seasons as they were a meager 18-13-10 at Joe Louis this regular season and just 4-4 over the past two postseason. Boston owned the best road record in the Eastern Conference this season at 23-12-6 and in the past three postseason the Bruins are 6-3 away from home in the first round.  Going into Detroit will be just another day at the job for the big bad Bruins.  Boston has the confidence and swagger back Read more

Tags: NHL Boston Bruins Detroit Red Wings Sammy P

MLB Handicapper: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

04.21.2014     11:25 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Cashner) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under

Two premium arms on the hill in Milwaukee with San Diego’s Andrew Cashner taking on the Brewers' Wily Peralta. Cashner has been nothing short of perfect through four starts with a 1.27 ERA. He's posted 27 strikeouts in 28.1 innings and perhaps more importantly a sweet 46-30 groundball-to-fly ball ratio. He'll be challenged by this Milwaukee's lineup but should have an advantage coming from the right-handed side. Like Cashner, Peralta has swing-and-miss stuff but has also garnered a lot groundballs (36-21 ratio). Offensively, the Padres have scored three or fewer runs in 13 of their 19 games and getting away from Petco has hardly been the cure with 2.3 runs per game in six games on the highway. Milwaukee's offense has feasted on the likes of sub-par starters Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez, Wandy Rodriguez, and Clay Buchholz (prior to his spike in velocity). Hard-throwing right-handers like Shelby Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange


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