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College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 1

09.03.2013     07:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With Penn State holding a narrow 13-10 lead late in the third quarter of Saturday's game against Syracuse, the Orange came up with a forced fumble on big PSU pass play. Syracuse's Allen Robinson looked like he had a clear lane to the end zone, a score that would have given his team a 17-13 lead. Instead, PSU offensive tackle Garry Gilliam (a converted tight end) made a great open field, touchdown saving tackle. Syracuse took over at the PSU 27-yard line and ended up missing a field goal. Early in the fourth quarter, Penn State kicked a field goal, tacked on a touchdown, and held on for the 23-17 win. The Nittany Lions failed to cover (-8) but had Gilliam not made that play, the straight up outcome of the game may have been different. 

Favored by -34, Ohio State's Urban Meyer was all business (and perhaps all dick) when he went for and converted two, two-point conversions on the Buckeyes' first two touchdowns of the game. Perhaps some karma involved as Buffalo snagged an easy ATS victory in the 40-20 loss. Boosters Beware! Meyer is now 2-6 ATS when laying double-digits since arriving in Columbus.

Last season, Iowa at times toyed with the idea of Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Using coach-speak in your handicap

09.02.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Part of the standard handicapping mantra includes ‘checking the local papers’ and ‘watching the coach’s press conference’ in an effort to get quality information that the betting markets aren’t paying attention too.  Computer algorithms designed to beat pointspreads can’t and don’t handicap coach-speak.  Few bettors actually take the time to do their homework.  So ‘cappers who make and take the time to check local sources and press conferences can find legitimate edges that are overlooked by most others – good information.

There’s no dictionary to help you translate coach-speak into betting decisions.  And in all the years I’ve been writing about sports betting, I’ve never once written a how-to article on how to approach coaches quotes.  It’s time.

This past week, while doing my research for the upcoming college football games, I ran into a press conference from Skip Holtz.  Skip was a very successful coach at East Carolina and UConn, then a very unsuccessful coach at South Florida.  In 2013, Holtz is taking over at Louisiana Tech, now that Sonny Read more


Tags: College Football NC State Wolfpack ACC Louisiana Tech Bulldogs C-USA Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Syracuse Orange

08.30.2013     07:37 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Penn State vs. Syracuse
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN2 (Meadowlands)
CRIS Opener:
Penn State -7 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Penn State -9 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Penn State -7
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

On the surface it was just another ho-hum year for the Penn State football program as it churned out an 8-4 record.  However, most bettors know that it could hardly be considered mundane – in fact it was truly magical.  The Lions were virtually left for dead and written off by the best of pundits and this was before they started last year with a 0-2 record.  After losses to Ohio and Virginia and low on depth Penn State hit an extra gear and won 8 of its next 10 games with most coming in the rugged Big Ten.  The season culminated with a rousing overtime win against the Wisconsin Badgers in Happy Valley.  Now the question will linger how does this program Read more


Tags: College Football Penn State Nittany Lions Big Ten Syracuse Orange ACC




College Football Betting Recap: Numbers and Notes From Thursday (8/29)

08.30.2013     06:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Wasn’t it great to have college football back on your TV?! Let’s run through the key numbers from all but the latest Thursday night finishers. Games are presented in market rotation order. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. The stat score formula is 2 times rushing yards, plus passing yards, times 0.67, divided by 15.

South Carolina 27 (-11), North Carolina 10

Total Yardage: N. Carolina 293, S. Carolina 406

Passing Stats: N. Carolina 26-43-0-194, S. Carolina 12-21-0-178

Yards-per-Play: N. Carolina 3.7, S. Carolina 6.9

Turnovers: N. Carolina 1, S. Carolina 0

Drive Points: N. Carolina 10, S. Carolina 21

Stat Score: N. Carolina 18, S. Carolina 28

Can’t say there was much surprising about the numbers or the result. The concept of “drive points” is a little misleading for SC tonight, because they had a 65-yard TD pass and a 75-yard TD run. Those were big plays Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

08.29.2013     12:00 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
Saturday, 2:30 pm PT - ESPN (Atlanta)
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -17.5 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Alabama -20.5 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -22.5
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Over

Alabama’s quest for a third consecutive national title and a fourth in five seasons begins Saturday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta when it takes on Virginia Tech. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Crimson Tide installed as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5.
These programs met at this same venue for the 2009 season opener. On that night, Frank Beamer’s team led 24-23 going into the fourth quarter. Making his first career start, Greg McElroy led ‘Bama back into the lead and it eventually won by a 34-24 count as a 6.5-point chalk.

Alabama returns six starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that blasted Notre Dame Read more


Tags: College Football Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Virginia Tech Hokies Brian Edwards




Canadian Football League Week 9 Betting Recap

08.27.2013     11:59 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 9 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter, team-by-team analysis of the eight teams that were in action…

Montreal Alouettes (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
The Alouettes pulled off the upset of the season in the CFL last week as they found a way to come from behind to defeat the BC Lions in a wild 39-38 win. Even more impressive what that they were minus their starting quarterback Anthony Calvillo and several of their key starters on both sides of the football. All the credit has to go to head coach and GM Jim Popp who made a quarterback change in the first quarter with Montreal trailing 15-0. The struggling Josh Neiswander was replaced by Tanner Marsh and the game started to turn in Montreal’s favor. The Alouettes, for the second straight game, played with a ton of energy and the players that stepped in for the injured starters played hard. Marsh made some mistakes but in the end he made enough plays in the passing game against a tough BC defense including the decisive play in the game’s dying seconds to put the Alouettes in position to win. Marsh threw a near Hail Mary down the field which was Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
 
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling Preview: LSU Tigers vs. TCU Horned Frogs

08.26.2013     12:46 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LSU vs. TCU
Marty Otto's Recommendation:
LSU
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN (at Cowboys Stadium)
CRIS Opener:
LSU -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: LSU -4 O/U 50

This is one of the marquee games of college football’s opening week and it’s being played on a monster stage. It’s Saturday night, on ESPN primetime, at massive Cowboys Stadium. The Tigers currently find themselves as 4-point favorites and I wouldn’t expect them to go off at anything less than that number barring a major suspension or injury.

Coaching
Les Miles enters his ninth season as head coach at LSU. His teams have managed to win at least 10 games in each of the last three years and in six of his previous eight seasons. John Chavis remains as the defensive coordinator. Cam Cameron is the new offensive coordinator after a long stint in the NFL.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson has been at the helm for 13 years Read more


Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC TCU Horned Frogs Big XII Otto Sports




NFL Gambling News: Bettors react to preseason results

08.26.2013     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With each team playing at least three preseason games, we're starting to see movement in the betting markets for Week 1 of the regular season. Let's check out some of the bigger line moves that have taken place over the last few weeks. Lines based on CRIS.

New England at Buffalo - The Patriots opened -6.5 and were bet up to -7. Following injuries to EJ Manuel (probable for Week 1) and Kevin Kolb (out indefinitely) a flood of money came in on New England; now -9.5.

Minnesota at Detroit - The Lions opened -3 way back in late May and were quickly bet up to -3.5 where is stood for most of the summer. The Vikings haven't look very good this preseason (0-3 SU/ATS) and as a result the Lions are now 4.5-point home favorites.

Oakland at Indianapolis - Like Minnesota, Oakland had its struggled this preseason (1-2 SU/ATS). Prior to Week 1 of the preseason the Colts moved from -6.5 to -7. Two weeks later they went to -7.5 and are now -8 (or -9.5-plus money teaser line). 

Houston at San Diego - The Chargers may have won and covered last week's game against Arizona (24-7) but it Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 28, 2014 07:35 PM.