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Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: First kickoff to result in a touchback

02.02.2012     07:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
First kickoff to result in a touchback?
Recommendation: Yes -200


This bet is still worth making at -200 or better, and it’s an interesting handicap.  The Patriots have a strong tendency to defer when they win the opening coin toss, while the Giants’ prevailing tendency is to get the ball first when they win the toss.  As a result, chances are pretty good that it’s going to be Stephen Gostkowski with the opening kickoff, not Lawrence Tynes.  Gostkowski is a touchback type kicker with a big leg and the adrenaline will most assuredly be flowing for that opening kick.  The Giants don’t attempt many kickoff returns from deep in their own end zone – without a strong return game, they are quite comfortable taking the ball at the 20-yard line.  And the pristine conditions inside Lucas Oil Stadium have produced touchbacks on 76% of the kickoffs for the full season.  Put it all together and we’re getting a 3:1 favorite while laying 2:1 or less to do it.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: 77-year-old Vegas man wins Station Casinos' Football Contest

02.02.2012     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Article on Las Vegas resident Ernie Carey, who at 77 years old won this year's Station Casinos' NFL Contest. Carey finished 180-65, 73% straight up to claim the title. The grand prize was apparently a $225K house.


“In the first week, I had every team but the (New England) Patriots, who lost to the (Buffalo) Bills after being ahead at halftime,” Carey said. “That’s kind of the way the year went.”

“When we get that money, it will replenish my gambling fund,” Carey said. “My wife said she wants to buy new furniture, but I want to have a little extra to gamble.”

“I bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs and I got 5-2 (odds). So if they win, I’ll get $183. Then, I put $90 on the Giants and am getting three points,” he said. “So, if they keep in close, I’ll win both sides.





Tags: NFL Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: University students lean New England

02.01.2012     08:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Who doesn't have an opinion on the Super Bowl? Lange's kid came home from school the other day and said that nearly his entire kindergarten class were lined up on the Patriots – is fading 5-year olds a proven strategy? Up next, the North Dakota State Science and Mathematics department which just spent a boatload of man hours – they broke down over 1,700 NFL games – to come up with this rock solid conclusion...


“Basically I think that the New England Patriots have a slight advantage because I think for the New York Giants to win it's going to take a higher turnover margin.”





Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI




Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Total Kickoff Returns UNDER 6.5

01.31.2012     12:12 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
Total Kickoff Returns
Recommendation: Under 6.5 (-160 at LVH)


New York Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes doesn’t have the strongest leg in the NFL. In 2010 the Giants averaged a touchback on just 8.2% of all kickoffs. It certainly doesn’t help that the Giants also play many games in poor weather and in plenty of outdoor stadiums. But this history actually helps us this Sunday with Tynes now indoors and kicking off from the 35-yard line.

Consider this; since the new rule was adopted prior to the season the Giants have averaged a touchback on 38.4% of all kickoffs. That’s a significant improvement and shows Tynes has the leg to get it deep with that extra five yard boost from the rulebook. But that’s not the most significant factor in play this weekend. In the three games the Giants played indoors they averaged a touchback on a whopping 60% of all kickoffs!

If there was one player we needed to really worry about with this prop it was Tynes and I think the numbers bear out that he should be no issue at all.

New England kicker Gostkowski has a much stronger leg and while we Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI Otto Sports




Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Victor Cruz OVER 5.5 catches

01.31.2012     07:18 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
New York Giants’ Victor Cruz Receptions
Recommendation: OVER 5.5 (-130 at Greek)
 
No player in the NFL was targeted more by his quarterback over the final half of the season than the New York Giants’ Victor Cruz. Eli Manning threw the ball his way a remarkable 125 times in games from Week 8 up to the Super Bowl. Cruz, in turn, has responded with a boat load of receptions. Nine times over the last 13 games the wideout has had at least six receptions which would be good enough to cash this prop bet in the Super Bowl.
 
One of those nine games came against this same opponent. Back in their Week 9 meeting with New England, Cruz finished with six catches for 91 yards. The speedy wide receiver arguably has a better matchup in order to post similar or better numbers this week with the fast turf in Indy and no wind conditions to deal with. And Cruz could see more targets in this game simply because Hakeem Nicks is still dealing with a shoulder injury.
 
Quietly, Cruz has become the favorite target of Eli Manning and led the team in receptions and I don’t expect that to Read more


Tags: NFL New York Giants New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVI Otto Sports




Las Vegas oddsmakers offer opinions on Super Bowl XLVI

01.31.2012     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Gaming Today got the opinions of some Las Vegas oddsmakers and local media members on Super Bowl XLVI. Nine of the 11 picked New England to win. LVH's Jay Kornegay was on board with the Giants and MGM's Jay Rood hinted that the game will go under.


Jay Rood, MGM Resorts – Patriots 24-23: I see a low scoring game with Brady executing a last minute drive to seal the game and his hall of fame credentials.

Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming – Patriots 27-20: Brady and Belichick will be too much for the Giants in a double-revenge game.

Jay Kornegay, LVH Super Book – Giants 27-24: I think the Giants defensive momentum carries over into this game and frustrates Brady.

Bert Osborne, South Point – Patriots 31-20: I’ve seen the Giants look bad a lot more times this season than I have with the Patriots.

Bob Scucci, Coast Resorts – Patriots 27-24: I think this will be a closely fought game with no team getting too far ahead, just like their last Super Bowl and week 9 this year.

Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVI Betting: New England's defense on the rise

01.30.2012     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Article that argues the defenses for New England and New York are evenly matched. Some of the logic is without question flawed but with improved health, the Patriots are clearly in a better spot defensively than they were during the regular season.


“I think just getting guys back healthy, first and foremost,” fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo said when asked why the defense has improved. “Getting [Patrick] Chung back, getting [Brandon] Spikes back; being able to play with the same group of guys for a couple weeks, which is an extended period for this team this year. I think that’s the main thing for us.”

“We’re the same defense,” New England linebacker Rob Ninkovich said. “Obviously, we had some things that weren’t going our way earlier in the year; we had some ups and downs. But I think we did a good job of fighting through everything and improving each week towards the end of the year, which is the most important part of the year.”

Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI




Handicapper Teddy Covers' Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview

01.30.2012     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.

The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.

-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week Read more


Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI New England Patriots New York Giants Teddy Covers




Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: New England preps for New York's pass rush

01.30.2012     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England talks about what it needs to do to keep New York's pass rush in check. The Giants recorded 48 sacks during the regular season including two in their Week 9 win in Foxboro. In three postseason games, the G-Men have notched nine sacks. But New England allowed just one sack against Baltimore and Denver – two teams that combined for 89 sacks during the regular season.


As a quarterback, you just understand that you can't sit there and hold the ball all day," said Brady, who is slow-footed but nifty at sliding and stepping up in the pocket. "You'd better find someone and get rid of it, 'cause they're comin.' You don't want to sit back there and sort things out."





Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI




Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Odds to win MVP award

01.27.2012     01:28 PM     Printer Friendly
Odds on who will be named Super Bowl XLVI MVP courtesy of Pinnacle. Tom Brady – who already has two under his belt – is the favorite at -105 followed by Eli Manning at +225. Also, a listing of MVP winners dating back to 2000. Quarterbacks have won 24 times including four of the last five.

Super Bowl MVP Winners 2000-11
Year
MVP
Team
Position
2000
Kurt Warner
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback
2001
Ray Lewis
Baltimore Ravens
Linebacker
2002
Tom Brady
New England Patriots
Quarterback
2003
Dexter Jackson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Safety
2004
Tom Brady
New England Patriots
Quarterback
2005
Deion Branch
New England Patriots
Wide receiver
2006
Hines Ward
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide receiver
2007
Peyton Manning
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
2008
Eli Manning
New York Giants
Quarterback
2009
Santonio Holmes
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide receiver
2010
Drew Brees
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
2011
Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback


Super Bowl XLVI MVP Odds
Player
Odds
 Tom Brady
  -105
 Eli Manning
  +225
 Field (any other player)
  +668
 Victor Cruz
  +873
 Hakeem Nicks
  +1231
 Aaron Hernandez
  +1538
 Wes Welker
  +1640
 Ahmad Bradshaw
  +1743
 BenJarvus Green-Ellis
  +1743
 Deion Branch
  +3688
 Danny Woodhead
  +3688
 Brandon Jacobs
  +4098
 Mario Manningham
  +4098




Tags: NFL New York Giants New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVI



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