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January

20

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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense

01.25.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:

The Harbaugh brother angle

Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia

Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status

Ray Lewis’s retirement

Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.

Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes

I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Drive Points and Power Ratings for Super Bowl XLVII

01.21.2013     01:41 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, we’re back to look at the drive point numbers for the two remaining teams in the NFL brackets. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. We’ve been using it through the regular season to try and get a read as best as possible on “true” offense and defense.

First, a reminder of the regular season averages for the Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.

Regular Season Averages

San Francisco: 15.4 on offense, 11.6 on defense (#3 Sagarin schedule)

Baltimore: 15.7 on offense, 12.5 on defense (#18 Sagarin schedule)

The Niners get the nod in regular season numbers, with +3.8 vs. a killer schedule being better than +3.2 vs. what was roughly an average schedule. Is strength of schedule enough to bump them up to superiority by more than a field goal at a neutral site? Interesting that teams coached by brothers had such similar Read more



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming

01.18.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.

New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.

For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Public lined up on San Francisco, Baltimore, and both overs

01.18.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at few betting consensuses for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.

OddsShark shows 63.1% lined up on San Francisco while underdog Baltimore checks in at 55.6%. The over for both games is right at 64%.

Sports Options shows a similar output with 71% of the "public" on the 49ers and 57% on the Ravens. Both totals again, at 60% or more to the over.

Bookmaker's numbers are even stronger – these represent the number of bets, not handle. San Fran has taken a whopping 74.6% of bets and the over (wow!) at 83.8%. Baltimore is just shy of 60% and the over at 77.7%.




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling News: Super Bowl XLVII betting lines

01.14.2013     02:02 PM     Printer Friendly
Here are your look-ahead lines for Super Bowl XLVII courtesy of 5Dimes.

AFC -2.5 (-115) vs. NFC
San Francisco -3.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -2 vs. San Francisco
Atlanta -1.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -5.5 vs. Atlanta




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl XLVII




NFL Gambling Trends: New England Patriots 8-3 ATS with same season revenge

01.14.2013     01:12 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at New England -9 O/U 51.5

One angle to consider in your handicap of the AFC Championship Game this weekend is same season revenge. Over the past ten seasons the New England Patriots are 8-3 SU and ATS when playing with same season revenge. If we pare that down to same season revenge while playing at home they are a remarkable 6-0 SU and ATS. Baltimore defeated New England way back in Week 3 in a game the Ravens led for only about five minutes.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Championship News and Quotes

01.14.2013     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday. I’ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words. This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches. Who’s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season? In Part II, we take a look at the AFC Championship with New England a 9-point favorite vs. Baltimore. Click here for the NFC.

New England Patriots – All the Patriots quotes come straight out of ‘Coach Speak 101’ – New England is not a great team for publicizing what’s going on internally, and they certainly won’t say anything to give their opponent any sort of motivational edge.  That being said, there was legitimate concern on the roster following the season ending injury for their top red zone threat, tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Tom Brady following his NFL Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




New England Patriots are nearly even money to win Super Bowl XLVII

01.14.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Will your team win Super Bowl XLVII? Here are the current odds courtesy of Pinnacle.

New England Patriots
Yes +107
No -120

San Francisco 49ers
Yes +199
No -222

Atlanta Falcons
Yes +590
No -730

Baltimore Ravens
Yes +865
No -1200




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Trends: Teams that won by 20+ during regular season only 3-7 ATS in playoff rematch

01.08.2013     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at New England -9 O/U 47.5

A quick database search shows that NFL teams that won by 20 points or more during the regular season were 6-4 SU but only 3-7 ATS against those teams in the postseason (dating back to 2003). Note also that of those 10 games, eight went over the total. New England beat Houston 42-14 at 5.5-point home favorites back in Week 15. Ironically, the last instance where this occurred was two years ago when the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 but lost in the Divisional Round 28-21 at 9.5-point favorites.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans




NFL Betting Trends: New England Patriots have been money burners in the postseason

01.07.2013     10:38 AM     Printer Friendly
Houston at New England -9 O/U 48

If you've been betting on the New England Patriots over the last few regular seasons, you've made a decent chunk of change. But that success hasn't carried over to the postseason. Dating back the 2007-08 campaign, Belichick and Brady are a combined 4-4 SU and a dismal 1-7 ATS.

New England Patriots Postseason Betting History 2007-present
Year
Opponent
Score
Patriots SU
Patriots ATS
2011
NY Giants +3
NYG 21, NE 17
Loss
Loss
2011
Baltimore +7
NE 23, BAL 20
Win
Loss
2011
Denver +14
NE 45, DEN 10
Win
Win
2010
NY Jets +9.5
NYJ 28, NE 21
Loss
Loss
2009
Baltimore +3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
NY Giants +12.5
NYG 17, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
San Diego +14
NE 21, SD 12
Win
Loss
2007
Jacksonville +13.5
NE 31, JAX 20
Win
Loss





Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans



15

Page 15 of 33
"New England Patriots'"

January

20


 
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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jan 20, 2017 10:24 PM.