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College Football Gambling: Georgia Tech o-line injury could be key

10.27.2011     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Clemson -3.5 at Georgia Tech O/U 63.5

A couple notes on this weekend's Clemson-Georgia Tech contest. It doesn't appear that Tech starting center Jay Finch (leg) will be able to play. Finch had played every game this season and will be replaced by Nick McRae. The loss of Finch could be critical especially with Clemson nose tackle and potential NFL first rounder Brandon Thompson lining up on the other side. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney pointed out that when Finch went down on the first play of last week's game against Miami, it had a big impact. The Yellow Jackets managed only seven points in the loss. 

As for the line, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution chatted with Caesars oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman about the move towards Tech (opened -4.5). Furman said that the game has been split with the public on Clemson and the sharps on Georgia Tech. Read more

Tags: College Football Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Clemson Tigers ACC

NCAAF Handicapper Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels

10.27.2011     11:33 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Wake Forest at North Carolina -6.5 O/U 53.5
Recommendation: North Carolina

North Carolina hosts Wake Forest on Saturday, and I’m not in agreement with the betting support of the Demon Deacons.  The Tar Heels were crushed by Clemson last week 59-38 but a closer look shows that they had six turnovers (mostly self-inflicted) while also allowing two defensive touchdowns. Wake Forest has turned the ball over five times all season; a major factor behind their surprising record (5-2 SU overall, 4-1 ACC). But the divergent marks and recent results set up for some value on the home side. Two weeks ago, North Carolina (5-3, 1-3 ACC) outgained a superior and surging Miami (FL) team 429-311 and held the Hurricanes to 44 yards rushing yet lost 30-24. The UNC defense should be able to duplicate that type of statistical performance against Wake’s suspect ground game (101 ypg, 2.9 ypr).

On the flip side, the Tar Heels are primed for plenty of Read more

Tags: College Football North Carolina Tar Heels Wake Forest Demon Deacons __

Using rushing stats as a way to earn pointspread profits in college football

10.27.2011     09:31 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
If you’ve been following along the past month and reading my articles you’re aware that I’ve discussed and reviewed running game success in college football. If you’re able to handicap a game and determine that one team will have a significant advantage at the point of attack and outrush their opponent by margin, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets.

Last week, teams that outrushed their opponent by at least a 2-to-1 margin went 16-4 ATS. That follows the previous two weeks in which “double rushers” went 19-3 ATS and 21-3 ATS. For the season, those teams with a 2-to-1 advantage are 144-41 ATS (78%). Last season with a sample size of nearly 300 games, teams under our parameters covered the pointspread 74% of the time.

This week, let’s try to isolate some games where a team may have a significant advantage at the point of attack and in the running game. Keep in mind, we also try to get value in the betting line, but that will be nearly impossible if your teams of interest are ranked in the top-10. Those teams have been beating the pointspread at a high rate and you’re paying a tax at this point Read more

Tags: College Football __

College Football Betting: Georgia favored over Florida, Brantley expected back

10.27.2011     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Georgia -3 vs. Florida O/U 49.5

The World's Largest Cocktail Party is all set for Saturday with Georgia currently a 3-point favorite. Florida has lost three straight but expects to have quarterback John Brantley back. The Gators have managed only 27 points the last three weeks but the team is optimistic that the offense will run better with Brantley under center. At 2-3 in league play, Florida remains a long shot to win the East Division. Winners of five straight, Georgia sits tied with South Carolina at 4-1. Both teams come in off of a bye week. The Gators have won and covered three straight in the series. The last four meetings have gone over the total.

Florida-Georgia Betting History 2001-10
Georgia Score
Florida Score
SU Winner
ATS Winner
O/U Result
Florida -1
Over 50
Florida -16.5
Over 49.5
Florida -7.5
Over 56
Georgia +7
Over 54
Georgia +13.5
Under 41.5
Florida -3.5
Under 41.5
Georgia -6.5
Over 49.5
Florida +1.5
Under 45
Florida +1.5
Under 53
Georgia +19.5
Under 57.5
Florida 8-2
Florida 6-4
5-5 O/U

Tags: College Football Georgia Bulldogs Florida Gators SEC

NCAAF Betting Notes: Struggling Navy defense hampered by injuries

10.26.2011     12:39 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Navy at Notre Dame -20.5 O/U 62

Teddy Covers pointed out some pretty startling numbers on Navy's defense in the Sportsmemo posting forum earlier today. Adding to the Midshipmen's woes – or perhaps better explaining it – is a stop unit absolutely littered with injuries. Defensive coordinator Buddy Green said the team has been forced to make multiple personnel changes heading into Saturday's game at Notre Dame. Most bettors are probably not eager to lay points with an Irish squad that is on an 8-20-2 ATS run as home chalk but they should have no trouble moving the football at will against Navy. Read more

Tags: College Football Navy Midshipmen Notre Dame Fighting Irish

College Football Wednesday Free Pick: UConn Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers

10.26.2011     12:26 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Connecticut at Pittsburgh
Recommendation: Over 21 first half

Going to buck the conventional wisdom that Pittsburgh running back Ray Graham will be fed a steady diet of the ball from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Head coaches always like to fix what's broken and head coach Todd Graham's spread passing system has come to a screeching halt recently. Expect Graham, who has had extra time to prepare, to notice how poorly the Huskies have fared against similar spread passing teams Western Michigan and West Virginia. Obviously quarterback Tino Sunseri is not WMU's Alex Carder and he doesn't have the weapons WVA's Geno Smith has, but those teams did expose Connecticut's secondary (again without top CB Wreh-Wilson tonight) to the tune of 1,031 total yards and 81 points.

Pitt's offensive line has been a mess in pass protection but quick hitting patterns and enough time for a few shots over the top should be expected here. Graham is always a threat Read more

Tags: College Football UConn Huskies Pittsburgh Panthers Big East Rob Veno

NCAAF Betting Alert: Suspensions handed out for Arizona-UCLA brawl

10.26.2011     11:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Arizona Wildcats suspended four players from their secondary following last week's altercation against UCLA. Starters Shaquille Richardson and Jourdon Grandon won't play while Lyle Brown and Mark Watley will sit the first half. Despite the losses, Arizona has seen most of the money for this weekend's game at Washington. CRIS opened Arizona +8 but the current number is +4.5 including +4 at Pinnacle.

UCLA suspended six of its players – four of which wide receivers – for Saturday's game against California. The foursome of pass catchers (Randall Carroll, Shaquelle Evans, Ricky Marvray and Taylor Embree) has combined for 30 catches and 360 yards this season.

Here is a video link to the brawl. Make sure you spot the "ref".

Tags: College Football Arizona Wildcats UCLA Bruins PAC-12

NCAAF Betting Tips: Nebraska could wear down Michigan State second half

10.26.2011     10:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan State at Nebraska -4 O/U 49.5

Article on how Nebraska's no-huddle offense can wear down teams in the second half. Perhaps a useable betting approach for Saturday with Michigan State coming in off back-to-back tough outings against Michigan and Wisconsin. The Cornhuskers all but had a bye week in their 41-14 win at Minnesota.

"That's what it does," Reed said. "When you get our line down the field cutting guys and our receivers downfield cracking on their safeties, it really wears on a defense."

"Our tempo wears people down some," Pelini said. "You hope that you're in great shape, and our football team, I believe, has worked hard during the offseason and during the season. I think we're in really good shape, and you hope that lends to getting stronger as the game goes on."

Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans Big Ten

NCAAF Betting Notes: Oklahoma defense questioned, players hold meeting

10.26.2011     09:20 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Oklahoma -13.5 at Kansas State O/U 58.5

Interesting stuff out of Norman with Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops hinting that his defense may be overrated. Even after the loss to Texas Tech, the Sooners are still solid numbers-wise, but this is far from an elite group and the upcoming schedule features a handful of potent offenses (Texas A&M, Baylor and Oklahoma State). Not uncommon to see players overreact to a devastating defeat but worth mentioning that linebacker Travis Lewis called out various teammates for not playing hurt. And what would an upset loss be without a players-only meeting. Note that according to our ACCU-Stats, Kansas Read more

Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners Kansas State Wildcats Big XII

College Football Gambling: Iowa State Cyclones make switch at quarterback

10.26.2011     08:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Iowa State at Texas Tech -15 O/U 66.5

Iowa State is making a switch at quarterback with redshirt freshman Jared Barnett slated to start against Texas Tech. Following a dramatic triple overtime win over Iowa earlier this season, it appeared that Steele Jantz was going to be the long term solution. But after hurting his foot against UConn, head coach Paul Rhoads said that Jantz lost his confidence and it showed in his play. Last week against Texas A&M, Barnett replaced Jantz in the first half and finished 16-of-36 for 180 yards. He also ran for 66 yards.

"We've lost four games in a row. We have not played productively as an offensive football team and a good part of that is your quarterback play," Rhoads said. "Steele has not played at a level that we would see him continuing on as the starter for this game, Read more

Tags: College Football Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders Big XII


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