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Injuries force Louisville to make adjustments
11.05.2010 07:26 AM
Printer Friendly
Louisville at Syracuse -6 O/U 44.5
Louisville will be without its starting quarterback (Adam Froman) and running back (Bilal Powell) for Saturday's game at Syracuse. The Cardinals have yet to name Froman's back-up but have three potential options in senior Justin Burke, sophomore Will Stein and wildcat specialist Dominique Brown. Powell meanwhile just went over the 1,000-yard mark and was averaging 6.97 ypc. His replacements are however talented and experienced. Junior Victor Anderson was the team's leading rusher last year and ran for over 1,000 yards as a freshman. Jeremy Wright and Blayne Donnell are also expected to get some carries. Overall, the injuries certainly don't help but
we don't project much of a decline in production
as the Cardinals will likely stick to the ground game. The bigger issue for Louisville is winning a conference game on the road, something they haven't done in their last
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Tags:
Louisville Cardinals
Syracuse Orange
Adam Froman
Big East
College Football
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Auburn under the total against Chattanooga worth a look
11.04.2010 01:17 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chattanooga at Auburn -41 O/U 74.5
Recommendation: Under
Auburn plays host to FCS UT-Chattanooga this weekend. The Tigers are 41-point favorites (5Dimes) with a total of 74.5. If you follow Jeff Sagarin's Ratings, the Mocs check in at 108th – just behind Troy and Utah State and ahead of Indiana and Colorado State. UTC averages 32.6 ppg and has not played an FBS team this season. Against their previous three FBS opponents (Alabama, Florida State and Oklahoma) the scores were 45-0, 57-2 and 47-6 – note that the program has made big strides in the win department since 2008’s 1-11 campaign. Last week, they had a five-game winning streak snapped and
don't sound all too enthused
about playing such a tough opponent this late in the season.
Auburn meanwhile has yet to have a bye week and faced BCS teams in six of its last seven contests. With Georgia on deck, War Eagle will likely do
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Tags:
Auburn Tigers
SEC
Andrew Lange
College Football
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Texas Tech struggles stem from linemen losses
11.04.2010 12:24 PM
Printer Friendly
Missouri -4 at Texas Tech O/U 58.5
Here is a perfect example of why offensive and defensive linemen are so important. Texas Tech returned practically every skill position player from last year's squad, including two proven quarterbacks. On paper, even with the coaching change, it looked like another 8- or 9-win season in Lubbock, but as
this beat writer points out
, the losses along both lines are one of the main culprits in Tech's disappointing 4-4 record.
BTS: Aside from injuries, can you put your finger on why this Texas Tech team has struggled so far this season?
WILLIAMS: The biggest reason – and the reason I thought they’d be a 7-5, 8-4 team this year – was the personnel they lost in both lines. The offensive line lost three starters, and left guard Lonnie Edwards is the only starter back in the same position as last year. A lot of
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Tommy Tuberville
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CFB Handicapping: Boise State as a moderate home favorite
11.04.2010 09:42 AM
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Hawaii at Boise State -21 O/U 66
We posted a blog a few weeks back about
Boise State's spread success when laying "big" points
at home. Dating back to 2003, the Broncos are an impressive 10-6 ATS when laying 31 points or more. Boise's current pointspread run on the Smurf Turf currently reads 46-23, 67%. But this weekend against Hawaii marks only the ninth time since 2005, Boise is favored by 21 or less. As seen in the chart below, Boise is 3-5 ATS when laying less than three touchdowns. Keep in mind there were a couple games strategically lined at -21.5 that missed the cut but our chart is not necessarily meant to point out a specific profile or trend but instead focus on the fact that despite the "never bet against Boise at home" mantra that a lot of folks subscribe to, opposing road teams have covered games in Bronco Stadium. Sometimes all it takes is a
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Hawaii Warriors
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College Football Betting Tips: Power Offenses
11.04.2010 08:49 AM
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Submitted by
A few weeks ago I posted a blog breaking down the nation’s strongest, most balanced offensive teams. I used the guideline of teams that run for at least 175 yards per game and pass for at least 200 yards per game. The chart below updates the teams, stats and I’ve added yards per pass attempt to the stat profiles. If you would like to review some guidelines on how to use these numbers and teams for success,
check out my blog on October 23rd
and know that since those games, the teams below have gone a combined 16-12 ATS but just 3-4 ATS as underdog. Teams that met these guidelines but have fallen below in one of the categories the past two games include: Auburn, Cincinnati and San Diego State. Teams that have improved their stat profiles to move into this select group include: Baylor, UAB and Virginia Tech. Watch all the team’s performances in the weeks ahead and note increase or decrease in production against conference
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Betting Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa State Cyclones
11.04.2010 08:07 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Nebraska -18 at Iowa State O/U 58
Recommendation: Under
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
The total in this contest hasn't moved at all this week and the reason is simple; Nebraska can score, but they can also play defense and Iowa State can't stop anyone but is also prone to low offensive outputs when asked to step up in class. The one thing that stands out is that this is the same total as Nebraska's game against Oklahoma State. The end result was a 92-point track meet, but I'm not so sure we'll see that here.
To me Iowa State has two games that skew their totals. In early October, the Cyclones beat Texas Tech 52-38 and then turned around and got hammered by Utah 68-27. Against Tech, there were 42 points scored in the fourth quarter – the margin was perfect for trading scores late in the game. The following week against the Utes, Iowa State was simply spent (allowed 41 first half points) and it led to a blowout. You can’t ignore those games but I lean more toward those efforts
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CFB Handicapping: Media hypes up Utah offensive game plan
11.04.2010 07:01 AM
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TCU -4.5 at Utah O/U 51
Here is an article with a theme that suggests that
Utah will try to open up the playbook
against TCU. But if you read the entire article, especially the final quote by Utes offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick, it doesn't sounds as if there are going to be any radical changes to the offense outside of preparing to use the entire playbook if need be. What stands out is that Utah openly stated that it was in survive-and-advance mode against Air Force and purposely kept things vanilla in order to keep the Falcons' offense off the field. This is a classic example of the media trying to create an interesting angle that really isn't there. The one thing we can gain from the article though is that from a handicapping perspective, Utah's results/stats against Air Force probably don't mean as much considering what we now know about their game
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Virginia Tech gets help from Iowa on how to stop Georgia Tech option
11.04.2010 06:25 AM
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Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech -12.5 O/U 56
Interesting article about how during the offseason Virginia Tech
sought out the guidance of Iowa
on how to stop Georgia Tech's option attack. The Yellow Jackets put up 588 rushing yards in the last two meetings against the Hokies, the last effort of with resulted in a 28-23 GT victory. Iowa meanwhile held Georgia Tech to only nine first downs as the Hawkeyes won 24-14 in the Orange Bowl. During the summer, Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster and his fellow coaches traveled to Iowa City and spent three days learning why Iowa was so successful.
“It’s two good defensive staffs talking with each other,” Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer said earlier this week. “Maybe you could get some ideas that can work.”
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Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes
11.03.2010 02:21 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
TCU -4.5 at Utah O/U 51
Recommendation: Under
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT
The possibility for a spot in the BCS Championship game is at stake here for these teams but more so for TCU which sits in excellent position right now at #3 in the country. Rice-Eccles Stadium where Utah is 21-0 straight up since September 2007 will be an extremely difficult venue for the Horned Frogs to emerge victorious from. Though seldom in this role, the Utes have thrived as a home underdog posting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark the last 10+ years. They’ve also had a solid recent history against TCU defeating them in three of the past four seasons. The exception was last year’s 55-24 thrashing in Fort Worth where they were outgained 549 yards to 284.
That embarrassment figures to provide Utah with a huge revenge motive which adds to their situational and technical assets in this contest. I’ll add in one more external angle here which should help Utah and that is the game planning of head coach Kyle
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Maryland at Miami: Betting market reacts to Harris injury
11.03.2010 01:52 PM
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Maryland at Miami -7.5 O/U 46
The Miami Hurricanes opened as a 12.5-point home favorite over Maryland but when it was announced that quarterback Jacory Harris was questionable and then doubtful, the betting market reacted. The Terrapins have seen all of the action as the line progression went -12.5, -12, -11, -10.5, -10, -9, -8.5, -8 and now to its current number of -7.5 at CRIS. True freshman Stephen Morris will start in Harris' spot. Morris finished 9-of-22 for 162 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in last week's loss to Virginia.
“I’m not a big fan of Miami to begin with, but this line move is a bit baffling, said Sportsmemo Handicapper Tim Trushel. “With Harris’ injury last week, it is not as if the Hurricanes weren’t expecting/preparing to play without him. Like I said, I’m not really sure why this line has moved so much.”
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