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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

04.30.2014     08:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta (Harang) at Miami (Eovaldi) +100 O/U 7
Recommendation: Miami


Just about every advanced metric stat in existence tells us very clearly that Aaron Harang’s MLB leading ERA is just a mirage; a hurler primed to return to earth following an exceptional April.  Harang has held opponents to a .143 batting average and his .409 opponents OPS is the best in baseball.  He’s the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez back in 1997 to allow a single run or less while lasting six full innings or more in each of his first five starts.  And Aaron Harang is no Pedro Martinez!

The advanced metric stats show us how lucky Harang has been.  Opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is just .200, an unsustainable number.  Harang has an 89% strand rate, another unsustainable number.  His xFIP of 3.77 is a looooong way off from his 0.85 ERA.  And he’s put up those stats despite the lowest ground ball rate of his career, in large part Read more


Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins Teddy Covers




The man behind online poker's Black Friday

04.29.2014     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A few years ago we blogged about Daniel Tzvetkoff who was played a big role in online poker's infamous Black Friday. The dude's back story is pretty incredible and not surprising someone wrote a book about it. You can almost guarantee it will at some point be made into a move. Hopefully it'll be more watchable than the absolutely awful Runner, Runner.


Faced with the prospect of up to 76 years in jail for money laundering, bank fraud and conspiracy charges, Tzvektoff became an informant whose testimony led directly to Black Friday - the day online gambling in the US was shut down.






Tags: Poker




NHL Playoffs Handicapper Free Play: Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings

04.22.2014     07:39 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boston -140 at Detroit O/U 5
Recommendation: Boston


Boston heads to Detroit tonight with the series knotted up at one game apiece. The Bruins played their typical grind it out game throughout Game 1, but couldn't seem to break through offensively.  It took a great individual effort from Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk late in the third period to get the Red Wings the 1-0 win.  Game 2 was much different as Boston was able to take advantage of its chances and put some goals on the board.  They went to the net hard and they were rewarded.  They didn't deviate from their plan and they stifled Detroit's offense once again allowing just one goal in a 4-1 win. Detroit's home ice advantage has been virtually nonexistent the past two seasons as they were a meager 18-13-10 at Joe Louis this regular season and just 4-4 over the past two postseason. Boston owned the best road record in the Eastern Conference this season at 23-12-6 and in the past three postseason the Bruins are 6-3 away from home in the first round.  Going into Detroit will be just another day at the job for the big bad Bruins.  Boston has the confidence and swagger back Read more


Tags: NHL Boston Bruins Detroit Red Wings Sammy P




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's

04.21.2014     08:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.

This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.

Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra:  “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious."  LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray Read more


Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Blue Jay at Cleveland Indians

04.18.2014     08:45 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Toronto (Hutchinson) at Cleveland (Masterson) -140 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


When the mechanics of a bigger, taller pitch go awry, it can become a very difficult process of getting back to "normal." Cleveland's Justin Masterson isn't "right" and as a result his velocity is way down, his control is out of whack, and he's gotten pounded around in back-to-back starts (10 earned runs). I've bet a ton of Masterson's games over the last few seasons – on, against, under, and over – and these swoons of good and bad pitching have a tendency to go from extended stretches. Toronto's Drew Hutchinson has some upside with strong performances against Tampa and Baltimore. In looking at the young right-hander's numbers, we see the traditional right/lefty splits. Notice that his lone bad start of the season (3.1 IP, 6 ERs) came in New York against the Yankees who can stack the lineup with a slew of left-handed bats. Cleveland has that ability as well so I expect the Read more


Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels

04.11.2014     07:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (Gee) at LA Angels (Skaggs) -160 O/U 8
Recommendation: Los Angeles


Did you notice the move towards LA's Tyler Skaggs off of the opener? That is the betting markets telling you just how much potential this kid has. A few more starts like what we saw out of Skaggs vs. Houston (8 IP 4 hits, 0 ERs) and enter the customary -175 and above price tag at home. We're not there yet and it was only one start against a poor hitting team, but at home vs. the Mets is another opportunity for him to thrive. Dillon Gee pitched well the back half of 2013 with a 2.77 ERA his last 11 starts. It coincided with an up-tick in velocity. That velocity has eluded him the first two starts of 2014 with his average fastball below 90 mph. Gee isn't a hard thrower to begin with but without being at the top of his game, it will be difficult facing an American League team on the road. I like that the Angels have placed more emphasis on defense and utilizing the shift more. And I also like the advantage LA Read more


Tags: MLB New York Mets Los Angeles Angels Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling: For a third straight year the Minnesota Twins starting pitching is awful

04.10.2014     12:39 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With so many seemingly "fringe" starters not only surviving but thriving in MLB, it is very apparent Minnesota is doing something wrong. It could be just bad luck (or poor decisions) in terms of draft picks and acquisitions but it also could be some sort of organizational philosophy. Heading into today, Minnesota's starters had the worse ERA in the American League at 6.43. And a few hours ago, Mike Pelfrey allowed six earned runs in five innings meaning that 6.43 is headed way north. Newly acquired Ricky Nolasco has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings. Phil Hughes remains a complete mess – a guy who for whatever reason decided to scrap his slider which many metrics pointed to as being his best pitch. Kevin Correria was torched in his first start (5.2 IP, 6 ERs). And Kyle Gibson has upside but still a ways from being a consistent performer. Because starting pitching accounts for a vast majority of game prices, the Twins are going to be big underdogs for much of the campaign. But as a bettor, do you trust any of those guys to go out and give you 6 innings and allowed 3 runs or Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins




NHL Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers

04.08.2014     08:23 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia -165 at Florida O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Under


As we come upon the last 6 days of the NHL regular season, most of the "must win" teams are priced heavily with juice.  I don't mind laying juice now and then as long as I feel I'm getting value.  As most of my clients and followers know, I play the majority of my NHL totals Under and last night all three games easily cashed with a combined five goals scored in those games!  Hockey is a difficult sport for the books since the totals can really only be one of three choices 5, 5.5, or 6.  The amount of juice they attach to the total is where they try and make up for their deficiencies, but even then we find lots of value in say taking the Under 5.5 -145 instead of Under 5 +110.  Five is such a key number that getting that hook when you have the Under is sometimes worth .50 to .60 cents in my opinion.  Most professional handicappers would scoff at laying that kind of juice on a total, but in the NHL it is how I've grinded out profits for years.

With all that being said, we find lots of value in tonight's Flyers and Panthers Under.  -125 is Read more


Tags: NHL Philadelphia Flyers Florida Panthers Sammy P




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: The Indiana Pacers' historic ATS slide

04.07.2014     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Indiana Pacers have been a remarkable pointspread story this year, worthy of a Wiseguy Report to examine in detail what has happened and why.  To be thorough, this story starts last year when the Pacers flexed their collective muscles, developing into a title contender for the first time in a decade.  

Indiana was good, not great, in the 2012-13 regular season.  They won 49 games, tied for the third best record in the (much) weaker of the two conferences.  Here’s an excerpt of what I wrote about the Pacers heading into the playoffs last year:

“A month ago, I would have listed the Pacers as Miami’s toughest Eastern Conference potential test.  Indiana’s defensive numbers rank among the best in the NBA, and low post behemoth Roy Hibbert is a very tough matchup for the Heat in the paint.  Indiana beat Miami twice during the regular season, and the Pacers were the last team to give the Heat real trouble in the playoffs last year, taking a 2-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference semi’s before the Heat closed out the series with three straight wins.

But the Pacers have not Read more


Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

04.06.2014     07:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Diego (Kennedy) at Miami (Eovaldi) -120 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under


Nathan Eovaldi has the tools to be a better than average National League starter. His velocity sits in the mid-90's and everything about his progression over the last few years suggests he's sitting on a solid season. In Eovaldi's first start he looked the part as he fanned six and allowed only two runs in a win over Colorado. Ian Kennedy made the wise choice in going to San Diego where he should be able to get by with marginal stuff and guts. But in his first start of the season I noticed that his velocity was way up from last year with his average fastball was around 92. Kennedy knows how to pitch and that extra mph can make a huge difference, especially when throw off of his off-speed stuff. As mentioned in yesterday's Free Play winner (SD/MIA under), the Padres have been offensively inept with only 8 runs in five games. Two low profile yet effective starters and the early start getaway day environment points us Read more


Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Miami Marlins Andrew Lange



17

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21


 
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